Opinion The run to September, our ladder position after the H&A season?.

[M Malice]

One round to go >

Magpies 68, 123.2% > Bombers(H).
Lions 64, 123.2% > Saints(H).
Port 64, 111.5% > Tigers(H).
Demons 60, 124.8% > Swans(A).
_____________________________
Blues 54, 116.1% > Giants(H).
Saints 52, 108.9% > Lions(A).
Swans 50, 111.6% > Demons(H).
Giants 48, 105.6% > Blues(A).
______________________________
Bulldogs 44, 107.6% > Cats(A).

Bombers on 44 points but their percentage is way too far back to have any chance.
__________________________________________
Amazing that going into the final round we can finish anywhere from 1st to 4th.

 

[McIvor]

One round to go >

Magpies 68, 123.2% > Bombers(H).
Lions 64, 123.2% > Saints(H).
Port 64, 111.5% > Tigers(H).
Demons 60, 124.8% > Swans(A).
_____________________________
Blues 54, 116.1% > Giants(H).
Saints 52, 108.9% > Lions(A).
Swans 50, 111.6% > Demons(H).
Giants 48, 105.6% > Blues(A).
______________________________
Bulldogs 44, 107.6% > Cats(A).

Bombers on 44 points but their percentage is way too far back to have any chance.
__________________________________________
Amazing that going into the final round we can finish anywhere from 1st to 4th.

What’s also interesting is that Melbourne are probably just as happy as staying fourth, which really is no different to them finishing first getting to stay at the MCG.

Only difference for Dees is if we were to drop and Port win (which let’s be honest, they’re not losing to Richmond in Adelaide next week) they’ll finish third and and have to head to SA in week one, so I suspect they’ll be pretty happy finishing fourth as odd as that sounds.

 

[M Malice]

What’s also interesting is that Melbourne are probably just as happy as staying fourth, which really is no different to them finishing first getting to stay at the MCG.

Only difference for Dees is if we were to drop and Port win (which let’s be honest, they’re not losing to Richmond in Adelaide next week) they’ll finish third and and have to head to SA in week one, so I suspect they’ll be pretty happy finishing fourth as odd as that sounds.

Definitely be better for them to finish 4th and get a home final..... as long as we don't pass the Pies and finish 1st.

 

[Section 5]

One round to go >

Magpies 68, 123.2% > Bombers(H).
Lions 64, 123.2% > Saints(H).
Port 64, 111.5% > Tigers(H).
Demons 60, 124.8% > Swans(A).
_____________________________
Blues 54, 116.1% > Giants(H).
Saints 52, 108.9% > Lions(A).
Swans 50, 111.6% > Demons(H).
Giants 48, 105.6% > Blues(A).
______________________________
Bulldogs 44, 107.6% > Cats(A).

Bombers on 44 points but their percentage is way too far back to have any chance.
__________________________________________
Amazing that going into the final round we can finish anywhere from 1st to 4th.

Last year we could finish anywhere from 2nd to 6th.
Of course, it ended up being 6th.
Hope for a better result this time round.

 

[M Malice]

Last year we could finish anywhere from 2nd to 6th.
Of course, it ended up being 6th.
Hope for a better result this time round.

There is a massive amount of motivation/reward on the line against the Saints, win and we finish 2nd and our first 2 finals are guaranteed as being at the Gabba.

Qualifying Final(W) & Preliminary Final.

OR

Qualifying Final(L) & Semi Final.

 

[Section 5]

2. BRISBANE LIONS (16-6, 123.2%)

Round 24 game: St Kilda at the Gabba, Saturday 4:35pm

Win: Finish 2nd if Collingwood def Essendon, 1st if Essendon def Collingwood*

Lose: Finish 2nd if Port Adelaide (vs Richmond) and Melbourne (vs Sydney) lose, 3rd if one loses, 4th if neither lose

Analysis: After winning perhaps their biggest home and away game under Chris Fagan, the Lions are a step away from a much simpler path to their first Grand Final in his tenure - just needing to take care of business against St Kilda to ensure a top-two finish and home qualifying final. Given the Lions have lost one game at the Gabba in two years (we’re excluding last year’s Essendon game because half their team was out with Covid), you’d back them to get the job done, and then be in a prime position to stay home until the last week of September. But an upset loss could squander their good work and very likely sends them on the road, to either Adelaide or Melbourne, in week one of the finals.

Prediction: Finish 2nd, host Port Adelaide in a qualifying final

*Can stay 2nd despite a Pies loss/Lions win combo if the Pies’ loss is close and low-scoring, and the Lions’ win is close and high-scoring.

6. ST KILDA (13-9, 108.9%)

Round 24 game: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, Saturday 4:35pm

Win: Finish 5th if GWS def Carlton, 6th if Carlton def GWS

Lose: Finish 6th if Sydney (vs Melbourne) and GWS (vs Carlton) both lose, 7th if one loses, 8th if both win*

Analysis: What a remarkable 24 hours that was for the Saints, ending Geelong’s season and then having a stunning upset by West Coast secure their place in September. We’ve been critical of their form but nobody can argue they don’t deserve a finals spot. A home final is a realistic possibility too, even if they lose to Brisbane at the Gabba (as most would expect). At worst, the Saints could slide down to 8th - they’re around nine or 10 goals ahead of GWS on percentage. So a five-goal loss to Brisbane combined with a four-goal GWS win would likely be enough to close the gap. Not impossible, right? Perhaps more importantly, they’d really like Melbourne to beat Sydney, because that makes it less likely they’d have to travel for their first final.

Prediction: Finish 7th, away to Sydney Swans in an elimination final


*Tie on wins with GWS would come down to percentage, with St Kilda currently ahead by around 9-10 goals

Every AFL team’s best and worst finish... and week one of finals predicted: The Run Home

Every AFL team’s best and worst finish... and week one of finals predicted: The Run Home

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[luthor]

2. BRISBANE LIONS (16-6, 123.2%)

Round 24 game: St Kilda at the Gabba, Saturday 4:35pm

Win: Finish 2nd if Collingwood def Essendon, 1st if Essendon def Collingwood*

Lose: Finish 2nd if Port Adelaide (vs Richmond) and Melbourne (vs Sydney) lose, 3rd if one loses, 4th if neither lose

Analysis: After winning perhaps their biggest home and away game under Chris Fagan, the Lions are a step away from a much simpler path to their first Grand Final in his tenure - just needing to take care of business against St Kilda to ensure a top-two finish and home qualifying final. Given the Lions have lost one game at the Gabba in two years (we’re excluding last year’s Essendon game because half their team was out with Covid), you’d back them to get the job done, and then be in a prime position to stay home until the last week of September. But an upset loss could squander their good work and very likely sends them on the road, to either Adelaide or Melbourne, in week one of the finals.

Prediction: Finish 2nd, host Port Adelaide in a qualifying final

*Can stay 2nd despite a Pies loss/Lions win combo if the Pies’ loss is close and low-scoring, and the Lions’ win is close and high-scoring.

6. ST KILDA (13-9, 108.9%)

Round 24 game: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, Saturday 4:35pm

Win: Finish 5th if GWS def Carlton, 6th if Carlton def GWS

Lose: Finish 6th if Sydney (vs Melbourne) and GWS (vs Carlton) both lose, 7th if one loses, 8th if both win*

Analysis: What a remarkable 24 hours that was for the Saints, ending Geelong’s season and then having a stunning upset by West Coast secure their place in September. We’ve been critical of their form but nobody can argue they don’t deserve a finals spot. A home final is a realistic possibility too, even if they lose to Brisbane at the Gabba (as most would expect). At worst, the Saints could slide down to 8th - they’re around nine or 10 goals ahead of GWS on percentage. So a five-goal loss to Brisbane combined with a four-goal GWS win would likely be enough to close the gap. Not impossible, right? Perhaps more importantly, they’d really like Melbourne to beat Sydney, because that makes it less likely they’d have to travel for their first final.

Prediction: Finish 7th, away to Sydney Swans in an elimination final


*Tie on wins with GWS would come down to percentage, with St Kilda currently ahead by around 9-10 goals

Every AFL team’s best and worst finish... and week one of finals predicted: The Run Home

Every AFL team’s best and worst finish... and week one of finals predicted: The Run Home

www.foxsports.com.au

Great analysis.

I was going through all those permutations too but you have saved me the trouble of having to put them down in a post of my own.

I do think though that if we win and Pies happen to lose, we surely finish first due to the miniscule %age difference between them and us.

Given the Bombers abysmal last start effort, it would normally be highly unlikely for them to roll the Pies. Nevertheless, this isn't a normal season and there have been some stunning upsets in just about every Round. Who would have thought that the Weagles could beat Dogs today?

The Pies are barely going and Essendon always seem to find something when playing them.

I find it hard to rule anything in or out.

We can still finish anywhere between first and fourth

 

[Quested]

If the prelim was at the Gabba, how difficult would it be to get tickets as a non-member? And that would be played on 16th Sep?

I reckon we finish 2nd

 

[mpal6]

If the prelim was at the Gabba, how difficult would it be to get tickets as a non-member? And that would be played on 16th Sep?

I reckon we finish 2nd

If you include the week off, prelim will be on 23rd september weekend.

 

[dlanod]

If the prelim was at the Gabba, how difficult would it be to get tickets as a non-member? And that would be played on 16th Sep?

I reckon we finish 2nd

Depends who we're against and how promptly you are trying to get tickets.

 

[Lace Out]

Tipping we play Pies at the Gabba in the preliminary

 

[McIvor]

Tipping we play Pies at the Gabba in the preliminary

A few Pies I know are tipping them to go out in straight sets such is their anguish at how they’re placed. I could live with that.

 

[Dalions]

A few Pies I know are tipping them to go out in straight sets such is their anguish at how they’re placed. I could live with that.

I don’t see it myself, I think they will lift when it comes to finals footy.
Think they will atleast make a prelim.

 

[briztoon]

If you include the week off, prelim will be on 23rd september weekend.

We fly out on the 22nd

 

[McIvor]

I don’t see it myself, I think they will lift when it comes to finals footy.
Think they will atleast make a prelim.

Nor do I for what it’s worth.

 

[martinson]

Nor do I for what it’s worth.

Geez they're the team to beat for sure provided they get their players back.

 

[McIvor]

Geez they're the team to beat for sure provided they get their players back.

My post was meaning that I don’t think they will go out in straight sets. Even if the list to Melbourne in week one, presuming they play them, I can’t see them losing to whoever they would get next at the G.

 

[lionsrules]

Tipping we play Pies at the Gabba in the preliminary

If we finish second and win 1st week I’ll go with Carlton at the Gabba in the prelim. Collingwood out in straight sets.
Us to beat Carlton

 

[Lion_LegacyXL]

If we finish second and win 1st week I’ll go with Carlton at the Gabba in the prelim. Collingwood out in straight sets.
Us to beat Carlton

That would be ideal then play either Port Adelaide or Melbourne in the grand final

 

[mpal6]

My post was meaning that I don’t think they will go out in straight sets. Even if the list to Melbourne in week one, presuming they play them, I can’t see them losing to whoever they would get next at the G.

Could be Carlton.

 

[Sanchez365]

That would be ideal then play either Port Adelaide or Melbourne in the grand final

Port in the GF would be dream scenario.

 

[mpal6]

Port in the GF would be dream scenario.

Port's midfield is the only one that worries me.
There is too much burst speed with JHF, Butters - we would struggle to go with them for 4 quarters.

 

[Sanchez365]

Port's midfield is the only one that worries me.
There is too much burst speed with JHF, Butters - we would struggle to go with them for 4 quarters.

I don't see how ports midfield is scarier then Melbourne's. Ports only inside players are Wines and Boak, and id back in Neale + Dunkley over them.

We are susceptible at center bounce to all teams and that is ports absolute strength, but across an entire game I think we have them pretty comfortably. Plus also both travelling for GF, they would have nervy young players like us. Better the Pies with a free home game or Melb with their GF experience.

Then again Port did smash us in rnd 1 so maybe I'm under selling them haha.

 

[martinson]

I don't care who we play . On their day the other 3 teams in the Top 4 are capable of beating anybody.

I think it's important that we get that first home final which gives us a big advantage and from there it's all in our own hands. We've had a reasonably good run injury wise and need that to continue.

Apart from that I'll worry about who we're playing when we're definitely playing them.

Now that the Pies have copped a couple of significant injuries it's a reasonably even matchup between the 4 of us.

Don't really rate anyone outside the Top 4.

 

[3KZ is Football]

My theory from here is simple. The TOP FOUR TEAM that can win their last 3 Home and Away games will win the Grand Final. On paper, the most likely looks like Melbourne, then Brisbane and then Port Adelaide and then Collingwood. Depending how the final ladder pans out, I wouldn’t be surprised if we had a Melbourne v Brisbane Grand Final.

Looks like Brisbane and Port Adelaide are the two Top 4 Teams that are finishing the season off best, closely followed by Melbourne. Based on what we are seeing, Collingwood going out in ‘straight sets’ is a distinct possibility.
Qualifying Finals
Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide
Collingwood v Melbourne

FEELING CONFIDENT