The war against renewable energy

[SaintsSeptember]

Retailers profiteering

Its not that simple.
Transmission costs are increasing.
and people investing want to make money.

So you own a wind turbine.
If its a sunny day , there is a glut of electricity available, you can't sell it for much.
So when there is a shortage of electricity you charge what you can get away with.
Same thing happens if its not a very sunny day.

Its all supply/demand.
Stored power won't be cheaper than coal , because the outlay per kwh is high.
On still nights stored electricity suppliers will be charging through the nose.
Many many things you buy are not related to the cost of production.
An Apple phone probably costs around $50 to produce.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

South Australia has been increasing the use of gas.
If the wholesale prices have fallen its because of supply/demand, they have addressed the electricity shortage by increasing the use of gas.

This is interesting , the whole thing is far more complicated than people think.

https://www.energymining.sa.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/1100215/2024-Energy-Development-Plan.pdf

5. A balance needsto be found between:
1. Having too much long durationfirm capacity in the SouthAustralian power system,causing unnecessary costs toconsumers, and
2. Not having enough longduration firm capacity,resulting in consumer bill priceshocks, unnecessary supplyshortages and creating abarrier to major investments innew industries.


An increasing need to earn revenue fromuncertain and infrequent high-price eventsis a challenge for new long duration capacityproviders. In the last decade, only three newlong duration firm capacity projects have beenconstructed and commissioned in SouthAustralia: Barker Inlet Power Station; BolivarPower Station; and Snapper Point PowerStation. Two of these projects (Bolivar andSnapper Point) were originally the state-ownedgenerators installed as response to the systemblack event, which were leased to the privatemarket for a term of 25 years in 2019.More than 1GW of existing South Australianthermal generation capacity has also indicatedto AEMO its intent to withdraw from the SouthAustralian market by 2027 (see Table 2). Thisreduction in long duration firm capacity basedin South Australia is further compoundedby current planned retirement dates for the1450MW Yallourn Power Station in Victoria andthe 2880MW Eraring Power Station in NewSouth Wales. Despite their age and inflexibleoperational profile, these coal-fired powerstations still provide nearly 20 per cent ofannual energy consumption in their respectivestates.While the National Electricity Rules (NER)states that generators must provide atleast 42 months of notice before closing, inpractice this has not prevented generatorsfrom mothballing earlier as witnessed by theunforeseen mothballing of Snuggery PowerStation and Port Lincoln Power Station in 2024.Such mothballing at short notice inhibits theGovernment of South Australia, ElectraNetand AEMO’s ability to effectively plan for thereplacement of key electricity infrastructureand leads to unforeseen reliability gaps thatare challenging and potentially costly to rectifyat short notice.

 

[nut]

On still nights stored electricity suppliers will be charging through the nose.

if the market does its job then this won’t happen.
If I can install a battery for 20c a KWh 12 months ago then anyone can do better than that now.
Large scale batteries costs will plummet in the next few years.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

if the market does its job then this won’t happen.
If I can install a battery for 20c a KWh 12 months ago then anyone can do better than that now.
Large scale batteries costs will plummet in the next few years.

Yeah, there are big companies building them, and they will give the power to you as cheap as they possibly can.
Because everyone making electricity from fossil fuels is an evil moneygrabbing psycho, and anyone making electricity from renewable sources is a wonderful angel doing it out of the goodness of their hearts.

 

[dewcefault]

Yeah, there are big companies building them, and they will give the power to you as cheap as they possibly can.
Because everyone making electricity from fossil fuels is an evil moneygrabbing psycho, and anyone making electricity from renewable sources is a wonderful angel doing it out of the goodness of their hearts.

I believe the point being made is that the market will find a balance as you can procure your own batteries at a cost of about 20c/kWh. If renewable energy companies start massively profiteering with night time power then we'll see a significant increase in home battery installations.

 

[nut]

I believe the point being made is that the market will find a balance as you can procure your own batteries at a cost of about 20c/kWh. If renewable energy companies start massively profiteering with night time power then we'll see a significant increase in home battery installations.

It gets lost on him every time.

 

[nut]

Anyone building a new house should consider an off grid system.
A sungrow 10kw Hybrid inverter that can operate completely off grid can power an entire house.
Add 40kw of Battery and 20kw of solar on an energy efficient house and you’ll never need the grid. Roughly $40k-45k
Heat pump hot water.
Heat pump heating and cooling.
If the battery is managed properly you’d get over 15 years.
Solar 25 years minimum.
Coupled with an EV you’d pay zero power and fuel costs, and can use the EV as “back up”

Savings $2500 a year in power and gas … and $3000 in petrol.
7-8 year pay back.

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

It already is. Without renewables our energy prices would be a lot more.
When diid the wholesale price fall with out renewables?

And herein lies the problem. In 20 years time when the government is too tight to replace ailing solar panels and batteries (like they are with coal plants) they'll "extend the useful life" of existing infrastructure, which is code for spending the minimum amount to keep it going but not optimally.

Then we'll be having the same issue with renewables as we are with coal. Whole solar and battery arrays will go down, causing prices to spike.

Don't get me wrong. I am a supporter of renewables because of the environmental benefits. But don't pretend that renewables are going to result in cheap or cheaper power. A cautionary tale. Nuclear was once touted as "too cheap to meter"

The best way for us to get cheap power. Ramp up the use of gas. Sadly, the contract break fees don't make that feasible.

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

Anyone building a new house should consider an off grid system.
A sungrow 10kw Hybrid inverter that can operate completely off grid can power an entire house.
Add 40kw of Battery and 20kw of solar on an energy efficient house and you’ll never need the grid. Roughly $40k-45k
Heat pump hot water.
Heat pump heating and cooling.
If the battery is managed properly you’d get over 15 years.
Solar 25 years minimum.
Coupled with an EV you’d pay zero power and fuel costs, and can use the EV as “back up”

Savings $2500 a year in power and gas … and $3000 in petrol.
7-8 year pay back.

Fantasy land is a theme in Disneyworld.

Get back into the real world and provide a national solution that benefits all Australians.

 

[nut]

Fantasy land is a theme in Disneyworld.

Get back into the real world and provide a national solution that benefits all Australians.

So there are no new builds happening? People drop 20k a landscaping.. dropping $40k for free power for 25 years isn’t a stretch.

 

[nut]

And herein lies the problem. In 20 years time when the government is too tight to replace ailing solar panels and batteries (like they are with coal plants) they'll "extend the useful life" of existing infrastructure, which is code for spending the minimum amount to keep it going but not optimally.

Firstly it’s not a government problem.. renewables are being rolled out by private investments, that are no where near getting the subsidies that the fossil fuel industry is getting.
There are 50 year old satellites still working fine off solar.
25 year old solar panels working @ 93%
Only reason people are replacing solar panels is the need for more capacity on limited roof space. Large solar farms dont have that problem, they’ll operate fine for decades..

Renewables are decentralised and scaleable… and cheap enough to go it alone. Nothing else can compete with that.

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

Firstly it’s not a government problem.. renewables are being rolled out by private investments, that are no where near getting the subsidies that the fossil fuel industry is getting.
There are 50 year old satellites still working fine off solar.
25 year old solar panels working @ 93%
Only reason people are replacing solar panels is the need for more capacity on limited roof space. Large solar farms dont have that problem, they’ll operate fine for decades..

Renewables are decentralised and scaleable… and cheap enough to go it alone. Nothing else can compete with that.

Satellites working off the most expensive panels available at the time. 99% of people today are buying cheapest Trina or Jinko panels offered.

 

[nut]

Satellites working off the most expensive panels available at the time. 99% of people today are buying cheapest Trina or Jinko panels offered.

And today’s cheap panels are 50 times more efficient and better built than a panel 50 years ago… I hope you realise that.

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

And today’s cheap panels are 50 times more efficient and better built than a panel 50 years ago… I hope you realise that.

I agree with the first bit, but they aren't built to last like those used by NASA. All of these things are going to have to be replaced and, history shows, there is a reluctance to do any significant capital spends.

Even solar panels can't handle the increasing heat

As the world heats up, solar panels will degrade faster – especially in hot, humid areas. What can we do?

www.australiangeographic.com.au

As for warranties, you need to read the fine print. If you've neglected to clean your panels every six months, then guess what, no soup for you. It's the same with 25 year silicon mould guarantees. Looks good on the product (25 year no mould guarantee) until you read the fine print.

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

Firstly it’s not a government problem.. renewables are being rolled out by private investments, that are no where near getting the subsidies that the fossil fuel industry is getting.
There are 50 year old satellites still working fine off solar.
25 year old solar panels working @ 93%
Only reason people are replacing solar panels is the need for more capacity on limited roof space. Large solar farms dont have that problem, they’ll operate fine for decades..

Renewables are decentralised and scaleable… and cheap enough to go it alone. Nothing else can compete with that.

Private firms spending now with government grants and subsidies. Let's see how much they are will to spend when the subsidies dry up.

Come back to me when the prices to the consumer are lower across the board.

 

[nut]

I agree with the first bit, but they aren't built to last like those used by NASA. All of these things are going to have to be replaced and, history shows, there is a reluctance to do any significant capital spends.

Even solar panels can't handle the increasing heat

As the world heats up, solar panels will degrade faster – especially in hot, humid areas. What can we do?

www.australiangeographic.com.au

As for warranties, you need to read the fine print. If you've neglected to clean your panels every six months, then guess what, no soup for you. It's the same with 25 year silicon mould guarantees. Looks good on the product (25 year no mould guarantee) until you read the fine print.

To be CEC approved they have to have 25 year productivity guarantees.
Why wouldn’t you want to keep your power generation clean? You are scraping the bottom of the barrel now.

Here is an example of a business giving the grid the bird..
only using a vegetable oil generator 4% of the time.

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

To be CEC approved they have to have 25 year productivity guarantees.
Why wouldn’t you want to keep your power generation clean? You are scraping the bottom of the barrel now.

Here is an example of a business giving the grid the bird..
only using a vegetable oil generator 4% of the time.

Come on. The same type of regulation as ADR 81/02 Fuel Consumption Labelling for Light Vehicles which has all vehicles tested under standardised, carefully controlled conditions in specialised vehicle emission laboratories.

Lab conditions aren't real world.

 

[nut]

Come on. The same type of regulation as ADR 81/02 Fuel Consumption Labelling for Light Vehicles which has all vehicles tested under standardised, carefully controlled conditions in specialised vehicle emission laboratories.

Lab conditions aren't real world.

My system has performance monitoring and performance guarantees…and I’m IN THE REAL WORLD.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

To be CEC approved they have to have 25 year productivity guarantees.
Why wouldn’t you want to keep your power generation clean? You are scraping the bottom of the barrel now.

Here is an example of a business giving the grid the bird..
only using a vegetable oil generator 4% of the time.

A lot of Australian mine sites are off grid. Where they are , there is no grid.

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

My system has performance monitoring and performance guarantees…and I’m IN THE REAL WORLD.

Your real world guarantee is useless I'm afraid. Do you get any shade on your panels at all? Oops, void. What about 6 monthly maintenance...oops, void again.

Trina Solar Panel Warranties: Deep Dive

Thinking of buying Trina Solar panels? Ronald dived deep into their warranty documents and has some good and bad news.

www.solarquotes.com.au

 

[nut]

Your real world guarantee is useless I'm afraid. Do you get any shade on your panels at all? Oops, void. What about 6 monthly maintenance...oops, void again.

Trina Solar Panel Warranties: Deep Dive

Thinking of buying Trina Solar panels? Ronald dived deep into their warranty documents and has some good and bad news.

www.solarquotes.com.au

… seriously are you really worried about solar panels not lasting more than 25 years?
They are now using solar panels to build fences they are so cheap.
Is this all you have to criticise solar panels.
And yes they are recyclable …

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

… seriously are you really worried about solar panels not lasting more than 25 years?
They are now using solar panels to build fences they are so cheap.
Is this all you have to criticise solar panels.
And yes they are recyclable …

What I'm saying is that you'll be getting 10 years before you need to replace panels, inverters and batteries. At scale, that's a huge reinvestment that needs to happen. Whole solar farms needing a complete tear down and re-build.

 

[swingdog]

What I'm saying is that you'll be getting 10 years before you need to replace panels, inverters and batteries. At scale, that's a huge reinvestment that needs to happen. Whole solar farms needing a complete tear down and re-build.

Would these be the same panels and inverter I've had on my roof for the past 17 years?

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

Would these be the same panels and inverter I've had on my roof for the past 17 years?

No, probably not. These days, panels are made to be as cheap and cheerful as possible.

Remember when your Westinghouse Fridge would still be going 30 + years later. And these days, you're lucky to get 5 years.

 

[swingdog]

No, probably not. These days, panels are made to be as cheap and cheerful as possible.

Remember when your Westinghouse Fridge would still be going 30 + years later. And these days, you're lucky to get 5 years.

I mean, they're Chinese and I assume they have got better since then.