8 Rounds Left
DenieD
Ken
With just 8 round left in season 31 and every round getting progressively more important than the last, we will be looking at the fixtures remaining and the impact of those games on the ladder positions.
These are the two previous ladders from season 29 and 30 at the conclusion of the H&A season:
Code:
Team P W L D Pen For Agnst % Pts Streak L5 Change GB Chase
ySin City Swamprats 17 12 5 - - 1815 1607 112.94 48 2W WWLWW - Ldr -
xFighting Furies 17 11 6 - - 1627 1567 103.83 44 3L WWLLL - -1 -
xMount Buller Demons 17 10 7 - - 1862 1644 113.26 40 2W WWLWW +1 -2 -
xRoys FFC 17 10 7 - - 1806 1708 105.74 40 1L LLWWL -1 -2 -
xLas Vegas Bears 17 11 6 - 4 1688 1689 99.94 40 1W WWWLW +1 -2 -
xEast Side Hawks 17 9 8 - - 1765 1712 103.10 36 3W WLWWW +1 -3 -
xDragons FFC 17 9 8 - - 1707 1666 102.46 36 2L LLWLL -2 -3 -
xWest Coast Wonders 17 7 10 - - 1768 1768 100.00 28 1W WWWLW +1 -5 Ldr
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wConey Island Warriors 17 7 10 - - 1712 1728 99.07 28 2W LLLWW -1 -5 -
wGold City Royals 17 6 11 - - 1452 1722 84.32 24 3L LWLLL - -6.5 -1
wBaghdad Bombers 17 5 11 1 - 1550 1785 86.83 22 8L LLLLL - -6.5 -1.5
zGumbies FFC 17 4 12 1 - 1513 1669 90.65 18 1L LLWWL - -7.5 -2.5
w - eliminated from finals contention
x - clinched finals berth
y - clinched minor premiership
z - clinched wooden spoon
Code:
Team P W L D Pen For Agnst % Pts Streak L5 Change GB Chase
yGold City Royals 16 12 4 - - 1633 1399 116.73 48 3W WLWWW 1 Ldr -
xFighting Furies 16 11 5 - - 1598 1340 119.25 44 3W LLWWW 2 -1 -
xSin City Swamprats 16 10 6 - - 1499 1361 110.14 40 3L LWLLL 3 -2 -
xRoys FFC 16 10 6 - - 1505 1535 98.05 40 2W LWLWW 4 -2.5 -
xGumbies FFC 16 9 7 - 2 1538 1516 101.45 34 1L WWLWL 5 -3.5 -
xBaghdad Bombers 16 8 8 - - 1569 1489 105.37 32 1W WLWLW 7 -4 -
xDragons FFC 16 8 8 - - 1515 1486 101.95 32 1L WLLWL 6 -4 -
xLas Vegas Bears 16 7 9 - - 1448 1557 93.00 28 2L WLWLL 8 -5.5 Ldr
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wMount Buller Demons 16 6 10 - - 1333 1514 88.04 24 2W LLLWW 9 -6.5 -1
wConey Island Warriors 16 6 10 - 2 1606 1650 97.33 22 1W LWLLW 11 -6.5 -1.5
wEast Side Hawks 16 5 11 - - 1462 1718 85.10 20 2L LWWLL 10 -7.5 -2
zWest Coast Wonders 16 4 12 - - 1510 1651 91.46 16 2L LWWLL 12 -8.5 -3
w - eliminated from finals contention
x - clinched finals berth
y - clinched minor premiership
z - clinched wooden spoon
Based on these previous ladders with more emphasis on season 29 as it had the same 17 round season as season 31, we can predict the wins needed to qualify for finals. For 1st place your team will likely need to win 12 games. For top 4 your team needs 10 wins and likely a good percentage as well. For top 8 your team needs 7 wins and good percentage.
Current season 31 Ladder:
Season 31 Ladder after Round Nine
Code:
Team P W L D Pen For Agnst % Pts Streak L5 Change GB Chase
Coney Island Warriors 9 7 2 - - 888 817 108.69 28 1W LWWLW - Ldr -
Baghdad Bombers 9 6 3 - - 904 836 108.13 24 2W LWLWW +1 -1 -
West Coast Wonders 9 5 3 1 - 882 829 106.39 22 1L DWWWL -1 -1.5 -
Mount Buller Demons 9 5 4 - - 1007 811 124.17 20 1W LLWLW +1 -2 -
Roys FFC 9 5 4 - - 835 832 100.36 20 2W WLLWW +3 -2 -
Sin City Swamprats 9 4 4 1 - 852 926 92.01 18 2L DWWLL -2 -2.5 -
Gold City Royals 9 4 5 - - 874 845 103.43 16 2W WLLWW +2 -3 -
Dragons FFC 9 4 5 - - 852 843 101.07 16 3L WWLLL -2 -3 Ldr
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Las Vegas Bears 9 4 5 - - 911 953 95.59 16 1L LWLWL -2 -3 -
Gumbies FFC 9 4 5 - - 841 904 93.03 16 1W WLWLW - -3 -
East Side Hawks 9 3 6 - - 798 959 83.21 12 1L LLLWL - -4 -1
Fighting Furies 9 2 7 - - 897 986 90.97 8 2L WLWLL - -5 -2
*Thanks to Ljp86 for providing the ladders
*Bold indicates currently placed in that position
Team Analysis
1st Warriors 7-2
Sitting on top of the ladder for the last 8 rounds has been the Warriors. They have had some rough patches along the way losing to the Gumbies and Roys, but overall they are in good condition leading into the finals. Just one more win and they can safely say that they are playing finals in season 31. It has been a tough road after just missing out in the last 2 seasons but they look to be in winning form and are hungry for finals success.
Their next two games against the demons and dragons look challenging and will potentially shape the 8. Win both and a top 4 spot is all but sealed. Lose both and they will end up back in the pack. Winnable games against the Furies and Bears should guarantee their spot in the finals if other games don't go their way. The final match against the Bombers could decide who finishes top as they are right behind the Warriors currently on the ladder.
Prediction: 1st
2nd Bombers 6-3
A close win against the Dragons saw them move up to second place and remain just one win behind top spot. The next three games against the Bears, Furies and Hawks on paper look to be easy wins and could very easily see the Bombers move into top spot as the Warriors do not have as easy a run. Their last 3 games are all at home and they will need their fans cheering as they are all against current top 8 teams. Round 13 looms as a blockbuster against the Wonders to confirm a top 4 spot for either team.
Prediction: 2nd
3rd Wonders 5-3-1
Falling to the Roys is a big blow to the Wonders top 4 aspirations as now they need to win 5 of their last 8 games to guarantee their spot. This will be a difficult task as they come up against all of their other top 4 rivals (Demons, Bombers, Warriors) in away games. Lose all three of those and say goodbye to a top 4 finish. Their last two games at home will be very important in deciding their spot in the 8, playing fellow top 8 teams in the Swamprats and Dragons. A very difficult run home for the Wonders, but I'm sure they are up for the challenge.
Prediction: 4th
4th Demons 5-4
Another huge win for them on the weekend sees the Demons with a massive percentage that will definitely help them qualify for finals. Just two more wins should see them into another finals campaign, but the road is difficult as their next five are against top 8 opponents. It isn't all doom and gloom as their last 3 should be fairly winnable games, so all they need to do is win 2-3 of their next 5 and top 4 is still very much on the table. It also helps that their games against the Warriors and Wonders are at home.
Prediction: 3rd
5th Roys 5-4
Wins against the Warriors (1st) and Wonders (3rd) in consecutive weeks has labeled the Roys as the in-form team in the competition. A middling fixture with games against top teams and bottom teams should be an interesting time for tipsters as Roys tend to slip up against weaker opponents. Their last two games are away on the road and Roys will be hoping to not have to travel again in the first week of the finals.
Prediction: 5th
6th Swamprats 4-4-1
Losing to the Warriors was expected but now it makes a top 4 finish all the more difficult. An away game against an in-form Roys team will be another challenging game, but in order to qualify for finals you need to beat the tough teams. Lose the next two games against difficult opposition and the Swamprats will be out of the 8 and desperately trying to win three of the last six. An important fortnight for them ahead as winning just one of those games will go a long way to helping them cement a top 8 spot.
Prediction: 7th
7th Royals 4-5
The reigning premiers have had a rough start to the season losing more times than they win, but seem to finally be back in form with back-to-back wins against Dragons and Bears. A difficult road ahead with games against 5 of the top 6 still to come but luckily most of them are at home. If they can keep this form going through the Furies and Wonders games they should finish reasonably well.
Prediction: 6th
8th Dragons 4-5
Three consecutive loses to the Gumbies, Royals and Bombers has caused the Dragons to take a tumble down the ladder. With difficult games against the Warriors, Wonders, Demons and Roys to come this may be one of the last times they feature in the top 8. Hawks this week is simply a must win for the Dragons if they are to remain in the top 8. Three away games on the road to end the season will be a tough task for the Dragons if they are still in finals calculations by then.
Prediction: 8th
9th Bears 4-5
Losing to the Royals is a big blow to the Bears finals aspirations. Now needing to win 4 of their last 8 games with 6 of them against top 8 teams is going to be difficult. You would pencil in wins against the Furies and Hawks but they are both away making them slightly more challenging. It will be a tough road for the Bears and this weeks game against the Bombers could seal their fate as a bottom 4 team.
Prediction: 9th
10th Gumbies 4-5
Winning against the Furies is not something to celebrate but it is a win and the Gumbies are now within striking distance of the top 8. A difficult fortnight will see the Gumbies travel to face 3rd place Wonders then defend home base against the in-form Roys. Lose both and they are right back to being cellar dwellers, but Gumbies have surprised teams before and if they win just one of those two games the top 8 would be calling. Three of their last 4 games are against top 4 teams, so in order to play finals they have to beat some of the top dogs.
Prediction: 10th
11th Hawks 3-6
The Hawks look in bad shape after given a hiding from the Demons and their remaining fixtures don't bring much hope for change. It is do or die this week against the Dragons as losing that game will almost certainly see the Hawks finish in the bottom 4. The Furies game in round 13 might possibly be the worst game ever and it hasn't even happened yet. At least it is at home so the East Side fans might have something to cheer about if they win.
Prediction: 11th
12th Furies 2-7
Things have took a turn for the worst at the Furies with the wooden spoon beckoning as they only record 2 wins so far. They can no longer finish 1st and the slight hope of top 4 is quickly fading as winning all their remaining games would still probably make them miss out as percentage will be important. Difficult games against the reigning premiers and three of the top 4 teams means it is highly likely the Furies will finish last and TJASTA can finally have something to eat his cereal with.
Prediction: 12th