Still not fully sold on Watson, not dismissing the the fact he is good, nor would I complain if we got him. But I think the cult around him is pumping him up more than he really is. He had a big national championships. But also has only 8 goals from 6 Coates league games so far, and in the bests just once.
Cameron and Papley, the two best smalls in the game were both rookie draft picks. Bolton went pick 29.
Smalls picked higher up in the draft rarely go on to the consistent level you need of high end picks. Pickett does stuff all most weeks, and then pulls the odd big one out of his ass, or snipes someone with a shoulder to the head. Weightman has long periods where he does nothing, before he hits his hot patches. Both were picked in the first rounds of their drafts. Clarke and Konstanty the two highest rated smalls last draft did not even debut at all this year and look like they have areas they need to improve on a bit. Jack Higgins went pick 17 and only kicked 3 or more goals three times this season, he has been a decent player but not pick 17 levels.
My concern is, is it worth trading up two first round picks, for a small forward who could get found out at AFL level size wise, and could be an inconsistent player like most smalls, when we have two bigger positions of need in MID and DEF? Just feels risky, then again all picks come with risks. But some positions seem to hold more so than others. If we are giving up a bit for pick 4, I'd be wanting someone who consistently lives up to playing like one.
The thing is, you could make this same argument about every type of player. E.g. Josh Schache and Sam Weideman went top 10 and Nick Larkey and Mitch Lewis were picked in the 70s. It’s about picking the right player, full stop. It doesn’t matter what position they play.
Watson’s height adds a bit of risk that isn’t there for say, Duursma. But there’s enough players around that mark like Daniel, Baker, Pickett, Bolton, Walters, etc, that have been very effective. If he’s good enough he’s tall enough.