Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 6 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[Optimistic Dog]

If I said last year that in 2025 we could be without Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

, Tim English, Jack Macrae and Caleb Daniels it would be panic stations. Now 12 months on we have not had Bailey all year, Daniels in the twos, Jacko in and out of team that only leaves Tim as an automatic selection this season.

If we lose all of them as collective it is a big blow but if Sam Power

Sam Power

Age

41

Ht

190cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.7

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

6.9

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.0

4star

No current season stats available

D

7.8

2star

K

3.8

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.6

4star

uses the selections/trades well we can still be in a good position in 2025.

 

[stefoid]

I'd still go with best mids available, forgot that Treloar will also be close to retirement with Bont probably spending more time in the Fwd to ensure longevity.
Im happy with flea/westy with Arty and Clarke developing at the moment.
1 of those mids would have to be capable of playing on the wing(another position of need), to then rotate back through the guts.

Cody seems to have all the attributes of a wing. We had one gun mid hidden in the backline, I wonder if we have another in the forward line? His role seems to be supporting center bounces lately from the forward line, which I guess will continue for this season.

Of course we will miss him up forward, but I wonder how the team would benefit if he was picking up 25 possessions thru the midfield instead of 12 up forward? Id still back him to kick a goal per game from the wing.

Could we then play sonny in the role we are playing weightman? seems to have no aerial presence at all, but he is good at ground level and in heavy traffic.

 

[Afro_dog]

Why wouldn't we consider playing Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

if he is medically cleared? In an open season, we are in with a chance to win the flag, adding him into the team (even as sub) is a significant upgrade to the wing and HF options. What is the trade cost if he does get injured again? Can't see it still not being at least a 1st Rd pick. But if he does return successfully and we have a deep run, that would command at least 2 1sts.

 

[Libbaaaa]

Why wouldn't we consider playing Bailey Smith if he is medically cleared? In an open season, we are in with a chance to win the flag, adding him into the team (even as sub) is a significant upgrade to the wing and HF options. What is the trade cost if he does get injured again? Can't see it still not being at least a 1st Rd pick. But if he does return successfully and we have a deep run, that would command at least 2 1sts.

We probably would, I cannot see a scenario though where Baz would put his hand up and risk the next deal he alreasdy has in place, and I wouldn't expect him to.

 

[Bulldog Brent]

We probably would, I cannot see a scenario though where Baz would put his hand up and risk the next deal he alreasdy has in place, and I wouldn't expect him to.

The Hun has an article exactly about this issue today.

Western Bulldogs’ jet ball-winner Bailey Smith is unlikely to make a return to playing this season even if the club makes a deep run into September.
The man who appears headed for a trade to Geelong at season’s end is almost eight months into his recovery from a heartbreaking ACL tear suffered in mid-December last year.

While Collingwood’s Dan McStay has made his comeback to AFL level off only one VFL game, Smith is not physically recovered enough to step back onto the field.

ACL victims are typically ready after nine months out of the game, but even if the Bulldogs continued their hot form in September, Smith is unlikely to be risked as he prepares to change clubs.

Smith would command a long and lucrative contract at Geelong and would help provide a quality injection into a midfield brigade which needs to be strengthened.

But the club looks unlikely to risk a key trade asset in the run home and instead bank on its current senior playmakers to lead its push into the eight and finals if they make it.

Instead, Smith, who went overseas on a short break last month, could set himself for a major training block in the off-season in preparation for a fresh start after six years at the kennel.

Smith, 24, would command a first-round draft pick from Geelong (currently pick No. 13) which the Bulldogs could then on-trade to West Coast if they are successful for Eagles’ defender Tom Barrass.

At his peak in the 2021 finals series when he kicked eight goals in three games Smith was considered one of the best game breaking midfielders in the competition.

Barrass, 28, is weighing up interest from Hawthorn and Western Bulldogs and would also net the Eagles a first-round pick to help accelerate the club’s rebuild under a new coach.

Ruckman Tim English is considering interest from West Coast but the Bulldogs have held firm on their contract offer and do not want to give up overs to keep him.

Best and fairest winner Caleb Daniel could also consider a move at season’s end following talks with coach Luke Beveridge about his prospects for next year.

The Bulldogs would be unlikely to keep Daniel, 28, and Jack Macrae next year if they remain locked in the VFL team on decent salaries.

There is interest from multiple clubs in Daniel who was All-Australian in 2020.

He is one of the most skilled players in the team however the Bulldogs have ramped up their leg speed for this season as the club attempts to crash into the eight.

The Dogs face their toughest test of the season against Sydney Swans at the SCG on Sunday.

 

[stefoid]

Smith, 24, would command a first-round draft pick from Geelong (currently pick No. 13) which the Bulldogs could then on-trade to West Coast if they are successful for Eagles’ defender Tom Barrass.

 

[VitalDread]

 

[TiAn_]

It seems like unders, but if we can get a decent second round pick for Caleb we probably need to take it, for ours and his benefit.

I’d be less inclined to let Jack go as he’s actually playing every week. But the same applies.

If we can also get a first and second (theirs is currently 33) from Geelong for Bailey then that would give us a first and four second round picks. There’s plenty we could do with that.

 

[TiAn_]

If the Eagles promised to renegotiate Barrass’s deal to pay him market value and extend him, but the Pyke admin have since reneged on that, then that’s going to be read by Barrass and other teams as they’re happy for him to look elsewhere. Puts his “unless the club pulls the rug out from under me” comment in context.

The Eagles will let him walk if they’re happy to get a first round pick. If they’re not happy with that, then they’ll have to work it out with him so it doesn’t get to that point. They won’t be having a bob each way and saying they don’t want to follow through with renegotiating his deal (I.e. they’re happy for him to look elsewhere) but also seek a king’s ransom in a trade.

I’d be disappointed if we essentially turn Smith into Barrass, but I suspect if it gets to the point Barrass has requested a trade to us, that’s what would likely happen. If we also get a second round pick for Smith and turn him into Barrass and a second then it’ll be a bit more palatable.

 

[PurpJuice]

5 years for Barass is list suicide. He’ll be 30 next year on high coin with a debilitating back, having not played above 20 games in a season across his whole career.

 

[Afro_dog]

ACL victims are typically ready after nine months out of the game, but even if the Bulldogs continued their hot form in September, Smith is unlikely to be risked as he prepares to change clubs.

Smith would command a long and lucrative contract at Geelong and would help provide a quality injection into a midfield brigade which needs to be strengthened.

But the club looks unlikely to risk a key trade asset in the run home and instead bank on its current senior playmakers to lead its push into the eight and finals if they make it.

Interesting it says we are not wanting to risk the trade asset, rather than him not putting his hand up. Maybe im too optimistic, but I'm not sure the risk is that high from a trade value perspective (1st and 2nd down to just a 1st?).

We are in with a big shot to win the flag, we should be doing whatever it takes and playing Bailey should be a risk we are willing to take.

 

[BulldogMuscle]

5 years for Barass is list suicide. He’ll be 30 next year on high coin with a debilitating back, having not played above 20 games in a season across his whole career.

Pure gamble on a premiership right here.

 

[Libbaaaa]

5 years for Barass is list suicide. He’ll be 30 next year on high coin with a debilitating back, having not played above 20 games in a season across his whole career.

Barrass is 29 at the start of next year, so 5 years would take him through to the 2029 season when he would be 34. I don't think it is that crazy, we gave Liam Jones 3 years at the age of 32 after he hadn't played for a year.

 

[doggiesin08]

Interesting it says we are not wanting to risk the trade asset, rather than him not putting his hand up. Maybe im too optimistic, but I'm not sure the risk is that high from a trade value perspective (1st and 2nd down to just a 1st?).

We are in with a big shot to win the flag, we should be doing whatever it takes and playing Bailey should be a risk we are willing to take.

Plus as you said in your earlier post, if he comes back and performs for a month the price potentially even goes up.

 

[Angak]

Some interesting details on where the Barrass trade sits from our favorite journalist

https://www.nine.com.au/sport/afl/n...estern-bulldogs-hawthorn-20240726-p5jwtd.html

 

[Bulldogs85]

Pure gamble on a premiership right here.

Not the gamble i would take just look how that worked out for West Coast when they traded for Tim Kelly

 

[VitalDread]

Talks with Buku and his management have been really positive lately

 

[doggiesin08]

Barrass is 29 at the start of next year, so 5 years would take him through to the 2029 season when he would be 34. I don't think it is that crazy, we gave Liam Jones 3 years at the age of 32 after he hadn't played for a year.

Jones didn’t have nearly the injury history, I suspect his salary is a lot lower, and he was free as compared to a 1R pick.

You can also look at Alex Keath (1 year younger than Keath) to see how quickly it can turn at that age for others. Keath was 6th in our B&F in a grand final year where a lot of us would have had him behind only Bont and maybe Naughton for importance and was cooked less than 12 months later.

 

[_Cerberus_]

Interesting it says we are not wanting to risk the trade asset, rather than him not putting his hand up. Maybe im too optimistic, but I'm not sure the risk is that high from a trade value perspective (1st and 2nd down to just a 1st?).

We are in with a big shot to win the flag, we should be doing whatever it takes and playing Bailey should be a risk we are willing to take.

It will take him more than a month to even find some form, fitness and confidence. The idea he will impact out of the blocks, its very unrealistic. He is more likely to redo his knee than star.

If he blows a knee, we will get F all for him on the trade table, and miss out on drafting a potential 200 game player with the pick we may get from him as it is. It is simply not worth the risk. I doubt he will offer much in four weeks that the current 22 don't already. Plus zero chance the coaches play him with zero matches in the VFL either.

 

[adogsfan5]

Sounds like we’re all in on a flag when it comes to Barrass.

 

[Mojorisin]

Barrass is 29 at the start of next year, so 5 years would take him through to the 2029 season when he would be 34. I don't think it is that crazy, we gave Liam Jones 3 years at the age of 32 after he hadn't played for a year.

Barrass has a huge question marks over durability across his career though and with the added back injury he now has, which sees him in constant pain and struggling to get out of bed of a morning I can't see him playing well into his thirties. Although he has played well this year his ground level game has dropped off significantly and it's only going to get worse.

 

[Mojorisin]

Not much could disengage me from this club buy turning English or Baz into Barrass would definitely do it.

 

[Libbaaaa]

Some interesting details on where the Barrass trade sits from our favorite journalist

https://www.nine.com.au/sport/afl/n...estern-bulldogs-hawthorn-20240726-p5jwtd.html

Friend of the Dogs Tom Morris. 4 years, will offer a 5th if we need to beat out the Hawks it sounds like.

Barrass has a huge question marks over durability across his career though and with the added back injury he now has, which sees him in constant pain and struggling to get out of bed of a morning I can't see him playing well into his thirties. Although he has played well this year his ground level game has dropped off significantly and it's only going to get worse.

Has averaged 17 games a year in the past 8 season, lowest of 14, highest of 19. Not the best but far from worst in terms of durability. Yes the reports of his back and the issues he has had are worrying but you would think the club isn't throwing that kind of coin at him without having done their due dilligence.

 

[_Cerberus_]

Sounds like we’re all in on a flag when it comes to Barrass.

I am torn personally. If the club honestly feels we are a chance to push hard for Premierships from now on. And feel Barass is the last missing link. Then go for it.

On the other hand. Assume Lobb maintains his form. Will Busslinger, JOD and Khamis want to hang around for 2-3 years stuck in the VFL? And when all of Lobb, Barass and Jones retire. We will be left with an empty cupboard in defence once again, when our forwards are at their peak age. That being said we will face the same issue with our midfield as well.

Which is why I am starting to the side with the, go all in now mode. We have a solid MID and DEF for the next three seasons. Need to capitalise.

 

[Libbaaaa]

Jones didn’t have nearly the injury history, I suspect his salary is a lot lower, and he was free as compared to a 1R pick.

You can also look at Alex Keath (1 year younger than Keath) to see how quickly it can turn at that age for others. Keath was 6th in our B&F in a grand final year where a lot of us would have had him behind only Bont and maybe Naughton for importance and was cooked less than 12 months later.

Keath came across as an interceptor but was forced to play key back due to necessity, I think that's what has done him in injury wise.