How the coalition can win the next Victorian election

[The Punter]

That's true, just don't bring out the "majority of the population is outside Brisbane" argument to explain it when that has nothing to do with it. It won't even be true anymore within a few years anyway.

I mean, it's a numbers game to some extent. If they don't live in Brisbane, they gotta live somewhere. It's not like everyone is in two cities.

 

[The Punter]

Ballarat is Union heartland, Bendigo too, they've still got a bit of manufacturing, plus a history of unionism going back to the Goldrush. Allan is from Bendigo.

But the opposition would be more successful if they did attack (and defend) on multiple fronts. You wouldn't think the Nats have more seats than the Greens by the amount of press they get. Nats have more than twice as many seats, but we hear a lot more from the Greens in the press. The Nats get local press, but they need state-wide representation, and need to speak over the interstate federal leadership like Ley and Joyce who make them look stupid.

That's all well and good, but on the rare occasion the non-left gets to govern in Victoria, the Nats get Ministers. They actually get to do stuff. That might change if we get a minority government in Victoria post-2026, but I can't think of a single Nat who would rather the press the Greens Party gets at the expense of the opportunity to actually govern once in a while.

 

[Saint]

That's all well and good, but on the rare occasion the non-left gets to govern in Victoria, the Nats get Ministers. They actually get to do stuff. That might change if we get a minority government in Victoria post-2026, but I can't think of a single Nat who would rather the press the Greens Party gets at the expense of the opportunity to actually govern once in a while.

Unless the Libs go down the ALP-style D P&C mode of micromanaging every portfolio and the Ministers are in-name only.

The Libs will always have to form a coalition with the Nats, they just don't have to be so friendly and organised about it.

Country roads are going to deteriorate at a massive rate (faster than they already were) because of the city-focused infrastructure spend and the Nats are powerless to do anything about it, and Pessutto talking about the state of country roads isn't going to get the kind of traction that a Nats leader would.

 

[The Punter]

Unless the Libs go down the ALP-style D P&C mode of micromanaging every portfolio and the Ministers are in-name only.

The Libs will always have to form a coalition with the Nats, they just don't have to be so friendly and organised about it.

Country roads are going to deteriorate at a massive rate (faster than they already were) because of the city-focused infrastructure spend and the Nats are powerless to do anything about it, and Pessutto talking about the state of country roads isn't going to get the kind of traction that a Nats leader would.

The previous LNP government spent more money on country road maintenance and gave money directly to local councils specifically for their road portfolios. And the LNP have been speaking about country road maintenance for nearly ten years in opposition.

The two parties have been through some tough times - the state coalition is about as strong as it has ever been. If country people (including those in regional centres) don't want to drive on dangerous roads, they have been provided a clear choice on election day.

 

[Saint]

The previous LNP government spent more money on country road maintenance and gave money directly to local councils specifically for their road portfolios. And the LNP have been speaking about country road maintenance for nearly ten years in opposition.

The two parties have been through some tough times - the state coalition is about as strong as it has ever been. If country people (including those in regional centres) don't want to drive on dangerous roads, they have been provided a clear choice on election day.

Maybe the two parties would be in a better state if they weren't so strongly bound is the whole point.

They might have a strong coalition, but what's the good of a strong coalition if it contributes to remaining in opposition.

You don't hear a lot of professional sports teams saying "It doesn't matter if we're losing by heaps, as long as we're all having fun together". That's for the Juniors.

I'm only saying this because the ALP monopoly is simply bad for the state. They're doing all sorts of nonsense and there's no effective opposition. I don't mean opposition party singular, I mean there should be attacks on multiple fronts at the moment.

Instead we have a wet lettuce LNP, non-existent Nats and Greens angling to get a few crumbs in return for passing legislation in the upper house.

I still think they've been better than an LNP Govt would have been, but I'm a big promoter for minority Governments, it's what we should be aiming for

 

[The Punter]

Maybe the two parties would be in a better state if they weren't so strongly bound is the whole point.

They might have a strong coalition, but what's the good of a strong coalition if it contributes to remaining in opposition.

You don't hear a lot of professional sports teams saying "It doesn't matter if we're losing by heaps, as long as we're all having fun together". That's for the Juniors.

I'm only saying this because the ALP monopoly is simply bad for the state. They're doing all sorts of nonsense and there's no effective opposition. I don't mean opposition party singular, I mean there should be attacks on multiple fronts at the moment.

Instead we have a wet lettuce LNP, non-existent Nats and Greens angling to get a few crumbs in return for passing legislation in the upper house.

I still think they've been better than an LNP Govt would have been, but I'm a big promoter for minority Governments, it's what we should be aiming for

I think in the limited experience we've had with LNP governments with slender majorities, what happens is the right flank of the party holds the rest to ransom. So I don't want that. I think something very similar would happen if the ALP had to rely on the Greens Party for supply and confidence.

I think there are times when the Nats should have found a fuller, more independent voice, as I also think there have been times when Victorian Liberals should have done the same compared to their national counterparts. But I think the cooperation and teamwork is more beneficial than detrimental. I don't think it is contributing to remaining in opposition, at least no where near as much as the right flank of the LNP showing no regard to softening their edges to appeal to mainstream voters in order to win government.

There aren't too many more opportunities for the Nats - they won every seat they made the 2PP count in at the last state election IIRC. And the Libs have shown over and over again an unwillingness to not run in seats or run dead that other major parties just seem to be able to avoid. I think our side of politics have bigger issues (and more straightforward ones to fix) before worrying about maximising return on investment on the Coalition agreement.

 

[Not Important]

I think in the limited experience we've had with LNP governments with slender majorities, what happens is the right flank of the party holds the rest to ransom. So I don't want that. I think something very similar would happen if the ALP had to rely on the Greens Party for supply and confidence.

I think there are times when the Nats should have found a fuller, more independent voice, as I also think there have been times when Victorian Liberals should have done the same compared to their national counterparts. But I think the cooperation and teamwork is more beneficial than detrimental. I don't think it is contributing to remaining in opposition, at least no where near as much as the right flank of the LNP showing no regard to softening their edges to appeal to mainstream voters in order to win government.

There aren't too many more opportunities for the Nats - they won every seat they made the 2PP count in at the last state election IIRC. And the Libs have shown over and over again an unwillingness to not run in seats or run dead that other major parties just seem to be able to avoid. I think our side of politics have bigger issues (and more straightforward ones to fix) before worrying about maximising return on investment on the Coalition agreement.

isn’t that what’s occurring now? or, at least, what the extremists are attempting. to my eyes, pesutto is far and away the most measured and electable leader you’ve had in yonks. and that is reflected in polling. yet the rightist swill seem intent on bringing him undone.

 

[Todman]

IIRC in 2009 the Brumby government changed the Frankston train timetable so they stopped at all stations, (eliminating express Malvern to South Yarra). The six seats that abut the train line all fell to the Liberals.

The Libs didn't change the train schedules so in 2014 they lost all six seats.

In short little things can change the electorate.

6 seats up for grabs

 

[Saint]

I think in the limited experience we've had with LNP governments with slender majorities, what happens is the right flank of the party holds the rest to ransom. So I don't want that. I think something very similar would happen if the ALP had to rely on the Greens Party for supply and confidence.

I think there are times when the Nats should have found a fuller, more independent voice, as I also think there have been times when Victorian Liberals should have done the same compared to their national counterparts. But I think the cooperation and teamwork is more beneficial than detrimental. I don't think it is contributing to remaining in opposition, at least no where near as much as the right flank of the LNP showing no regard to softening their edges to appeal to mainstream voters in order to win government.

There aren't too many more opportunities for the Nats - they won every seat they made the 2PP count in at the last state election IIRC. And the Libs have shown over and over again an unwillingness to not run in seats or run dead that other major parties just seem to be able to avoid. I think our side of politics have bigger issues (and more straightforward ones to fix) before worrying about maximising return on investment on the Coalition agreement.

I think coalitions are fine in Government, but in opposition they blunt the ability to oppose from a broader range.

I agree there are other pressing problems, it appears they're mostly confined to the Liberal Party, rather than the Nats - who I'd always thought were traditionally more socially conservative than the Libs.

 

[carltonchelsea]

They can win by disappearing forever!

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

Vett all candidates so to keep the nutters at bay.

Promote the ideal of future hope.

Redirect spending into areas that need additional funds.

Remove red tape and streamline government planning.

Give IBAC some real powers.

Trim the fat out of the Public Services.

They'd have to start over if they wanted to keep the nutters at bay.

 

[The Punter]

JP has a fair idea: from the H-Sun's reporting on the Pesutto v Deeming court case:

 

[Saint]

JP has a fair idea: from the H-Sun's reporting on the Pesutto v Deeming court case:

View attachment 2115462

I think the summation at the bottom is interesting in summing up where the H-Sun and parts of the Libs want to take the party.

Pessutto is about being forward looking and enterprise. The H-Sun and much of the party wants to be backward looking and interventionist on social crusading.

I also disagree in that the Liberals have never been about the strength of communities. They've always been focused on individualism to the detriment of communities.

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

IIRC in 2009 the Brumby government changed the Frankston train timetable so they stopped at all stations, (eliminating express Malvern to South Yarra). The six seats that abut the train line all fell to the Liberals.

The Libs didn't change the train schedules so in 2014 they lost all six seats.

In short little things can change the electorate.

6 seats up for grabs

There wasn't a timetable change in 2009. The operators did change though.
2010 the timetable was changed. Frankston trains outside peaks stopped all stations through the MATH stations with Dandenong trains running express instead. The Frankston Express trains were altered to run direct to Flinders Street.

Those seats aren't as marginal as they were. People got over having to change trains.

 

[Sir_Loin]

have to hand it Deeming. A mediocre wannabe politician with far right views taking down the liberal party in Victoria is a Labor wet dream. You couldn't write this story as fiction. The longer it goes on the better for Labor

 

[kalex6251]

have to hand it Deeming. A mediocre wannabe politician with far right views taking down the liberal party in Victoria is a Labor wet dream. You couldn't write this story as fiction. The longer it goes on the better for Labor

worth remembering - deeming is not without support from members of the liberal parliamentary team ..... what the 'god squad' do next will be interesting

 

[The Punter]

worth remembering - deeming is not without support from members of the liberal parliamentary team ..... what the 'god squad' do next will be interesting

The "God Squad" in the parliamentary team is now essentially Dr Heath.

The rest of the supporters inside the room are essentially political opportunists and garden variety reactionaries.

 

[Saint]

The "God Squad" in the parliamentary team is now essentially Dr Heath.

The rest of the supporters inside the room are essentially political opportunists and garden variety reactionaries.

Just like the Federal LNP.

I think there's still enough sensible small-business small-government Liberals in the Victorian branches, but not by much. Other states are much more religious than Victoria.

 

[blueboy25]

Just like the Federal LNP.

I think there's still enough sensible small-business small-government Liberals in the Victorian branches, but not by much. Other states are much more religious than Victoria.

Is it too late to stop the god botherers taking over completely in Vic?

 

[peetoo]

Libs b]needy commit to taking over ‘the big build’ as it is, but promise how they can manage it better.

They don’t have the runs on the board for another ‘this is a vote on the EW link proposal’

Prove yourself then adjust the strategy

 

[Saint]

Libs b]needy commit to taking over ‘the big build’ as it is, but promise how they can manage it better.

They don’t have the runs on the board for another ‘this is a vote on the EW link proposal’

Prove yourself then adjust the strategy

The Big Build is over. They're disbanding all of it. The MTIA no longer exists, the Big Build Jobs website has splintered into links to other things.

The only remnants of it are SRLA which was set up in the same style. But everything else has ceased to exist.

We're now back to the "normal" build without the need for faux "authorities" with no authority, charging massive amounts for run-of-the-mill work, but the Govt paying a premium for no apparent reason.

 

[peetoo]

The Big Build is over. They're disbanding all of it. The MTIA no longer exists, the Big Build Jobs website has splintered into links to other things.

The only remnants of it are SRLA which was set up in the same style. But everything else has ceased to exist.

We're now back to the "normal" build without the need for faux "authorities" with no authority, charging massive amounts for run-of-the-mill work, but the Govt paying a premium for no apparent reason.

However you describe it, LNP need to commit to it or they’ll never take power

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

The Big Build is over. They're disbanding all of it. The MTIA no longer exists, the Big Build Jobs website has splintered into links to other things.

The only remnants of it are SRLA which was set up in the same style. But everything else has ceased to exist.

We're now back to the "normal" build without the need for faux "authorities" with no authority, charging massive amounts for run-of-the-mill work, but the Govt paying a premium for no apparent reason.

I wouldn't describe it as over. I'd say more slowing down. Some of that is just a natural drying up of work. The big stuff coming to an end.

Crossing removals for instance. There's not many of those big multi crossing type works left. Upfield line would be about it.

What's left is either not a priority or a complex removal.

It would still be wise to keep projects on the go though. You don't want to lose that knowledge base and skilled workforce

 

[Saint]

I wouldn't describe it as over. I'd say more slowing down. Some of that is just a natural drying up of work. The big stuff coming to an end.

Crossing removals for instance. There's not many of those big multi crossing type works left. Upfield line would be about it.

What's left is either not a priority or a complex removal.

It would still be wise to keep projects on the go though. You don't want to lose that knowledge base and skilled workforce

There's been redundancies in every transport company in the market and many in RPV didn't get picked up anywhere. Everyone's trying to move to the energy sector.

Some of them were never really cut out for it, some should have retired 5 years ago but were riding the Big Build gravy train. Graduates can't find jobs. They're probably still on the skilled workers list.

 

[peetoo]

I wouldn't describe it as over. I'd say more slowing down. Some of that is just a natural drying up of work. The big stuff coming to an end.

Crossing removals for instance. There's not many of those big multi crossing type works left. Upfield line would be about it.

What's left is either not a priority or a complex removal.

It would still be wise to keep projects on the go though. You don't want to lose that knowledge base and skilled workforce

So many relocated to other states in the bailleu slowdown. Many still remember that