Tour de France 2024
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With Girmay falling off and Phillipsen winning, it's now game on for the green jersey. The two are now only separated by 32 points. However, there are no more stages with a sprint finish, so it all comes down to the intermediate sprints in the final few stages. There's no chance of them taking any points on Stage 20, so Phillipsen & Alpecin have 3x stages in which to take back 32 points (33 to be safe) on Girmay.
Stage 17
The intermediate sprint comes in the middle of the stage, 114.8 km into the 177.8 km stage. The stage is backloaded with a Cat 1 & Cat 2 climb, finishing on top of a Cat 3 climb - but all of these come after the intermediate sprint. Normally this would be a classic breakaway stage - the final climb isn't big enough to get the GC riders excited for a showdown, and it's waaay too nasty for the sprinters to be getting excited. However, with Alpecin likely keeping the bunch together until after the IS, will it be too late for riders to get motivated to form a late breakaway? I guess the corollary of this is how much effort Alpecin are willing/able to put in, preventing breakaways forming and going away before the IS?
Stage 18
Again, it's a natural breakaway stage, with 4x Cat 3 climbs scattered along the length of the course. The IS comes between the 2nd & 3rd Cat 3 climbs, with a couple of other uncategorised climbs thrown in for good measure. This stage represents a real challenge for Alpecin. If they push hard enough to prevent breakaways forming, they are likely to send Phillipsen out the back door, particularly on the 1st of the Cat 3 climbs (3.9 km @ 6.3%).
Stage 19
The stage is a shocker for the sprinters, with 2x HC and 1x Cat 1 climb... but the IS comes only 21.1 km into the stage, just before they start the climb up the HC Col de Vars. Alpecin should be able to hold the peleton together long enough to race for maximum points in the IS on this stage, and there's plenty of time for a breakaway to form afterwards (though the break will be doomed to failure, as Visma will have to keep pushing to take back time on Pog).
Stage 20
The sprinters can forget about this stage. The IS comes after a Cat 2 and 2x Cat 1 climbs. They won't be scoring ANY points on this stage.
Stage 21
There are actually points on offer for the TT, and I have memories of Peter Sagan turning himself inside out in an attempt to claim points in a TT at Mont Saint Michel in 2013 (he finished 17th on the stage, ahead of Rogers & Evans, and only 3 seconds behind Contador). However, there's a Cat 2 climb in the middle of this TT, so there's no chance of Phillipsen trying to be a hero like Sagan was.
I can see Alpecin ruining Stage 17 for the breakaway, keeping them in check until the final 60 km, which is far too late for them to build a decent advantage over the peleton. Stage 19 will definitely see them racing for maximum points. The really interesting one will be Stage 18, which will really challenge both Phillipsen and the whole Alpecin team.
So far we've only had 1 successful breakaway since the Tour returned to French soil - Stage 9, across the gravel roads. Stages 17 & 18 are designed for breakaways, and it would be a tragedy to see them ruined by Alpecin trying to win Green for Phillipsen. That said, it could be fun to watch them fall apart on the hills in Stage 18.
** Girmay is also a better climber than Phillipsen, which makes Stage 18 even more interesting. Alpecin somehow need to ride hard enough to prevent a breakaway forming, without burning Phillipsen in the process, knowing that Girmay would likely take full advantage if they send Phillipsen out the back.
Stage 17
The intermediate sprint comes in the middle of the stage, 114.8 km into the 177.8 km stage. The stage is backloaded with a Cat 1 & Cat 2 climb, finishing on top of a Cat 3 climb - but all of these come after the intermediate sprint. Normally this would be a classic breakaway stage - the final climb isn't big enough to get the GC riders excited for a showdown, and it's waaay too nasty for the sprinters to be getting excited. However, with Alpecin likely keeping the bunch together until after the IS, will it be too late for riders to get motivated to form a late breakaway? I guess the corollary of this is how much effort Alpecin are willing/able to put in, preventing breakaways forming and going away before the IS?
Stage 18
Again, it's a natural breakaway stage, with 4x Cat 3 climbs scattered along the length of the course. The IS comes between the 2nd & 3rd Cat 3 climbs, with a couple of other uncategorised climbs thrown in for good measure. This stage represents a real challenge for Alpecin. If they push hard enough to prevent breakaways forming, they are likely to send Phillipsen out the back door, particularly on the 1st of the Cat 3 climbs (3.9 km @ 6.3%).
Stage 19
The stage is a shocker for the sprinters, with 2x HC and 1x Cat 1 climb... but the IS comes only 21.1 km into the stage, just before they start the climb up the HC Col de Vars. Alpecin should be able to hold the peleton together long enough to race for maximum points in the IS on this stage, and there's plenty of time for a breakaway to form afterwards (though the break will be doomed to failure, as Visma will have to keep pushing to take back time on Pog).
Stage 20
The sprinters can forget about this stage. The IS comes after a Cat 2 and 2x Cat 1 climbs. They won't be scoring ANY points on this stage.
Stage 21
There are actually points on offer for the TT, and I have memories of Peter Sagan turning himself inside out in an attempt to claim points in a TT at Mont Saint Michel in 2013 (he finished 17th on the stage, ahead of Rogers & Evans, and only 3 seconds behind Contador). However, there's a Cat 2 climb in the middle of this TT, so there's no chance of Phillipsen trying to be a hero like Sagan was.
I can see Alpecin ruining Stage 17 for the breakaway, keeping them in check until the final 60 km, which is far too late for them to build a decent advantage over the peleton. Stage 19 will definitely see them racing for maximum points. The really interesting one will be Stage 18, which will really challenge both Phillipsen and the whole Alpecin team.
So far we've only had 1 successful breakaway since the Tour returned to French soil - Stage 9, across the gravel roads. Stages 17 & 18 are designed for breakaways, and it would be a tragedy to see them ruined by Alpecin trying to win Green for Phillipsen. That said, it could be fun to watch them fall apart on the hills in Stage 18.
** Girmay is also a better climber than Phillipsen, which makes Stage 18 even more interesting. Alpecin somehow need to ride hard enough to prevent a breakaway forming, without burning Phillipsen in the process, knowing that Girmay would likely take full advantage if they send Phillipsen out the back.
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eth-dog
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I think it's more likely that Philipsen and Girmay both make sure they're in the break tonight. Alpecin don't want those competing for 3rd (Coqard, Turgis and De Lie) muddying up the sprint. If Girmay makes the break and Philipsen doesn't I'd expect them to try to bring the break back though.
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Stage 17 Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux > Superdévoluy
As the race homes in on the southern Alps, there will be no significant obstacles crossing the Drôme. The tests beyond that, though, are likely to encourage the formation of a large breakaway group, whose members will have a chance to shine, assuming they can deal with the climbs in the final 40 kilometres. We’ll get a clearer idea of this on the ascent of the Col Bayard, although the final selection should be made on the Col du Noyer (7.5km at 8.4%), with the final decision coming on the approach to the Superdévoluy ski station.
As the race homes in on the southern Alps, there will be no significant obstacles crossing the Drôme. The tests beyond that, though, are likely to encourage the formation of a large breakaway group, whose members will have a chance to shine, assuming they can deal with the climbs in the final 40 kilometres. We’ll get a clearer idea of this on the ascent of the Col Bayard, although the final selection should be made on the Col du Noyer (7.5km at 8.4%), with the final decision coming on the approach to the Superdévoluy ski station.
His gap to Remco is already just under 2 minutes (1:58), with 2 more big mountain summit finishes to come. All evidence suggests that he'll be leading Remco by around 4 minutes going into the final TT.
The top 3 appear set, barring anything unforeseen (illness or a crash).
However, there's still only 33 seconds separating Almeida, Landa, and Rodriguez in 4th, 5th, and 6th. The battle between these riders should go down to the wire.
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- Apr 22, 2017
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I don't know if you've watched the end the stage last night but all evidence suggests he can't follow Remco on a cat 3 climb right now.
I didn't watch it last night - will watch the highlights package this afternoon.
Vingegaard has put time into him on all of the big climbs to date, and I expect the same to happen on Friday & Saturday nights.
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Stage 18 Gap > Barcelonnette
The altimeter drops temporarily, although the sprinters will still have to go right to their limits in order to claim the final bouquet within their grasp. That’s down to the fact that once the peloton has admired Lake Serre-Ponçon, the day’s attackers will have a few hills to exploit as they seek to maintain their lead. A strong puncheur might be able to go clear on the Côte de Saint-Apollinaire, and they’ll even more opportunity to do so on the Côte des Demoiselles Coiffées.
The altimeter drops temporarily, although the sprinters will still have to go right to their limits in order to claim the final bouquet within their grasp. That’s down to the fact that once the peloton has admired Lake Serre-Ponçon, the day’s attackers will have a few hills to exploit as they seek to maintain their lead. A strong puncheur might be able to go clear on the Côte de Saint-Apollinaire, and they’ll even more opportunity to do so on the Côte des Demoiselles Coiffées.
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Remco is going really well but I wouldn’t read too much in it in terms of beating Jonas. If yesterday’s stage was a one day race Pog would the only rider I’d have favourite to beat Remco. Add in Jonas looked to blow himself up trying to match Pog’s attack.
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Thought Campernaerts looked knackered, let alone sprinting against Kwiatkowski but he played that sprint perfectly making him chase Vercher down.
I like how Gerrans is talking about the nature of the roads coming up and where they might attack, it's what he should be doing more of given he rode these roads for years.
I like how Gerrans is talking about the nature of the roads coming up and where they might attack, it's what he should be doing more of given he rode these roads for years.
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Stage 19 Embrun > Isola 2000
The menu for this ultra-mountain stage could well make you dizzy, but it’ll also whet the appetite of the very best climbers. Although the stage is less than 150km long, the riders will climb above 2,000 metres on three occasions, the biggest test the climb to the summit of La Bonette, the highest road in France at an altitude of 2,802 metres. Its 360-degree panorama is breath-taking.
The menu for this ultra-mountain stage could well make you dizzy, but it’ll also whet the appetite of the very best climbers. Although the stage is less than 150km long, the riders will climb above 2,000 metres on three occasions, the biggest test the climb to the summit of La Bonette, the highest road in France at an altitude of 2,802 metres. Its 360-degree panorama is breath-taking.
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So after Peter Siddle we get Cadel Evans in the SBS booth. Bloke always sounds like he's on the edge of a breakdown.
Jonas being isolated with 65 km to go is not good, Visma might need to get their blokes in the breakaway to sit up.
Jonas being isolated with 65 km to go is not good, Visma might need to get their blokes in the breakaway to sit up.
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Watching Pogacar chase down the breakaway on this climb is amazing.
