Strategy Trade and List Management Thread Part 7 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[doggie dog]

The club helped him with rehabbing his knee that will allow him to earn an income in future years?

Paid him a years sick leave, provided him with free surgery and top medical trainers.
Ungrateful pr!ck

 

[The City Boyz]

if Clarke isn’t better than joe
Richards in 18 months to two years i’ll eat my hat. He is 5 yrs older. Terribly disappointing how we have treated the young fella.

It astounds me how much people on this board under rate Chook
Wanting Konstanty over him lol

 

[doggie dog]

This bloke has "outgrown the club".

Go **** yourself champ. Narcissistic flog.

Omg how good is Dale Morris, just a super awesome dude

 

[Pep_x]

Smiths brand will be exponentially damaged by being photographed alongside Clayton Oliver

13

Clayton Oliver

Age

27

Ht

189cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.8

5star

K

9.5

4star

HB

18.4

5star

M

3.2

3star

T

6.3

5star

CL

6.3

5star

D

25.1

5star

K

11.1

4star

HB

14.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

5.6

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

19.2

5star

K

4.6

2star

HB

14.6

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

4.4

5star

CL

3.8

5star

for the rest of his career.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Cerra ? Pick 6 and future 3rd .

Cerra had just come off his best season (3rd in B&F, 5 Brownlow votes) and was on a steadily improving trajectory. Also not post-injury.

Jaeger O'Meara?
Pick 10 and a future second? He had shot knees. Iirc a bit older too?

I assume you mean the trade to Hawthorn? This is a pretty good example. I can't remember the circumstances around it well so this one checks out.

Cerra (OOC) equivalent pick 4
Tim Taranto (OOC) equivalent pick 3
Hopper (pre-agent) equivalent pick 4
Dunkley (OOC) equivalent pick 5/6
Rankine (OOC) equivalent pick 5

Form is temporary, Bailey’s issues off the field were likely a major factor as to why he had a down year before the knee. Geelong wouldn’t be focused on 2023, they’d be looking to 2021/22 and what he’s capable of when he’s at his best and be backing themselves in to get him to that level again.

In regards to his ACL, sure they’re assuming some risk but we’re not in the 1980’s anymore, reconstruction failure rates aren’t as high as they used to be. By the time he plays his first game it’ll be 15 months since the injury which minimises the risk even further. He’ll get a full preseason and be ready to go well before round one.

Additionally, Bailey isn’t just a footballer, his worth shouldn’t be measured purely by what he can bring on the field. His commercial value in relation to memberships and sponsorships could, arguably, outweigh any discount you want to apply from the ACL risk.

Using draft point equivalencies is a bit misleading, not to mention that in some of those deals picks went back the other way. Like, Dunkley for example - we traded two third rounders plus Dunkley for pick 21 and a future 1st/2nd/3rd. Is that really better than "pick 15 and something later in the draft?" That's without mentioning Dunkley's consistently excellent form, maturity, health, and lack of red flags.

Hopper is not comparable as a contracted player.

Rankine, again, was coming off a steadily improving trajectory and strong year at the GC (>1.5 goals/game as a small fwd). They also sent out two later picks as part of the deal.

Taranto is an interesting case and the best example you make here, but again, model of consistency, strong leader, improving trajectory, few injuries, etc.

"Issues off the field" being the catalyst for Baz's form is a reasonable assertion but based on what we've seen this year, and especially over the past few months, there's little to suggest that anything has changed in that regard.

Reconstruction failure rates are superior to what they used to be, sure, but they still aren't fantastic. More to the point, too many players never get back to their best.

The marketing argument just doesn't wash for me. He's no use from a marketing perspective if he doesn't football real good. I don't think it has ever factored into a trade.

Regardless, a key aspect of many of these deals is that they were done using assets that the receiving club already had. Geelong doesn't have them, and we have absolutely no leverage to demand that they get them. And before anyone suggests BF's favourite empty threat, the PSD - please. There are almost no examples of it ever happening, let alone an unwanted club taking them. We'd only be shooting ourselves in the foot.

Overall, there are just very few examples of an uncontracted young player with off-field issues coming off a significant injury being traded for a large amount. I hope I'm wrong, but I suspect the deal ends up being 15 + a second or third or a fringe player.

 

[Doggy]

Smiths brand will be exponentially damaged by being photographed alongside Clayton Oliver for the rest of his career.

Oliver isn't even a guarantee to go there

 

[Mofra]

Can someone explain how Perryman is getting 850-900k? He's a Bailey Williams level b grader at best

I'm happy to sit this offseason out if these are the deals guys like that Cumming and Peatling are getting

It reminds me of that NBA offseason where the cap went up and teams gave hacks huge contracts that the spent the next 3 years trying to sell off - mozgov, mahimi, asik etc

Bailey Williams was a top 5 wingman in the competition so that's a fair under-rating of his efforts this year

Perryman is plug and play and a FA so gets overs in dollars.

 

[_Cerberus_]

B n F thread

Why would any of you pass that leak on, and ruin it for the rest of us? Come on guys, some of us actually watch it.

Glad I avoided that thread. (Not directed as you btw, but I assume someone has posted it going by this comment?)

 

[Foxman98]

You are spot on

Think this says it all really and I love him even more for it

 

[seaweed]

Think this says it all really and I love him even more for it

View attachment 2129499

Libba doesn’t follow him either.

 

[Freshwater]

What would we do? Use our first round pick on him basically.

Your first round (15+)is not nearly enough. He was pick 7 and we’ve done the apprenticeship so he is about to enter his prime. 2x first rounds as the minimum.

 

[cherrypie]

Think this says it all really and I love him even more for it

View attachment 2129499

Bailey has outgrown Bont’s following list

 

[54Bulldog16]

You’d think an announcement would mean the framework of the deal must have been agreed between the clubs?

 

[Foxman98]

You’d think an announcement would mean the framework of the deal must have been agreed between the clubs?

No the campaigner just wanted more attention again

 

[Northernsoul74]

FWIW I don't think we will trade Jamarra and I don't think we should trade Jamarra even if the trade offer is very good.

Ultimately, Jamarra was a good player that helped us win games this year, which is why the Saints want him. And I'm much more confident in fixing his goalkicking issues rather than a different player randomly becoming as good as Jamarra in all non-goalkicking areas.

It's for that reason that we probably vaguely explored the idea in terms of flipping him to a Butters type, and to transfer some of the uncertainty of future output into more solid expected future output of Butters. Swapping that for draft picks does nothing, at least in the next few years as Bont and co remain a good player. We can always retool with draft picks if we have a year with like 7 wins, we miss finals in consecutive years and/or sack Bevo.

People should be careful what they wish for with JUH. It’s so difficult for a club of our stature to attract top end talent. When we get gifted some I’m not sure I’d be rushing them out the door.
The theoretical turn JUH into Butters is extremely unlikely. If Butters were to become available every club would be after him. I can’t really see the Dogs winning that fight. Pessimistic I know.

 

[Anja_Nees]

Argh.

 

[Northernsoul74]

in all seriousness here, can someone provide a genuine and detailed reason as to why we are never in contention for players, why we aren’t a “destination club” and why we are always overlooked…

I would love for someone to provide an extensive list as to why (opinion based or factual)

I’m curious as to what people think honestly.
Because it’s so disheartening that we here teams want to go to North, Geelong, Carlton and the other vic clubs etc.

We’re viewed as a “small” club. Players want big games we at the G or think playing for a marquee club guarantees success. It’s a status thing n my opinion. We really need to get better at PR around our club and the new facilities.

 

[_Cerberus_]

Also this is not the NBA. The club cannot just trade JUH, which seems to be the tone of a couple of posts. He has to formally come out and announce a wish to be traded, then a club needs to be found, and an agreement reach. The club can't just move him on at their own free will.

If he was on the table, or there was some issues in the back ground. The media would have been onto it long ago. It's not going to happen.

 

[Testekill]

Sorry to intrude, but the Smith one really intrigues me as you paid a very good pick in the 2018 Super Draft for him and he is a quality player - unlucky with his injury, but he can play. Whats happened for him to want to go and to bloody Geelong of all clubs?

With your Dawson analogy, you have to remember we held Sydney over a barrel as we had pick 1 in the PSD so 'could' have walked him there so paying a 1st rounder was realistically as good as that was going to get for Sydney. Geelong most certainly don't have the PSD threat so talk of a late 1st being enough in some quarters seems rather fanciful. Surely he is a 2 1sts player every day of the week?

I will see myself out now

The big worry with Smith has always been that he's all about the Bailey Smith brand, it's gotta be about him and now he has the chance to be the face of the Geelong midfield when Dangerfield retires in two years. A bigger club was always going to come calling.

 

[Northernsoul74]

To be fair he didn't play at anytime in the season so why would he want to attend.

Because he’s been paid by the club, used their facilities and is team mate to all the other current Western Bulldogs players. In all honesty crap like this we should be able to fine him a weeks wages. He’s basically not turning up for work.

 

[Northernsoul74]

JUH and Weightman seem to be his only mates at the club. JUH has that party boy rep and Weightman just loves everyone, so I can see them getting along with him still.

Weightman is essentially a Labrador.

 

[_Cerberus_]

So how does Geelong get both Smith and Oliver across the line?

I can see us getting screwed over big time here. Oliver is worth more as a player.

Also not buying into some of you that he only revealed it today because of our BnF, to get attention. Oliver announced it at the same time. Most likely they both knew, but the Cats told them to hold it off until a certain date.

 

[Dog 36]

No the campaigner just wanted more attention again

The timing of his announcement is no coincidence.

Says more about him and confirms things.

Get what we went off Cats or send him to PSD.

 

[Northernsoul74]

So how does Geelong get both Smith and Oliver across the line?

I can see us getting screwed over big time here. Oliver is worth more as a player.

Also not buying into the s**t he revealed it today because of our BnF. Oliver announced it at the same time. Most likely they both knew, but the Cats told them to hold it off until a certain date.

Probably quite easily. You have to think Melbourne are giving Oliver away so Geelong can prob get him for a second round pick and paying decent part of his wages.

 

[_Cerberus_]

Probably quite easily. You have to think Melbourne are giving Oliver away so Geelong can prob get him for a second round pick and paying decent part of his wages.

Imagine the Cats get an AA grade MID for nothing, just after they were gifted pick 6 from the Suns, to take a salary dump.