- Apr 1, 2013
- 2,453
- 5,092
- AFL Club
- West Coast
Appreciate the help again, somehow managed to be well up despite being deep into Tones and Denzel until they released the news of 2nd overtaking 1st, which made me read the writing on the wall that it was going to be billie. Went super hard on her after that, to the point I wasn't allowed to put anything more on her outright anywhere in the last few days.
Lots of interesting things to take out. Undoubtedly there was a leak last year with Travis Scott/Fisher firming, the top 3 being known theory seemed locked in. I suspected the Tones plunge was due to this, as it was only effecting outright markets. But clearly they've tightened it up again as Mallrat/Flume were this years Travis Scott/Fisher, yet the top 3 market was completely unaffected. The leak last year was an anomaly. I think we underestimate how much dumb money is out there, despite us hitting billie hard her odds didn't really shift that much, all the money had still been going to Tones and BoP for the last few weeks.
What was the deal with Ruel? 3 songs in the top 50? His top song seems to be popular enough that it could be in the 100 on it's own merit but the other two shouldn't be in the top 200, it's clear when looking at the votes coming in on instagram that he has dedicated fan groups spamming votes and advertising to get others to spam votes for him. Should this not come under the Taylor Swift ruling of a campaign giving false results or "trolling the poll"? Where is the line drawn? Could Ed Sheeran fans start pumping him up everywhere to get him in? Disappointing that Vampire Weekend, Alex Lahey etc possibly missed out due to this.
Although there were some handy bets around, for the second year in a row the outright market formed the backbone of my win. With Warm Tunas getting less of a sample size and Sportsbet/BetEasy really tightening up their odds, I'd say this and the top 10 markets will be the only way of making a clear profit from here on in.
Lots of interesting things to take out. Undoubtedly there was a leak last year with Travis Scott/Fisher firming, the top 3 being known theory seemed locked in. I suspected the Tones plunge was due to this, as it was only effecting outright markets. But clearly they've tightened it up again as Mallrat/Flume were this years Travis Scott/Fisher, yet the top 3 market was completely unaffected. The leak last year was an anomaly. I think we underestimate how much dumb money is out there, despite us hitting billie hard her odds didn't really shift that much, all the money had still been going to Tones and BoP for the last few weeks.
What was the deal with Ruel? 3 songs in the top 50? His top song seems to be popular enough that it could be in the 100 on it's own merit but the other two shouldn't be in the top 200, it's clear when looking at the votes coming in on instagram that he has dedicated fan groups spamming votes and advertising to get others to spam votes for him. Should this not come under the Taylor Swift ruling of a campaign giving false results or "trolling the poll"? Where is the line drawn? Could Ed Sheeran fans start pumping him up everywhere to get him in? Disappointing that Vampire Weekend, Alex Lahey etc possibly missed out due to this.
Although there were some handy bets around, for the second year in a row the outright market formed the backbone of my win. With Warm Tunas getting less of a sample size and Sportsbet/BetEasy really tightening up their odds, I'd say this and the top 10 markets will be the only way of making a clear profit from here on in.
