The Run home

[Piss Poor]

This is where were at.
What would likely happen so buckle yourselves in and take note.
Im going through all the contenders run homes and predicting what will happen= most likely
the teams likely for top 4 could be Us, Collingwood, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Sydney, Essendon.
That's it so here we go

Start with us

Rnd 13= Collingwood Away Loss
Rnd 14= Gold Coast Home WIN
Rnd 15= North Away WIN
Rnd 16 Swans= Home 50/50
Rnd 17= Adelaide Away 50/50
Rnd 18=Lions Home WIN
Rnd 19= Fremantle Away WIN
Rnd 20=Geelong Home WIN
Rnd 21=Port=Away WIN
Rnd 22=Collingwood=Home 50/50
Rnd 23= Hawks Away 50/50

That has us on 15 win with four 50/50 and 1 losses

Now lets look at Collingwood fixture

Rnd 13= West Coast WIN
Rnd 14= Fremantle WIN
Rnd 15= Carlton WIN
Rnd 16= Geelong WIN
Rnd 17= Hawks 50/50
Rnd 18= GWS Away WIN
Rnd 19= Saints WIN
Rnd 20= Swans Away WIN
Rnd 21= North WIN
Rnd 22= West Coast Away 50/50
Rnd 23 Essendon WIN
I have them with 18 wins with two 50/50, cant tip them to lose any.

Now Adelaide fixture
Rnd 13= North Away WIN
Rnd 14= Richmond Home WIN
Rnd 15= Port Away WIN
Rnd 16= GWS Away WIN
Rnd 17= West Coast Home 50/50
Rnd 18= Geelong Away 50/50
Rnd 19= Essendon Home 50/50
Rnd 20= Fremantle Home WIN
Rnd 21= Brisbane Away WIN
Rnd 22= Melbourne Away WIN
Rnd 23= Gold Coast Home WIN
I have them with 17 wins with 3 50/50

Now Hawks
Rnd 13 Bye Loss
Rnd 14 Carlton Away 50/50
Rnd 15 GWS Home WIN
Rnd 16 Bulldogs Away WIN
Rnd 17 Collingwood Away 50/50
Rnd 18 Essendon Away 50/50
Rnd 19 Geelong Home 50/50
Rnd 20 Port Home WIN
Rnd 21 Gold Coast Home WIN
Rnd 22 Swans Away 50/50
Rnd 23 West Coast Home 50/50

have them on 12 wins with 6 50/50s

I looked at the Sydney and Essendons fixture and they have difficult fixtures, so unlikely to be top 4, lucky if they get to 14 wins to be honest.

So there we have it. surprised about how hard Hawthorns fixture is.

our fixture is a lot harder then Collingwood and Adelaide's though.
Its likely that we will finish third therefore making it.
1st Prem Collingwood vs Hawthorn MCG
2nd Prem Adelaide vs West Coast AAMI

What are your thoughts, now knowing thia we sit back and hope for some upsets.

 

[ADF13]

I agree with your predicted results for WC , Coll and Adelaide, though i think the hawks will win 4-5 of those 50-50 games, so could potentially finish above us(though unlikely).
I would not be upset with the predicted finals matchups, as i like our chances against the crows in adelaide (certainly far easier then magpies at the G) and get a home prelim. As long as we can avoid a Collingwood prelim, im happy.

 

[Cuzz09]

1. Adelaide
2. Collingwood
3. Hawthorn
4. Sydney
5. West Coast (unless we can beat Adelaide, Hawks or Collingwood - If we can win one of those 3 I think we'll get top 4)

 

[Tiff]

I honestly think the Crows are going to run out of steam and drop a couple.

Not dissing their list, which is great, and the game plan is tight, but I just see them running out of steam a bit.

Next year they'll be scary

 

[Cuzz09]

I honestly think the Crows are going to run out of steam and drop a couple.

Not dissing their list, which is great, and the game plan is tight, but I just see them running out of steam a bit.

Next year they'll be scary

hope so but seriously their fixture is so good I think even with running out of steam they should beat most of their opponents.

 

[Tiff]

So now we can see the significance of this weeks game, which some others have been playing down.

Win this week and it throws a real spanner in the works.

 

[Piss Poor]

1. Adelaide
2. Collingwood
3. Hawthorn
4. Sydney
5. West Coast (unless we can beat Adelaide, Hawks or Collingwood - If we can win one of those 3 I think we'll get top 4)

Ok I will do Sydney's fixture then. Lets see

Rnd 13 Geelong Home 50/50
Rnd 14 GWS Home WIN
Rnd 15 Lions Home WIN
Rnd 16 West Coast Away 50/50
Rnd 17 Saints Home 50/50
Rnd 18 Gold Coast Away WIN
Rnd 19 Carlton Away 50/50
Rnd 20 Collingwood Home Loss
Rnd 21 Bulldogs Away WIN
Rnd 22 Hawks Home 50/50
Rnd 23 Geelong Away 50/50

that has them on 12 wins with 6 50/50

also on a side note I don't thin they will win against Geelong at skilled and this week too and the Hawks, Carlton, even Saints likely will get up giving its away, In my opinion their against the odds in all of their 50/50 matches.
They would have to really earn their top 4 spot if true which I don't see happening. That's a really tough fixture.

 

[SinkingDeeper]

I have us as better than even against Swans over here and we will beat Adelaide over there, as said before the crows are starting to run out of steam, saints very nearly ran them down on the weekend from a long way back, plus we have Glass, Schoey and Mckenzie to shut out Tippet and Walker. Scooter to negate Thompson and quite honestly they're very thin down back. Their "soft" draw will do them no favours come the business end of proceedings when Woosh has us primed for a September assault. That Hawks away game will be played in Tassie I'm assuming, the week after we play Collingwood... That's a loss in my estimation.

 

[Cuzz09]

I have us as better than even against Swans over here and we will beat Adelaide over there, as said before the crows are starting to run out of steam, saints very nearly ran them down on the weekend from a long way back, plus we have Glass, Schoey and Mckenzie to shut out Tippet and Walker. Scooter to negate Thompson and quite honestly they're very thin down back. Their "soft" draw will do them no favours come the business end of proceedings when Woosh has us primed for a September assault. That Hawks away game will be played in Tassie I'm assuming, the week after we play Collingwood... That's a loss in my estimation.

We play Hawthorn in round 23 @ the MCG.

 

[dajesmac]

We're hardly playing like top four material but if we get some key personnel back for the finals I think we'll make it all the way to the GF.

 

[SCHUMACHER]

Every time I do the ladder predictor we come in 5th It's always very tight tho, 1 or 2 games can and will make all the difference.

 

[FAIRANDBALANCED]

This is where were at.
What would likely happen so buckle yourselves in and take note.
Im going through all the contenders run homes and predicting what will happen= most likely
the teams likely for top 4 could be Us, Collingwood, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Sydney, Essendon.
That's it so here we go

Start with us

Rnd 13= Collingwood Away Loss
Rnd 14= Gold Coast Home WIN
Rnd 15= North Away WIN
Rnd 16 Swans= Home 50/50
Rnd 17= Adelaide Away 50/50
Rnd 18=Lions Home WIN
Rnd 19= Fremantle Away WIN
Rnd 20=Geelong Home WIN
Rnd 21=Port=Away WIN
Rnd 22=Collingwood=Home 50/50
Rnd 23= Hawks Away 50/50

That has us on 15 win with four 50/50 and 1 losses

Now lets look at Collingwood fixture

Rnd 13= West Coast WIN
Rnd 14= Fremantle WIN
Rnd 15= Carlton WIN
Rnd 16= Geelong WIN
Rnd 17= Hawks 50/50
Rnd 18= GWS Away WIN
Rnd 19= Saints WIN
Rnd 20= Swans Away WIN
Rnd 21= North WIN
Rnd 22= West Coast Away 50/50
Rnd 23 Essendon WIN
I have them with 18 wins with two 50/50, cant tip them to lose any.

Now Adelaide fixture
Rnd 13= North Away WIN
Rnd 14= Richmond Home WIN
Rnd 15= Port Away WIN
Rnd 16= GWS Away WIN
Rnd 17= West Coast Home 50/50
Rnd 18= Geelong Away 50/50
Rnd 19= Essendon Home 50/50
Rnd 20= Fremantle Home WIN
Rnd 21= Brisbane Away WIN
Rnd 22= Melbourne Away WIN
Rnd 23= Gold Coast Home WIN
I have them with 17 wins with 3 50/50

Now Hawks
Rnd 13 Bye Loss
Rnd 14 Carlton Away 50/50
Rnd 15 GWS Home WIN
Rnd 16 Bulldogs Away WIN
Rnd 17 Collingwood Away 50/50
Rnd 18 Essendon Away 50/50
Rnd 19 Geelong Home 50/50
Rnd 20 Port Home WIN
Rnd 21 Gold Coast Home WIN
Rnd 22 Swans Away 50/50
Rnd 23 West Coast Home 50/50

have them on 12 wins with 6 50/50s

I looked at the Sydney and Essendons fixture and they have difficult fixtures, so unlikely to be top 4, lucky if they get to 14 wins to be honest.

So there we have it. surprised about how hard Hawthorns fixture is.

our fixture is a lot harder then Collingwood and Adelaide's though.
Its likely that we will finish third therefore making it.
1st Prem Collingwood vs Hawthorn MCG
2nd Prem Adelaide vs West Coast AAMI

What are your thoughts, now knowing thia we sit back and hope for some upsets.

Surely you are taking the piss? Collingwood play Geelong, Carlton, Hawthorn, Essendon and West Coast twice. The reason you have perceived that you have a harder run home, is because you've had perhaps the easiest draw in the league for the first half of the season. Even considering this our run home is at least the equal to yours in terms of difficulty. We have 1 game, potentially 2 games against "easy beat opposition." That would be North and GWS. You have 4, GC, Lions, Port and North.

You've got us down to "win" against Sydney in Sydney (who are a top 4 contender) and yet you have yourselves down as a 50-50 despite it being at home. Perhpaps the reason you think our draw is easier is because you think we are a better team than yourselves? That is the only explanation I can come up with for some of your comments and predictions.
Geelong is definitely not a win for us, neither is this weeks game against you guys, we are minus our best player and one of the best players in the game.

If Collingwood finish in the top 2 this season, it will be a monumental acheivment, not even taking into account our injuries, but simply because our draw is so much harder than teams like West Coast, Adelaide and Sydney.

 

[ep2018]

Rnd 13= Collingwood Away Loss
It will be the usual ten goal loss against the Pies in Melbourne (apart from that final).

Rnd 14= Gold Coast Home WIN
Should be a win considering.

Rnd 15= North Away 50/50
Should be a win but we could also drop this one as our away form of late has been so so.

Rnd 16 Swans= Home 50/50
Swans are the last team to have defeated us at Subi. They will push us.

Rnd 17= Adelaide Away Loss
We're not good enough to beat a very impressive team like the Crows away from Perth.

Rnd 18=Lions Home WIN
They beat us away but we should win this as its at home.

Rnd 19= Fremantle Away 50/50
Derby? Always 50/50.

Rnd 20=Geelong Home 50/50
They are a decent team. Dont focus on their current form.

Rnd 21=Port=Away 50/50
Should be a win but they have the wood over us at AAMI.

Rnd 22=Collingwood=Home Loss
Will be a close game but I think we'll lose.

Rnd 23= Hawks Away Loss
Chances are, if we have a solidified finals position we'll send a B team over the Melbourne for this game.

I have us finishing 5th this year, playing Fremantle in an elimination final...............

 

[EagleShore]

yes fairandbalanced I think you're right - most of us on here believe that Collingwood have a better team at the moment than West Coast. Your pacier or burst midfielders (Swan, Sidebottom, & Daisy for instance) have more games under their belts than ours (Shuey, Selwood & Gaff), save for Kerr but he doesn't run and carry that much anymore like your guns do. This Saturday will hopefully be a cracker of a match, I for one cannot wait.

 

[FAIRANDBALANCED]

yes fairandbalanced I think you're right - most of us on here believe that Collingwood have a better team at the moment than West Coast. Your pacier or burst midfielders (Swan, Sidebottom, & Daisy for instance) have more games under their belts than ours (Shuey, Selwood & Gaff), save for Kerr but he doesn't run and carry that much anymore like your guns do. This Saturday will hopefully be a cracker of a match, I for one cannot wait.

I wouldn't undersell your team. I genuinely think there are 3 legit chances and one smokey for the flag. Pies, Hawks, Eagles are legit chances and the Cats are still a smokey. Cats could become legit with a big win on Friday night. Crows would only need a drop in form from Thompson or Dangerfield (or more defensive attention toward them) for them to drop off a lot.

If we didn't bring back Shaw and Pendles was still out I'd almost make you guys even money with us. For a few of our younger guys, they are thriving on the challenge, but other than the Crows game, they haven't really consistently produced, and I think they are suspect against a very good opposition. If we regain Shaw, Toovey and Reid then I think we are favorites, but I would still be expecting a close game and a great contest. I think in a game v Pies, Embley will be the one you miss the most. Good experience and knowledge of how to play the wings on the MCG.

 

[Patron]

We have a pretty tough run home. We Should still make top 4 but its not a guarantee. I reckon Essendon, Collingwood and Adelaide are going to be our biggest competitors in the next few years whilst we are pushing for premierships.

 

[mad_eagle]

Since the day the fixtures came out, we all knew our run home was beastly.

Going to be a hell of a second half, things are so even this year anything can happen.

Bring it on I say...

 

[The_Eagles]

Can't believe people have us coming 5th. WCE are certainties for top 4 and likely top 2

 

[Tiff]

Surely you are taking the piss? Collingwood play Geelong, Carlton, Hawthorn, Essendon and West Coast twice. The reason you have perceived that you have a harder run home, is because you've had perhaps the easiest draw in the league for the first half of the season. Even considering this our run home is at least the equal to yours in terms of difficulty. We have 1 game, potentially 2 games against "easy beat opposition." That would be North and GWS. You have 4, GC, Lions, Port and North.

You've got us down to "win" against Sydney in Sydney (who are a top 4 contender) and yet you have yourselves down as a 50-50 despite it being at home. Perhpaps the reason you think our draw is easier is because you think we are a better team than yourselves? That is the only explanation I can come up with for some of your comments and predictions.
Geelong is definitely not a win for us, neither is this weeks game against you guys, we are minus our best player and one of the best players in the game.

If Collingwood finish in the top 2 this season, it will be a monumental acheivment, not even taking into account our injuries, but simply because our draw is so much harder than teams like West Coast, Adelaide and Sydney.

Yeah, Collingwood is still floating on that unbeatable aura and it worries people. You're a very good side. Better than any other side. You know how to win games.

I see what you're saying though, people sheepishly tip their own teams 50/50 games, and write them off for games against you guys.

 

[Cuzz09]

Can't believe people have us coming 5th. WCE are certainties for top 4 and likely top 2

Very unlikely top 2.

Decent chance for top 4.

Need results to go our way to grab that 4th spot as I think Adelaide, Collingwood and Hawthorn's fixtures wrap up the top 3 spots.

Our draw is "beastly" as mad_eagle says.

If we can make top 4 with our run home we will be primed for an assault.

 

[ADF13]

I like our run home. Some difficult matchups sure, but will be a good reflection of where we sit in this competition. Personally though, i dont see it being as"beastly" as others have said, maybe im just overly optimistic but their is no way i see us finishing lower then 4th

 

[Sidebottom2Beams]

The last 11 games played by both Collingwood and West Coast

Two are against each other at home
West Coast play Gold Coast at home Collingwood GWS away.
Both play Geelong at home
West Coast play Sydney at home Collingwood plays them away.
Both play Freo at Home grounds
Both play North both in Melbourne.
Both play Hawthorn in Melbourne.
The last 3 for West Coast
Adelaide in Adelaide
Port and Brisbane
Collingwoods
Carlton, Essendon and Stkilda

I wouldn't say your fixture is alot harder.
Both teams should make the top 4 from here easily enough.

 

[flipper]

1 or 2 games can and will make all the difference.

like letting one go against brisbane

 

[sTeeL]

I havent seen much of Collingwood this year but we are down on last years form. Sure we have had a few step up but Le Cras and Kennedy are big big outs for us.

Thats why I would suggest they are in front of us atm.

 

[Gizza]

So now we can see the significance of this weeks game, which some others have been playing down.

Win this week and it throws a real spanner in the works.

People like the pull out things like "Premierships aren't won in June" etc. But geez when you at stuff like this, dropping games like against Brisbane really can be damn costly. I think probably just about our most important game will be against the Crows over there. Win that and we might finish above them, or at the very least make it more likely we will play them there again in the first final with the confidence of knowing we already did it once.