The Way out? of this mess

[stfan]

Look while one can, and should, work on many things including player development to become a better team, I think we all know the key problem is our lack of quality mids.

One can also raise other positions, but they are not as critical as our midfield problem.

6 games this year have been lost by 10 points or less. We have not had an AFL quality midfield in one game this year. Improve that and we should win more games. Though we need to improve ia lot to become a true Top 4 Team, and to be Top 4 you will need the better ball use and decision making that some of our players around the ground lack.

Crouch was our best mid last year, and he has played part of 1 game.

Steele has not been the player he was..
In particular we lack the burst type mids. The club hoped that Dow may help, plus also Henry, and while both have offered glimpses, neither is anywhere near the gun burst players that most teams have, many having multiples of.


However while we all know what our Number One Problem is, the solution to it is not readily solvable for us.

Gun mids do not want to join us. The club may keep mentioning that it has a big war chest. Well guns from other clubs have shown that they are not joining us for money alone if they have other options, and true guns, or players that are likely to be guns, always have other options.

So that really means that we Dalrymple to draft for as well as he ever has.

This year and beyond he has to not only nail our first round pick (maybe two if Battle ) goes but we need him somehow find some more.

So the club is just going to have to keep churning through the draft to find them. I think the powers that be at St Kilda know this, and this is why it is clearly a club strategy at present to try and get the AFL to make the draft a fairer process.

That and maybe, just may a player from another club who is starved of opportunity.

Oh, and yes we have to hope like hell that Pou has a huge preseason and comes back with a man's body next season to be one of the gun mids that we so desperately need. If not, the just drafting kids to try and find the say 3 mids+ that we need is going to take years.

We probably also need Crouch do do a Lazarus and play good mid football for us for a year or too. Not sure his knee will allow him too though. Otherwise Pou if he does come back better is going have to try and carry our midfield group single handed, and that is not going to happen on a week in, week out basis.

 

[austinnn]

Good to read some people who can see what's going on and aren't listening to their mates or the media puppets tell us how shit they think we are. Thanks guys!

 

[gringo2011]

Look while one can, and should, work on many things including player development to become a better team, I think we all know the key problem is our lack of quality mids.

One can also raise other positions, but they are not as critical as our midfield problem.

6 games this year have been lost by 10 points or less. We have not had an AFL quality midfield in one game this year. Improve hat and we should win more games. Though you need to improve a lot to become a true Top 4 Team (and to be Top 4 you will need the better ball use and decision making that our players around the ground lack.

Crouch was our best mid last year , and he has played part of 1 game.

Steele has not been the player he was..
In particular we lack the burst type mids. The club hoped that Dow may help, plus also Henry, and while both have offered glimpses, neither is anywhere near the gun burst players that most teams have, many having multiples of.


However while we all know what our Number Problem is, the solution to it is not readily solvable for us.

Gun mids do not want to join us. The club may keep mentioning that it has a big war chest. Well guns from other clubs have shown that they are not joining us for money alone if they have other options, and true guns, or players that are likely to be guns, always have other options.

So that really means that we Dalrymple to draft for as well as he ever has.

This year and beyond he has to not only nail our first round pick (maybe two if Battle ) goes but we need him somehow find some more.

So the club is just going to have to keep churning through the draft to find them. I think the powers that be at St Kilda know this, and this is why it is clearly a club strategy at present to try and get the AFL to make the draft a fairer process.

That and maybe, just may a player from another club who is starved of opportunity.

Oh, and yes we have to hope like hell that Pou has a huge preseason and comes back with a man's body next season to be one of the gun mids that we so desperately need. If not, the just drafting kids to try and find the say 3 mids+ that we need is going to take years.

We probably also need Crouch do do a Lazarus and play good mid football for us for a year or too. Not sure his knee will allow him too though. Otherwise Pou if he does come back better is going have to try and carry our midfield group single handed, and that is not going to happen on a week in, week out basis.

This is 100% an issue but has been for 5 to 10 years. This year we saw it exposed with Crouch going down. Our depth in Henry and Dow also got injured so we saw how thin it actually is. Crouch and a fit Steele would have got us through a season and probably had us around the same level as last year but now we have a crushed Steele and it looks like we need to replace Crouch. Hopefully with an elite extractor.

Like everything sometimes that stuff is a bonus long term. We have pushed games into Windhager and found that his tagging game is a weapon and the exposure will hopefully make them actually address an issue that was there all along.

Small forward depth is an issue too. Maybe more so. Butler and Collard are the only players on the list. Butler is getting injury prone and Collard looks a couple of years off playing solid senior footy.

 

[cartwright]

Good to read some people who can see what's going on and aren't listening to their mates or the media puppets tell us how shit they think we are. Thanks guys!

Media need to fill their stories for the week.
If we kicked 1 more goal to beat Port, they’d be the flavour of the week.

 

[ScrappyDo]

This is 100% an issue but has been for 5 to 10 years. This year we saw it exposed with Crouch going down. Our depth in Henry and Dow also got injured so we saw how thin it actually is. Crouch and a fit Steele would have got us through a season and probably had us around the same level as last year but now we have a crushed Steele and it looks like we need to replace Crouch. Hopefully with an elite extractor.

Like everything sometimes that stuff is a bonus long term. We have pushed games into Windhager and found that his tagging game is a weapon and the exposure will hopefully make them actually address an issue that was there all along.

Small forward depth is an issue too. Maybe more so. Butler and Collard are the only players on the list. Butler is getting injury prone and Collard looks a couple of years off playing solid senior footy.

With this recognition, why are you now so dark on Lyon.

Senior players:
Crouch - best clearance player, out injured
Membrey - senior KPF, cooked
Ross - cooked
Jones - cooked
Doogs - injuries
Jweb - 7 weeks suspension
Stocker - injured
Wood - x weeks injured
Butts - x weeks injured
Hunter - x weeks injured

New recruits:
Henry - 7 weeks injured / 2 weeks form
Dow - 8 weeks injured / form
Bonner - depth at best, defensive liability

Out of form:
Steele
King
Chito
Byrnes
Pou (never got more than 15 anyway)

1st year players:
Wilson - 15 games
Hugo - 5 games*
Hastie - 5 games*
Collard - 3 games*
Ari - 2 games

I honestly think that's a pretty massive shit sandwich to deal with yet we've had only 1 bad loss againt the dogs.

Those momentum killing losses were a regular occurrence under Richo and Ratts and they're basically gone now which IMHO means they've reset the floor.
Season is shot and the more mentally delicate players are a bit despondent but realistically it's better than finishing 9th.
I'm assuming those cooked seniors will be delisted now and we've known our "leadership" was poor for a long time. It's all just happened in this season, probably 12-18 months sooner than ideally anticipated and Crouch has been a massive massive loss.
Finally the club isn't hiding from the truth or looking for some cheap wins and our reality is laid bare. We've known the midfield was suspect and forward entries shithouse for a long time and we're finally having to take our medicine.

 

[The Punter]

The leadership question is an interesting one.

Ross Lyon was gifted a very good leadership situation when he first arrived at St Kilda. It was Grant Thomas' greatest legacy. There were three or four blokes who would easily captain any side.

But no one new really developed during his time, depending on how you feel about McEvoy (who may have been a born not made leader). I think the same thing happened at Fremantle, where Pavlich was already there. When Pav retired it went to Mundy for a year before Fyfe, a classic "make the best player the captain" move. Fyfe is not your prototypical leader type.

Steele has not thrived with the sole captaincy, although other issues may be at play there. There is no obvious alternative, but there are a few who somewhat fill the criteria. And no real evidence of developing leadership.

 

[gringo2011]

With this recognition, why are you now so dark on Lyon.

Senior players:
Crouch - best clearance player, out injured
Membrey - senior KPF, cooked
Ross - cooked
Jones - cooked
Doogs - injuries
Jweb - 7 weeks suspension
Stocker - injured
Wood - x weeks injured
Butts - x weeks injured
Hunter - x weeks injured

New recruits:
Henry - 7 weeks injured / 2 weeks form
Dow - 8 weeks injured / form
Bonner - depth at best, defensive liability

Out of form:
Steele
King
Chito
Byrnes
Pou (never got more than 15 anyway)

1st year players:
Wilson - 15 games
Hugo - 5 games*
Hastie - 5 games*
Collard - 3 games*
Ari - 2 games

I honestly think that's a pretty massive shit sandwich to deal with yet we've had only 1 bad loss againt the dogs.

Those momentum killing losses were a regular occurrence under Richo and Ratts and they're basically gone now which IMHO means they've reset the floor.
Season is shot and the more mentally delicate players are a bit despondent but realistically it's better than finishing 9th.
I'm assuming those cooked seniors will be delisted now and we've known our "leadership" was poor for a long time. It's all just happened in this season, probably 12-18 months sooner than ideally anticipated and Crouch has been a massive massive loss.
Finally the club isn't hiding from the truth or looking for some cheap wins and our reality is laid bare. We've known the midfield was suspect and forward entries shithouse for a long time and we're finally having to take our medicine.

I’m not against Lyon. I’m against stupid people that think we have to keep him with no KPIs. If he can’t turn it around he’s as vulnerable as anybody. He’s got excuses this year but if he can’t turn it around and starts culling players to buy time we have to lance him.


His game style is horrific if we aren’t winning too. It’s the least enjoyable footy I’ve ever watched.

 

[gringo2011]

With this recognition, why are you now so dark on Lyon.

Senior players:
Crouch - best clearance player, out injured
Membrey - senior KPF, cooked
Ross - cooked
Jones - cooked
Doogs - injuries
Jweb - 7 weeks suspension
Stocker - injured
Wood - x weeks injured
Butts - x weeks injured
Hunter - x weeks injured

New recruits:
Henry - 7 weeks injured / 2 weeks form
Dow - 8 weeks injured / form
Bonner - depth at best, defensive liability

Out of form:
Steele
King
Chito
Byrnes
Pou (never got more than 15 anyway)

1st year players:
Wilson - 15 games
Hugo - 5 games*
Hastie - 5 games*
Collard - 3 games*
Ari - 2 games

I honestly think that's a pretty massive shit sandwich to deal with yet we've had only 1 bad loss againt the dogs.

Those momentum killing losses were a regular occurrence under Richo and Ratts and they're basically gone now which IMHO means they've reset the floor.
Season is shot and the more mentally delicate players are a bit despondent but realistically it's better than finishing 9th.
I'm assuming those cooked seniors will be delisted now and we've known our "leadership" was poor for a long time. It's all just happened in this season, probably 12-18 months sooner than ideally anticipated and Crouch has been a massive massive loss.
Finally the club isn't hiding from the truth or looking for some cheap wins and our reality is laid bare. We've known the midfield was suspect and forward entries shithouse for a long time and we're finally having to take our medicine.

And those forwards can’t all be cooked. That’s St Kilda more than the forwards IMO.

 

[ScrappyDo]

And those forwards can’t all be cooked. That’s St Kilda more than the forwards IMO.

Membrey seems cooked, but it's probably mentally. The rest will be ok.

 

[saint_]

Whatever happens, they need to change the forwards coach because the current system isn't working. Team possession per game is around the league average, so we are still getting a fair share of the ball. All scoring metrics is bottom 4 in he league. Shots on goal is bottom 4, goals scored from entry is bottom 2. Marks on the lead is dead last in the comp. That is probably no surprise as we usually play a more counter-attacking style of play due to our lack of midfield talent. But I would say our forwards are partially to blame too because we are still getting the ball inside our forward line 50 times a game.

It's the lack of connection from our midfield to our forwards that is evidently bad but also the lack of forward craft from our forwards that I feel that the team is struggling to score. Jack Higgins is probably the only one that is going better than his previous year's tally based on form.

 

[Max the great]

Accept the list needs around a 50% cull. We have too many inconsistent players and I’m not talking about the kids.
Guys like Clark, Dow, Ross are not taking us anywhere. Yes we need some experience but we can’t keep them all. I’d get rid of a couple and have Steele and Windy as the main stays in the middle despite how poor we were today. Get Pou back in the team as soon as he is ready. Get games into Garcia and get a look at Hall.

Every year everyone on this board wants some recycled hack. Look where it has got us. Rebuild.

On SM-S928B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Saintscomemarchingin]

A somewhat of a team 23? for next year without drafted or traded in players.

Have excluded Battle & King as being traded?

B. Wilkie Caminiti ???

H.B. Bonner Sch'maker Hastie

C. Henry Garcia NWM

H.F. Butler Marshall Wilson

F. Higgins Keeler Wood

Foll. Heath Steele Sinclair

I/C. Hill, Owens, Phillipou, Windhager, Clark or Hall-sub

Reserves:

B. McLennan Van Es ???

H.B. O'Connell Howard ???

C. Byrnes Crouch ???

H.F. ??? Cordy Hotton

F. Collard Sharman ???

Foll. ??? Dow Hall

I/C. Who ?????

 

[gringo2011]

Every year everyone on this board wants some recycled hack. Look where it has got us. Rebuild.

On SM-S928B using BigFooty.com mobile app

We got where we are by being the worst side at drafting for the last 20 years and having nothing to show for all of those national drafts and then on top of that we paid draft and trade capital to attract GOPs who were either injury busts or paid like superstars with minimal impact.

The system is set up so that the draft is so compromised that drafting alone won't let you bridge the gap. You need really smart recruiting.

Pies got a leg up with their FS picks but guys like Howe, Crisp, Hoskin-Elliott, Hill, Krueger, Lipinski, Long, Markov, Mihocek, Schultz, Johnson, Frampton, Mitchell, Mc Stay, Cameron, Bytel, Dean, Sullivan etc are all ring ins. Not many were high profile pick ups. They grabbed them when they were semi developed players. They also have a few rookies like the cricketer kid and Cox that aren't traditional pathways.

 

[Max the great]

We got where we are by being the worst side at drafting for the last 20 years and having nothing to show for all of those national drafts and then on top of that we paid draft and trade capital to attract GOPs who were either injury busts or paid like superstars with minimal impact.

The system is set up so that the draft is so compromised that drafting alone won't let you bridge the gap. You need really smart recruiting.

Pies got a leg up with their FS picks but guys like Howe, Crisp, Hoskin-Elliott, Hill, Krueger, Lipinski, Long, Markov, Mihocek, Schultz, Johnson, Frampton, Mitchell, Mc Stay, Cameron, Bytel, Dean, Sullivan etc are all ring ins. Not many were high profile pick ups. They grabbed them when they were semi developed players. They also have a few rookies like the cricketer kid and Cox that aren't traditional pathways.

Why do you think we are drafting mid round every season? Because we thought list cloggers from other clubs would take us to the promised land. Recipe for disaster.
You then draft 7 and 8 which is a raffle.

 

[Saintscomemarchingin]

As well as recruiting the right kids & getting rid of the old nags, we could top up with creme of the crop state players. Just on one year contracts. Rather than take a punt on a young kid late in the draft, a bit risky but ?

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Why do you think we are drafting mid round every season? Because we thought list cloggers from other clubs would take us to the promised land. Recipe for disaster.
You then draft 7 and 8 which is a raffle.

Picking up Mason Wood was probably inspired.

Then excited at our drafting ability we got Stocker, Collard, Cordy, Dow......

 

[Jade Buddha]

Start winning. Works for me.

 

[Saint Watto]

With this recognition, why are you now so dark on Lyon.

Senior players:
Crouch - best clearance player, out injured
Membrey - senior KPF, cooked
Ross - cooked
Jones - cooked
Doogs - injuries
Jweb - 7 weeks suspension
Stocker - injured
Wood - x weeks injured
Butts - x weeks injured
Hunter - x weeks injured

New recruits:
Henry - 7 weeks injured / 2 weeks form
Dow - 8 weeks injured / form
Bonner - depth at best, defensive liability

Out of form:
Steele
King
Chito
Byrnes
Pou (never got more than 15 anyway)

1st year players:
Wilson - 15 games
Hugo - 5 games*
Hastie - 5 games*
Collard - 3 games*
Ari - 2 games

I honestly think that's a pretty massive shit sandwich to deal with yet we've had only 1 bad loss againt the dogs.

Those momentum killing losses were a regular occurrence under Richo and Ratts and they're basically gone now which IMHO means they've reset the floor.
Season is shot and the more mentally delicate players are a bit despondent but realistically it's better than finishing 9th.
I'm assuming those cooked seniors will be delisted now and we've known our "leadership" was poor for a long time. It's all just happened in this season, probably 12-18 months sooner than ideally anticipated and Crouch has been a massive massive loss.
Finally the club isn't hiding from the truth or looking for some cheap wins and our reality is laid bare. We've known the midfield was suspect and forward entries shithouse for a long time and we're finally having to take our medicine.

A great post there SD.

Looking at all your facts laid out....it's truly sobering as what this year has dished up.

It's actually amazing that we've "been in" so many games for the time we have.

As you mentioned ......the only blow out was that horror night against the Dogs.

The players were cooked by that game.

From memory....Michito-san usually averages approx 40 pressure acts a game.....he had 10 that night.

Depending on what benchmark number you want to use......I'll go for 4 goals.....we've had 7 games where we've lost by 20 points or less.

I'm cautiously confident(usually wildly misplaced) about the future.

 

[ScrappyDo]

A great post there SD.

Looking at all your facts laid out....it's truly sobering as what this year has dished up.

It's actually amazing that we've "been in" so many games for the time we have.

As you mentioned ......the only blow out was that horror night against the Dogs.

The players were cooked by that game.

From memory....Michito-san usually averages approx 40 pressure acts a game.....he had 10 that night.

Depending on what benchmark number you want to use......I'll go for 4 goals.....we've had 7 games where we've lost by 20 points or less.

I'm cautiously confident(usually wildly misplaced) about the future.

Thanks Watto.
That Dogs game the club came out the week before to temper expectations after l think 3 games in 12 days and 2-3 interstate trips. They could obviously see it in the track and knew it was coming.

Somewhere theres a couple off key metrics that shows that teams who have the highest number of games played together as a group are always the ones in contention, which expresses long term continuity.
The other is the number of players used in a season ie injuries and youth development, which expresses short term continuity.

Between the two they are the best predictors of premiership eligible clubs in any given year.
I don't know where we sit on that scale but you can bet it's in the bottom 30% and the only way to climb is to wait.
This is why l don't get caught up in the craziness. The numbers say we aren't ready, EOS for me.
Until theres sufficient continuities there's no point looking for those elite FA's unless they dont damage continuity by way of their number of years left playing or the robust base within the current list.
In such, we can look at players like Doogs and say yes to trading. The likes of Battle and Steele are preferred as keepers.

 

[BrutThough]

The bulls*t thing about the Dogs game is the AFLPA rules actually dont allow 3 games and 2 trades in 12 days, yet we got it anyway and nothing got changed when the club complained about it.

 

[Saint Watto]

Thanks Watto.
That Dogs game the club came out the week before to temper expectations after l think 3 games in 12 days and 2-3 interstate trips. They could obviously see it in the track and knew it was coming.

Somewhere theres a couple off key metrics that shows that teams who have the highest number of games played together as a group are always the ones in contention, which expresses long term continuity.
The other is the number of players used in a season ie injuries and youth development, which expresses short term continuity.

Between the two they are the best predictors of premiership eligible clubs in any given year.
I don't know where we sit on that scale but you can bet it's in the bottom 30% and the only way to climb is to wait.
This is why l don't get caught up in the craziness. The numbers say we aren't ready, EOS for me.
Until theres sufficient continuities there's no point looking for those elite FA's unless they dont damage continuity by way of their number of years left playing or the robust base within the current list.
In such, we can look at players like Doogs and say yes to trading. The likes of Battle and Steele are preferred as keepers.

Another great post there SD.

The continuity numbers are the ones I always keep an eye on.

It's usually the absolute key for the flag winners....take our 2009 season....minimal injuries/a settled playing list.....an absolute dream run.

if your a very good to excellent side.....continuity of your players SHOULD(not always....gulp) get you that big shiny cup.

I was talking about this very subject to a Bloos fan last night while watching the game(he used to be an extremely arrogant Bloos fan but has been very subdued from 2000 to 2023....funny about that)

He said he's very hopeful this year due to the continuity of the playing list.

I hate to say it....but a very good list.

 

[MrFoster]

We will never catch North in a draft led rebuild, people have been shitting on me for saying the same thing for 10 years. This is the insanity. The old guys retire and Battle, King and Snags are the only decent mid 20s players we have. We will bottom out just at Tassie hits and takes all the draft capital. It's like we timed this to absolutely crash the club. The president being obsessed with draft concessions says that they think we are bottoming out IMO.

We have totally ****ed the timing so need to try to build around what we have. We already have a lot of youth, we need to keep adding high picks and finding existing cheap talent and hope we look good enough to attract quality FAs and trades.

Draft is not the only way, need clever trading/ Usage of FA, this is where SOS, Dayrymple and Alan is here for.. Now looks like we know what to do (which deadwood to get rid off), let’s see what we can do in 1-2 years..

 

[Saint Watto]

The bulls*t thing about the Dogs game is the AFLPA rules actually dont allow 3 games and 2 trades in 12 days, yet we got it anyway and nothing got changed when the club complained about it.

That was a real kick in the guts for the club.

They were the rules but "nothing to see here"

Move on Saints.....deal with it....your a small club(that was the perception)

I believe that the club met with the AFL shortly after that colossal F*** up and the club made it's feelings known loud and clear.


I also believe that we were assured that it won't happen again.

It's the AFL....surely you take their word to the bank !!!!!!

Come on....it's the AFL.

 

[ScrappyDo]

That was a real kick in the guts for the club.

They were the rules but "nothing to see here"

Move on Saints.....deal with it....your a small club(that was the perception)

I believe that the club met with the AFL shortly after that colossal F*** up and the club made it's feelings known loud and clear.


I also believe that we were assured that it won't happen again.

It's the AFL....surely you take their word to the bank !!!!!!

Come on....it's the AFL.

We should have just said no.

 

[mad-saint-guy]

This is how I'd like to see us line up at the beginning of next season

B: Stocker, Howard, Wilkie
HB: Sinclair, Caminiti, NWM
C: Hill, Steele, Henry
HF: Higgins, King, Wilson
F: Butler, Sharman, Keeler/Heath

Foll: Marshall, Owens, Windhager
Int: Pou, Wood, Schoenmaker, Pick 4
Sub: Pick 5

Picks 4 and 5 were the best mids available