Treatment versus Vaccine

[HTT]

Assuming the asymptomatic knew to get a test done and thus be included in the positive case numbers.

Lets assume the number of counted active cases at the peak is 70% of the actual active cases at the peak.
The new hopsitalisation rate (unvaccinated) is 0.7 * 0.015 = 1.05%
Total hopsitalisations in 25 million = 262,500

Hopsitalisation rate (AZ) = 0.08%
80% vax rate hopsitalisations = 68,500
100% = 20,000

Hospitalisation rate (Pfizer) = 0.04%
80% vax rate hospitalisations = 60,500
100% = 10,000

 

[Red Black and Blue]

So many orders of magnitude higher IFR than the flu then.

Absolutely. In people over the average age of life expectancy.

The equation is young suicide vs very old people croaking. I personally prefer young people killing themselves as it takes more time off my morning commute.

 

[Harlequin Dream]

The IFR is pretty well established in the 0.5% to 1% range. Which is 10x seasonal flu.

Effective early treatments and therapeutics would be an addition to vaccines and not a replacement.

 

[The 747]

Absolutely. In people over the average age of life expectancy.

The equation is young suicide vs very old people croaking. I personally prefer young people killing themselves as it takes more time off my morning commute.

Oh I wasn't aware there had been an increase in youth suicide - makes sense based on what people post here. Where you did get that information?

 

[Fryman]

Lets assume the number of counted active cases at the peak is 70% of the actual active cases at the peak.
The new hopsitalisation rate (unvaccinated) is 0.7 * 0.015 = 1.05%
Total hopsitalisations in 25 million = 262,500

Hopsitalisation rate (AZ) = 0.08%
80% vax rate hopsitalisations = 68,500
100% = 20,000

Hospitalisation rate (Pfizer) = 0.04%
80% vax rate hospitalisations = 60,500
100% = 10,000

I just knocked 30% of your doomsday scenario with 10 seconds of critical thinking.

I’m wondering how your numbers would hold up with further analysis.

 

[Harlequin Dream]

Absolutely. In people over the average age of life expectancy.

It's more deadly for all adult age groups.

There's a reason why the death toll for those under 65 in the US is 126,000 for COVID-19 and 10,000 a year for flu.

 

[HTT]

I just knocked 30% of your doomsday scenario with 10 seconds of critical thinking.

I’m wondering how your numbers would hold up with further analysis.

You also knocked 30% off my good scenarios. The point is to illustrate the effectiveness of the vaccines.

 

[Fryman]

Oh I wasn't aware there had been an increase in youth suicide - makes sense based on what people post here. Where you did get that information?

There isn’t an increase. At least not from anything I found, and I looked hard because it’s intuitive and I am against most of the lockdown measures implemented

There is some data from the ambulance services that self-harm, suicide attempts and suicide ideation are up, but to draw a connection between that and lockdown would be disingenuous given the variables involved.

 

[The Sultan]

not sure about others on here but i dont tend to take medical advise from facebook/tiktok/insta or a footy forum. I usually listen to the person with the title doctor or professor of medicine/ immuniology (or other relavent field), anything else is just hot air.

just get the jab dont be a pussy

 

[The 747]

There isn’t an increase. At least not from anything I found, and I looked hard because it’s intuitive and I am against most of the lockdown measures implemented

There is some data from the ambulance services that self-harm, suicide attempts and suicide ideation are up, but to draw a connection between that and lockdown would be disingenuous given the variables involved.

Thanks appreciate the info. I imagine general mental health is not great, especially for the young adults, but fortunately it seems that it has not manifested in really bad outcomes so far

 

[The Sultan]

Thanks appreciate the info. I imagine general mental health is not great, especially for the young adults, but fortunately it seems that it has not manifested in really bad outcomes so far

annicdotally i can say that this lock down (in Melb) has taken a big toll on peoples mental well being, much more than other lockdowns.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

annicdotally i can say that this lock down (in Melb) has taken a big toll on peoples mental well being, much more than other lockdowns.

I certainly feels that way.

My opinion is that the reality that this isn't over, and possibly never will be, finally hit people.

Previous lockdowns, amd everything else pandemic related was seen by many as short term necessity until shit gets back to normal in the not too distant future.

I think reality has hit home now though.

 

[The Sultan]

I certainly feels that way.

My opinion is that the reality that this isn't over, and possibly never will be, finally hit people.

Previous lockdowns, amd everything else pandemic related was seen by many as short term necessity until sh*t gets back to normal in the not too distant future.

I think reality has hit home now though.

yep it is going to be years before we get "back to normal".. i dont see international travel being a thing for quite a while.

the quicker everyone gets vaxed the quicker we can get ontop of it and minimise it..

 

[kingswood71]

Sure, but tell me the risk of a healthy unvaccinated 18 year old ending up in hospital with covid first.

Then we can make a judgment on how valuable vaccinating them is.

14.9 per 100,000 in Florida (18-19 year olds)

 

[Fryman]

14.9 per 100,000 in Florida (18-19 year olds)

So you have a 99.999851% chance of avoiding hospitalisation if you are 18-19 years old.

 

[Harlequin Dream]

So you have a 99.999851% chance of avoiding hospitalisation if you are 18-19 years old.

99.985%

 

[faible]

So you have a 99.999851% chance of avoiding hospitalisation if you are 18-19 years old.

What happens if the hospital is full of other COVID patients when you have a car accident and need the ICU?

 

[Fryman]

99.985%

My maths is crap - forgot to multiply by 100.

Thank you.

 

[Fryman]

What happens if the hospital is full of other COVID patients when you have a car accident and need the ICU?

That’s just a 99.985% chance to avoid hospitalisation, I imagine the odds of an unvaccinated 18 year old ending up in ICU from Covid is infinitesimally smaller.

Or do you have a different view?

 

[faible]

That’s just a 99.985% chance to avoid hospitalisation, I imagine the odds of an unvaccinated 18 year old ending up in ICU from Covid is infinitesimally smaller.

Or do you have a different view?

It's more the point that COVID cases aren't a vacuum. You can't say "oh it's no risk to 18 year olds so they don't need to worry about it" when we know that they're part of the process of spreading it to people that are impacted by it, and that it causes a flow-on effect to the rest of the healthcare system.

Need an ambulance for a heart attack or car accident? Bad luck, they're full of COVID patients.

Need a surgeon? Bad luck they're in the 50+ category and are off sick with COVID.

Trying to draw it down to say "oh there's only a 0.015% chance of hospitalisation" is a very simplistic view.

 

[Fryman]

You can't say "oh it's no risk to 18 year olds so they don't need to worry about it" when we know that they're part of the process of spreading it to people that are impacted by it,

Given the vaccine doesn’t stop the spread and those people that are at risk are already vaccinated then what benefit do we get from vaccinating healthy 18 year olds.

 

[faible]

Given the vaccine doesn’t stop the spread and those people that are at risk are already vaccinated then what benefit do we get from vaccinating healthy 18 year olds.

Last I saw the data showed it reduces the risks of both catching it and passing it on. That data may have since changed. It's not 0, but it's less than unvaccinated people.

 

[kingswood71]

Given the vaccine doesn’t stop the spread and those people that are at risk are already vaccinated then what benefit do we get from vaccinating healthy 18 year olds.

Because some of the 18 year olds may end up in hospital. if we said 14 per 100,000 that is still about 199 people that still need a hospital bed.

 

[Fryman]

Because some of the 18 year olds may end up in hospital. if we said 14 per 100,000 that is still about 199 people that still need a hospital bed.

Over what time frame and I’m guessing you assumed every single 18 yo contracts covid?

 

[kingswood71]

Over what time frame and I’m guessing you assumed every single 18 yo contracts covid?

I cant accurately predict a time frame of exposure/contact. Suffice to say, that I would suspect that (once opened up) almost all Australians will encounter Sars-Cov-2 in one form or another at some stage.