Opinion The run to September, our ladder position after the H&A season?.

[M Malice]

Finish to the H&A season >

Cats(H)- Extremely tough match up with Cats starting their finals run, toss of the coin IMO.
Suns(A)- Suns will be up for it but we should win semi comfortably.
Dockers(A)- Easy away kill, Dockers look shot.
Crows(H)- Tough again but the Gabba should tip it our way.
Magpies(A)- Away test against flag favourites, good time to have it with finals a few weeks away.
Saints(H)- Easy final home game and should win in a canter.

Ladder >

Magpies 60
Power 56
Lions 48
Demons 44
Cats 38
Saints 36
Bulldogs 36
Bombers 36
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Giants 36
Blues 34
Crows 32
Suns 32
Swans 30
Tigers 30(game in hand today v Eagles)
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Scenarios >
Win all 6 we finish 2nd.
Win 5 2nd-3rd highly likely.
Win 3-4 3rd-4th.
Win 2 or under 5th to 8th.

We have a good buffer on teams outside the top 4 so barring a complete implosion we will finish top 4 and with the Power having a tough run home we are still a chance for 2nd.

No below par players on defensive turnover please Fages, no closing games down early and fingers crossed a vital player doesn't get injured.

My tip >

We lose 1 maybe 2 games(Cats and/or Pies) on the way home and finish 3rd and have a trip to Adelaide in the first week of finals, eminently winnable IMO, which would set up a home Prelim.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Have us finishing 3rd then out in straight sets with losses to Port away and Geelong at home

 

[M Malice]

Have us finishing 3rd then out in straight sets with losses to Port away and Geelong at home

Yes the Cats in the 2nd week of finals would be an extremely difficult assignment for any of the top 4, nightmare scenario. So you think Chris Fagan keeps his job if that happens?

Would be great if it happened to the Pies though.

 

[Toffee Lion]

Since it's relevant, here is Port's fixture:

Port v Collingwood (AO)
Adelaide v Port (AO) - Showdown
Geelong v Port (GMHBA)
Port v GWS (AO)
Freo v Port (Optus)
Port v Richmond (AO)

Their next 3 are pretty defining for us. If we can knock off Geelong next week, I think there is still a pretty valid path for us to reach 2nd but that would likely need us beating Collingwood at Marvel.

GWS & Freo will be gimmies but even Richmond fighting for finals are no pushover. Port aren't out of the woods from us yet.

 

[____]

I want to be wrong but this is what I see happening.

We'll win all our remaining home and away games, finish third, have a "famous win" in the qualifying final then choke a home prelim, being our only loss at the Gabba for the year.

If I could put an insurance bet on that happening I would.

 

[fugitive]

Don’t know about GWS being ‘gimmies’ anymore, they are gunning for finals too. I think we play well at Marvel so definitely evens the playing against Collingwood. Overall, Port slightly tougher run home than us.

Since it's relevant, here is Port's fixture:

Port v Collingwood (AO)
Adelaide v Port (AO) - Showdown
Geelong v Port (GMHBA)
Port v GWS (AO)
Freo v Port (Optus)
Port v Richmond (AO)

Their next 3 are pretty defining for us. If we can knock off Geelong next week, I think there is still a pretty valid path for us to reach 2nd but that would likely need us beating Collingwood at Marvel.

GWS & Freo will be gimmies but even Richmond fighting for finals are no pushover. Port aren't out of the woods from us yet.

 

[Section 5]

My preseason expectations were to finish top 4.
Nothing has changed but we still need to win enough game to make that happen.
We should be okay. Just don't want injuries to occur like last year.

On our day we are a top two side but still struggle some on the interstate games like all clubs
Only 6 competition points separate 5th to 12th.
Although people may consider some of those teams easy wins for us, that may not be the case.
However, a close win is still a win.

When teams have a chance to make the 8 they are usually more competitive.
Take that away and they tend to drop off. Then coaches start playing younger players getting ready for the next year.
That is when they become an easy win to teams in the top 4.

 

[mpal6]

Have us finishing 3rd then out in straight sets with losses to Port away and Geelong at home

With pre-finals bye I'd prefer us finish third, have an away quali loss and win a home semi. We can keep playing all weeks in finals prior to prelim this way.

I believe Port may hit a slump and lose the next 2 or 3 opening the door for us. We need to beat Geelong first to make this all work.

 

[Tom14]

Have us finishing 3rd then out in straight sets with losses to Port away and Geelong at home

You have Geelong finishing 6th? I’d have them odds on for 5th now and if that’s the case we wouldn’t see them in the semi-final.

 

[Nathan Barley]

You have Geelong finishing 6th? I’d have them odds on for 5th now and if that’s the case we wouldn’t see them in the semi-final.

Bulldogs have an easy run

 

[Tom14]

Bulldogs have an easy run

Don’t trust them to win more than the cats personally but I can see what you are saying.

 

[knaf]

It’s all academic unless we beat the Cats next week.

 

[rye]

if port lost to a team as bad as carlton it might suggest their form is starting to dip and the luck thats seem them win so many close ones might be drying up. fair few injuries at alberton to boot. id back us as a real chance to get them either home or away, assuming they finish 2nd or 3rd and we occupy the other position.

 

[M Malice]

You have Geelong finishing 6th? I’d have them odds on for 5th now and if that’s the case we wouldn’t see them in the semi-final.

Dream finals run would be beat Port away in Qualifying Final, beat Demons in home Prelim and then bury the MCG hoodoo for good with an annihilation of the Magpies in the Grand Final.

 

[mpal6]

if port lost to a team as bad as carlton it might suggest their form is starting to dip and the luck thats seem them win so many close ones might be drying up. fair few injuries at alberton to boot. id back us as a real chance to get them either home or away, assuming they finish 2nd or 3rd and we occupy the other position.

Carlton are playing well and in good form actually. Last 4 rounds were all 50 point wins for Blues. They have West Coast up next so that'll be 5 game winning streak soon.

 

[rye]

Carlton are playing well and in good form actually. Last 4 rounds were all 50 point wins for Blues. They have West Coast up next so that'll be 5 game winning streak soon.

i dont really see wins on gold coast, fremantle and hawthorn as being overly impressive given the seasons those clubs have had. when carlton had that block of games playing against other contenders such as collingwood, melbourne and us they were shown up for the bang average side they are

and yes i know we lost to hawthorn

 

[Squizz89]

Dream finals run would be beat Port away in Qualifying Final, beat Demons in home Prelim and then bury the MCG hoodoo for good with an annihilation of the Magpies in the Grand Final.

We’re 4 goals up at 3QT in the granny v the Pies. Who’s confident?

 

[mpal6]

i dont really see wins on gold coast, fremantle and hawthorn as being overly impressive given the seasons those clubs have had. when carlton had that block of games playing against other contenders such as collingwood, melbourne and us they were shown up for the bang average side they are

and yes i know we lost to hawthorn

Good test for them in round 20 friday night vs Pies. Based on current form, I think Carlton can take it up to Pies.

 

[M Malice]

We’re 4 goals up at 3QT in the granny v the Pies. Who’s confident?

We keep the foot on the pedal and run out 50 point victors with Cam Rayner getting the Norm Smith Medal.

 

[M Malice]

I hope the boys remember this feeling from Friday night and it is spurs them on the greater heights this season.... very sad bunch of boys.

 

[Gadzorks]

Yes the Cats in the 2nd week of finals would be an extremely difficult assignment for any of the top 4, nightmare scenario. So you think Chris Fagan keeps his job if that happens?

Would be great if it happened to the Pies though.

Can't see Fagan getting sacked at all.

Too much risk that we drop with a new coach.

Caught in the twilight zone.

 

[Gibbo_88]

I think it was around this time last year that we had some pretty unconvincing form all the way till the last round. The general impression was that we could score pretty heavily but only 3-4 goals more than we could defend and it was the ease other teams sliced through us. The two losses against the Demons were pretty terrible.

Need Rayner and Zorko to really step up to get us 9 wins in a row.

 

[M Malice]

Here are the the win loss records of the last few premiers for their final 6 H&A games plus finals >

Cats 2022- 9 wins, 0 losses.
Demons 2021- 8-1, loss in round 18 to Bulldogs.
Tigers 2020- 9-1, loss in QF to Lions.
Tigers 2019- 9-0.
Eagles 2018- 7-2, losses in rounds 19 & 22 to Kangaroos and Demons.
Tigers 2017- 8-1, loss in round 21 to Cats.
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Premiers jointly from here are 50-4, suffice to say that from here on to the last day in September the recent trend is not losing too many games, you can't limp into September.

 

[FLVanLandingham]

why is there no option for 1st

 

[Section 5]

Year 2023 Ladder position @ Round 18 Lions 3rd with - 12W - 5L - 130.42%. Same position as last year but a better %.
Year 2022 Ladder position @ Round 18 Lions 3rd with - 12W - 5L - 125.97%. We ended up in 6th position with 15W - 7L.

Year 2022 R19 W Suns (H), R20 L Tigers (A), R21 W Blues (H), R22 W Saints (A), R23 L Demons (H).

Year 2023 R19 Cats (H), R20 Suns (A), R21 Dockers (A), R22 Crows (H), R23 Pies (A), R24 Saints (H). One extra game this year.