Not into this at all but few mates and Mrs Jug are so I tend to tune in every year and have been getting the strong vibe that old Flume is the Triple J equivalent of C Judd or N Fyfe for the Brownlow. Blokes happy to give him the 3 votes for a 15 possession game. I'll have to have a punt to get through it so what's the best market to have a dabble on him?
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Triple J Hottest 100 - 2020
- Thread starter NotAMagpieBogan
- Start date
- Tagged users None
BPM's predicted vs actual history isn't actually that bad, I have them as generally about right, it's probably the worst of WarmTunas current Top 5, but other than Flume (who is almost always under-predicted) the other 4 are usually not far off, or sometimes up sometimes down.
- Apr 1, 2013
- 2,317
- 4,694
- AFL Club
- West Coast
Not far off haha. Tabtouch had him in the $7 range last time I checked, best odds and can probably get more on there, most places will limit you pretty quickly. Keep an eye on Betfair too.
- Apr 1, 2013
- 2,317
- 4,694
- AFL Club
- West Coast
Cherub would be a great finish. It's nice to be alive in the decade poll is their only big drop from what I can see. That's my hedge which is solid enough now, but a Heat Waves win would be bigger overall. Will probably just hit those 2 a bit from here on in, no value left with SJ and just not convinced that song has a broad enough reach, will just back in that it's being overrepresented but really hard to get a full read on it.
Flume in striking distance but need to remember that Rushing Back was a bit of a commercial hit at the end of last year, with the Vera Blue vocals it was probably in a lot of the Dance Monkey/Bad Guy votes, I don't think The Difference will get that same level jump, although it will do very well.
- Apr 1, 2013
- 2,317
- 4,694
- AFL Club
- West Coast
Apparently Heat Waves entered the top 50 of the aria charts this week. Not sure if that means anything but interesting timing considering it's been out for about 6 months.
For sure, would be an awesome way to close it out. I voted for it but I am actually a little surprised how popular the song is. Right up until the outro it is a pretty small song.
Would be shocked if Flume won it
Rushing back was the summer festival hit, the difference's claim to fame is an apple advert
Rushing back was the summer festival hit, the difference's claim to fame is an apple advert
- Jul 7, 2015
- 5,343
- 10,459
- AFL Club
- Melbourne
- Moderator
- #109
Don't underestimate Spacey Jane. Warm Tunas had them outside the 100 last year but they made it in at 80.
Since then they've gotten a pretty massive following which is reflected in their rise in Spotify numbers over the last 12 months.
Plus they won the album poll.
I actually think they're a reasonable favourite to win it.
- Thread starter
- #110
SB have added a new ‘Without Booster Seat/Heat Waves’ market. I don’t mind WAP at $8, I can see climbing a lot.
- Moderator
- #111
Nice. I just took the $12 about Mallrat. Don't expect that to last too long.
She has immediate top 3 finishing form ('Charlie' last year) and the only ones currently above 'Rockstar' on WT are:
- Smith St Band (over-represented online)
- G Flip (battling for similar position tbh but may have votes split)
- Tame Impala (will have votes split between many tracks)
- Flume (biggest danger)
- Ball Park Music (over-represented online)
I'm not in the market of betting big yet at this early stage but I've thrown a $20 down on Mallrat at 12s, too good to pass up.
- Thread starter
- #112
Seems as though SB have mistaken Therefore I Am for Everything I Wanted which was released last year. They’ve got Everything I Wanted at $15 for overall, plus I was hoping to check out Therefore I Am for the ‘without BS/HW’ market, I feel I could be a dark horse to rise to the top 5 as well. Billie’s poppier songs have always better than their WT positions (When The Party’s Over finished in the top 10 after being predicted to land in the 40s).
Hilltop Hoods with I’m Good is currently sitting at $31 as well. It’s probably a bigger long shot imo compared to Billie and WAP, but we know how perennially popular they are.
Hilltop Hoods with I’m Good is currently sitting at $31 as well. It’s probably a bigger long shot imo compared to Billie and WAP, but we know how perennially popular they are.
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Schulzenfest
TheBrownDog
They're allowed to have ads. As long as it's not like 'win a free Big Mac if you vote for Booster Seat' or something incentive based like that it's fine.
I've seen ads telling me to vote for House Arrest on my feed, it's not unusual.
Yeah I guess the voter sign up from an ad without an incentive is minimal. But nonetheless they are very keen to place well in the countdown it seems.
Top 3 and top 10 up on betfair, before any other bookie. No money matched yet, but is it too far fetched to think this is the bookies trying to get a handle on what the proper odds should be from the ‘pros’, before they release their own odds?
On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
- 50,055
- 40,653
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Calgary Flames, Man Utd
Doubt there will be sufficient liquidity in those markets for any price discovery
- Apr 1, 2013
- 2,317
- 4,694
- AFL Club
- West Coast
Yeah nothing appealing in the Betfair markets yet, people keeping their powder dry at this stage. Have requested top 10 markets but only heard back from tabtouch, who said mid-January. Sportsbet would usually have them out by now but not sure of the merger with BetEasy has impacted that? BetEasy didn't put out new markets until the New Year.
Heat Waves very slowly reeling in Booster Seat. Hardly any data this year though, votes are trickling in but the trend has definitely moved away from posting their votes online. Booster Seat has slowed down clearly though since the flurry of votes in the first two or three days.
Heat Waves very slowly reeling in Booster Seat. Hardly any data this year though, votes are trickling in but the trend has definitely moved away from posting their votes online. Booster Seat has slowed down clearly though since the flurry of votes in the first two or three days.
Yeah beteasy has been of no value for years with the exotic markets, unfortunately they may be influencing Sportsbet
On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
- Thread starter
- #121
Tied for the lead at the moment, Booster Seat has definitely slowed down.
I’d like a ‘Song to not finish inside the 100’ like they had for the Decade H100. Phoebe Bridgers, Rina Sawayama, and Architects are currently top 30 but I wouldn’t be surprised to see each of them miss out on the the day. Phoebe Bridgers was never given regular play on Triple J and is far more of a Double J act (even though she’s super popular around the world atm). Rina Sawayama is big with the internet pop crowd, and even though she got solid play, I don’t know how truly strong her fan base is here, I feel it’d be over represented online. Architects, we know metals over representation for WT.
I’d like a ‘Song to not finish inside the 100’ like they had for the Decade H100. Phoebe Bridgers, Rina Sawayama, and Architects are currently top 30 but I wouldn’t be surprised to see each of them miss out on the the day. Phoebe Bridgers was never given regular play on Triple J and is far more of a Double J act (even though she’s super popular around the world atm). Rina Sawayama is big with the internet pop crowd, and even though she got solid play, I don’t know how truly strong her fan base is here, I feel it’d be over represented online. Architects, we know metals over representation for WT.
- Apr 1, 2013
- 2,317
- 4,694
- AFL Club
- West Coast
Really interesting update from warm tunas now, you can now curate it to see the count from different data sources, ie What the count would look like just from instagram dms. If you curate it to just Twitter, Rina Sawayama is 1st and Phoebe Bridgers 3rd.
Frankth3tank
Rookie
- Jan 20, 2020
- 36
- 36
- AFL Club
- Fremantle
Very interesting! Biggest outlier looking at the data by source is SJ being 60%+ in front of nearest rival from Instagram DMs. Makes me think SJ is being way over represented overall. When combined with the huge slide we’ve seen from the early lead, I’m going an early call and saying with confidence that SJ doesn’t win. May not make top 3.
- Moderator
- #124
By keeping the sources to just Insta stories and posts I think you get the best idea of what the final count will look like, from a more casual POV. For instance, Booster Seat sliding to #6, WAP climbing to #14, Kyoto sliding to #78. The ones that care – and by design, are more likely to vote for “outsiders” – are the ones that submit to Reddit / Twitter et al.
Random musing but does anyone remember the bloke who tried to rig this on here a few years ago? Thought he could back a roughie and make up a few dozen new emails to vote with to get his pick into the money. Good times
