Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 5 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[Mojorisin]

If we trade up, then chances are we’ll be taking that player, Croft, and probably a couple players in the 50s with what’s left over. Possibly along with an FA or two like James Jordon.

There’s little chance our future second gets us a pick inside 30 this year, so don’t think it’s going to help with Lual. Club might look at it. Personally, think we should keep our draft hand intact next year, could be a bit to do.

If Williams leaves we might get an additional second, but that presumably would go to our Croft bid. Sweet might get us into the third round or a small upgrade on the Lions second, but again, Croft bid.

It'd cost a future first to trade back in for Lual.

 

[mattwa]

It'd cost a future first to trade back in for Lual.

Given our unknown trajectory that would be stupid to do. Going to be an interesting draft to see what we do

 

[_Cerberus_]

Given our unknown trajectory that would be stupid to do. Going to be an interesting draft to see what we do

I'd be against using next years first to move back in and draft our 100th HB on the list. There is a medium defender who has Morris like traits of shutting down all types of forwards, from big to smalls that could be there in the 10-20 range, plus a deeper pool of midfielders. Especially for a player ranked in the 20s or 30s, depending whose board you use.

I think we will have a decent hand this year anyway. Anticipate a couple of players will want to be traded out. We will have plenty we can play with to move up the draft if needed as it is. If we miss finals, we will likely get pick 10 anyway, so won't even need to trade up, 10 is a great spot and next to zero chance Croft is bid on before then.

 

[Mojorisin]

I'd be against using next years first to move back in and draft our 100th HB on the list. There is a medium defender who has Morris like traits of shutting down all types of forwards, from big to smalls that could be there in the 10-20 range, plus a deeper pool of midfielders. Especially for a player ranked in the 20s or 30s, depending whose board you use.

I think we will have a decent hand this year anyway. Anticipate a couple of players will want to be traded out. We will have plenty we can play with to move up the draft if needed as it is. If we miss finals, we will likely get pick 10 anyway, so won't even need to trade up, 10 is a great spot and next to zero chance Croft is bid on before then.

I'd class Lual as a wingman not a half back so Definitely an area of need. I'd be happy with either Leake or Patton at the lions pick if it weren't for Croft.

 

[_Cerberus_]

I'd class Lual as a wingman not a half back so Definitely an area of need. I'd be happy with either Leake or Patton at the lions pick if it weren't for Croft.

Assuming our first two picks avoid being eaten up by Croft. That means our second round and thirds will. If we want Lual, we may have to trade back in using next years pick. But as one suggested, we may have to use a first round pick to get into the second. NEVER ever reach for a pick, as much as he'd be a need, and has a bit to work with. I'd be bummed if we blew a first to take someone ranked in the 20s-30s. We either stay put and hope he slides, or move up slightly. But never drop back unless its splitting picks.

 

[Mojorisin]

Assuming our first two picks avoid being eaten up by Croft. That means our second round and thirds will. If we want Lual, we may have to trade back in using next years pick. But as one suggested, we may have to use a first round pick to get into the second. NEVER ever reach for a pick, as much as he'd be a need, and has a bit to work with. I'd be bummed if we blew a first to take someone ranked in the 20s-30s. We either stay put and hope he slides, or move up slightly. But never drop back unless its splitting picks.

Rankings are all subjective.

 

[willofwest]

This! By keeping him deep we lose that advantage. Around the ground he is like a big midfielder. I would want see him even play some center square.

As a CHF he is much much harder to shut down - good luck stopping him around the ground - he gets to use his power more and I reckon - like Chris Grant his field kicking is much better than his goal kicking but in any event he should kick 50+ from CHF AND take 10+ marks a game up the ground. AND will be able to drop back in the defence hole is we get a momentum shift.

Lobb (the Darcy) square and JUH leading out to 50 can settle into these roles and provide real problems.

Are you in the mix as the new forwards coach.? Sounds like a cunning plan there.

 

[doggiesin08]

Can go into next years deficit

you can come back into the draft after someone matches .. this is our opportunity to gain on ballers to go with our A grade forwards

Yes but you can’t trade pick 36 along with future 1st after a Croft bid because pick 36 will have been used in the matching process. Also in your example the pick received for Sweet will be used in the matching process so can’t be used to draft Lual. To use those picks you would have to trade them out to next year and then back in. It would also leave us without a 1st round pick next year and probably no 2nd round either with the deficit knocking it back.

 

[doggiesin08]

I'd be going for another wing in the draft (ideally Lual) absolutely spoilt for choice. I don't see anyone that really suits us in the trade market.

First I'd try to move up to 4 to get Watson and leave enough capital to come back in to pick up Lual.

If this wasn't possible I'd trade out of this year's draft as much as possible and pick up De La Rue and Gothard late loading up on Futures to target next year's inside mids.

I agree with this. Trade up is option #1 otherwise shift our first rounders into 2024 and trade back in ONLY IF someone we like slides and if we don't move back in then 2024 is last chance for Garcia, McLean regaining form/agility, more inside minutes for Smith.

The challenge with option #1 is to then accrue enough points elsewhere to match the Croft bid. If Croft is bid on at pick 10 we would need 1,116 points to match, but our remaining picks (at present) only amount to 735 points. One possible option would be:

• Trade Sweet to Sydney for pick #48 (you ask for pick #39 but I think unlikely)
• Draft night trade #35 and #62 to Brisbane for picks #44, #53, #59, #69 (creates 160 extra points, I don't think unreasonable for Brisbane)
• Picks #44 (Bris), #48 (Syd), #53 (Bris), #59 (Bris), #65 (Dogs), gives 1,145 points (enough to match at pick 10)*
• Extra pick #69 (Bris) gives enough cover if the Croft bid comes in at pick 9.

I think we have to accept if we're getting an early pick ahead of Croft, and then matching the bid, then you're not getting much more out of the 2023 draft.

* All of these numbers will shift around as the ladder changes and and if Ethan Read / Jake Rogers are bid on pre-Croft (clears out some of Gold Coasts picks in the 20s-50s shifting ours up) but concept remains. Side note: its such a joke that you can use more picks than list spots as long as you do the trades to get the picks on draft night rather than in advance.

 

[Mojorisin]

I agree with this. Trade up is option #1 otherwise shift our first rounders into 2024 and trade back in ONLY IF someone we like slides and if we don't move back in then 2024 is last chance for Garcia, McLean regaining form/agility, more inside minutes for Smith.

The challenge with option #1 is to then accrue enough points elsewhere to match the Croft bid. If Croft is bid on at pick 10 we would need 1,116 points to match, but our remaining picks (at present) only amount to 735 points. One possible option would be:

• Trade Sweet to Sydney for pick #48 (you ask for pick #39 but I think unlikely)
• Draft night trade #35 and #62 to Brisbane for picks #44, #53, #59, #69 (creates 160 extra points, I don't think unreasonable for Brisbane)
• Picks #44 (Bris), #48 (Syd), #53 (Bris), #59 (Bris), #65 (Dogs), gives 1,145 points (enough to match at pick 10)*
• Extra pick #69 (Bris) gives enough cover if the Croft bid comes in at pick 9.

I think we have to accept if we're getting an early pick ahead of Croft, and then matching the bid, then you're not getting much more out of the 2023 draft.

* All of these numbers will shift around as the ladder changes and and if Ethan Read / Jake Rogers are bid on pre-Croft (clears out some of Gold Coasts picks in the 20s-50s shifting ours up) but concept remains. Side note: its such a joke that you can use more picks than list spots as long as you do the trades to get the picks on draft night rather than in advance.

I'm working on the assumption that Croft gets a bid at 12 (I think that's the earliest he will get called) and we trade Sweet for a pick in the 40s. Pick 35, 40 odd and our picks in the 60s cover the bid.

 

[coxman]

I couldn’t see us getting anything less than a fourth round pick for Sweet. I hope I’m wrong, a club must be desperate if they offer a third rounder for him considering the guys been a permanent 2nds player

 

[Mojorisin]

I couldn’t see us getting anything less than a fourth round pick for Sweet. I hope I’m wrong, a club must be desperate if they offer a third rounder for him considering the guys been a permanent 2nds player

I'm hoping the over Valuing of rucks gets us a late third.

 

[coxman]

I'm hoping the over Valuing of rucks gets us a late third.

Hopefully West Coast are desperate enough

 

[hutchy31]

Hopefully West Coast are desperate enough

Would be a good idea to play Sweet this week and if he towels up his opponent then his asking price jumps up…..

On the trading of our future first, I don’t know as much as most of you do on draft talent and this year v next year, but I’d be wary of that. There’s a possibility (maybe even a decent one) that we drop next year. I’m sure Freo thought they’d be giving Melbourne pick 12-15 this year and instead it’ll be pick 4-6. Brutal.

 

[Mojorisin]

Hopefully West Coast are desperate enough

There are a few who will be fighting for a ruck. Essendon will need a back up with Phillips retiring and Bryan potentially going too. Sydney, Port, North if Goldy retires will also be in the hunt. That's atleast 5 teams who will need a ruck. Granted there are a few on the move. Sweet, Hayes, Flynn and Preuss probably move. Bryan, Grundy and Fort potentially aswell.

 

[Mojorisin]

Would be a good idea to play Sweet this week and if he towels up his opponent then his asking price jumps up…..

On the trading of our future first, I don’t know as much as most of you do on draft talent and this year v next year, but I’d be wary of that. There’s a possibility (maybe even a decent one) that we drop next year. I’m sure Freo thought they’d be giving Melbourne pick 12-15 this year and instead it’ll be pick 4-6. Brutal.

My preference if we go this route would be to trade lions pick for pies Future first (they're keen to bring in more top talent this year), then trade that pick back in and keep our own.

 

[coxman]

There are a few who will be fighting for a ruck. Essendon will need a back up with Phillips retiring and Bryan potentially going too. Sydney, Port, North if Goldy retires will also be in the hunt. That's atleast 5 teams who will need a ruck. Granted there are a few on the move. Sweet, Hayes, Flynn and Preuss probably move. Bryan, Grundy and Fort potentially aswell.

Yes the ruck pool is very limited, hopefully it plays to our advantage

 

[Nat Fyfe]

I agree with this. Trade up is option #1 otherwise shift our first rounders into 2024 and trade back in ONLY IF someone we like slides and if we don't move back in then 2024 is last chance for Garcia, McLean regaining form/agility, more inside minutes for Smith.

The challenge with option #1 is to then accrue enough points elsewhere to match the Croft bid. If Croft is bid on at pick 10 we would need 1,116 points to match, but our remaining picks (at present) only amount to 735 points. One possible option would be:

• Trade Sweet to Sydney for pick #48 (you ask for pick #39 but I think unlikely)
• Draft night trade #35 and #62 to Brisbane for picks #44, #53, #59, #69 (creates 160 extra points, I don't think unreasonable for Brisbane)
• Picks #44 (Bris), #48 (Syd), #53 (Bris), #59 (Bris), #65 (Dogs), gives 1,145 points (enough to match at pick 10)*
• Extra pick #69 (Bris) gives enough cover if the Croft bid comes in at pick 9.

I think we have to accept if we're getting an early pick ahead of Croft, and then matching the bid, then you're not getting much more out of the 2023 draft.

* All of these numbers will shift around as the ladder changes and and if Ethan Read / Jake Rogers are bid on pre-Croft (clears out some of Gold Coasts picks in the 20s-50s shifting ours up) but concept remains. Side note: its such a joke that you can use more picks than list spots as long as you do the trades to get the picks on draft night rather than in advance.

It rarely pans out this way, but if you’re trying to game the draft to get the best possible result for the club, you use our first pick (10) to place bids on all of Read, Rogers and McCabe (plus possibly Cleary), then take a live pick. Push the Croft bid as far out as possible to avoid damaging our draft hand too much

 

[Northernsoul74]

There are a few who will be fighting for a ruck. Essendon will need a back up with Phillips retiring and Bryan potentially going too. Sydney, Port, North if Goldy retires will also be in the hunt. That's atleast 5 teams who will need a ruck. Granted there are a few on the move. Sweet, Hayes, Flynn and Preuss probably move. Bryan, Grundy and Fort potentially aswell.

We’d need one as well.

 

[weltschmerz]

It rarely pans out this way, but if you’re trying to game the draft to get the best possible result for the club, you use our first pick (10) to place bids on all of Read, Rogers and McCabe (plus possibly Cleary), then take a live pick. Push the Croft bid as far out as possible to avoid damaging our draft hand too much

I'd want us to bid on Rogers anyway. (He's the quick little Suns mid, yeah?) Really impressed vs men in the game v Port reserves.

 

[Nat Fyfe]

I'd want us to bid on Rogers anyway. (He's the quick little Suns mid, yeah?) Really impressed vs men in the game v Port reserves.

If all were available to us, I’d be very happy with Rogers or McCabe. Not fussed on Read and Cleary tbh but seems they’re highly rated

 

[hutchy31]

My preference if we go this route would be to trade lions pick for pies Future first (they're keen to bring in more top talent this year), then trade that pick back in and keep our own.

Pies future first might not be that bad. Of all the top 5-6 teams I’d bet on them dropping next year (I don’t really have any evidence as to why, just think they might drop off).

 

[glenashley]

Trading up is the smart move

Snag a top level talent before the Croft bid then trade back in for Lual

Would do our 2 firsts for GC pick (or whatever the trade is?) and grab a Wilson type.

 

[doggies ftw]

Hollands dropped again, hasn’t set the world on fire but still a fair bit of upside and should be pretty cheap now with GC stocked in that position and seemingly happy to offload him and needing picks. Hope we have a crack, low risk high reward and fits the bill of what we’re looking for - big bodied, athletic and relatively high impact type of player

 

[Unorth]

Williams/Baker/Poulter/Scott etc is a pretty terrible wing rotation at present. Would make a lot of sense to put a high upside mid there for a year or two rather than stick them in the forward line.

Still slightly awkward because our midfield is getting old and slow but unless someone gets a bad injury we’re still waiting on Libba or Treloar to bow out. We’ve already shifted Macrae out to accommodate Caleb and West should eventually get a role there. Not to mention Baz.