The run home

[Au_Blue#24]

Its interesting to note that we've only had 4 home games and have 7 to come !!

The remaining games are:

round team
11 bullies
12 bris
13 roos
14 syd
15 carlton
16 port
17 hawks
18 stk
19 adel
20 geel
21 melb
22 freo

7 home games doest not neccessarily equate to 7 wins, but it will be close.

I think 7 or 8 out of the next 12 is realistic giving us 14/15 wins for the year giving us a good crack at top 4.

 

[Sera]

Doing some divination...

11 bullies - win
12 bris - lose
13 roos - win
14 syd - lose
15 carlton - win
16 port - lose
17 hawks - win
18 stk - win
19 adel - lose
20 geel - lose
21 melb - win
22 freo - ?

That will give us about 13-14 wins.

 

[Au_Blue#24]

Originally posted by Sera
Doing some divination...

19 adel - lose
22 freo - ?

That will give us about 13-14 wins.

we beat adelaide last year at home and we are a better side this year. No reason why we can stitch them up at home.

We also beat freo when it was there home game. Our lob sided crowd next time around will be a huge advantage for us and we should see another win.

 

[carlyp]

Originally posted by Sera
Doing some divination...

11 bullies - win
12 bris - lose
13 roos - win
14 syd - lose
15 carlton - win
16 port - lose
17 hawks - win
18 stk - win
19 adel - lose
20 geel - lose
21 melb - win
22 freo - ?

That will give us about 13-14 wins.

Hmmmm your preety much spot on except I think we can beat Adelaide,Geelong and Freo, so make that 16 wins. I think that would be enough to get us in the four and a home final. BUT I dont think you can really mark down certain games as wins or losses because you never know what is going to happen. We could get hit by injuries or have some terrible umpiring decisions get given to us. Which of the above games are HOME games and which are AWAY?

 

[Sera]

Originally posted by carlyp
Which of the above games are HOME games and which are AWAY?

The home games are all the odd numbered games and the Fremantle game.

 

[Sera]

Also we will need at LEAST 14 wins to make top 4 this year as it is much tighter at the top than last year.

 

[carlyp]

We can get 14-15 wins, 16 if we really hit our straps. Im not sure what will be enough for a top four position because as sera mentioned, its tight at the top this season. Even though we lost yesterday I still think we can threaten come finals time. I reckon we can make it to the preliminary final if we play well enough. I was impressed with the way we played against the bombers in that final last year. We really gave it our all and had we not run out of legs at the end of the game I think we could have pinched a win. This year, with that last game at home we will be alot more fresher come that first week of finals (if we get there!) and if we knuckle down in the second half of the season theres no reason why we cant grab a home final and really have a crack come September. We've had a preety good start for the year and now we just need to back it up with a good 2nd half!

 

[The Passenger]

I'd be very dissapointed if we didn't finish with 14 wins from here - we have got the talent and have got the start to the season to do so.

If we win all our games at Subi then we're cruising, which I think should really be our aim. Games we win away from home are a bonus and a confidence boost for whent he finals come around.

 

[carlyp]

Originally posted by Black Thunder
I'd be very dissapointed if we didn't finish with 14 wins from here - we have got the talent and have got the start to the season to do so.

If we win all our games at Subi then we're cruising, which I think should really be our aim. Games we win away from home are a bonus and a confidence boost for whent he finals come around.

Yep we've got a few AWAY wins now, we dont need one to get us into the eight like last year. Thats all done for now, we just need to get the wins on the board!

 

[The Passenger]

Originally posted by carlyp
Yep we've got a few AWAY wins now, we dont need one to get us into the eight like last year. Thats all done for now, we just need to get the wins on the board!

to be honest I'm not too worried about what happens this year if we make it to the finals this year (notice the word "if" but I think we'd have to have a massive form reversal from here).

Even if we made it into the top 4 were we'd want to be a real premiership team, If we got bundled out in straight sets I'd still be happy with the season. If at happened, at the time I'd be ****ed off as we all would, but I'd get over it and see the bigger picture.

I reckon our aim at the moment for 2003, should be to finish as high as we can on the ladder, then what happens in the final is a bonus. If we got into the final 4, then we'd start thinking flags and setting our aims in that direction.

Kinda hard to explain, but I think I got it through.

 

[carlyp]

Originally posted by Black Thunder
to be honest I'm not too worried about what happens this year if we make it to the finals this year (notice the word "if" but I think we'd have to have a massive form reversal from here).

Even if we made it into the top 4 were we'd want to be a real premiership team, If we got bundled out in straight sets I'd still be happy with the season. If at happened, at the time I'd be ****ed off as we all would, but I'd get over it and see the bigger picture.

I reckon our aim at the moment for 2003, should be to finish as high as we can on the ladder, then what happens in the final is a bonus. If we got into the final 4, then we'd start thinking flags and setting our aims in that direction.

Kinda hard to explain, but I think I got it through.

Uhuh I get you, your saying dont get too far ahead of ourselves. Your saying we shouldnt start thinking about Premierships when we havent got top four position just yet. I understand, theirs alot of merrit in that kind of thinking.

 

[The Passenger]

Originally posted by carlyp
Uhuh I get you, your saying dont get too far ahead of ourselves. Your saying we shouldnt start thinking about Premierships when we havent got top four position just yet. I understand, theirs alot of merrit in that kind of thinking.

yes that part of it, but even if we make the finals, I'm still not going to be too worried about what happens in the first couple of weeks.

Say we come second and lose two in a row. Sure it'll be disapointing, but in the big scheme of things finishing second in the minor premiership would be a success.

We haven't got much finals experience in the team so that will come with more.

To put it this way I'd rather us finish 2nd, lose 2 in a row and finish 6th, then come 7th and get the grand final and lose.

Because if we came 2nd I know then we are a genuine finals contedors team, and it just comes down to getting more compusure and experience come finals time.

But if we came 7th, then its not that big of an improvement, and it was just that we played some good footy come finals time to get us into the GF. 8th to 7th isn't that big of an improvement and that can easily turn into going backwards the season after.

 

[Goldenblue]

Rnd Team Result

11 Western Bulldogs Win
12 Brisbane Lions Loss
13 Kangaroos Win
14 Sydney Swans Win
15 Carlton Win
16 Port Power Loss
17 Hawthorn Win
18 St Kilda Loss
19 Adelaide Win
20 Geelong Win
21 Melbourne Win
22 Fremantle Win


I see a win loss ratio of 16-6

3rd or 4th spot.

 

[carlyp]

The other nice thing is, that IF we play our best football every week we could win every one of those games actually! Now I know that isnt going to happen because no team can play at their best week in week out. But its nice to know that on any given day were capable of beating any team!

 

[Mead]

round team

Home
11 bullies (almost certain win)
13 roos (almost certain win)
15 carlton (almost certain win)
17 hawks (almost certain win)
21 melb (almost certain win)
19 adel (60/40 their way)
22 freo (60/40 our way)

Away
12 bris (almost certain loss)
16 port (almost certain loss)
14 syd (60/40 their way)
18 stk (60/40 our way)
20 geel (60/40 our way)


For my mind, thats about 5 games where we'd be almost dead certainties. 2 which we'll struggle to win, and another 5 where its tough to say with certainty- probably end up 3/5, or 2/5 from those. So yeah, 7-8 wins, which would give us 14-15 wins and a decent spot on the ladder.

 

[alstar562]

We can beat brisbane we did last year at home and we are a better team then last year, as well as that they have some injury concerns so i think we are a pretty good chance of knocking them off

 

[daddy_4_eyes]

Originally posted by alstar562
We can beat brisbane we did last year at home and we are a better team then last year, as well as that they have some injury concerns so i think we are a pretty good chance of knocking them off

Beating Brisbane at the GABBA is probably harder than beating WCE/Freo at Subi.

 

[RzrBlade]

Originally posted by daddy_4_eyes
Beating Brisbane at the GABBA is probably harder than beating WCE/Freo at Subi.

considering brisbane's playing list...yes. but on distance and travel, wce/freo are the most daunting teams to play interstate.

 

[steve_rat]

i dunno if we can beat brissie but we can sooo beat sydney, they aren't that good...

we should also be able to beat saints and geelong...

we should also win all the home games

the rest'll be tough, we seem to play all the melbourne teams at subi and all the interstate teams away.

anyway, hopefully we can do good. if we hit our straps...

i mean if we can't give bris/syd/port a good run or even beat them then we are not good enough yet...

steve rat

 

[RzrBlade]

Originally posted by steve_rat
i mean if we can't give bris/syd/port a good run or even beat them then we are not good enough yet...

yeah, i think along the same lines there. hopefully we can give a good showing. i predict we finish between 3-6th on the ladder.

i just can't see us holding onto second, but i severly hope i can be proved wrong. how mad would it be to get a home qualifying final, then if we win that a home preliminary final! that would make us odds to to make the GF!

 

[Kenny_01]

Sydney at the SCG are as tough as anyone.

 

[RzrBlade]

Originally posted by Kenny_01
Sydney at the SCG are as tough as anyone.

true, brisbane lost to them, but they were having an medicore run form-wise despite winning their games still.

if wce can be on their bll and negate the small ground then we would have a chance at winning.

 

[ozzult]

I reckon the hardest thing about winning at the SCG is adapting your game plan to the ground.

It's a shocker of an AFL venue, way too small.

 

[RzrBlade]

yeah as i said. i guess you gotta try and be more direct and down the corridor at the scg, because it is so short. and the wings are too fat, but we can work around that.

 

[Massie]

I'ld have to agree with Black Thunders way of thinking. Sundays result brought me back down to earth. I thought we'ld be bottom three last season and was pleasantly surprised. This season i would have been happy with anything better than eighth. Now i find myself making referance to finals and the big one.

I've had my reality check now and would like to see us do well, but also have more game time for our up and comers so we can have a serious assault at the flag next year.

1990 and '91 were so heart breaking that i don't think i could go through all that too often.