List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency talk Pt 8

[_RT_]

 

[Muddiemoose]

Hey Tiges,

Just for what it's worth, ITK mail on the North Melb side of things is that LDU will be staying at North.

Media starting to also report he's likely staying.

Cheers mates

View attachment 2042327

Don’t get me wrong I would absolutely love it and genuinely looks like he’s ready to cement himself in the top handful players in the comp for the foreseeable future but don’t think he would be the right move for us right now either

We need Young talent that we can cultivate ourselves and a good handful of players, LDU would cost so much in that department it would be the last thing we should be doing right now

 

[tigs2010]

Now that's more likely Gold Coast will finish lower than Brisbane and Carlton, what would it take for us to get our hands on one of their first rounders?
If Lombard went pick 5 for example, what would the benefit be for Gold Coast to trade out one of their high picks from a points perspective?

Will all come down to points and how many we end up with. I think GC may have enough already. They'll try trade for players (Rioli), upgrade ahead of the bid or trade into next year.

 

[Tzatziki_Man]

Yeah but you have an inside midfielder as a half back with no running Half Back player at all.

No proper small defenders so any small forward is absolutely going to carve us up.

You have 4 talls running through the forward line (excluding Ryan)

Prestia still being in the team is wild. Would be better to fast track draftees and maybe put Sonsie in the rotations.

Dusty still in the side is a hindrance for our long term goals unless he can start to show some more. He has to play better than the sum of playing and developing a kid.

I understand it is trying to polish a turd but this team would have us investigated for match fixing.

Unfortunately once again, this is what we have on our list.

1. Damien Hardwick found great success playing midfielders off the half back line so they can learn how to read the game well. Dusty himself started on the half back flank. For you to suggest this is a preposterous move shows your lack of knowledge of the game. Sheezel for North Melbourne, McKercher, all played as midfielders, even Nick Daicos, all started off half back. The reason this move is utilised in the AFL is because midfielders tend to have big bodies, seasoned players with a few pre seasons. I know our supporters are drooling for a midfield combo of Dow, Sonsie and McAullife, but they're boys, in teenage bodies, playing a man's game.

McAullife in particular has limited fitness, he can't even run out games, where do you suggest he's played ? Ruck rover? Lol he will get all semblance of confidence wiped clear from his palette.

2. Jayden Short is small, and he's a defender, Vlastuin plays small and tall. Theyre being paid too much money to sit on the sidelines, besides, i want to pump development into Blight, Miller, Gibcus and give him 50+ games together.

3. Prestia when fit, makes all the difference in our team. He is very underrated here. Unfortunately he keeps getting injured. But when fully fit, he is top 6 on our list mate.

4. The talls being too many? I'll accept that criticism.

 

[Serenitylater]

Lmao people on here wanting to trade players like Baker for a pick in the teens.
You don't move on very good players like Baker for a speculative pick. If he wants to go then that's different. This guy is a top ten pick every day of the week.
And yes I know he's out of contract.

 

[voorhees]

Lmao people on here wanting to trade players like Baker for a pick in the teens.
You don't move on very good players like Baker for a speculative pick. If he wants to go then that's different. This guy is a top ten pick every day of the week.
And yes I know he's out of contract.

your being generous with a top 10 pick every day of the week
very generous..

 

[beema limapep]

your being generous with a top 10 pick every day of the week
very generous..

If he goes to freo we will get a pick around 12-13 and a second rounder, which is basically equal to a top 10 pick.

And with West Coast also interested it will only up the stakes.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

i'm all for setting the list alight and basically starting over
if that means 15-20 new kids into the club over the next 3 years, so be it
because of our success, we have not been to the well of the draft for many years now and it shows on our list
were trash and need to turn over

We had 5 good picks in the 2021 draft. 3 of those played in our AFL team on the weekend, the other 2 have done ACL's, and will hopefully be back up to full power for the start of the 2026 season, which is much faster than almost any new draftee could be firing.

From our last 4 drafts/SSP/MSD's we have the following players in alphabetical order who look to have some sort of realistic prospects at this stage:

Banks, Blight, Brown, Campbell, Clarke, Gibcus, Lefau, Mansell, McAuliffe, Maurice Rioli, Ryan, Smith, Sonsie, Trezise, Young.

You are expecting about 8 decent AFL football careers from that lot. The bolded players have already shown enough to suggest they can provide key weapons in different areas of the ground.

That is not including the following group from where 1-2 players could yet rise to being decent AFL footballers: Bauer, Colina, Coulthard, Fawcett, Gray, Green, Hayes-Brown.

There are good prospects for all sorts of positions there. What is not included is the one thing we definitely need to acquire, quality dynamic mids who can hurt the opposition. We don't necessarily need to be looking for better versions of the positions we already look to have well covered.

 

[jthanos]

Bit of a small trade update from Tiger71 on the Tigercast tonight.

• Maintains Dusty will either stay or retire and believes Ox was outright lying or just regurgitating what other journalists have said.
• Still believes Baker will stay even though the popular belief is that he will leave. He even double checked with his sauce and they are still firm that he will stay unless something changes. The reason he hasn't signed yet is because we typically do a lot of our big business toward the end of the year.
• The need for key forward depth is evident and we are looking into it.
• (Personally hate this one) Graham might stay, was previously sure he was going but thinks Yze is trying to convince him to stay.
• Bolton and Rioli staying
• Here's the big one... I don't want to put words in his mouth but by the way he worded it, it sounds like we have more than a base level interest in LDU.

In my opinion, I'm excited by the LDU talk because he is the type of midfielder we are lacking. Big bodied and dynamic.

re: The need for key forward depth is evident and we are looking into it.
- Matthew Jefferson from the Demons ? seem to be ignored, we were into him prior to swapping picks for Taranto & Hopper....

 

[Tzatziki_Man]

re: The need for key forward depth is evident and we are looking into it.
- Matthew Jefferson from the Demons ? seem to be ignored, we were into him prior to swapping picks for Taranto & Hopper....

If he was good enough, he'd be playing foe the demons, as the demons don't have any forward depth themselves

 

[tiger_tough]

Jefferson stinks.

 

[beema limapep]

Really. Where have you been ?

Early in the season last year he was open being talked about as possibly the best player in the comp. You only have to look at him to see that at his best he can do all of those things I mentioned.

So you'd be happy to force out potentially the best player in the comp at 25 for a couple of untried 18 yo kids that might never be as good ?

Noted.

Your assuming Bolton being potential best player in the comp is virtually 100% likely, whilst anyone else will merely be an 18 year old kid off the streets.

Mate currently he's not the best player at our club (I'd put at least Taranto, Vlastuin and Rioli ahead of him). In games where he doesn't turn up (very often) he's not even top 10 on the field.

Even if he goes on to be a star I'd take 2 x 10 year solid, dependable B to A graders ahead of him. The club needs best 22 players not 5 years of icing without a cake. If he happens to win a brownlow in Perth I couldn't care less because he isn't going to win one whilst we are rebuilding.

 

[_RT_]

I don't mind this.
But Tyler Young is still contracted, so would need to stay on the list unless traded?
Colina is a cat B,
Coulthard is a rookie,
So this frees up 8 primary list spots and 1 rookie spot - but our 2 MSD picks make 2 extra rookies.
Are we allowed 7 rookies + 1 Cat B ? If needs to be less, Bauer, Blight (I'm that confident in him), Trezise or Campbell upgraded to main list.
Seven spots in the national draft. Currently 7 picks in top 60, roughly:

2

22

32

40

41

50

58

If other clubs aren't cutting their lists as deeply as us, by taking a lot of picks to the draft it gives us better value in pick trading on the night.

Thought Young was out of contract for some reason.

Of my cuts, 8 senior listed & 2 rookies, keeping Blight & Gray replaces Colina & Coulthard as rookies, we could take 5-7 kids in the draft and leave spots open for SSP/MSD

 

[Noidnadroj]

Thank god. Not that he's not a gun but we shouldn't be chasing contracted guns at this stage.

Also you'd have to question his brain if he chose to leave North now for us after already doing the hard yards

I think any LDU talk would be end of 2025 when he’s a RFA… so we’d get him for nothing. Obviously that’d be gold, but it’s not gonna happen.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Bojangles17]

think we all want a better offer..
but the reality might be this could well be it from the eagles
*understand few highly value Baker and would scoff at that offer- but I would accept ( if baker agrees to depart)

There are times like sat night when many would question his value as a r1 pic , 25 is unders coz you simply don’t get too many 200 game players there , but top 10 he ain’t

 

[Bojangles17]

Will ‘star’ this and come back to it at the end of the trade period. I have a feeling there will be a few crosses next to it

The LDU chat is laughable.

We’d be the last club he’d join unless we offered 3m a year

 

[Bojangles17]

It’s not a bidding war where we get the best picks. Baker will choose his club and that club will get the deal done.

If he’s traded it’ll be pick 12-16. Could be Corey Ellis, Ben Lennon, Lachie O’Brien or some other useless spud. Could also be Cripps or Butters. So don’t think for a second not trading one of our best players who is only 26yo is somehow gonna be some form of major problem for our future.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again … there’s a reason teams don’t proactively trade out quality players…. ever.

Here’s why …. look at the percentage of players that reach each game milestone:

50-games: 31%. Yes, less than one in three players get to 50.

100: 18%

150: 9.1%

200: 4.5%

250: 1.9%

300: 0.67%

The average number of games played by a draftee from 11-20 is 118. The average number of Brownlow votes is 16.6.

For picks 11-20, only 38% play 140+ games. 47% do NOT get to 80-games. The average number of years taken to reach 50-games is 5-years.

Average number of picks needed between 11-20 to get an AA player is 5.7.

Average number of picks between 11-20 to get someone who plays under 10-games is 6.3.

So with a pick between 11-20 for Baker we are about the same odds of getting a sub 10-game player as we are someone who makes an AA team in their career. In average, we’d need 6 x picks between 11-20 to get 1 x AA player.

This is why quality players are not proactively traded out.

Now I’m of the opinion losing Baker for a quality pick is not a bad result. And retaining him is not a bad result either. But I’m more supportive of trading Rioli (if he wants to leave) who’s 15-months older, and someone we’d be more likely to get big overs in a trade as he’s contracted and GC have huge draft assets. For Baker we will get relative market value.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

I’m ok with losing him but feel like I’m cornholed getting a r2 that ends up like 25

 

[captain cotch 9]

the reality is that Graham, Short, Broad, Baker and Rioli are all easily replaceable and not match winners so IMO we should be looking to offload 2-3 of them to get in picks.
Bolton is frustrating but can win us games. We must keep him IMO.

 

[beema limapep]

Bolton has been much better than Dusty the last 4 years it's not even close.

Jack Dyer Medal votes total 2021-2023 (last 3 completed years).

Martin 113 from 45 games = Ave 2.51 votes
Bolton 148 from 65 games = Ave 2.27 votes

And Martin finished above him not 10 months ago in 2023.

Or by Brownlow umpire votes

Martin 21 from 45 games = 0.466
Bolton 31 from 65 games = 0.476

But you think Bolton in the last 4 years is "so much better it's not even close"?

 

[Noidnadroj]

Here’s a great resource to check before throwing out trade plans you think will skyrocket us to a flag:

AFL Draft Pick Value Comparison - All Time - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

There’s a lot of assumptions about first round picks etc… but reality is finding AA calibre players or A-graders is very bloody hard - most picks outside the top handful are far inferior players to Bolton, Baker and Rioli.

Getting draft picks in and ‘scatter gunning’ the next 2 x drafts with as many top-30 picks as we can I think is a wise move overall … but it’s absolutely pointless if it only comes from trading out 25-27yo elite players.

It must be done strategically (ie turning loads of 30-50 x picks into top-20 picks via point swaps). And getting those later picks by trading out fringe players like Soldo (tick), Graham (FA). I think we will lose at least 1 x quality player, and that’s enough IMO along with what we already have in draft capital.

If 2025 is a complete shocker and our current crop of youngsters are worse than we currently think they are, then we can still
Improve our draft hand in 2025 if the likes of Rioli want to explore options.

There’s no need to panic and trade out everyone of quality aged 25-28yo right now.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[beema limapep]

Here’s a great resource to check before throwing out trade plans you think will skyrocket us to a flag:

AFL Draft Pick Value Comparison - All Time - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

There’s a lot of assumptions about first round picks etc… but reality is finding AA calibre players or A-graders is very bloody hard - most picks outside the top handful are far inferior players to Bolton, Baker and Rioli.

Getting draft picks in and ‘scatter gunning’ the next 2 x drafts with as many top-30 picks as we can I think is a wise move overall … but it’s absolutely pointless if it only comes from trading out 25-27yo elite players.

It must be done strategically (ie turning loads of 30-50 x picks into top-20 picks via point swaps). And getting those later picks by trading out fringe players like Soldo (tick), Graham (FA). I think we will lose at least 1 x quality player, and that’s enough IMO along with what we already have in draft capital.

If 2025 is a complete shocker and our current crop of youngsters are worse than we currently think they are, then we can still
Improve our draft hand in 2025 if the likes of Rioli want to explore options.

There’s no need to panic and trade out everyone of quality aged 25-28yo right now.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

If people think we are 2 to 3 years off from genuine success, then yes the above I would mostly agree with.

If we are 4 to 6 years off (remembering that players have to develop and 25 to 27 year old will be mostly gone or slowing down) then it's worth taking the moderate risk of trading out now.

The greater risk is holding onto your 25-27 year olds and not properly rebuilding, and having nothing to show for it in 5 years but a string of 7th to 12th finishes and a weaker list overall.

Don't forget by moving some players on we also have free up the cash for players who better suit our needs.

As the saying goes, if nothing changes, nothing changes.

 

[beema limapep]

Noidnadroj I'd also say that I'm not advocating for a complete clear out of Bolton plus Baker plus Short plus Graham plus Rioli plus Lynch plus Martin plus Prestia plus MacIntosh plus Broad plus Pickett. Although a couple of those will retire I'm sure.

But I'd be putting 4 or 5 on the table and seeing what happens.

 

[Willo_23]

Noidnadroj I'd also say that I'm not advocating for a complete clear out of Bolton plus Baker plus Short plus Graham plus Rioli plus Lynch plus Martin plus Prestia plus MacIntosh plus Broad plus Pickett. Although a couple of those will retire I'm sure.

But I'd be putting 4 or 5 on the table and seeing what happens.

It's going to be such an interesting off-season, there's not going to be a shortage to talk about thats for sure.

Still have our own re-signings to make yet and the appointment of a CEO as well!

 

[TJTIGER]

Why trade Bolton this year
when we could have him for another year and trade him in 2025 for the same price

Possible risk of injury & to have a group of young players coming through together? Not that I’m in a hurry to the back of Shai but he does seem more of a cream on top player & it’s not where we are at right now?
But if our full list is fit next year I expect/hope for a big bounce back…

 

[tora tora tora]

Given it is a good draft if we could get extra top 20 picks I'd be all for it. It would be like having 2 or 3 draft years in one which should speed up our way up

Yze & the club thought we could've made finals. Instead a 2nd injury ravaged season has delivered 18th.

Grimes
Naismith
Prestia
retire
Colina
Cumberland
Coulthard
Green
delist.
Trade one or 2 players. Maybe anyone being discussed. Maybe the club want to accelerate it and trade a few more players.

End of 2025 we have as big a list or retirees
Lynch
Martin.
Kmac
Pickett
Broad
trade a couple

delist a few.

We'll be at the good end of the draft if we can't get our keep our good players on the park

 

[fargothegreat]

Hey Tiges,

Just for what it's worth, ITK mail on the North Melb side of things is that LDU will be staying at North.

Media starting to also report he's likely staying.

Cheers mates

View attachment 2042327

I don't think LDU leaves, and especially not to us, but the last time your board had an ITK poster you guys had Dusty signed, sealed and delivered