Triple J hottest 100 of 2012 Prediction thread.

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Pretty happy with how my tipping system worked this year. A bit of a summary here, with stats chosen deliberately to make me look good. Thanks KBUCK for starting up the thread.

Thewitness tipped:
83 out of the 100 (should have been 84 as a found a fault in my spreadsheet this morning that would have meant Jay-Z and Kanye - fellows in Paris would have been tipped for #79, but oh well my fault)

50 tipped within 10 places of their correct position.

Of the top 75 placed songs only didn’t tip 2 (Worst miss: #62 Stonefield and #75 Example)

All of top 16 placed songs tipped within 10 places.
All of top 21 placed songs tipped within 15 places.
5 Exactly correct

Kbuck tipped:
68 out of 100
20 within 10 places
Missed 12 of the top 75 (Worst miss: #32 Noah & The Whale)
7 of top 16 within 10 places
12 of top 21 within 15 places
1 exactly correct

Drummosolo tipped:
76 out of 100
32 within 10 places
Missed 7 of top 75 (worst miss: #45 The Kooks)
13 of top 16 within 10 places
18 of top 21 within 15 places
2 exactly correct

Benji tipped:
75 out of 100
39 within 10 places
Missed 8 of top 75 (worst miss: #32 Noah & The Whale)
15 of top 16 within 10 places
20 of top 21 within 15 places
4 exactly correct
 
My hangover is murdering me. Well done to the witness, who proved that cold, hard stats will usually win over human judgement. Back with more Hottest 100 thoughts a bit later!
 
I hardly even bother listening to the Hottest 100 anymore, looking at that list I didn't miss anything. It really has gone to shit the last few years.

Gotye's song would have been lucky to make the top 20 back in the nineties.

Don't bother posting in the Triple J Hottest 100 prediction thread then if you hardly bother to listen to it. One of those people that are too cool to listen to it nowadays?

Ah yes... I see... you must be, Gotye lucky to make top 20 ahead of any of the top 20 from the 90's.

1994. No 9. Tom Jones – If I Only Knew

Just an example.

I only heard the Gotye song 2 weeks ago as living in London I had not heard it, but heard about it back home. Listened to it and loved it. Didn't vote for it, and wasn't privy to the reception it got back home, but come on, it's a great song and if it got great commercial success back home, then good on him!
 
Distinct lack of electric guitar through the countdown somewhat tempered by Lonely Boy making #2. Is rock out of favour with the average JJJ listener?

Rock has been out of favour with the J's for years now, pretty much ever since Kingsmill took over. They've gradually shifted away from it and now it's mainly folk, singer/songwriter, aussie hip-hop and dance for hipsters.

Very happy with the 90-100 area as I got to hear Jay Z/Kanye, Foo Fighters and The Strokes in a row, plus City & Colour too.

Rope was in earlier than I expected and Otis was too. No "Taken for a Fool" surprised me somewhat, but not as much as NO charting by Eskimo Joe, Calling All Cars, The Living End, Cage the Elephant who I all thought were a lock.
 
just wanted to say great work by thewitness krock and others for their efforts! hope to see another forum this time next year!

I have a bet with a mate every year, usually on one song but we expanded to top 10 this year. despite losing i picked 8 of the top 13 songs. Bali Party ended up costing me, I had it in my top 10 without seeing some posts about how unpopular it actually was. guess i was sucked in by the constant rehashing on channel v at the gym!
 
Very suprised Nero only had promises in there. Thought they were one of the biggest bands of the year and that there other song would of received more love.
 
And back, feeling a bit more refreshed!

Firstly, fasterlouder did a list of the most played songs of 2011 on JJJ, found at http://www.fasterlouder.com.au/news/local/31299/The-real-Hottest-100. Would have been INCREDIBLY handy to nail a few songs I was borderline on (goddamn you New Navy), and a few I wasn't expecting (Stonewater, the Kills, Redcoats). Good read either way - an interesting stat would be plays per day or plays per week, to eliminate time as a factor.

As for the countdown itself...I think Triple J, and it's audience, are currently going through a generational change. As noted, rock is out, but by god was rock ESPECIALLY out this year. No Living End was the big one - the first time in 13 years they've had an album eligible for voting, and not made the top 100. Amazing. Eskimo Joe was another, but I figured they would be borderline anyway. No Getaway Plan either, but the hard rockers got Redcoats instead, so I guess it balances.

As far as other leave-outs go, I think I'm just giving up on Cut Copy getting credit from Triple J listeners. Staggering that Need You Now missed the 100 entirely - especially considering they're arguably the best band in the world doing synthy indie pop, which is currently so in vogue.

Beyond that, pretty average countdown I thought. While I don't dislike all of these artists or songs, can't help but feel that Matt Corby, Lana Del Rey, San Cisco, and even Foster the People (to an extent) will age pretty quickly. Also usually like Aussie Hip-Hop but can't stand 360. Whether this is just me getting old and whingy, or just an off year remains to be seen!

Also, if anyone was following my theory of "use the albums of the year to guide you with artists to pick" would have been richly rewarded again, with only Cut Copy's Zonoscope, at 20, not having any song chart.

So I suppose all that's left now is for Kingsmill (or whoever is in charge now) to point 101-200. Anyone keen for Round 2? :D
 
I managed 87/100 with quite a few leftfield songs I had never heard.

Was actually suprised by the solid effort of M83.
 
Distinct lack of electric guitar through the countdown somewhat tempered by Lonely Boy making #2. Is rock out of favour with the average JJJ listener?

yeah, sadly has been for a long time. Even stuff like Mastodon that gets played pretty heavily on the station didn't get a spot in the countdown.
 
And back, feeling a bit more refreshed!

Firstly, fasterlouder did a list of the most played songs of 2011 on JJJ, found at http://www.fasterlouder.com.au/news/local/31299/The-real-Hottest-100. Would have been INCREDIBLY handy to nail a few songs I was borderline on (goddamn you New Navy), and a few I wasn't expecting (Stonewater, the Kills, Redcoats). Good read either way - an interesting stat would be plays per day or plays per week, to eliminate time as a factor.

As for the countdown itself...I think Triple J, and it's audience, are currently going through a generational change. As noted, rock is out, but by god was rock ESPECIALLY out this year. No Living End was the big one - the first time in 13 years they've had an album eligible for voting, and not made the top 100. Amazing. Eskimo Joe was another, but I figured they would be borderline anyway. No Getaway Plan either, but the hard rockers got Redcoats instead, so I guess it balances.

As far as other leave-outs go, I think I'm just giving up on Cut Copy getting credit from Triple J listeners. Staggering that Need You Now missed the 100 entirely - especially considering they're arguably the best band in the world doing synthy indie pop, which is currently so in vogue.

Beyond that, pretty average countdown I thought. While I don't dislike all of these artists or songs, can't help but feel that Matt Corby, Lana Del Rey, San Cisco, and even Foster the People (to an extent) will age pretty quickly. Also usually like Aussie Hip-Hop but can't stand 360. Whether this is just me getting old and whingy, or just an off year remains to be seen!

Also, if anyone was following my theory of "use the albums of the year to guide you with artists to pick" would have been richly rewarded again, with only Cut Copy's Zonoscope, at 20, not having any song chart.

So I suppose all that's left now is for Kingsmill (or whoever is in charge now) to point 101-200. Anyone keen for Round 2? :D

Challenge accepted (sort of).

Foo Fighters - These Days
Foo Fighters - Bridge Burning
Jay Z & Kanye West - No Church in the Wild
Blink 182 - Up All Night
Red Hot Chili Peppers - The Adventures of Raindance Maggie
Mastodon - Curl of the Burl
Chiddy Bang - Ray Charles
The Living End - The Ending is Just the Beginning Repeating
The Living End - Song for the Lonely
The Getaway Plan - The Reckoning
Eskimo Joe - Love is a Drug
Cage the Elephant - Shake Me Down
Calling All Cars - Reptile
Frenzal Rhomb - Knuckleheads
The Vines - Gimme Love
Regurgitator - One Day
The Strokes - Taken for a Fool
Cut Copy - Need You Now

All very likely in the 101-200 bracket. cba doing a whole list tho. Or ordering them :p
 

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Challenge accepted (sort of).

Foo Fighters - These Days
Foo Fighters - Bridge Burning
Jay Z & Kanye West - No Church in the Wild
Blink 182 - Up All Night
Red Hot Chili Peppers - The Adventures of Raindance Maggie
Mastodon - Curl of the Burl
Chiddy Bang - Ray Charles
The Living End - The Ending is Just the Beginning Repeating
The Living End - Song for the Lonely
The Getaway Plan - The Reckoning
Eskimo Joe - Love is a Drug
Cage the Elephant - Shake Me Down
Calling All Cars - Reptile
Frenzal Rhomb - Knuckleheads
The Vines - Gimme Love
Regurgitator - One Day
The Strokes - Taken for a Fool
Cut Copy - Need You Now

All very likely in the 101-200 bracket. cba doing a whole list tho. Or ordering them :p

Haha, a fair call! I'll add to this.

The Jezabels - Trycolour
The Jezabels - Rosebud
Mantra - Got It Wrong
Nero - Me and You
Gotye - State of the Art
The Wombats - Anti-D
Josh Pyke - No-One Wants a Lover
Josh Pyke - The World Is A Picture
Jay-Z & Kanye West - Why I Love You
SBTRKT - Pharoahs
Example - Stay Awake
Pnau - Solid Ground
Jebediah - Control
Kasabian - Days Are Forgotten
Austra - Lose It
Art vs Science - With Thoughts
Friendly Fires - Hawaiian Air
The Grates - Sweet Dreams
James Blake - Limit to Your Love
Justice - Audio, Video, Disco
Justice - Civilisation
The Panics - Majesty
Strange Talk - Eskimo Boy
Art vs Science - Harder, Better, Faster, Stronger (Like A Version)
 
Even stuff like Mastodon that gets played pretty heavily on the station didn't get a spot in the countdown.

I think the failing of my list best highlights this point. Amount played doesn't seem to really impact the hottest 100. People are simply just going to vote for whatever they like. I'll be adopting a different tactic this year. Seems like an easy tactic is to focus on good albums.
 
Calvin Harris - Feel So Close 11th
Sparkadia - China 56th
Strokes, The - Under Cover Of Darkness 41st
Illy - Cigarettes 35th
Joelistics - Days Didn't make it
Gotye - Somebody That I Used To Know {Ft. Kimbra} 1st
Grouplove - Tongue Tied 16th
San Cisco - Awkward 7th
Foster The People - Houdini 40th
Arctic Monkeys - Suck It And See Didn't make it

Where they cam in bold
 
Haha, a fair call! I'll add to this.

The Jezabels - Trycolour
The Jezabels - Rosebud
Mantra - Got It Wrong
Nero - Me and You
Gotye - State of the Art
The Wombats - Anti-D
Josh Pyke - No-One Wants a Lover
Josh Pyke - The World Is A Picture
Jay-Z & Kanye West - Why I Love You
SBTRKT - Pharoahs
Example - Stay Awake
Pnau - Solid Ground
Jebediah - Control
Kasabian - Days Are Forgotten
Austra - Lose It
Art vs Science - With Thoughts
Friendly Fires - Hawaiian Air
The Grates - Sweet Dreams
James Blake - Limit to Your Love
Justice - Audio, Video, Disco
Justice - Civilisation
The Panics - Majesty
Strange Talk - Eskimo Boy
Art vs Science - Harder, Better, Faster, Stronger (Like A Version)

Sad thing is five years ago pretty much all the songs I listed would've made the H100. :(
 
Haha, a fair call! I'll add to this.

The Jezabels - Trycolour
The Jezabels - Rosebud
Mantra - Got It Wrong
Nero - Me and You
Gotye - State of the Art
The Wombats - Anti-D
Josh Pyke - No-One Wants a Lover
Josh Pyke - The World Is A Picture
Jay-Z & Kanye West - Why I Love You
SBTRKT - Pharoahs
Example - Stay Awake
Pnau - Solid Ground
Jebediah - Control
Kasabian - Days Are Forgotten
Austra - Lose It
Art vs Science - With Thoughts
Friendly Fires - Hawaiian Air
The Grates - Sweet Dreams
James Blake - Limit to Your Love
Justice - Audio, Video, Disco
Justice - Civilisation
The Panics - Majesty
Strange Talk - Eskimo Boy
Art vs Science - Harder, Better, Faster, Stronger (Like A Version)

I accept the challenge! On it. Now 101-200 really is a challenge. :confused:
Of those not already mentioned, here are some more that I think might fall into 101-200 - some I can't believe weren't in 1-100:
Big Scary - Gladiator
Band of Skulls - The devil takes cares of his own
Art v Science - Higher
Ball Park Music - Rich people are stupid
Feist - How come you never go there?
Cold War Kids - Bulldozer
Adalita - The Repairer
Herd- Sum of it all
Abbe May - Taurus Chorus
bluejuice - Shock
City and Colour - Natural Disaster
Fleet Foxes - Lorelai

Isn't Kingsmill OS for the next few months? Hopefully someone at Triple J will pick up the slack and release 101-200 for us.
 
Isn't Kingsmill OS for the next few months?

Lets hope so. That guy is a first class nob head.

I think the biggest shocks this year were the lack of:

Nero - me and you
Austra - lose it
Kasabian - Days are forgotten
 
These stats are going to be pretty unreliable but here is what would be 101-200 from my system.
101Example - Stay Awake
102Chiddy Bang - Ray Charles
103Cut Copy - Need You Now
104PJ Harvey - The Words That Maketh Murder
105Aston Shuffle, The - Start Again
106Martin Solveig - Ready 2 Go {Ft. Kele}
107TV On The Radio - Will Do
108James Blake - Limit To Your Love
109Josh Pyke - No One Wants A Lover
110Kasabian - Days Are Forgotten
111Radiohead - Codex
112Art Vs Science - With Thoughts
113Eskimo Joe - Love Is A Drug
114Friendly Fires - Hawaiian Air
115Big Scary - Gladiator
116Tim & Jean - I Can Show You
117Ellesquire - On The Prowl
118Austra - Lose It
119SBTRKT - Pharaohs {Ft. Roses Gabor}
120Tyler, The Creator - Yonkers
121Mastodon - Curl Of The Burl
122Living End, The - The Ending Is Just The Beginning Repeating
123Red Hot Chili Peppers - The Adventures Of Raindance Maggie
124Strokes, The - Taken For A Fool
125Florence & The Machine - Only If For A Night
126Middle East, The - Land Of The Bloody Unknown
127City And Colour - Little Hell
128Justice - Audio, Video, Disco
129Aston Shuffle, The - Won't Get Lost
130Getaway Plan, The - The Reckoning
131Rapture, The - How Deep Is Your Love
132Stanton Warriors - Get Up {Ft. Hollywood Holt/Ruby Goe}
133Jens Lekman - An Argument With Myself
134Horrors, The - Still Life
135tUnE-yArDs - Bizness
136Foo Fighters - White Limo
137Jezabels, The - Trycolour
138Nero - Me & You
139Papa Vs Pretty - One Of The Animals
140Rise Against - Help Is On The Way
141Jay-Z & Kanye West - No Church In The Wild {Ft. Frank Ocean}
142Naked And Famous, The - All Of This
143Nero - Guilt
144Calling All Cars - Reptile
145Bleeding Knees Club - Teenage Girls
146Digitalism - 2 Hearts
147Loon Lake - Bad To Me
148Last Dinosaurs - Zoom
149Strange Talk - Eskimo Boy
150SBTRKT - Hold On {Ft. Sampha}
151Chase & Status - Blind Faith {Ft. Liam Bailey}
152Andy Bull - Everybody Wants To Rule The World {Like A Version}
153Cage The Elephant - Shake Me Down
154Abbe May - Design Desire
155Grates, The - Sweet Dreams
156Jinja Safari - Hiccups
157Mutemath - Blood Pressure
158City And Colour - The Grand Optimist
159Alpine - Villages
160Digitalism - Circles
161Gypsy & The Cat - Parallel Universe
162Jinja Safari - Mermaids
163Yuksek - Always On The Run
164Rufus - Paris Collides
165Art Vs Science - Higher
166Blink-182 - Up All Night
167Arctic Monkeys - The Hellcat Spangled Shalalala
168Foster The People - Waste
169Gotye - Save Me
170Crystal Fighters - At Home
171British India - March Into The Ocean
172ShockOne - Crucify Me {Ft. Phetsta}
173Noah And The Whale - Waiting For My Chance To Come
174Daniele Luppi/Danger Mouse - Two Against One {Ft. Jack White}
175Tame Impala - Why Won't You Make Up Your Mind {Erol Alkan Remix}
176Vaccines, The - If You Wanna
177Roots Manuva - Here We Go Again {Ft. Spikey Tee}
178CSS - Hits Me Like A Rock {Ft. Bobby Gillespie}
179Does It Offend You Yeah? - Pull Out My Insides
180Feist - How Come You Never Go There
181Frenzal Rhomb - Knuckleheads
182Lupe Fiasco - Words I Never Said {Ft. Skylar Grey}
183Papa Vs Pretty - Darkest Way
184Papa Vs Pretty - Honey
185Pnau - Solid Ground
186SebastiAn - Embody
187Unknown Mortal Orchestra - Ffunny Ffriends
188Yuksek - On A Train
189St Vincent - Cruel
190Antlers, The - I Don't Want Love
191avicii - levels
192Elbow - Lippy Kids
193Cults - Go Outside
194Decemberists, The - This Is Why We Fight
195Gotye - State Of The Art
196Lanie Lane - Ain't Hungry
197King Cannons - Teenage Dreams
198Middle East, The - Hunger Song
199Rise Against - Make It Stop (September's Children)
200Spank Rock - Car Song {Ft. Santigold}
 
I should probably get out a bit more but I've put together my predictions for 101-200 - up to 150 wasn't as tricky as I thought, but needed some red wine to complete 151-200. I actually did this before thewitness' list appeared and I'd be going with that one but I've decided not to spend any more time on mine.

101 Trycolour Jezabels
102 Need you now Cut Copy
103 The ending is just the beginning repeating Living End
104 Me and you Nero
105 Sweet dreams Grates
106 Limit to your love James Blake
107 Hawaiian air Friendly Fires
108 Gladiator Big Scary
109 With thoughts Art vs Science
110 Audio, video, disco Justice
111 On the prowl Ellesquire
112 Stay awake Example
113 Start again Aston Shuffle
114 Days are forgotten Kasabian
115 Ray Charles Chiddy Bang
116 Lose it Austra
117 Will do TV on the Radio
118 Shake me down Cage the Elephant
119 The devil takes care of his own Band of Skulls
120 No-one wants a lover Josh Pyke
121 Codex Radiohead
122 I can show you Tim and Jean
123 Ready to go Martin Solveig (feat. Kele)
124 Curl of the burl Mastodon
125 The reckoning The Getaway Plan
126 Rich people are stupid Ball Park Music
127 Rosebud Jezabels
128 How come you never go there? Feist
129 Sure as hell not Jesus Cosmo Jarvis
130 Chimera Snakadaktal
131 Reptile Calling All Cars
132 Rich kid blues Lykke Li
133 Suck it and see Arctic Monkeys
134 Darkest way Papa vs Pretty
135 Harder, better, faster, stronger (Like a Version) Art vs Science
136 Bulldozer Cold War Kids
137 No church in the wild Jay-Z and Kanye West
138 One day Regurgitator
139 Solid ground P'nau
140 Natural disaster City and Colour
141 An argument with myself Jens Lekman
142 The Ship Song Lisa Mitchell
143 Beatiful trash Lanu (feat. Megan Washington)
144 The words that maketh murder PJ Harvey
145 Anti-D Wombats
146 Bad to me Loon Lake
147 Knuckleheads Frenzal Rhomb
148 Pharoahs SBTRKT
149 Black treacle Arctic Monkeys
150 Lorelai Fleet Foxes
151 That's what you get for falling in love with a cowboy Lanie Lane
152 These days Foo Fighters
153 Holding on to black metal My Morning Jacket
154 Blink and you'll miss a revolution Cut Copy
155 The sum of it all Herd
156 The repairer Adalita
157 Days Joelistics
158 Higher Art vs Science
159 Got it wrong Mantra
160 Endless road Panics
161 Live these days tonight Foo Fighters
162 Always looking Dum Dum Girls
163 The adventures of raindance Maggie Red Hot Chilli Peppers
164 Rely on me Seeker Lover Keeper
165 Taurus chorus Abbe May
166 All of this Naked and Famous
167 Hate crime Austra
168 Everybody wants to rule the world (Like a Version) Andy Bull
169 Velociraptor! Kasabian
170 In the springtime Velociraptor
171 How deep is your love Rapture
172 Somebody that I used to know (Like a Version) Eskimo Joe
173 What did I do? Kele ft. Lucy Taylor
174 Shuffle Bombay Bicycle Club
175 Love is a drug Eskimo Joe
176 Streamers Brous
177 When my baby smiles at me I go to rehab Frenzal Rhomb
178 Tapioca New Navy
179 Mix tape Big Scary
180 In colour Hunting Grounds
181 Hiccups Jinja Safari
182 Up all night Blink-182
183 Bridge burning Foo Fighters
184 State of the art Gotye
185 Civilisation Justice
186 Bleeders The Trouble With Templeton
187 Underlying message Busby Marou
188 Second chance Peter, Bjorn and John
189 Catastrophe! Julia Stone
190 Why I love you Jay-Z and Kanye West
191 Levels avicii
192 Control Jebediah
193 No more words Anna Calvi
194 Shock bluejuice
195 Conquistador Papa vs Pretty
196 Switchblade smiles Kasabian
197 Air guitar Drapht
198 I wrote the book Beth Ditto
199 Strange talk Eskimo Boy
200 Don't play no game that I can't win Beastie Boys
 

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