Mercy Seat
Norm Smith Medallist
Can someone tell me who I'm supporting this weekend for this 3% chance?
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AFLW 2024 - Round 9 - Indigenous Round - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Adelaide and Carlton (the latter is so unlikely I wouldn't bother).Can someone tell me who I'm supporting this weekend for this 3% chance?
Can someone tell me who I'm supporting this weekend for this 3% chance?
Decent results for us so far this round. Simulation suggests we should be cheering Melbourne vs the Saints.. apparently because the Dees have a pretty easy last two rounds (Brisbane at home, Collingwood) so they'll likely make finals regardless of this weeks' result.
Unfortunately a lot seems to be riding on the Ess vs GC game at Metricon next week. Very narrow path to finals if Bombres win that. Let's hope Ablett gets up.
Interesting that the simulation prefers Melbourne, I liked the idea of Melbourne losing which would mean we were hoping Saints to drop both Richmond and North, which seemed more likely than Melbourne losing to both Brisbane and Collingwood. If Melbourne win and beat Brisbane, we are then relying on Bombers to lose to either Freo or GC which seems unlikely. Having Saints beat Melbourne and then Saints losing to Tigers and North and not having to worry about the Bomber's losing to one of those two seemed better to me, but I guess the simulation doesn't lie. What does your simulation say about our chances from the current set of known results (assuming we keep winning)?
We really need Port to get up against Doggies too (or Port to fall in a heap and lose to pies, dogs and suns). Despite most results going our way so far, seems that 9th is the most realistic best case scenario, although 7th is still a possible , but unrealistic best case. There are some upsets that could go against us too, such as WC possibly getting up at home against Crows. 9th would at least mean we basically swapped pick 10 for pick 10 with Saints (ignoring the second round swaps).
Yep absolutely, and they have a better %. Gotta remember they were 51 points up against Adelaide, so they're still capable of playing good footy.Agree about Melbourne. If they have to lose two you'd think it's today and last round vs Collingwood, not next week vs Brisbane. Interestingly, if the Pies do upset Port today and bring them within range of us, it means they aren't out of the running themselves - would need to beat a weakened Geelong and a patchy Melbourne. Both possible. Still a lot of permutations but the probabilities collapse a bit more with each game.
Also, those Carlton fails two weeks in a row - imagine actually supporting them.
With yesterday's successful J-BOMB test, there are some critical results to come today that will determine our final outcome.
As such, we have now officially gone to DEFJOM-3 (a heightened state of jaeger alert). Stay tuned for more info on this crucial state of events as finals approach.
Not actually without a chance of those results falling our way.Assuming we win all remaining games we're at 7%.
Next week we need:
Port to beat Bulldogs (@ Mars)
GWS to beat WCE (@ Spotless)
GC to beat Ess (@ Metricon)
Following week we need
Adelaide to beat WCE (@ Subiaco)
Richmond to beat St K (@ MCG)
All are higher ranked on the ladder with the exception of GC beating Essendon.
If Ablett's available next week then GC are a chance. Brisbane beating Melbourne is another option to keep the season alive. Both would be upsets, but that's how the season has played out.Assuming we win all remaining games we're at 7%.
Next week we need:
Port to beat Bulldogs (@ Mars)
GWS to beat WCE (@ Spotless)
GC to beat Ess (@ Metricon)
Following week we need
Adelaide to beat WCE (@ Subiaco)
Richmond to beat St K (@ MCG)
All are higher ranked on the ladder with the exception of GC beating Essendon.
So you saying there's a chance? Double negative hurts my brain.Not actually without a chance of those results falling our way.
they are a different side with the son of god running aroundGold Coast couldn't beat an egg at the moment.
I'm saying its not out of the possibility that a chance exists that there is a likelyhood that those results go our way (all other things being equal in the grand scheme of things)So you saying there's a chance? Double negative hurts my brain.
Assuming we win all remaining games we're at 7%.
Next week we need:
Port to beat Bulldogs (@ Mars)
GWS to beat WCE (@ Spotless)
GC to beat Ess (@ Metricon)
Following week we need
Adelaide to beat WCE (@ Subiaco)
Richmond to beat St K (@ MCG)
All are higher ranked on the ladder with the exception of GC beating Essendon.
Brisbane and Giants next weekend. Go Fages! Go Cameron!Adelaide and Carlton (the latter is so unlikely I wouldn't bother).
Isn't it just Dees and WC to lose both games and we win both?Long odds to make it and 7% chance seems about right. To simplify it.
We need to win both our last games.
Essendon and St Kilda lose at least one each.
West Coast and Bulldogs must lose both of their last games.
Geez if only we had another one second in that GWS game with Burton's punch over for the behind.
Nah with our percentage those extra 2 points were meaningless. Smith keeping his head against Geelong on the other hand...Long odds to make it and 7% chance seems about right. To simplify it.
We need to win both our last games.
Essendon and St Kilda lose at least one each.
West Coast and Bulldogs must lose both of their last games.
Geez if only we had another one second in that GWS game with Burton's punch over for the behind.
If we win our last 2 games, we'll be on 46 points.Isn't it just Dees and WC to lose both games and we win both?