Strategy Trade and List Management Thread Part 7 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[dergert]

You'd think Garcia is outta here now

 

[adogsfan5]

You'd think Garcia is outta here now

Why’s that?

 

[_Cerberus_]

I don't see us targeting a big fish next year via trade, if we are looking to move next years first round pick into this year. Would likely mean, next years hand will be as bad as this years one currently is. Unless we get some picks for the players we trade out. And the AFL will not let teams trade away three first round picks in a row, despite teams being able to trade an extra year into the future. So we won't be able to trade away the 2026 and 2027 first round picks. So my guess will be, if we have some cap space, we might be targeting a couple of free agents.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

The simultaneous view of Geelong fans that:

• Pick 20 is somehow worth more than just the vague concept of the 20th best talent in this draft because there's something magical about all the humans that were born in 2006 that made them better footballers than the humans born in 2005 or 2004 or 2003
• Smith is not that good of a footballer so we don't have to trade much
• But we're happy to offer him a big contract
• We're going to pretend he's not that good of a footballer because of his ACL, but ignore than it's not as if no player ever comes back from an ACL. The Norm Smith medallist literally just came back from an ACL this season.
• But we'll still offer him a big contract
• He never was that good for the Dogs as evidenced by lack of midfield minutes and lack of extremely high B&F placing
• Even though that's setting the bar unrealistically high for a 20 year old. Any 20 year old that did finish in the top 5 of the B&F of a finals team or cemented themselves in the midfield rotation of a finals team would immediately command a top 5 pick. The fact that Smith doesn't reach those levels doesn't mean his value is not not a top 15 pick - just maybe not a top 5 pick.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I reckon the folks who think there’s some big secrets and news that hasn’t dropped yet because we ‘run a tight ship’ in terms of news leaking are going to be disappointed.

But of course I hope I’m wrong.

We're legitimately waiting and seeing if we can make a move depending on our salary cap room if Macrae and Daniel leave or not, then we can flip that salary cap room and the fact that we have a slightly better trade position into making a move.

No point leaking anything when everything is initial and contingent in the Daniel and Macrae trades.

We want picks that are meaningful for both players - a single pick in the top 50 for Macrae and in the top 30 for Daniel, not just random shuffling around of back and forth 3rd/4th rounders or whatever. It's not a huge haul but it's not neglibile either.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I don't see us targeting a big fish next year via trade, if we are looking to move next years first round pick into this year. Would likely mean, next years hand will be as bad as this years one currently is. Unless we get some picks for the players we trade out. And the AFL will not let teams trade away three first round picks in a row, despite teams being able to trade an extra year into the future. So we won't be able to trade away the 2026 and 2027 first round picks. So my guess will be, if we have some cap space, we might be targeting a couple of free agents.

That's the rumours floating around. Any of Balta, Rayner, Sam Collins.

 

[Dogs Rule]

Our future first and Garcia for GC 13.

13 and a second rounder (from Geelong) for Houston.

Keep the 17 from Geelong.

Clubs around us are actively looking to improve. We need to as well.

 

[_Cerberus_]

Our future first and Garcia for GC 13.

13 and a second rounder (from Geelong) for Houston.

Keep the 17 from Geelong.

Clubs around us are actively looking to improve. We need to as well.

Garcia hasn't requested to be traded at this point.

I don't think the Suns were one of the teams linked. And he has to actually agree to want to go there.

We won't get their pick 13. Other teams can give up more for it, without hurting their draft hand as much as we will. Will be very surprised if we do.

 

[doggy_dog]

You'd think Garcia is outta here now

I wonder if he’s waiting on CD’s decision

 

[House_of_Dahl]

You don't think it was?

Beat the top 4 comfortably ... and away from home

Yes I agree our second half of the year was definitely better

 

[grassman75]

This is how grim it is

View attachment 2132888

Actually like ours better than some. Lol Essendon

 

[my plums]

The simultaneous view of Geelong fans that:

• Pick 20 is somehow worth more than just the vague concept of the 20th best talent in this draft because there's something magical about all the humans that were born in 2006 that made them better footballers than the humans born in 2005 or 2004 or 2003
• Smith is not that good of a footballer so we don't have to trade much
• But we're happy to offer him a big contract
• We're going to pretend he's not that good of a footballer because of his ACL, but ignore than it's not as if no player ever comes back from an ACL. The Norm Smith medallist literally just came back from an ACL this season.
• But we'll still offer him a big contract
• He never was that good for the Dogs as evidenced by lack of midfield minutes and lack of extremely high B&F placing
• Even though that's setting the bar unrealistically high for a 20 year old. Any 20 year old that did finish in the top 5 of the B&F of a finals team or cemented themselves in the midfield rotation of a finals team would immediately command a top 5 pick. The fact that Smith doesn't reach those levels doesn't mean his value is not not a top 15 pick - just maybe not a top 5 pick.

And even though it’s sliding into the 20s we are still going to get the same player we would have got at 15 because the other players that are making the pick slide were never available to us anyway. So it’s essentially still the 15th best rated player.

^^^^^that one is the most farcical reasoning I’ve seen.

 

[Mofra]

I'd be looking at Matt Kennedy, underrated at Blues.

I'd rather pass and play Sanders instead

 

[Mofra]

That's the rumours floating around. Any of Balta, Rayner, Sam Collins.

We've had two goes at Sam Collins. He's just won a B&F so wouldn't be cheap, if he even is gettable.

 

[El Rancho]

And even though it’s sliding into the 20s we are still going to get the same player we would have got at 15 because the other players that are making the pick slide were never available to us anyway. So it’s essentially still the 15th best rated player.

^^^^^that one is the most farcical reasoning I’ve seen.

Spot on. I don't understand why so many people sh!t their pants because a pick is going to slide back a few spots.

The players taken at those spots are never going to be available so who cares. Pick 15 that slides to 18 is still going to be the 15th player available. Does anyone actually think the Levi Ashcroft is going anywhere other than Brissy? So, he's not available and even though a "live" pick moves back, it's still the same player who will be available to pick.
Think about availability, not just look at the number of the pick

 

[my plums]

Spot on. I don't understand why so many people sh!t their pants because a pick is going to slide back a few spots.

The players taken at those spots are never going to be available so who cares. Pick 15 that slides to 18 is still going to be the 15th player available. Does anyone actually think the Levi Ashcroft is going anywhere other than Brissy? So, he's not available and even though a "live" pick moves back, it's still the same player who will be available to pick.
Think about availability, not just look at the number of the pick

Yeah but it’s still the 20th rated player in the draft rather than the 15th.

 

[Foxman98]

Spot on. I don't understand why so many people sh!t their pants because a pick is going to slide back a few spots.

The players taken at those spots are never going to be available so who cares. Pick 15 that slides to 18 is still going to be the 15th player available. Does anyone actually think the Levi Ashcroft is going anywhere other than Brissy? So, he's not available and even though a "live" pick moves back, it's still the same player who will be available to pick.
Think about availability, not just look at the number of the pick

Because you don't get the 15th best player in the draft its not hard to understand,

If the top 10 picks 1 year are all F/S + Academy players is pick 1 in the draft as valuable as the year after when there are none?

 

[geoffjennings79]

It's 9:38.

Why hasn't Zak Butters

9

Zak Butters

Age

24

Ht

181cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.3

4star

K

7.7

3star

HB

6.7

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.8

3star

D

14.7

4star

K

8.9

4star

HB

5.9

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.1

3star

D

17.0

5star

K

9.0

4star

HB

8.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.6

4star

CL

0.6

3star

requested a trade to us yet??!!

Sack Sam Power

Sam Power

Age

41

Ht

190cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.7

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

6.9

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.0

4star

No current season stats available

D

7.8

2star

K

3.8

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.6

4star

.

 

[El Rancho]

Yeah but it’s still the 20th rated player in the draft rather than the 15th.

But you get the 15th best "available" player. I understand that FS and academy picks are talented kids, but they are simply not available and we would never have had access to them.
I'm talking about AVAILABILITY, not talent list

 

[Unorth]

It’s not about going full Essington and “winning” trade week.

That being said, I’m not sure pinning all our hopes on internal development is wise. It’s going to happen, mainly from our young forwards.

But I don’t see it happening in the areas we need. Poulter, VDM, McNeil have most likely hit their ceilings.

We could move Freijah to a wing, but that’s pinning hopes on something completely unproven. He is a talent and probably makes it work, but he may also be in his best position. The reason the often maligned VDM and McNeil got so many games is because in truth they have no competition for those spots. And those positions have been a weakness for ages. As for the other wing, we tried Poulter and then basically gave up on the spot altogether.

We could improve those positions via draft and DFA but that’s completely speculative at a time where the comp is wide open. Bringing in known quantities would be wise.

btw it’s not about blaming those bottom tier players for our finals loss. But if we want a double chance, which we weren’t far off getting, small improvements to those fringe players across the H&A season could make a big difference to the end result.

Ditching JJ would also be a mistake given he can contribute good footy with a bit of luck. Versatile too.

Given where the comp is at, I think having an offseason where you push out multiple reasonably positive contributors, even if they’re somewhat past it, only to have a ‘quiet’ trade period and hit the draft (not great timing when we don’t own our first round pick…) would be doing a bit of a disservice to a flag tilt in 2025. I’ve said it before but Bruce and Keath were perfect moves for our list at that time and it almost got us to the top. Now would be the time to replicate that.

The Peatling and O’Hallaran interest made/makes a lot of sense in that regard. Pretty much exactly what we should be doing. But it appears there’s a trend of our targets getting snaffled by other sides.

Writing this trade period off as saving assets and cap space for a big fish in 2025 is pretty wishful thinking. We seem to struggle getting medium fish these days. There may be surprises in store but let’s see

 

[RedWhite&Blue]

Just wait for Geelong to split their first pick into 2 later picks and give us one of them for Smith... Be prepared to be a very angry and insulted Bulldogs supporter because it's likely to happen like it did in the Dunkley trade to Brisbane.
This is just my opinion and what I'm preparing for... it helps me manage my emotions for when we eventually get shafted.

 

[El Rancho]

Because you don't get the 15th best player in the draft its not hard to understand,

If the top 10 picks 1 year are all F/S + Academy players is pick 1 in the draft as valuable as the year after when there are none?

I get that. I said you get the 15th best AVAILABLE kid.

No point getting hung up on players you can't actually get. When we got JUH at number 1, Adelaide had the next pick and took the 1st player "available to them".

Not sure how that concept is hard to understand

 

[my plums]

But you get the 15th best "available" player. I understand that FS and academy picks are talented kids, but they are simply not available and we would never have had access to them.
I'm talking about AVAILABILITY, not talent list

Those players are available if the team with access doesn't want to match though. Still the 20th rated player instead of the 15th is all I'm saying.

 

[my plums]

Just wait for Geelong to split their first pick into 2 later picks and give us one of them for Smith... Be prepared to be a very angry and insulted Bulldogs supporter because it's likely to happen.

That would create more risk for the National Draft threat though right?

 

[Charlie Bucket]

Just wait for Geelong to split their first pick into 2 later picks and give us one of them for Smith... Be prepared to be a very angry and insulted Bulldogs supporter because it's likely to happen.

Source?