DenieD
Ken
The Run Home is back for season 34. We only have 5 rounds left with some teams only having 4 with the bye, and in a shortened season every game counts just that little bit more. After 8 rounds we have a couple of premiership contenders already putting their hands up and some other teams struggling at the bottom.
Code:
Team P W L D Pen For Agnst % Pts Streak L5 Change GB Chase
Gumbies FFC 8 6 2 - - 805 643 125.19 24 1W WWWLW +1 Ldr -
Baghdad Bombers 8 6 2 - - 701 688 101.89 24 3W LLWWW +1 - -
Mount Buller Demons 7 5 2 - - 823 668 123.20 20 2L WWWLL -2 -1 -
West Coast Wonders 8 4 4 - - 761 768 99.09 16 3W LLWWW +3 -2 -
Roys FFC 7 4 3 - - 694 714 97.20 16 2W LLLWW +3 -2 -
Gold City Royals 8 4 4 - - 765 833 91.84 16 3L WWLLL -2 -2 -
Sin City Swamprats 8 4 4 - 2 757 724 104.56 14 1L WLWWL -2 -2.5 -
East Side Phoenix 7 3 3 1 - 773 751 102.93 14 2W DWLWW +1 -2.5 Ldr
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Ophidian Old Boys FFC 7 3 4 - - 691 641 107.80 12 1L LLLWL -3 -3 -0.5
Dragons FFC 7 2 4 1 - 641 729 87.93 10 2L WDWLL - -3.5 -1
Fighting Furies 7 2 5 - - 657 708 92.80 8 4L WLLLL - -4 -1.5
Las Vegas Bears 7 2 5 - - 611 682 89.59 8 1W LWLLW +1 -4 -1.5
Coney Island Warriors 7 2 5 - - 599 729 82.17 8 1L LLWWL -1 -4 -1.5Let’s get into the teams:
Gumbies FFC
Fixtures:
Round 9: Dragons FFC @ House of Gumby
Round 10: Baghdad Bombers @ Abdu Prison
Round 11: BYE
Round 12: Gold City Royals @ House of Gumby
Round 13: Fighting Furies @ rfctigerarmy's hippodrome
Sitting pretty on top of the ladder is Gumbies FFC with 6 wins and 2 losses so far this season. Broken has happily already stated that Gumbies need to win just one more game to confirm finals (or Old Boys lose one more game) so thanks for that. A healthy percentage will make them feel very comfortable as we head towards the end of the season.
2 home games against 10th and 6th placed teams should be very winnable games. The road game against Baghdad Bombers is looming as a top of the ladder clash and will be the most difficult game by far. Depending on how Furies go in the next 4 weeks, the final game might end up being a walkover if Furies are out of finals contention.
Gumbies are likely to win at least 2 if not 3 games, putting them easily in the top 4 with the Bombers game being the possible decider of 1st and 2nd on the ladder.
Likely finish: Top 2
Baghdad Bombers
Fixtures:
Round 9: BYE
Round 10: Gumbies FFC @ Abdu Prison
Round 11: Gold City Royals @ The Golden Throne
Round 12: Fighting Furies @ Abdu Prison
Round 13: Las Vegas Bears @ The Stadium in the Sky
In 2nd place is Baghdad Bombers also sitting on 6 wins and 2 losses for the season. They have the bye this week to freshen up for their round 10 clash against the Gumbies. That will be their biggest challenge by far. After that they travel to 6th placed Gold City, then play current 11th and 12th placed teams in the last 2 weeks.
Bombers have a huge round 10 match-up that will be the game of the season (probably) then a very easy last 2 weeks. Baghdad should win the last 2 games to make top 4 easily, but finishing top will require them to beat Gumbies in a fortnight, as their percentage is much worse than Gumbies and Demons.
Likely finish: Top 3
Mount Buller Demons
Fixtures:
Round 9: Gold City Royals @ Snow Dome
Round 10: Fighting Furies @ rfctigerarmy’s hippodrome
Round 11: Las Vegas Bears @ Snow Dome
Round 12: Ophidian Old Boys @ Spotwood Oval
Round 13: Coney Island Warriors @ Snow Dome
Mount Buller dropped to 3rd place on the weekend after falling to Gumbies FFC in a top of the ladder clash. Good news is they have an extra game in hand over both of the teams above them as Demons have already had their bye. Mount Buller also has one of the easiest runs home out of any of the teams.
3 home games left against current 6th, 12th and 13th placed teams, and 2 away games against 11th and 9th place. Mount Buller will be confident they can win at least 4 if not all 5 of those games and come home strong. They’ll need to if they want to finish 1st. Luckily for the Demons, the top 2 teams will face off in round 10 so at least one will have to drop a game.
If Demons want a home qualifying final they’ll need to win all their home games and knock off at least one other team away from home. Based on their form this season I think they will do it.
Likely finish: Top 3
West Coast Wonders
Fixtures:
Round 9: Coney Island Warriors @ The Colosseum
Round 10: BYE
Round 11: Sin City Swamprats @ Underground Stadium
Round 12: East Side Phoenix @ The Colosseum
Round 13: Roys FFC @ Brunswick Junction Oval
Sitting in 4th is the Wonders with 4 wins and 4 losses so far this season. West Coast are on a 3 win streak after starting the season poorly and seem to be steamrolling their way into finals. damicky has done well to turn the team performances around after Moz left.
A home game against 13th placed Warriors awaits them this week before they have a rest in round 10. Then they play current 7th, 8th and 5th placed teams to end the season. The home game this week against last placed Coney Island should be penciled in already as a win. Their last 3 games are all 50/50 matches.
You would assume Wonders would win this week then at least one or even two more wins to end the season if they are lucky. They will probably need to win all of their remaining games to make top 4, but only need 2 good wins to make the 8.
Likely finish: Top 8
Roys FFC
Fixtures:
Round 9: Fighting Furies @ Brunswick Junction Oval
Round 10: Las Vegas Bears @ The Stadium in the Sky
Round 11: Ophidian Old Boys @ Brunswick Junction Oval
Round 12: Coney Island Warriors @ Van Cordlandt Park
Round 13: West Coast Wonders @ Brunswick Junction Oval
In 5th place is Roys FFC with 4 wins and 3 losses so far this season. The reigning premiers have been very inconsistent this season with 3 losses in a row, then 2 wins in the past fortnight against worthy opponents. Hopefully they can hit some good form at the end of the season to defend their premiership.
Roys have a relatively easy next 4 games with current 11th, 12th, 9th and 13th placed teams to come in the next month of qooty. Round 13 is a 50/50 game against fellow top 8 team the Wonders, but Roys have the slight edge playing at home. Roys have an extra game in hand over a number of other teams who haven’t yet had the bye, so there is some ground to be made back.
If Roys can find the form they had in their last finals series, they should easily roll through their next 4 games. If they do then top 4 is up for the taking with their final home game of the season. If not, then 2 wins should get them through to play finals again.
Likely finish: Top 6
Gold City Royals
Fixtures:
Round 9: Mount Buller Demons @ Snow Dome
Round 10: Dragons FFC @ The Golden Throne
Round 11: Baghdad Bombers @ The Golden Throne
Round 12: Gumbies FFC @ House of Gumby
Round 13: BYE
Royals have dropped down to 6th after falling to Roys FFC last weekend. Gold City is desperate to reclaim some of their early season form after losing their last 3 games in a row now. They have a very difficult run home so the team will have to get into form very quickly if they want to keep their spot in the top 8.
This week they travel to 3rd placed Demons in a challenging match-up where they will go in as underdogs. Then they have 2 home games against 10th placed Dragons and 2nd placed Bombers. The former is a likely victory, and the latter is another difficult game. Finally they play 1st placed Gumbies away from home in their final game for the season.
Royals will be watching the final round very closely if they only win one or two more games, as they will need other results to go their way to make finals. The bye in the last round would be a blessing if they make finals as it will help them freshen up for week 1 of the finals fixtures.
With the bye in the last round and games against all of the current top 3 teams, I don’t see how Royals make finals from here on current form.
Likely finish: Top 10
Sin City Swamprats
Fixtures:
Round 9: Ophidian Old Boys @ Spotswood Oval
Round 10: Coney Island Warriors @ Underground Stadium
Round 11: West Coast Wonders @ Underground Stadium
Round 12: BYE
Round 13: East Side Phoenix @ The Eyrie
In 7th place is Sin City Swamprats with 4 wins and 4 losses so far this season (and a 2 point penalty). Swamprats would be in 4th place if not for their early season penalty. That might really come back to bite them at the end of the season.
Sin City has 3 50/50 games to go with their round 10 game at home against 13th placed Warriors looking like an easy win. Swamprats are however the lowest team on the ladder to have played all 8 rounds so far. This will be some cause for concern, as they are likely to drop down lower after their bye in round 12.
Sin City likely needs to win both of their home games as well as one of their away games to make finals. It will be tough but it is possible.
Likely finish: Top 10
East Side Phoenix
Fixtures:
Round 9: Las Vegas Bears @ The Stadium in the Sky
Round 10: Ophidian Old Boys @ The Eyrie
Round 11: Coney Island Warriors @ Van Cordlandt Park
Round 12: West Coast Wonders @ The Colosseum
Round 13: Sin City Swamprats @ The Eyrie
Phoenix have just sneaked their way into the top 8 last weekend with a win over the Furies. They’ll need to keep winning if they want to remain there. Good news is they have a game in hand over the teams above them who still have their byes.
Round 9 and 11 matches against the 12th and 13th placed teams should be relatively simple to get the 4 points. After that they have 50/50 games at their home deck against Old Boys and Sin City. Their most difficult game will be the away game against West Coast Wonders in round 12.
It is a simple task for East Side: Beat the teams below them and they will make finals. If they lose against any of those teams in the next 3 weeks, then they will be forced to beat Wonders/Swamprats in the last 2 rounds.
Likely finish: Top 8
Ophidian Old Boys
Fixtures:
Round 9: Sin City Swamprats @ Spotswood Oval
Round 10: East Side Phoenix @ The Eyrie
Round 11: Roys FFC @ Brunswick Junction Oval
Round 12: Mount Buller Demons @ Spotswood Oval
Round 13: Dragons FFC @ Spotswood Oval
After starting the season so well, the Old Boys have lost 4 of their last 5 and are now outside of the top 8. Ophidian does have a good percentage and also has a game in hand over a lot of the teams above them who have yet to have their bye, so there are some positives.
The next fortnight will be interesting, with 2 50/50 games against 7th and 8th placed teams just above them on the ladder. Rounds 11 and 12 will be much more challenging with 5th placed Roys and 3rd placed Demons to overcome. In the final round they face 10th placed Dragons, which might end up being a match that decides who gets into the top 8.
If Ophidian can overcome their next 2 opponents then everything opens up for them. Lose one or two of those games then it will be a very difficult road to playing finals in their first season in the league.
Likely finish: Top 10
Dragons FFC
Fixtures:
Round 9: Gumbies FFC @ House of Gumby
Round 10: Gold City Royals @ The Golden Throne
Round 11: Fighting Furies @ Ljp86’s Lair
Round 12: Las Vegas Bears @ Ljp86’s Lair
Round 13: Ophidian Old Boys @ Spotswood Oval
In 10th place is Dragons FFC with 2 wins 4 losses and a draw. Dragons started to season ok, but are now on a 2 game losing streak and are desperate to turn that around if they want to make finals.
This weeks game against 1st place Gumbies on the road will be their most challenging game by far. After that they have to travel again to play 6th placed Royals, then they have 2 home games against teams below them on the ladder. Lastly, they play 9th placed Old Boys in what is looking to be a decisive match for which of those teams make top 8.
If Dragons lose these next 2 games (which is very likely) then they will have to win all 3 of their final games and hope teams above them win less than 3 games. It will be very difficult for them to make finals from here.
Likely finish: Bottom 4
Fighting Furies
Fixtures:
Round 9: Roys FFC @ Brunswick Junction Oval
Round 10: Mount Buller Demons @ rfctigerarmy’s hippodrome
Round 11: Dragons FFC @ Ljp86’s Lair
Round 12: Baghdad Bombers @ Adbu Prison
Round 13: Gumbies FFC @ rfctigerarmy’s hippodrome
Fighting Furies are now 1 and a half games outside of the top 8 after losing their last 4 games in a row. Worrying signs on and off the field as they also delisted Dominic03 this week. Is there anything the Furies can do to turn their club around?
It is a very difficult run home with away games against 5th placed Roys and 2nd placed Bombers, as well as home games against 3rd placed Demons and 1st placed Gumbies. The only 50/50 game they look to have a big chance in is the Round 11 Dragons game.
Furies look to have a horror run home to end season 34 and I can only see them winning one of their last 5 games.
Likely finish: Bottom 2
Las Vegas Bears
Fixtures:
Round 9: East Side Phoenix @ The Stadium in the Sky
Round 10: Roys FFC @ The Stadium in the Sky
Round 11: Mount Buller Demons @ Snow Dome
Round 12: Dragons FFC @ Ljp86’s Lair
Round 13: Baghdad Bombers @ The Stadium in the Sky
A great victory over top 8 team the Swamprats moved Las Vegas up to 12th and still in with a chance of making finals. If Bears had lost that one then the season probably would’ve been over, but now there is a sign of life.
The next fortnight will be very important with 2 home games against top 8 teams. Lose both and say goodbye to finals, but if Bears manage to win one or both of those games then finals are within their grasp. The Round 11 away game against Mount Buller Demons will be the most challenging game of their last 5, with the last round Bombers home game also looking very difficult.
Round 9 and 12 are two very gettable 50/50 games, but Bears will need to win those as well as 2 others if they want to make finals this season.
Likely finish: Bottom 4
Coney Island Warriors
Fixtures:
Round 9: West Coast Wonders @ The Colosseum
Round 10: Sin City Swamprats @ Underground Stadium
Round 11: East Side Phoenix @ Van Cordlandt Park
Round 12: Roys FFC @ Van Cordlandt Park
Round 13: Mount Buller Demons @ Snow Dome
Possibly the worst thing that could happen during a teams bye happened to Coney Island last weekend. They watched as the team below them won and the Warriors once again moved back to the bottom of the ladder. Carrying the worst percentage in the league, Coney Island will need a miracle from here if they want to make finals.
The fixtures don’t make it any easier for the Warriors as their last 5 games contain all current top 8 teams, with 2 of those games being away from home against 2 of the current top 4 teams. Like I said, it would be a miracle if Coney island make finals from here.
Warriors need to win 4 of their last 5 to make finals, and even then they might still need other results to got their way. Mount Buller away from home in the final round will be their most challenging game by far. I don’t see them winning any of these games, with only a small chance of upsetting Swamprats or Phoenix in rounds 10 and 11 because they are playing at home.
Likely finish: Wooden Spoon
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