Tour de France 2024

[HirdsTheWord]

there is a couple of juicy little decents in tonight's stage.

Break away can win this stage

 

[HirdsTheWord]

The big question from last night is whether Pog's fade out was temporary (i.e. hunger flat) or due to the accumulated fatigue from racing the Giro?

Jonas has admitted that he was surprised that Pog didn't put lengths into him in the sprints for both the KotM on the last climb and the finish line. Pog was just lacking his usual punch. Why?

As Orange Agent says, we'll know more after the weekend. If Pog continues to fade, then it will become obvious that he's suffering the fatigue effects of backing up from the Giro. If he rides away again, like he did on the Puy Mary, then it will be clear that his problems last night were just due to a lack of food & water while on the course.

Even with a fading Pog, there are still only two plausible winners for this year's Tour - Jonas & Pog. Roglic & Evenepoul simply can't go with them on the climbs, and there are still 4x HC/Cat1 summit finishes to come.

you'd think Tadej and Jonas come in even footing though.

Tadej smoked the Giro sure, so could be tired, but Jonas isn't "match fit" following his crash.

Jonas big weapon last year was the time trial, he was significantly off the pace in the Stage 7 TT thus far.

That being said Jonas has shored up as favored in the betting now, Tadej was heavy favorite pre-race.

 

[Vader]

you'd think Tadej and Jonas come in even footing though.

Tadej smoked the Giro sure, so could be tired, but Jonas isn't "match fit" following his crash.

Jonas big weapon last year was the time trial, he was significantly off the pace in the Stage 7 TT thus far.

That being said Jonas has shored up as favored in the betting now, Tadej was heavy favorite pre-race.

View attachment 2045088

The difference is that Jonas would be gaining "match fitness" as the race progresses, while Pog's fatigue would just continue to accumulate. It's a big unknown.

Last year there was only 1 TT, which had a Cat 2 climb near the end. That suited Jonas perfectly. This year we have 2x TTs. The first was relatively flat, which suited Remco better than Jonas. The second, coming on stage 21, has a Cat 2 climb in the middle of it, so expect Jonas to perform better there.

Most of Pog's 2023 time losses happened on stage 17, a mountain stage to Courchevel. Pog blew up relatively early on that stage, with the famous "I'm dead" call to his team car. He lost 5:45 on that stage. Jonas' final margin was 7:29. The mountain TT was just the icing on the cake.

Jonas big weapon last year was his team, which allowed him to wear Pog out, before attacking him. Unfortunately, most of his 2022 & 2023 team are watching the race on TV, or only half fit (e.g. WVA). This year it's Pog's UAE team who are the strongest in the race, and that obviously throws another spanner in the works.

All in all, it's setup for a juicy last week - with 4x mountain top finishes (Cat 1 or HC) that will answer all of the questions we still have about both riders.

I don't believe Jonas can do a LeMond, taking enough time back in a Stage 21 TT to seize the yellow jersey. I think he can beat Pog in the final TT, but not by enough to clear the current gap. He will need to attack him in the mountains if he wants to get that time back. This is where Pog's teammates come into play, chasing down his attacks - assuming that Jonas isn't just too strong for them to keep up with him.

 

[largebus]

Roglic caught up in another crash and can barely ride, he's done. I talked him up against Remco and this is what happens.
What is Bora doing that far down close to the finish

Drizner looked he might've done a collarbone

 

[eth-dog]

Roglic caught up in another crash and can barely ride, he's done. I talked him up against Remco and this is what happens.

Drizner looked he might've done a collarbone

Like he did nothing wrong. I swear he walked under a ladder into a black cat's path whilst breaking a mirror all at once in a previous life.

 

[99 Problems]

Girmay 3 stage wins and 2 seconds. Only other finish in a sprint was 9th in the chaos when Cav won. He is dominating the sprint field.

 

[eth-dog]

Green is over. Biniam has it as long as he finishes.

 

[Over The Post]

Stage 13 Agen > Pau

The Lot-et-Garonne serves up some lovely balcony roads early in the stage, when the formation of the breakaway will be closely monitored by the sprinters’ teams, who will have studied the route carefully. If they judge their effort correctly, they won’t be caught out by the day’s escapees. However, amidst the hilly terrain approaching the finish, the Blachon and Simacourbe climbs could pose a problem for those sprinters who don’t feel comfortable in the hills.





Been really busy the last couple of days, I'll try to keep ahead of things now!

 

[99 Problems]

The break will be hoping Yates drops off soon as they will win the stage if Visma don’t need to chase. Unforgivable for Jayco to miss that move.

They won’t have many friends at the end of the day but smart from UAE making Visma burn some matches.

 

[largebus]

Unsurprisingly Rogla did not start today.

 

[Over The Post]

Stage 14 Pau > Saint-Lary-Soulan Pla d’Adet

The dynamic format of the first Pyrenean stage is accentuated by the fact that battle is unlikely to commence until the riders have gone through Lourdes. From that point, with 80 kilometres remaining, there’ll be a festival of climbing, featuring the Col du Tourmalet, the Hourquette d’Ancizan and the climb to Pla d’Adet. Fifty years on, the finish line will be exactly where it was when Raymond Poulidor celebrated victory in the 1974 Tour.

 

[eth-dog]

Tour-ma-let tourmalet tourmalet!

 

[Over The Post]

So who caused the crash in the sprint yesterday? The lead-out guy pulling off to the side, or the rider trying to sneak up on the barriers?

 

[Orange Agent]

So who caused the crash in the sprint yesterday? The lead-out guy pulling off to the side, or the rider trying to sneak up on the barriers?

The lead out guy.

 

[Orange Agent]

Was thinking tonight will be a nothing stage but after yesterday who knows. I still have no idea why Pog was sprinting for a top 10 place.

 

[largebus]

So who caused the crash in the sprint yesterday? The lead-out guy pulling off to the side, or the rider trying to sneak up on the barriers?

Van Gils is lucky not to get thrown out of the race. 1500 swiss francs and 60 UCI points is light.

Capiot abandoned after a few kms today and could barely get off his bike.

 

[largebus]

Wow UAE actually using good tactics this time.

 

[Orange Agent]

The plan and the execution 10/10.

 

[largebus]

I think they would've hoped Yates could've paced Pog for another few hundred metres but he just blew Jonas away anyway.

 

[Orange Agent]

I thought at the bottom of the final climb UAE had burnt too many guys. The Yates move was the killer.

 

[eth-dog]

UAE finally tried something different and it worked.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

bit of a disaster for jonas to lose that much time.

now almost 2 mins down with 3 mountain stages left

He will need to attack next stage - he needs to start gaining time back

 

[Over The Post]

Stage 15 Loudenvielle > Plateau de Beille

The third Sunday of the Tour could prove crucial. Whatever’s happened on the previous days in the mountains, the terrain on this stage is ripe for revenge or confirmation, with 4,850 metres of vertical gain on the menu over almost 200 kilometres of racing. All manner of scenarios could play out, and it’s not unrealistic to imagine that team-mates of the GC contenders will attempt to infiltrate the breakaway climbing the Peyresourde. That would prove invaluable given what lies ahead, especially in a finale that features the climbs of the Col d’Agnes and the Port de Lers followed by the final haul up to Plateau de Beille.

 

[DEVO]

That was an incredible final climb from TP and UAE team, TP’s ability to close the gap was between himself and the two leaders was extraordinary, he was about 30 seconds behind when he made the break and caught them with in about 300 metres. That was brilliant.

 

[largebus]

Hindley in the break but it's not going to survive