Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 6 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[LordC]

If we match then the Eagles will move on. They won't trade for him.

I agree, that would mean English stays. But any club willing to make an offer to a restricted FA must appreciate the risk of a club matching especially if the gap between the offers is supposedly so small (1 year). You would also think the club’s reputation would be shot, good luck getting players to come to the Eagles if you only willing to get them on the cheap. If English is aware that they will not trade for him he likely does not take the offer at all.


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[dogwatch]

We stand to gain this year if English does leave, but free agency compensation (particularly 1st round compo) is the worst.

There shouldn't be a system where clubs are actively hoping their player leaves because the compensation is significantly greater than what they'd receive in a trade, and every other club not involved in losing or acquiring the player loses out by being forced down the draft order.

It's just ludicrous.

The current system is a poor compromise solution designed to placate the AFLPA when it pushed for free agency.

It has been suggested over the years that compensation for free agency moves should be dropped altogether. That removes two issues you mention but greatly exacerbates another: zero compensation for losing a player in the prime of his career.

I don't know if that option is still under consideration by the AFL but it would not favour clubs like ours if it was implemented. It would probably just favour the usual big clubs.

 

[dogwatch]

How much coin do you recon the Cats will report to the AFL, outside of the under table cotton on payments?
Band 1 or Band 2?

Geelong have form going back longer than most people here have been alive. They were one of the pioneers of dodgy payments way back in the early 1960s under the Coulter Law (with Brownlow Medallist Alistair Lord). Does anyone here have details of that case and how it ended up? GetDimmaBack perhaps?

 

[Mojorisin]

The current system is a poor compromise solution designed to placate the AFLPA when it pushed for free agency.

It has been suggested over the years that compensation for free agency moves should be dropped altogether. That removes two issues you mention but greatly exacerbates another: zero compensation for losing a player in the prime of his career.

I don't know if that option is still under consideration by the AFL but it would not favour clubs like ours if it was implemented. It would probably just favour the usual big clubs.

I think the best course of action would be to change the compensation (as you say the AFLPA will stand in the way of it being removed entirely) so that the first round is protected.
I've been saying it for years but Band 1 should be an end of first round pick. Band 2 after a clubs second round pick and Band 3 end of second round.

 

[dogwatch]

I think the best course of action would be to change the compensation (as you say the AFLPA will stand in the way of it being removed entirely) so that the first round is protected.
I've been saying it for years but Band 1 should be an end of first round pick. Band 2 after a clubs second round pick and Band 3 end of second round.

Yes, not ideal for losing a player like English (or hypothetically Richards or JUH) but simpler and more predictable. Also better than receiving no compensation at all.

This is where giving blockbusters only to big clubs (and many times over) works very much against the AFL's lip-service objective of equalisation. How many players can we attract by saying "you'll get to play every year in front of 90,000 people at the MCG on ANZAC Day"? Correct. The answer is zero.

 

[ScragCity]

I don't think compensation picks are necessary. The compensation for losing a gun player is the salary cap that is now available to pursue other free agents. All things being equal, a team is as likely to lose a gun player in the prime of their career than to gain one. Obviously some clubs are just inherently more appealing than others, but no amount of compensation picks or charity picks will negate that inequality. Collingwood will always be a more appealing club to players than North Melbourne.

 

[adogsfan5]

How does the matching of a contract work?

Hypothetically if we matched the eagles deal for English, clearly the eagles won’t want to part with any picks, could they then walk away if that happened?

 

[Mojorisin]

How does the matching of a contract work?

Hypothetically if we matched the eagles deal for English, clearly the eagles won’t want to part with any picks, could they then walk away if that happened?

That's correct. As a restricted free agent if we match a deal offered by the Eagles they'd either need to trade for English or walk away.

 

[DognBones]

Geelong have form going back longer than most people here have been alive. They were one of the pioneers of dodgy payments way back in the early 1960s under the Coulter Law (with Brownlow Medallist Alistair Lord). Does anyone here have details of that case and how it ended up? GetDimmaBack perhaps?

DW. This document provides a history of the Coulter Law. The Introduction paragraph is the information pertinent to the Geelong FC-Polly Farmer issue. I haven't copied any part to this thread due its length.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/257586171_Labour_market_regulation_and_team_performance_The_Victorian_Football_League's_Coulter_Law_1930-1970

 

[lachy]

Cal Twomey on Gettable yesterday said Smith is a certainty to leave, which makes sense with the moves Sam Power has been doing. They must have known this since last year.

How often has Cal Twomey been right is calling trades this early??

 

[VitalDread]

If we match and end up in a trade the West Coast

Feel like we will be part of the Freo interest in Baker and Rioli

Freo have three first-rounders, so they might package that to WCE for Pick 2

Flip that for the two players + picks back

We get two mid-first-rounders (if lucky)

Get Geelong First Rounder (Pick 14 atm) for Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

Could walk away 12, 13 and 14 (in an ideal world)

Package up to maybe Saint Kilda for Pick 4

 

[dogwatch]

I don't think compensation picks are necessary. The compensation for losing a gun player is the salary cap that is now available to pursue other free agents. All things being equal, a team is as likely to lose a gun player in the prime of their career than to gain one. Obviously some clubs are just inherently more appealing than others, but no amount of compensation picks or charity picks will negate that inequality. Collingwood will always be a more appealing club to players than North Melbourne.

Doesn’t stack up, especially in relation to elite talents who may be so scarce that they are irreplaceable. Would you be ok losing Bont because we get a million and a bit back in cap space? I wouldn’t.

 

[Mojorisin]

If we match and end up in a trade the West Coast

Feel like we will be part of the Freo interest in Baker and Rioli

Freo have three first-rounders, so they might package that to WCE for Pick 2

Flip that for the two players + picks back

We get two mid-first-rounders (if lucky)

Get Geelong First Rounder (Pick 14 atm) for Bailey Smith

Could walk away 12, 13 and 14 (in an ideal world)

Package up to maybe Saint Kilda for Pick 4

If that was the case I'd prefer the three top 15 picks. The top 20 is so even this year, it'd transform our side similarly to how Port did with Butters, Rozzee and Duursma.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

If we lose both Tim and Baz two top end talented young players it has to be a big blow. I still rate Tim as a young for a ruckman. In 2021 Bailey was elite in the finals ok he has not reached those heights in 22 and 23 and missed this season. However, he could still be an A grader next season. Tim may have his faults as tap ruckman but he is still very good around the ground.

Sure we get compensation and salary cap relief but we start again in trying to develop players as good or better. Bailey, I believe is 100% gone but hope we keep Tim.

 

[weltschmerz]

If we lose both Tim and Baz two top end talented young players it has to be a big blow. I still rate Tim as a young for a ruckman. In 2021 Bailey was elite in the finals ok he has not reached those heights in 22 and 23 and missed this season. However, he could still be an A grader next season. Tim may have his faults as tap ruckman but he is still very good around the ground.

Sure we get compensation and salary cap relief but we start again in trying to develop players as good or better. Bailey, I believe is 100% gone but hope we keep Tim.

Smith did reach those heights in 2022, until his suspension. He was averaging a Brownlow vote a game.

 

[VitalDread]

If that was the case I'd prefer the three top 15 picks. The top 20 is so even this year, it'd transform our side similarly to how Port did with Butters, Rozzee and Duursma.

True
this draft is pretty well balanced

I'm a big Sam Lalor fan, so i don't think he lasts till Pick 12

I'd move the world to get him in a dogs outfit

 

[BEaston]

The current system is a poor compromise solution designed to placate the AFLPA when it pushed for free agency.

It has been suggested over the years that compensation for free agency moves should be dropped altogether. That removes two issues you mention but greatly exacerbates another: zero compensation for losing a player in the prime of his career.

I don't know if that option is still under consideration by the AFL but it would not favour clubs like ours if it was implemented. It would probably just favour the usual big clubs.

Yep exactly. If there were no compensation all the stronger clubs just get stronger, as they're generally the ones selected to play at by players. The compensation is not perfect but I'm glad it exists to stop the AFL becoming even more a competition of haves and have nots (feeder clubs).

I don't understand anyone supporting us that are critical to the compensation when the outcome of removing it is clear.

 

[BEaston]

I don't think compensation picks are necessary. The compensation for losing a gun player is the salary cap that is now available to pursue other free agents. All things being equal, a team is as likely to lose a gun player in the prime of their career than to gain one. Obviously some clubs are just inherently more appealing than others, but no amount of compensation picks or charity picks will negate that inequality. Collingwood will always be a more appealing club to players than North Melbourne.

Bu all things aren't equal, as you rightly point out in your last sentence.

The compensation doesn't negate the inequality entirely, but it does counter it to some degree. Which is better than nothing.

 

[BEaston]

Cap space means nothing if you don't have good players to fill it. Then you're just overpaying spuds ala North Melbourne.

 

[Mojorisin]

True
this draft is pretty well balanced

I'm a big Sam Lalor fan, so i don't think he lasts till Pick 12

I'd move the world to get him in a dogs outfit

FOS and Murphy Reid are my favourites very early on.
but if we had 3 picks in the top 15 - 20 I'd be picking 3 of Travaglia, Moraes, Allan, Berry and Hotton.

 

[GetDimmaBack]

Geelong have form going back longer than most people here have been alive. They were one of the pioneers of dodgy payments way back in the early 1960s under the Coulter Law (with Brownlow Medallist Alistair Lord). Does anyone here have details of that case and how it ended up? GetDimmaBack perhaps?

Pretty sure it was Polly Farmer, DW.
Don't remember any details, but I do recall it being front page news in the papers.
I remember Bob Davis being heavily involved. The original 'poach coach'?

Must've been resolved, as Polly played a lot of games for Geelong.

There was also some controversy at that time around the recruitment of Denis Marshall (another WA gun), but I don't think it was to do with dodgy payments.

 

[JohnnySteel]

True
this draft is pretty well balanced

I'm a big Sam Lalor fan, so i don't think he lasts till Pick 12

I'd move the world to get him in a dogs outfit

He is going to be a beast. Definitely has match winner attributes.


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[JohnnySteel]

FOS and Murphy Reid are my favourites very early on.
but if we had 3 picks in the top 15 - 20 I'd be picking 3 of Travaglia, Moraes, Allan, Berry and Hotton.

Agreed with those named and Lalor as who we should be targeting if we do end up with multiple picks.

Really think Travaglia can become an elite mid ala Richards in time. But will be just as good as a defender until then.

Would look great next to Dale.


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[Norm De Guerre]

I don't think north could offer us enough to get that absolute fruityloop to the Bulldogs.
Do Not Want with a capital everything

It doesn't matter anyway. He's contracted into next year to the tune of $500K.

Norf are trying him at half back in the reserves and I doubt that they need to make a salary dump type trade.

The only thing that would get him to the dogs for $300k or even half of that as had been suggested in this thread.

 

[Mojorisin]

A few guys I like the look of towards the middle and back end of the draft are Luke Urquhart (Mid/HF), Xavier Ivisic (Mid), Lucas McInerney (Wing) and Lenny Douglas (Small Forward).
I know the dogs have interviews atleast one of them in Ivisic.