Triple J Hottest 100 2024 - Betting Thread.

[RedmanWasHere]

For the betting and musically minded, have at this.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Was looking for Chappelle Roan on SB and other agencies for a month when song was released but couldn’t find it, then when I checked back later on Lads she was favorite…..

SB hasn’t had a market for months

 

[NotAMagpieBogan]

I got on Kendrick at $9 on Pointsbet a couple of months ago, its now into $1.83 on SB.

I think its between Not Like Us, and Good Luck Babe, both feel like the songs that transcended music, but i think Not Like Us has its nose in front. I think Not Like Us has a more varied voter base, guys and girls, whereas Good Luck Babes voter base is mainly girls and gays. Why saw last year with Troye Sivan, a song with a similar voter base drop quite a bit compared to expectation, I think for the same reason.

Billie Eilish is definite threat though with Birds of a Feather and Lunch, and of course Royel Otis LAV will be top 5 at least.

 

[ash_1050]

It's gotta be Not Like Us*

*I'm 35 and don't know what the kids listen to these days.

 

[pacemaker]

Can someone share how the voting takes place for example do triple J viewers log on and vote ect??

Am I wrong to say that those social media teens who made Chappelle Roan with that babe song will not have the nerve to vote that song number 1. I went to watch on YouTube and can not believe what is so good about it. 643k likes in 8 months, something like 62m views.

Anyone know the age/gender/location demographic of those who vote for these. That song is not number 1 in my eyes but on the numbers of views ect "the data" it is. Don't think that age group get on and vote for this though.

 

[badusername]

Can someone share how the voting takes place for example do triple J viewers log on and vote ect??

Am I wrong to say that those social media teens who made Chappelle Roan with that babe song will not have the nerve to vote that song number 1. I went to watch on YouTube and can not believe what is so good about it. 643k likes in 8 months, something like 62m views.

Anyone know the age/gender/location demographic of those who vote for these. That song is not number 1 in my eyes but on the numbers of views ect "the data" it is. Don't think that age group get on and vote for this though.

This article pretty much has everything you need to know.

It's an online voting system via their site/app. Listeners can pick 10 songs (no order preference is given) and that's it. Pretty sure you can vote more than once and bots have been used before (they had to declare Taylor Swift was ineligible one year).

This isn't the sort of thing I'd bet on, but I'd be pretty surprised in Not Like Us didn't win. Game changer of a song. (Although much like ash_1050 I am 34 and have no idea what teens are listening to).

 

[pacemaker]

I'll probably only throw a 10er on. Seems like something the corrupt gambling world could rig if done correctly.

 

[badusername]

I'll probably only throw a 10er on. Seems like something the corrupt gambling world could rig if done correctly.

This actually happened in the Music Victoria awards last month. Read more here.

I used to have the embargoed (AKA before they were announced) results of the ARIAs, Logies, reality shows, etc, which you can bet on. Wasn't worth losing my job over to bet on, but pretty easy to share this information to others if you felt so inclined.

One of the reasons I don't bet on novelty marketings – 1,000s of people (including, most likely, bookmakers) will know the results beforehand.

 

[ferrisb]

Pretty sure you can vote more than once and bots have been used before (they had to declare Taylor Swift was ineligible one year).

I think bots were a concern, but I recall triple J was just as worried about losing credibility if Taylor Swift won.

I went to watch the Chappell Roan song on YouTube and can not believe what is so good about it. 643k likes in 8 months, something like 62m views.

I hate pop music and I reckon Good Luck, Babe is an absolute cracker.

 

[NotAMagpieBogan]

Probably worth keeping Dom Dolla in mind, neither of singles were as big his couple last year, but after he's the type of act who will poll consistently no matter the song really, same as Spacey Jane. Off the back of his tour as well, which it feels like all of the common folk went to.

 

[notarobot]

Betfair not opening up bets this year? With most serious punters banned from the usual sites I think odds are a bit whack. Like Kendrick surely hasn't got a chance in this era of triple J. The song would make a decent number one but the demographics at the station there now have changed too much.

 

[freo_leo29]

I got on Kendrick at $9 on Pointsbet a couple of months ago, its now into $1.83 on SB.

I think its between Not Like Us, and Good Luck Babe, both feel like the songs that transcended music, but i think Not Like Us has its nose in front. I think Not Like Us has a more varied voter base, guys and girls, whereas Good Luck Babes voter base is mainly girls and gays. Why saw last year with Troye Sivan, a song with a similar voter base drop quite a bit compared to expectation, I think for the same reason.

Billie Eilish is definite threat though with Birds of a Feather and Lunch, and of course Royel Otis LAV will be top 5 at least.

Kendrick dropped an album late which probably cannibalises some of his votes although its hard to leave Not Like Us off the top 10


I'd be stunned if something other than GLB or NLU win though

 

[JT_the_Man]

Sportsbet put up a market for Charli XCX to beat G Flip’s record for most songs in the countdown (would need 8) - Saw a screenshot of no at $4, has since been backed into $2.85 but I tend to think she’ll actually pull it off so am more interested in seeing if there is a drift on yes. Warm Tunas has released their top 50 and they currently have 7 Charli songs in the top 50.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Anyone know what the longest odds on Chappell Roan winning were?

Still pissed off about it.

 

[NotAMagpieBogan]

Sportsbet put up a market for Charli XCX to beat G Flip’s record for most songs in the countdown (would need 8) - Saw a screenshot of no at $4, has since been backed into $2.85 but I tend to think she’ll actually pull it off so am more interested in seeing if there is a drift on yes. Warm Tunas has released their top 50 and they currently have 7 Charli songs in the top 50.

Obviously this year is different, but Charli has always completely underperformed in the count. I'd be willing to say she doesn't beat it, but again, this year is completely different.

Edit: I'm still leaning towards Kendrick for the win, he's out to $5 on SB again. We saw how huge the drop off was for artists last year from LGBT+ bases, with Troye Sivan dropping from WTs lead, and Boygenius dropping from WTs 2nd to 30th.

Chappell has had a much larger year than those two, but I still think she's being overrepresented atm.

Personally my guess at this stage would be Not Like Us, Birds of a Feather, MOTDF, Good Luck Babe.

Hoping for a top 10 and 5 market sooner rather than later, even though SB odds for anyting in those has been dogshit recently.

 

[freo_leo29]

Obviously this year is different, but Charli has always completely underperformed in the count. I'd be willing to say she doesn't beat it, but again, this year is completely different.

Edit: I'm still leaning towards Kendrick for the win, he's out to $5 on SB again. We saw how huge the drop off was for artists last year from LGBT+ bases, with Troye Sivan dropping from WTs lead, and Boygenius dropping from WTs 2nd to 30th.

Chappell has had a much larger year than those two, but I still think she's being overrepresented atm.

Personally my guess at this stage would be Not Like Us, Birds of a Feather, MOTDF, Good Luck Babe.

Hoping for a top 10 and 5 market sooner rather than later, even though SB odds for anyting in those has been dogshit recently.

Chappells song cleared the LGBT crowd almost instantly, it went full mainstream


It's not even close to a Troye sivan situation


It's still not a certainty because Billie notoriously overpolls and Kendrick had a massive year

 

[JT_the_Man]

Obviously this year is different, but Charli has always completely underperformed in the count. I'd be willing to say she doesn't beat it, but again, this year is completely different.

Edit: I'm still leaning towards Kendrick for the win, he's out to $5 on SB again. We saw how huge the drop off was for artists last year from LGBT+ bases, with Troye Sivan dropping from WTs lead, and Boygenius dropping from WTs 2nd to 30th.

Chappell has had a much larger year than those two, but I still think she's being overrepresented atm.

Personally my guess at this stage would be Not Like Us, Birds of a Feather, MOTDF, Good Luck Babe.

Hoping for a top 10 and 5 market sooner rather than later, even though SB odds for anyting in those has been dogshit recently.

Fwiw, no at $4 is still something I probably would’ve jumped on. 8 songs is a lot.

Not sure on the order yet but those 4 songs you’ve listed plus Guess is the most likely top 5 imo.