Trading the #1 pick

[The_Steadier]

Did amazingly well with the Carlisle situation.

You are correct however that was about limiting the damage of someone leaving.

Adrian's strike rate of completing significant trades to bring players or picks IN is 0%.

(Unless of course you count over the hill acquisitions like cooney and goddard).

That track record alone makes me suggest the bombers keep pick 1.

 

[Ants]

You are correct however that was about limiting the damage of someone leaving.

Adrian's strike rate of completing significant trades to bring players or picks IN is 0%.

(Unless of course you count over the hill acquisitions like cooney and goddard).

That track record alone makes me suggest the bombers keep pick 1.

Although I don't disagree with you per-se, I would point out that the sample size is tiny. Really only Caddy is the "major" player who has nominated us and a deal didn't go through, and hindsight implies we offered good value (better than he went for the next year). So if a deal is wanted to be done (i.e. a player nominates us, GWS want the #1 pick), it is a little hard to know how it would go.

Our issue has been more about getting players to nominate us, and Dodoro did get Prismall and Goddard to do so in 2008 and 2012. A bit understandable that he hasn't ever since the drugs saga broke.

 

[The_Steadier]

Although I don't disagree with you per-se, I would point out that the sample size is tiny. Really only Caddy is the "major" player who has nominated us and a deal didn't go through, and hindsight implies we offered good value (better than he went for the next year). So if a deal is wanted to be done (i.e. a player nominates us, GWS want the #1 pick), it is a little hard to know how it would go.

Our issue has been more about getting players to nominate us, and Dodoro did get Prismall and Goddard to do so in 2008 and 2012. A bit understandable that he hasn't ever since the drugs saga broke.

It will certainly be interesting to see how it pans out.
I think the bombers should definitely split pick 1.
But I'm thinking it won't happen because Adrian's default tactics seem to be "here's my price, take it or leave it".

Which works well when you're NOT the one trying to get something IN. (ala the Carlisle trade last year)

But when you're the one motivated to make it happen, like essendon are in this case- those take it or leave it tactics don't work in most cases.

I reckon Adrian will set a price like 5 & 7 (take it or leave it) and will play chicken with gws up until deadline.

I don't think gws will flinch therefore it wont happen.

That's what my crystal balls say anyway.

 

[Ants]

It will certainly be interesting to see how it pans out.
I think the bombers should definitely split pick 1.
But I'm thinking it won't happen because Adrian's default tactics seem to be "here's my price, take it or leave it".

Which works well when you're NOT the one trying to get something IN. (ala the Carlisle trade last year)

But when you're the one motivated to make it happen, like essendon are in this case- those take it or leave it tactics don't work in most cases.

I reckon Adrian will set a price like 5 & 7 (take it or leave it) and will play chicken with gws up until deadline.

I don't think gws will flinch therefore it wont happen.

That's what my crystal balls say anyway.

But has the take it or leave it approach real, or just BF rumours? i.e. in the end we caved on Crameri and Ryder. We obviously negotiated a while on Carlisle and got a good result. But plenty of other deals (including two with GWS) have gone through smoothly. Melksham, Cooney, Giles, Edwards/Aylett, Monfries just from the last few years. You could certainly understand Essendon's stance on players being poached being very different from where both sides see a mutual benefit.

It's interesting to see how the media are saying the potential deal is #5 and #7. Is that their speculation (likely), or coming from one of the camps. Who knows.

 

[The_Steadier]

But has the take it or leave it approach real, or just BF rumours? i.e. in the end we caved on Crameri and Ryder. We obviously negotiated a while on Carlisle and got a good result. But plenty of other deals (including two with GWS) have gone through smoothly. Melksham, Cooney, Giles, Edwards/Aylett, Monfries just from the last few years. You could certainly understand Essendon's stance on players being poached being very different from where both sides see a mutual benefit.

It's interesting to see how the media are saying the potential deal is #5 and #7. Is that their speculation (likely), or coming from one of the camps. Who knows.

The crameri and ryder deals did or nearly did go to mediation right? Like caddy too?
I'm not sure, that's why I'm asking- but thats my impression.

Even if they didn't they all went down to the last possible moment right?
Doesn't exactly point to anything other than take it or leave it tactics that result in either nothing happening or a last minute cave in.

Of those you listed above- as i said earlier it's effective when players or picks are leaving so take all but giles and cooney out (sorry i dont know who Edwards /aylett are, maybe them too?, they were hardly high profile trades thou)
Either way giles and cooney were probably free agents and/or not worth much so you'd expect smooth sailing.

As i said originally i think his tactics of holding out and not doing any of the negotiating (until the last second cave in) severely hampers SIGNIFICANT (high profile) trade IN's happening, like trading pick 1.

 

[Ants]

The crameri and ryder deals did or nearly did go to mediation right? Like caddy too?
I'm not sure, that's why I'm asking- but thats my impression.

Even if they didn't they all went down to the last possible moment right?
Doesn't exactly point to anything other than take it or leave it tactics that result in either nothing happening or a last minute cave in.

Of those you listed above- as i said earlier it's effective when players or picks are leaving so take all but giles and cooney out (sorry i dont know who Edwards /aylett are, maybe them too?, they were hardly high profile trades thou)
Either way giles and cooney were probably free agents and/or not worth much so you'd expect smooth sailing.

As i said originally i think his tactics of holding out and not doing any of the negotiating (until the last second cave in) severely hampers SIGNIFICANT (high profile) trade IN's happening, like trading pick 1.

Ryder definitely went to mediation, but I believe we may have initiated that. Given both deals got done, and both involved us losing out big time, I don't think they are evidence of a "take it or leave it" position. And hardly surprising we spent a lot of time trying to improve a bad position. Two examples where the clubs put us over a barrel doesn't seem like great evidence to me.

At the end of the day the sample size is really too small to know. Unless you're Collingwood or Brisbane who seem to have heaps of trades, most teams don't have more than one or two big trades every 5 years or so. Because of the saga, players haven't wanted to come to us. We've mostly been in the position of desperately trying to get value for good players wanting out in an environment where the media/AFL/AFLPA are all emphasising we should accept anything. As I say, it doesn't really indicate much of anything about how we'd go about a trade where things are seen as mutually beneficial, and where have had those (albeit, low profile one) they've all gone smoothly.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

If we get 5 and 7 for 1 we will be laughing.

Would rather a higher pick then 7.

 

[Seb78]

Yes we do, but people are assuming it will head to GWS as part of a deal for Marchbank.

No way will Carlton give pick 5 for marchbank lol

 

[Ants]

Would rather a higher pick then 7.

If we get offered #5 and #7 for #1 and steak knives (e.g. #37) we should take that so fast that we make Bolt look slow. As I stated above, there are reasons why GWS may want to do that and it will be win win, but it is DEFINTELY a win for Essendon.

 

[The_Steadier]

No way will Carlton give pick 5 for marchbank lol

As part of the deal

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

If we get offered #5 and #7 for #1 and steak knives (e.g. #37) we should take that so fast that we make Bolt look slow. As I stated above, there are reasons why GWS may want to do that and it will be win win, but it is DEFINTELY a win for Essendon.

Don't want to miss out on Mccluagge or Brodie.

 

[citizen-erased]

You are correct however that was about limiting the damage of someone leaving.

Adrian's strike rate of completing significant trades to bring players or picks IN is 0%.

(Unless of course you count over the hill acquisitions like cooney and goddard).

That track record alone makes me suggest the bombers keep pick 1.

As mentioned above, caddy is the only target we lost to someone else and in the end we just didn't have the currency, even though they eventually took less from Geelong

Other targets have opted to stay. Boak, gaff, Mundy, Cloke.
Gunston was a bit of a balls up but from what I've heard, that was more the commitment he would be a forward vs a defender (or some indecision)
After that, we just weren't a destination club.
But in trading pick 1, id be hoping for a strong pick haul in this draft

 

[Suma Magic]

Expect Bombers to be putting out the message that they have their eye on McGrath (even if not true).

 

[Jeremias]

No way will Carlton give pick 5 for marchbank lol

Correct. Would require a fair bit more for us to consider giving up that pick.

 

[Ants]

Don't want to miss out on Mccluagge or Brodie.

If one team bids on Bowes, we are a strong chance to get Brodie if we have #5. Or if Freo go a tall.

 

[Lance Uppercut]

It will certainly be interesting to see how it pans out.
I think the bombers should definitely split pick 1.
But I'm thinking it won't happen because Adrian's default tactics seem to be "here's my price, take it or leave it".

Which works well when you're NOT the one trying to get something IN. (ala the Carlisle trade last year)

But when you're the one motivated to make it happen, like essendon are in this case- those take it or leave it tactics don't work in most cases.

I reckon Adrian will set a price like 5 & 7 (take it or leave it) and will play chicken with gws up until deadline.

I don't think gws will flinch therefore it wont happen.

That's what my crystal balls say anyway.

what the actual ****?

EFC aren't shopping Pick 1 around. But will consider offers that are so good it makes it worth it.

Therefore, by definition, they aren't the ones motivated to make it happen. Even if your bizarre assertion of Dodoro's modus operandi were true, take it or leave it is an entirely fine approach to take. The worst case scenario, according to you, is that EFC take Pick 1 to the draft. Gee, I can see why they are so motivated. Not...

Christ you make it sound like EFC are desperate to get rid of it. Very strange interpretation of objective facts.

 

[Chasing 17]

This thread should be renamed to Who will Essendon draft with Carlton's Pick #5.

 

[BigBen_JRC]

Its amazing how in every other year the club with the #1 pick holds the power in the trade for it. Suddenly the Dons (potentially) hold it and the power is some how reversed.

As a Dons fan, I would indeed prefer two lower picks but be under no false illusion, we would happily take it to the draft (from a fans perspective ofc).

Essendon hold ALL the power in this trade, that is the fact. If not we will take Clug or Brodie or anyone we choose

 

[The_Steadier]

what the actual ****?

EFC aren't shopping Pick 1 around. But will consider offers that are so good it makes it worth it.

Therefore, by definition, they aren't the ones motivated to make it happen. Even if your bizarre assertion of Dodoro's modus operandi were true, take it or leave it is an entirely fine approach to take. The worst case scenario, according to you, is that EFC take Pick 1 to the draft. Gee, I can see why they are so motivated. Not...

Christ you make it sound like EFC are desperate to get rid of it. Very strange interpretation of objective facts.

Of course it's your pick to trade.

I was merely pointing out that it's not going to net you a massive overs deal like 5 and 7.

If that's the level of deal Adrian sets then it will most certainly stay where it currently resides.

Whether keeping pick 1 is better for EFC than say 5 and a teens pick, we'll find out.

I know it i were a dons fan I'd be hoping the club seriously considered something like 5 plus a teen pick.

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

It will certainly be interesting to see how it pans out.
I think the bombers should definitely split pick 1.
But I'm thinking it won't happen because Adrian's default tactics seem to be "here's my price, take it or leave it".

Which works well when you're NOT the one trying to get something IN. (ala the Carlisle trade last year)

But when you're the one motivated to make it happen, like essendon are in this case- those take it or leave it tactics don't work in most cases.

I reckon Adrian will set a price like 5 & 7 (take it or leave it) and will play chicken with gws up until deadline.

I don't think gws will flinch therefore it wont happen.

That's what my crystal balls say anyway.

I don't see what's wrong with that, because the trade wouldn't be worth doing for us unless we got something in the neighbourhood of 5 and 7. The #1 pick isn't demanding a trade so why would we even entertain the idea of accepting less just to get the deal done?

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

what the actual ****?

EFC aren't shopping Pick 1 around. But will consider offers that are so good it makes it worth it.

Therefore, by definition, they aren't the ones motivated to make it happen. Even if your bizarre assertion of Dodoro's modus operandi were true, take it or leave it is an entirely fine approach to take. The worst case scenario, according to you, is that EFC take Pick 1 to the draft. Gee, I can see why they are so motivated. Not...

Christ you make it sound like EFC are desperate to get rid of it. Very strange interpretation of objective facts.

This confuses me, if we don't trade pick 1 can it leave us as a delisted free agent??? I heard Paul Connors is managing the #1 pick and he's determined to get it out of Essendon.

 

[The_Steadier]

This confuses me, if we don't trade pick 1 can it leave us as a delisted free agent??? I heard Paul Connors is managing the #1 pick and he's determined to get it out of Essendon.

I wouldn't worry it wont happen unless a superstar like craig bird is involved

 

[Swans20052012]

I think if the Bombers could get a couple of good picks out of GWS or GC they should go ahead and do it

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

I wouldn't worry it wont happen unless a superstar like craig bird is involved

Yeah, **** Craig Bird for agreeing to take part in a trade and helping your club reach a good outcome. What a dick.

 

[Lance Uppercut]

Of course it's your pick to trade.

I was merely pointing out that it's not going to net you a massive overs deal like 5 and 7.

If that's the level of deal Adrian sets then it will most certainly stay where it currently resides.

Whether keeping pick 1 is better for EFC than say 5 and a teens pick, we'll find out.

I know it i were a dons fan I'd be hoping the club seriously considered something like 5 plus a teen pick.

well, you can "point out" whatever you like. You really have no idea, but you're entitled to your opinion.

I think the general consensus is that you don't trade out pick 1 unless it's for a ridiculously good deal. So EFC's "fallback position" is to go to the draft with pick 1. If anyone wants it, then they have to pry it out of us. Hence why there's conjecture around picks like 5 and 7. That seems like a good deal.

Pick 5 and a pick in the teens sounds like a shit deal, and it staggers me that you think there is some kind of desperation around this that EFC would even contemplate doing that. Hence, Dodoro can sit back all he likes and wait for offers to come in, despite what you seem to think. Because going to the draft with Pick 1 is a pretty sweet outcome