List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency talk Pt 8

[_RT_]

 

[fargothegreat]

Short and Broad won't last more than 1 or 2 more season due to form and age respectfully. Nank is also starting to tire and will have to be used less and less.

Rioli and Baker both offer major leadership values that are hard to come by. Rioli took it upon himself to set up that competition at training with Shai in 2022 and look what it did? Bolton got a jacket. Baker is a great example of the "look at my actions" leader. He is being misused at the moment (still think he is best in the backline) but he also has the experience of having to work and struggle to make the AFL grade. The other thing they both have is multiple medals. That is as important as anything because they know what is required to get to the promised land multiple times.

From what I have seen of Ross, he speaks well enough to show that he is not a moron but there have yet to be stories of his leadership yet. Balta in the panel shows I have seen has given me a feeling that he is not a leader.

I think the answer is probably to keep Baker if we can convince him to stay on, and give him the captaincy. The issue is that he's the one without the contract.

 

[beema limapep]

Disagree, early season he was averaging close to 20/2. He’s dropped off a bit but so has most of the team. We also haven’t had a consistent forward line all year.

Sure he makes stupid mistakes but he also creates opportunities like few others.

Arguably best players in their position don't have 2 month form slumps and don't make stupid mistakes. Or if they do make stupid mistakes, they are very very rare.

Arguably best players also don't need half their season matches and stats ignored to make the case the are arguably the best player in the comp.

Arguably best players need no excuses, caveats or asterisks.

 

[SplintWhisky]

My worry is that I don't think Yze got th job selling the vision of a rebuild. He still thought we could contend.

I hope him and Blair aren't stubborn and understand that that's probably what is required.

Here is my thing as I was looking at our list a while ago. If we had all players fit and played on form and not name we could be a lot better as a side.

Think about what a side that looked like could do if playing together

Backs: Miller Balta Gibcus
HB: Rioli Broad Vlastuin
C: McIntosh Ross Ralphsmith
HF: MRJ Kosi Bolton
F: Dusty Lynch Lefau
Fol: Nank Taranto Hopper
Bench: Brown Sonsie Baker Campbell
Sub: Banks

You would find rotations between Dusty, Mansell and McAulife (push Sonsie more on ball when Mansell is in and then have him more hybrid with McAulife). If Kosi of Lefau need that rest or a few confidence boosters then Balta can be thrown forward and we develop Blight or Young more depending on the side we play.

 

[Morro]

They also need to sell memberships and get people through the door at games. If that drops then so do the sponsor $$$

The injuries are not that bad atm... and we still get hammered.

They are still pretty bad. 2 best KP forwards not playing makes it bloody hard.

 

[fargothegreat]

Here is my thing as I was looking at our list a while ago. If we had all players fit and played on form and not name we could be a lot better as a side.

Think about what a side that looked like could do if playing together

Backs: Miller Balta Gibcus
HB: Rioli Broad Vlastuin
C: McIntosh Ross Ralphsmith
HF: MRJ Kosi Bolton
F: Dusty Lynch Lefau
Fol: Nank Taranto Hopper
Bench: Brown Sonsie Baker Campbell
Sub: Banks

You would find rotations between Dusty, Mansell and McAulife (push Sonsie more on ball when Mansell is in and then have him more hybrid with McAulife). If Kosi of Lefau need that rest or a few confidence boosters then Balta can be thrown forward and we develop Blight or Young more depending on the side we play.

That is still a bottom four midfield imo. We need to rebuild.

 

[SplintWhisky]

That is still a bottom four midfield imo. We need to rebuild.

I think it is actually 1 or 2 players off. Hopper could go for someone who is a powerful burst player and then a fast endurance king would almost complete the side.

In this side I would also have Miller and Gibcus playing the more shut-down roles on the tall forwards. I have a feeling that allowing Balta to use his competitive aggression and speed could be a real asset trying to get the ball out of our backline. He could also use his speed to go third man up in contests.

 

[fargothegreat]

I think it is actually 1 or 2 players off. Hopper could go for someone who is a powerful burst player and then a fast endurance king would almost complete the side.

In this side I would also have Miller and Gibcus playing the more shut-down roles on the tall forwards. I have a feeling that allowing Balta to use his competitive aggression and speed could be a real asset trying to get the ball out of our backline. He could also use his speed to go third man up in contests.

Our premiership midfield had Dusty, Cotch, Prestia, Edwards and Lambert as its prime movers.

We're one superstar and another two A graders away from matching that, and the only realistic way we're going to find them is with picks at the pointy end of the draft.

 

[Ctl]

Really depends on what the football department attributes as the reasons for this poor season, is it injuries, quality of the list or coaching/system. If next year with everything being equal the football department view us as a bottom 4 team then we need to do a full ground zero rebuild.

If the football department think that next year we are a top 8 or top 4 chance (like the messaging was at the start of this year) if we are healthy and can emulate what collingwood did then I doubt we are open to trading out guys. On paper our best 23 is still pretty good but statistically we are legitimately the worst side in the competition so how much of that is injury, coaching, quality of player etc will determine the path forward

 

[SplintWhisky]

Our premiership midfield had Dusty, Cotch, Prestia, Edwards and Lambert as its prime movers.

We're one superstar and another two A graders away from matching that, and the only realistic way we're going to find them is with picks at the pointy end of the draft.

Here is the thing though, our flags and the flag of Collingwood were all built on Midfields not having to win the ball at the contest. Sure when finals came around our Midfield would rise to the occasion and start to get that ball but we relied on quick movement and winning the ball back around the ground.

You can't look at our Midfield now and say it is far worse than Collingwood's in last year.

 

[_RT_]

My worry is that I don't think Yze got th job selling the vision of a rebuild. He still thought we could contend.

I hope him and Blair aren't stubborn and understand that that's probably what is required.

Yze saying he wasn't putting a ceiling on what we could achieve was based on us having our best players on the park for most of the season as well as a bit of PR spin to get the undecided supporters onside thinking that we'd be back in the hunt again.

Unfortunately all that went out the window as soon as the Swans game ended and the injuries started mounting up.

I've been on the opinion since well before the season started that we would see sweeping changes happening this year, given the way that the list had been set up with over half the list coming out of contract this year. So far we've played 41 out of 46 players on the list, which has given Yze a great chance to look over the list and see who is capable of playing the way he wants us to play.

It is no shock to me to see some senior names being spoken about as exploring their options for next year, as I feel like they aren't fully committed to following Yzes vision for the club moving forward, as they either can't see things improving as quickly as they may want or they aren't getting to play the game in the way they want to given Yzes desire to be a strong contested side to get the ball going our way offensively, with a heavy focus on team defense when we don't have the ball. It's a big switch from the way Hardwick had us playing.

 

[THE_GUN]

I say blow it up and get max value for the players we have that won't be in the next window.

I would rather be a trash bottom 4 team for the next 2-3 three years than a mid table team like freo and the saints for 10

I can totally understand this theory BUT only if its under our terms

* Rioli - If he wants to leave and the asking price is the 2 best picks they have currently not #20 (happy to give later picks back)

• Bolton - 2 x top 10 picks , Dont care which team it is thats the price
• Baker - equivalent to pick 12-15 nothing less
• Lynch - If there are takers then wish him well get the salary cap off the books and if a reasonable 2025 pick pay half his 2025 salary
• Short - open to offers under #25
• Broad , McIntosh , Graham - Look for a new club

 

[banzai]

Short is expendable because he is too old to be around when we next contend and plays a position we actually have kids coming through in. However, I don't think he'd have enough trade currency to be worth offloading.

We wont be contending with Bolton either who is 26 at the end of this year. Surely no one sees a premiership window when Hopper and Taranto are in there 30s. We are 7-8 years away as we havent drafted our next future stars yet. That should happen over the next 3 years, but then you need a further 3-4 years of development atleast into the 2026 draftees.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Bolton is an icing on the cake type player, but we have no cake.

He only plays 3 or 4 good games a year yet he is perceived as being absolutely elite. For these reasons he is overvalued and will command 2 first rounders.

It's exactly the sort of trade that makes sense for where we are at.

It’s hilarious how people think players who can average 19 touches, 1.5 goals, 0.8 goal assists and 3.6 clearances are easy to come by. They are Bolton’s averages from 2021-24.

Let’s see how many players in 2024 are averaging 18 touches. 1.2 goals. 3 clearances … well below Bolton’s 4-year average:

Bont / Heeney / Rankine / Warner. That’s it.

I hear you … Bolton’s numbers are boosted up by prior seasons. Let’s see how many players match his 2024 averages of 17.8 touches, 1.4 goals and 3.6 clearances….

What do you know …. it’s the 4 x players listed above. That’s it.

And Bolton is playing half forward / mid in a team with 2 wins.



Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Noidnadroj]

nothing to show for it?
there youth will run rings around the lot we currently have.
they got rising stars - we got ?? who Dow
Roo's have got holes in there list, but they have got quality youth who are growing each and every round.

We can become North if you want … they’ve won 13 games in total from 2020-2024…. best part of 5 seasons. (They also won 6 games in 2017 to get LDU).

I 100% guarantee you… not 99%… 100%…. if we win 13 games in total from this season until 2028, we will be a great team again within 2-years of that period… because we would’ve had 5 x top-2 picks plus AFL handouts and free agents leave gifting us charity compensation.

Who cares if North go past us … they started their rebuild (LDU) friggin 8-years ago. Of course they’ll go past us.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[TiggerDK]

But they don't seem to have much trouble winning games at home? It's playing away they struggle.

Good point. Maybe he will stay in Melb and play away games only .
I don’t believe there is any chance Dusty will play for anyone else.
Take that to the bank. My opinion is equal to Schwarz’s headline grabbing BS.

 

[Bird Man]

maybe we need to follow suite

 

[SplintWhisky]

maybe we need to follow suite

Carro admitting she was wrong. My grand father must be freezing his balls off in hell.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Good point. Maybe he will stay in Melb and play away games only .
I don’t believe there is any chance Dusty will play for anyone else.
Take that to the bank. My opinion is equal to Schwarz’s headline grabbing BS.

For someone to be so strong … 100%… take the interest … blah blah … they have to be absolutely certain they are correct. So Schwarz right now has information from a trusted source that Martin will sign with GC for 2-years. It does make a lot of sense to me based on everything that has happened in 2024 thus far.

I’d be very surprised if Martin to GC doesn’t happen. The combo of Graham and Martin out as free agents should net us a fairly tasty compo pick.

Assuming we won’t be contending, I’d love nothing more than Martin winning a 4th Norm Smith with GC in 2025 or 2026.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[THE_GUN]

For someone to be so strong … 100%… take the interest … blah blah … they have to be absolutely certain they are correct. So Schwarz right now has information from a trusted source that Martin will sign with GC for 2-years. It does make a lot of sense to me based on everything that has happened in 2024 thus far.

I’d be very surprised if Martin to GC doesn’t happen. The combo of Graham and Martin out as free agents should net us a fairly tasty compo pick.

Assuming we won’t be contending, I’d love nothing more than Martin winning a 4th Norm Smith with GC in 2025 or 2026.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

We just have to prey some team actually has an interest in graham as a free agent
For that to happen we would have to offer him a contract to use as a base

No ream will be offering him a deal as a free agent if they think they can get him as a delisted free agent and pay him min salary.

We would need to put a deal to him worth $400k x 2 years min if we want somebody to take him at a range that may get us a round 2 pick

Cant see it anymore

 

[sregit]

Here is my thing as I was looking at our list a while ago. If we had all players fit and played on form and not name we could be a lot better as a side.

Think about what a side that looked like could do if playing together

Backs: Miller Balta Gibcus
HB: Rioli Broad Vlastuin
C: McIntosh Ross Ralphsmith
HF: MRJ Kosi Bolton
F: Dusty Lynch Lefau
Fol: Nank Taranto Hopper
Bench: Brown Sonsie Baker Campbell
Sub: Banks

You would find rotations between Dusty, Mansell and McAulife (push Sonsie more on ball when Mansell is in and then have him more hybrid with McAulife). If Kosi of Lefau need that rest or a few confidence boosters then Balta can be thrown forward and we develop Blight or Young more depending on the side we play.

That side is garbage. At least 10+ players listed would not get a game in a top/good team.

Bite the bullet, it's rebuild time. If we have to trade players for picks then do it.

It will take 5+ years to build a side that can compete at a top level. Bolton, Rioli and Baker appear to be the players commanding interest and thus are our bargaining chips. The idea of paying players salaries to play elsewhere can only be considered if very early draft picks are on the table as in 2025 draft picks can be acquired by salary cap trading and that's an opportunity we don't won't to miss.

Keep some senior players that have little interest from other clubs to help with youth development. If necessary bring in senior players from other clubs who are being cut but still have some value.

It's time to go full steam ahead. Delaying the inevitable rebuild will place us in danger of hitting the youth drain when Tassie enters the comp.

 

[Ctl]

caro ruled out trading rioli (ignore the bolton bit)

McClure said he copped a spray from a club media manager on a phone call, got asked if it was Richmond and didn’t say no. I assume it was for this segment. Good to hear the club throwing one back, is the media manger still Simon Mathews?

 

[_RT_]

Dunno why you are assuming north with improve next year
They have been completely shithouse for the best part of 10 years all the while investing and doubling down in the fabled draft yet they have absolutely nothing to show for it

North were good enough to be 8 goals up on the Pies before choking, should have beaten Melbourne and only lost to the Dogs by 3 goals. North are starting to get themselves sorted in terms of a settled side. Very good chance they start climbing next year

 

[Noidnadroj]

That side is garbage. At least 10+ players listed would not get a game in a top/good team.

Bite the bullet, it's rebuild time. If we have to trade players for picks then do it.

It will take 5+ years to build a side that can compete at a top level. Bolton, Rioli and Baker appear to be the players commanding interest and thus are our bargaining chips. The idea of paying players salaries to play elsewhere can only be considered if very early draft picks are on the table as in 2025 draft picks can be acquired by salary cap trading and that's an opportunity we don't won't to miss.

Keep some senior players that have little interest from other clubs to help with youth development. If necessary bring in senior players from other clubs who are being cut but still have some value.

It's time to go full steam ahead. Delaying the inevitable rebuild will place us in danger of hitting the youth drain when Tassie enters the comp.

Hawks team looked like hot garbage when 0-5 at start of 2024, didn’t it?

They’ve won 7 of 8 without much help from pointy end draft picks, so they are not the be all and end all.

They are now thriving in the back of great coaching and 2-years of playing Mitchell’s system.

Just look at their team from the weekend … a big load of traded players, late draft picks and very few top end picks…. At the start of the year they looked like their future was in real trouble relying on the likes of : Chol, D’Ambrosio, Gunston, Meek, Frost, Impey, Amon, Nash etc….

And who are their elite midfielders taken with top-10 draft picks? Ward? (He’s playing VFL). Worpel, Newcombe, Day, Nash… not a top-10 pick to be seen. Worpel, Newcombe and Nash were acquired for a bag of crisps.

We will get 2-3 elite players and probably another 2-3 very good players in the next couple of drafts via ‘natural selection’ and players exiting of their own free will. We don’t need to ‘go nuclear’ to rebuild.

North have been rebuilding since 2017 (they got LDU pick 4 that draft). And in 2024 they remain terrible. I agree they finally look to be improving, but who knows how much in the next 5-years? You cannot possibly not improve when you acquire about 10 x top-5 draft picks over 8-years plus get AFL charity galore.

North went nuclear end of 2016 and look at how long they’ve taken to get to a point where even just being competitive is being celebrated … they are 1-14 FFS 8-years into their rebuild and we are using them as a ‘poster boy’ for what we should do… FMD.

No thanks.

Let’s take all our picks to the draft across 2024-25. Get a few more picks for players who leave of their own accord (Baker, Graham, Dusty?). Retire off some ageing champs even if they want to go on : at least three of Pickett, Prestia, Grimes, Macca. Get our salary cap into a position to launch at a free agent or two around 2026-27.

That’s what we will be doing. And it’s what we should be doing. We will not be proactively trading out any quality, contracted players.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Tiger Toffee]

It's going to be so funny when no one leaves at the end of the season unless delisted or retire.

 

[tigs2010]

Hawks team looked like hot garbage when 0-5 at start of 2024, didn’t it?

They’ve won 7 of 8 without much help from pointy end draft picks, so they are not the be all and end all.

They are now thriving in the back of great coaching and 2-years of playing Mitchell’s system.

Just look at their team from the weekend … a big load of traded players, late draft picks and very few top end picks…. At the start of the year they looked like their future was in real trouble relying on the likes of : Chol, D’Ambrosio, Gunston, Meek, Frost, Impey, Amon, Nash etc….

And who are their elite midfielders taken with top-10 draft picks? Ward? (He’s playing VFL). Worpel, Newcombe, Day, Nash… not a top-10 pick to be seen. Worpel, Newcombe and Nash were acquired for a bag of crisps.

We will get 2-3 elite players and probably another 2-3 very good players in the next couple of drafts via ‘natural selection’ and players exiting of their own free will. We don’t need to ‘go nuclear’ to rebuild.

North have been rebuilding since 2017 (they got LDU pick 4 that draft). And in 2024 they remain terrible. I agree they finally look to be improving, but who knows how much in the next 5-years? You cannot possibly not improve when you acquire about 10 x top-5 draft picks over 8-years plus get AFL charity galore.

North went nuclear end of 2016 and look at how long they’ve taken to get to a point where even just being competitive is being celebrated … they are 1-14 FFS 8-years into their rebuild and we are using them as a ‘poster boy’ for what we should do… FMD.

No thanks.

Let’s take all our picks to the draft across 2024-25. Get a few more picks for players who leave of their own accord (Baker, Graham, Dusty?). Retire off some ageing champs even if they want to go on : at least three of Pickett, Prestia, Grimes, Macca. Get our salary cap into a position to launch at a free agent or two around 2026-27.

That’s what we will be doing. And it’s what we should be doing. We will not be proactively trading out any quality, contracted players.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Hawthorn traded out players for picks and freed up opportunities for youngsters exactly like we should be doing.

They also traded crappy picks for fringe players at other clubs that they identified to fill a hole for them similar to what we did with Houli/Grigg back in the day and exactly like we should be doing.

I do worry about their ceiling though. They'll need the top 10 mids in Ward and Mackenzie to come on and they've hit jackpot with Weddle.

Norf had a low pick in 2017 but were competitive in 2018 & 19. Traded out of 2019 into 2020 and started proper rebuild then, unfortunately for them covid hit and junior footy was non existent. 2021 their marquee pick left so they've really had 2 proper cracks at the draft.

Fingers crossed we don't cop a pandemic and our #1 pick leaves after 1 season.

If we rebuild these 2 off seasons end of 2026 we should be starting to climb and in a position to trade for a missing piece like a gun kpf and we are set once Tassie comes in.

We certainly can't get rid of everyone but we need to get some currency in.

I think Baker & Graham will leave.

Rioli, Bolton, Taranto, Hopper, Miller, Short, Ross Koschitzke and Balta remain in that prime age. Losing one of this age group, on the assumption that player wants to leave isn't going to break us (with exception of Balta for obvious reasons) It will assist us to get the next wave of stars in.

Nank, Vlastuin, Broad, Kamdyn, Pickett, Lynch I think would remain as the experienced guys. Prestia and/or Dusty too.

We then have a lot of players that will be 22-26 next year that are inexperienced but have mature enough bodies. Lefau, Young, Mansell, Ryan, Dow, Ralphsmith, Blight, Bauer, Sonsie, Gibcus, Brown, Clarke, Banks, Trezise, Rioli Jr. 2025/26 will see a bunch of these guys hit 50 games.

Lastly we have our youth from last 2 drafts. McAuliffe, Campbell, Smith, Green, Fawcett and Gray (still pretty skinny so putting him here). We desperately need to stock this part of our list up.

Our biggest issue is that in the youth and inexperienced categories above its hard to see many A Graders outside Gibcus if he's not broken. We do have a good core of young role players though if they can stay fit.

2025 I'm expecting bottom 2. 2026 hopefully start to climb and 2027 hopefully we start to break out like the Hawks are.