How the coalition can win the next Victorian election

[mikey127]

Bookies often know very little about politics when it comes to a general election. You can make good money from elections if you look at where bookies have screwed up their odds.

I agree and like I say I don't follow closely but from afar it does feel like the current QLD ALP government is a little on the nose but maybe I'm wrong and admittedly QLD and Vic are possibly the 2 most different states politically in Australia.

 

[geoffjennings79]

I know 17 seats is a lot but let's remember when the polls open everyone starts at zero.

Pesutto could be disposed but I think that would be a big mistake. Jess Wilson could be an option but don't know if she is experienced enough yet.

No, when polls open next election day, ALP start on 56, LNP on 28 and Greens on 4.

Which 17 seats do you think are likely to fall?

 

[mikey127]

No, when polls open next election day, ALP start on 56, LNP on 28 and Greens on 4.

Which 17 seats do you think are likely to fall?

No those are the current numbers. When polls open no one has voted so everyone starts on 0.

For the libs to win basically those seats along the Frankston train line have to swing is always a good rule of thumb for a Vic Election. Def think Pakenham, Hastings and Rippon go to the libs next state election. Interesting there us a lot of talk around Bendigo that Jacinta Allen's seat could be in play next election, however she has a very safe margin atm so I'd doubt that

 

[QuietB]

Pesutto and Deeming will be in a court room around the time of the next election. Hard to win from there.

 

[fs88]

All the Libs care about are rorting and lining their own pockets.

Despite numerous flaws, one of Labor’s best policies was the level crossing removals. The Libs would never dream of doing something like that in a billion years.

 

[Upgrayedd]

I think if they go back to a conservative leader they will be but Pesutto is moderate. Don't know about centralist voting greens, teal maybe but not greens.

I don't follow Queensland politics closely other than taking an interest in the Gabba rebuild but interesting that the libs are warm favourites to win QLD and bookies saying they are not without a chance in WA

The liberals got a historic bath in WA last election and current have half as much seats as the second biggest party in WA. who has 4, compared to labor which has 53.

Labor would have to have a 20% swing against them to lose. Roger cook could cancel every public holiday for the rest of the year and announce that NSW are our daddy's and would still win.

 

[mikey127]

The liberals got a historic bath in WA last election and current have half as much seats as the second biggest party in WA. who has 4, compared to labor which has 53.

Labor would have to have a 20% swing against them to lose. Roger cook could cancel every public holiday for the rest of the year and announce that NSW are our daddy's and would still win.

I Get as discussed here bookies don't always get it right but why do the have Labor at $1.50 in WA and not $1.1p like in Victoria?

 

[Romeoh1]

They can’t.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

And move socially back towards the center, rejecting the culture wars, while having a well developed economic plan which appeals to their base (and yes, probably with a bit of punching down - enough to be able to hold a majority and to differentiate from ALP but not so egregious as to cause people to realise what is going on). Potentially a good target would be the public service in the middle and upper management types without face to face public contact - they are soft target for budgetary pressures.

This sounds like wishcasting.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

A party of catfighting low flying rorting culture war obsessed incompetents, let by a wet lettuce leaf IPA guy, still trying to rebrand as "moderate" after taking part in disastrous episodes of race baiting?

They've got nothing to offer, because power and access to the public purse is all they aspire to.

Victoria has an ingrained hostility towards the LNP after recent decades, with age demographics skewing voting trends in a way that would be a challenge for a superstar candidate with a party at the top of their game. Each election and the year or two preceding we go through the same dance. So long as Labor maintain discipline and continue to actually have a policy platform and deliver on parts of it, they will be hard to unseat. If work is actually done on providing housing and improving material living standards for the unemployed, low and middle income voters and the states economy continues to diversify and/or tock along they should maintain government.

 

[RedStarUncle]

The liberals got a historic bath in WA last election and current have half as much seats as the second biggest party in WA. who has 4, compared to labor which has 53.

Labor would have to have a 20% swing against them to lose. Roger cook could cancel every public holiday for the rest of the year and announce that NSW are our daddy's and would still win.

McGowan wiped out a very unpopular Barnett government in 2017 getting a 13% swing. And then reinforced that with another 14% swing against the shambles WA Libs in 2021 and amidst massive popularity for how Covid was handled.

Roger Cook:
1) isn't McGowan who was in general very popular anyway
2) won't have the goodwill associated with managing Covid
3) may or may not be up against a WA Libs still in disarray / still controlled by the far-right Christian northern suburbs block


Combine those first 2 points with the fact that the big 2021 win was perceived as a little bit of "over-reward" for the ALP when the results came in, and I think it's not unreasonable that half of those 27% points since 2017 have already been lost again. If Libs can fix up the third point, the 20% the Libs needed isn't beyond fathomable.

I don't think Libs are on track to win in 2025, but I wouldn't by any means call them extinct in the West. Victoria probably the closest to a real case of a state that would never vote for the Libs in their current form rather than WA.

 

[Sttew]

If work is actually done on providing housing...they should maintain government.

How's the 800,000 new homes in 10 years going?

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

How's the 800,000 new homes in 10 years going?

How is it going?

 

[blueboy25]

When 2026 hits the Libs would of held power for just 4 of the last 27 years. Only chance they have is if people do a protest vote en masse if unhappy with the ALP.

Quite frankly the (usually correct) public perception of the Libs being the party for the rich old white guys like Gerry Harvey is not going to go away anytime soon. Especially in ever-growing green Melbourne.

The LNP need to stop dragging Johnny Howard out of his crypt every time their is an election and parading him around thinking he is going to sway voters to vote for them when in reality it is doing the opposite.

 

[Sttew]

How is it going?

Housing approvals in VIC down by almost 17% in January... not good I'd say.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

Housing approvals in VIC down by almost 17% in January... not good I'd say.

Well, we will find out in nearly a decade.

 

[Crankyhawk]

This sounds like wishcasting.

Gonna be honest what is wishcasting- get that there is a wish, is it portmanteau with broadcasting?

 

[QuietB]

McGowan wiped out a very unpopular Barnett government in 2017 getting a 13% swing. And then reinforced that with another 14% swing against the shambles WA Libs in 2021 and amidst massive popularity for how Covid was handled.

Roger Cook:
1) isn't McGowan who was in general very popular anyway
2) won't have the goodwill associated with managing Covid
3) may or may not be up against a WA Libs still in disarray / still controlled by the far-right Christian northern suburbs block


Combine those first 2 points with the fact that the big 2021 win was perceived as a little bit of "over-reward" for the ALP when the results came in, and I think it's not unreasonable that half of those 27% points since 2017 have already been lost again. If Libs can fix up the third point, the 20% the Libs needed isn't beyond fathomable.

I don't think Libs are on track to win in 2025, but I wouldn't by any means call them extinct in the West. Victoria probably the closest to a real case of a state that would never vote for the Libs in their current form rather than WA.

Isn't the problem the Liberal's face in WA that the state government is literally loaded with cash and as long as they keep spending it responsibly and WA keeps getting richer and richer there is no real reason to switch to the Liberal's unique brand of theocratic corruption.

 

[QuietB]

Housing approvals in VIC down by almost 17% in January... not good I'd say.

With a major builder going broke every other month that downturn has nothing to do with government policy.

 

[Saint]

The 4 pillars of state government

1. Law and order
2. Health
3. Education
4. Public Transport.

If the public perceives you as better than the other guys then you win.

Which one of these do the Libs not have a habit of stuffing up?

They've a long Victorian history of cutting in the health, education and PT sectors, leading to problems with Law and Order.

CityLink is a cash-cow for foreign investors, about the only thing a Liberal Govt ever tried to deliver.

Unlike at the Federal Level, Victorians still expect the Govt to run these services, not cut them to the bone to save a few bucks in the short term and cost more in the long term.

When you combine the negative Neo-liberal track record of old with the new-LNP social conservatism in a progressive state, I just can't see how it happens.

I think we'll see more votes for minor parties as people try to curtail the dictatorship of the ALP without being able to stomach voting Liberal.

Why exactly would anyone vote liberal in Victoria? What policies do they actually have?

 

[Sttew]

With a major builder going broke every other month that downturn has nothing to do with government policy.

But to pledge 80,000 new houses a year is on the government. It's not like builders only started going broke in 2024. And its not like the government didn't know what impact The Big Build is having on the construction industry when it came out with its audacious 'Housing Plan'.

If it has nothing to do with the government why is the downturn in Vic greater than anywhere else in the country?

 

[Sttew]

Why exactly would anyone vote liberal in Victoria?

The proof is in the eating of the pudding. You wouldn't vote LNP in Victoria at the moment. It will take a clean-out and an overhaul of policy, i.e., a decade. It's sad. But it's not unlike Labor in the 50's 60's and 70's in Vic. I know that was caused by the DLP split, but Labor was in the wilderness for 27 years

 

[RedStarUncle]

Isn't the problem the Liberal's face in WA that the state government is literally loaded with cash and as long as they keep spending it responsibly and WA keeps getting richer and richer there is no real reason to switch to the Liberal's unique brand of theocratic corruption.

WA is typically pretty anti-union / anti-ALP / generally right-leaning. So the Libs are usually the default preference as long as they keep the theocratic corruption to the fringes whereas last 10 years it's become a bit more in-your-face.

If they can re-create the veil of normalcy (e.g., by getting unthreatening celebrity types like Basil Zempilas front-and-centre) that'll just about claw WA back to a fifty-fifty bet. They do have the problem that the money is there and everyone knows it's there, which means they can't go with the usual attack on Labor "wastefulness". They might be able to drum up some feeling of a threat of job losses as a result of excessive royalties, and point to nickel mine closures and the Alcoa refinery shutdown as results of local economic management. Bit of a stretch, but WA won't need much prompting to throw out a Labor government.

It does come back to pivoting away from shadowy churchy types, but whereas Vics are a naturally Lib-skeptic electorate I'd describe WA as naturally ALP-skeptic.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I think you may need to squeeze in Taxes, Housing and Cost of Living in there somewhere and maybe drop Public Transport.

Admittedly I don't live there, but I would have thought public transport is a big consideration in a state as centralised as Victoria. It seemed to me that despite not being considered the best use of money by the experts, the Suburban Rail Loop has been a pretty potent weapon for Labor in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne, an area they have long struggled in.

 

[Saint]

Admittedly I don't live there, but I would have thought public transport is a big consideration in a state as centralised as Victoria. It seemed to me that despite not being considered the best use of money by the experts, the Suburban Rail Loop has been a pretty potent weapon for Labor in the eastern suburb of Melbourne, an area they have long struggled in.

I think it was the Level Crossing Removals which has won votes. At least they've done something. Metro and North East Link and WGTP will be finished before the next election, so the Eastern suburbs will be swimming with new connections.

The west will be at a standstill, though.

Unfortunately, the last time the LNP did anything with PT, it was to close a bunch of lines which are steadily planning to be re-opened.

The LNP has actually split in policy/practice, just not in name. And they won't be able to move on until they formally split. Unfortunately they might have left it so long that the blue-bloods who used to be the core of the party have mostly already left.

At least when the ALP split, they had the Union Movement to fall back on and re-emerge from.