Triple J hottest 100 of 2012 Prediction thread.

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Being a boring Saturday arvo, I had a look at songs that charted under or over the Witness prediction lists of previous years, and copied them all down for reference.


Songs that charted 10+ over predictions 2009
7 Lisa Mitchell - Coin Laundry 29
8 Lily Allen - Not Fair 21
12 Dizzee Rascal & Armand Van Helden - Bonkers 31
16 Gossip, The - Heavy Cross 99
23 Bloody Beetroots, The - Warp 1.9 39
24 Flight Of The Conchords - Carol Brown 41
26 Metric - Help I'm Alive 92
27 La Roux - In For The Kill 65
29 Sarah Blasko - All I Want 57
34 Little Birdy - Brother 54
35 Muse - Resistance 45
37 Hilltop Hoods - Still Standing x
38 Passion Pit - Little Secrets 64
39 John Butler Trio - One Way Road 89
40 Angus And Julia Stone - And The Boys 50
43 Bloody Beetroots, The - Awesome (Ft. Cool Kids) x
45 Florence & The Machine - Drumming Song 96
49 Powderfinger - All Of The Dreamers x
50 Sia - Buttons {CSS Remix} x
53 Miike Snow - Animal 33
55 Franz Ferdinand - No You Girls 25
56 XX, The - Islands x
58 Temper Trap, The - Love Lost x
59 Calvin Harris - I'm Not Alone 47
60 Lily Allen - 22 x
66 Illy - Pictures x
67 Washington - Cement x
71 Bertie Blackman - Byrds Of Prey 94
73 MSTRKRFT - Heartbreaker x
75 Wolfmother - New Moon Rising x
77 Jet - She's A Genius x
80 Dizzee Rascal & Calvin Harris - Holiday x
81 Mumford & Sons - The Cave x
82 Miami Horror - Sometimes x
86 Flight Of The Conchords - Too Many Dicks x

Songs that charted 10 or more spots lower than predicted 2009

36 Weezer - (If You're Wondering If I Want You To) I Want You To 19
53 Miike Snow - Animal 33
55 Franz Ferdinand - No You Girls 25
59 Calvin Harris - I'm Not Alone 47
61 Grizzly Bear - Two Weeks 13
64 Middle East, The - Blood 17
68 Prodigy, The - Omen 27
70 Animal Collective - My Girls 7
88 NOFX - Creeping Out Sara 51
91 Manchester Orchestra - I've Got Friends 49
92 Friendly Fires - Skeleton Boy 48
93 Bertie Blackman - Thump 60
95 Silversun Pickups - Panic Switch 53

Songs that charted 10+ over predictions 2010

5 Boy & Bear - Fall At Your Feet 26
10 Mark Ronson & The Business Intl - Somebody To Love Me {Ft. Boy George & Andrew Wyatt} 20
12 Drapht - Rapunzel 33
15 Duck Sauce - Barbara Streisand 46
23 Bliss N Eso - Addicted 37
24 Sparkadia - Talking Like I'm Falling Down Stairs 51
25 Gotye - Eyes Wide Open 55
27 Florence & The Machine/Dizzee Rascal - You've Got The Dirtee Love {Live} 50
29 Illy - It Can Wait {Ft. Owl Eyes} 99
35 Mark Ronson & The Business Intl - The Bike Song {Ft. Kyle Falconer & Spank Rock} 61
37 Gorillaz - Doncamatic {Ft. Daley} 58
41 Bliss N Eso - Down By The River x
45 Boy & Bear - Rabbit Song x
47 Birds Of Tokyo - Wild At Heart 78
53 Bliss N Eso - Reflections x
54 Miami Horror - Holidays {Ft. Alan Palomo} x
56 Sia - Bring Night x
57 Example - Kickstarts x
59 Washington - Rich Kids 98
60 Children Collide - My Eagle 96
62 Angus And Julia Stone - Hold On x
64 Gypsy & The Cat - Jona Vark x
66 Cold War Kids - Audience 86
67 Vampire Weekend - Holiday x
75 Hungry Kids Of Hungary - Coming Around 85
78 Gorillaz - Stylo {Ft. Bobby Womack and Mos Def} x
80 Black Keys, The - Howlin' For You x
83 Arcade Fire - Modern Man 93
84 Washington - The Hardest Part x
85 Hot Chip - I Feel Better x
86 Evil Eddie - Queensland x
87 Birds Of Tokyo - The Saddest Thing I Know x
89 Interpol - Barricade x

Songs that charted 10 spots or more lower than predicted 2010

26 Crystal Castles - Not In Love {Ft. Robert Smith} 3
30 Yeasayer - O.N.E 17
31 National, The - Bloodbuzz Ohio 18
33 Tame Impala - Solitude Is Bliss 13
36 Chiddy Bang - Opposite Of Adults 21
44 Crystal Castles - Baptism 23
48 Pendulum - Witchcraft 19
58 Arcade Fire - The Suburbs 29
63 Arcade Fire - Ready To Start 31
69 Pendulum - Watercolour 57
71 Gypsy & The Cat - Piper's Song 56
74 Tame Impala - Lucidity 42
77 Big Boi - Shutterbugg {Ft. Cutty} 28
81 Klaxons - Echoes 24
92 LCD Soundsystem - I Can Change 71
95 Broken Bells - The High Road 70
96 Jonsi - Go Do 60
98 Foals - Spanish Sahara 34

In terms of relevance for this year, Boy and Bear are still a real shot at 2nd, and I'd be hesitant putting M83 too high up.
 
Sorry, what I meant was in regards to witness' polling of results - if you read his prediction charts, generally Australian hip hop songs and some female singers tend to chart higher than his predictions (have a look at Lisa Mitchell, lily Allen, etc etc), while some of the more critically acclaimed indie stuff, as detailed before, tends to chart well under his predictions.

Ah ok I see what you were getting at then. :thumbsu:

Hilltop are likely gonna hit top 5 as I'm seeing alot of votes for them now. Pity I can't stand them or Aussie hip hop (Drapht, Phrase and Anecdote aside) in general.

Also never seem to really get into female fronted bands altho I quite like Black Water Rising by Stonefield and don't mind The Jezabels. Just can't explain why, no doubt some have great voices, but it's usually they just don't make the kind of music I really enjoy.
 
Ah ok I see what you were getting at then. :thumbsu:

Hilltop are likely gonna hit top 5 as I'm seeing alot of votes for them now. Pity I can't stand them or Aussie hip hop (Drapht, Phrase and Anecdote aside) in general.

Also never seem to really get into female fronted bands altho I quite like Black Water Rising by Stonefield and don't mind The Jezabels. Just can't explain why, no doubt some have great voices, but it's usually they just don't make the kind of music I really enjoy.

I reckon it's the strength in the voice. I've seen several people make comment on a generation of baby-like styled vocals in Australian artists (Lisa Mitchell, Sarah Blasko, Gossling, etc etc), and how they can't stand it. By comparison, bands like Stonefield and the Jezabels have vocals with real kicks and energy to them, and it gives the music a lot more life.
 

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I was reading on Wikipedia that 1.26 million people voted in last years count! Based on that would we assume a song would need about 10 k votes to make the list at all?

1.26 million votes. This comes back to the query I asked (and had answered) earlier - it means, last year, roughly 126,000 people voted (not all people cast 10 votes, but close enough). The year before that, 1.1 million votes (110,000 people), and before that, 800,000 votes (about 80,000 people). If I had to guess, I reckon it might be around 1.4 million votes this year (140,000 people), and, going off witness saying that 1,600 votes was enough last year, I reckon 2,000 votes would safely tuck you into the 100 this time around!
 
Re: Triple J hottest 100 of 2012 Prediction thread

The top Hundred in my opinion will look something like this:

1. Gotye feat. Kimbra - Somebody That I Used To Know

2. Boy & Bear - Feeding Line

3. Hilltop Hoods feat. Sia - I Love It

4. Art Vs. Science - A.I.M Fire

5. M83 - Midnight City

6. 360 feat. Gossling - Boys Like You

7. The Strokes - Under Cover Of Darkness

8. Architecture In Helsinki - Contact High

9. Kasabian - Re-Wired

10. Foster The People - Helena Beat

11. Calvin Harris - Feel So Close

12. The Black Keys - Lonely Boy

13. The Wombats - Techno Fan

14. Nero - Promises

15. 360 - Killer

16. Bluejuice - Act Yr Age

17. Gotye - I Feel Better

18. Matt Corby - Brother

19. Emma Louise - Jungle

20. Lana Del Ray - Video Games

21. Calvin Harris - Bounce

22. Florence + The Machine - Shake It Out

23. Skrillex - Scary Monsters & Nice Sprites

24. Sparkadia - Mary

25. PNAU - Solid Ground

26. Skrillex - First Of The Year (Equinox)

27. Grouplove - Tongue Tied

28. The Jezabels - Endless Summer

29. The Grates - Turn Me On

30. San Sisco - Awkward

31. Kimbra - Cameo Lover

32. Cut Copy - Need You Now

33. Flight Facilities - Foreign Language

34. Owl Eyes - Pumped Up Kicks (Like A Version)

35. Joe Goddard - Gabriel

36. Drapht - Sing It (The Life Of Riley)

37. Lykke Li - I Follow Rivers

38. Kanye West feat. Jay Z - Otis

39. Benni Benassi - Cinema (Skrillex Remix)

40. The Wombats - Jump Into The Fog

41. Washington - Holy Moses

42. Drapht - Bali Party

43. Foster The People - Houdini

44. Digitalism - Two Hearts

45. Papa Vs. Pretty - Honey

46. Arctic Monkeys - Dont Sit Down Cause I've Moved Your Chair

47. Art Vs. Science - With Thoughts

48. Chiddy Bang - Ray Charles

49. The Strokes - Taken For A Fool

50. Noah And The Whale - L.I.F.E.G.O.E.S.O.N

51. Nero - Crush On You

52. Friendly Fires - Hawaiian Air

53. PNAU - The Truth

54. Florence + The Machine - What The Water Gave Me

55. The Wombats - 1996

56. Example - Changed The Way You Kiss Me

57. The Vaccines - If You Wanna

58. The Naked & Famous - All Of This

59. Seeker Lover Keeper - Even Though I'm A Woman

60. 360 feat. Josh Pyke - Throw It Away

61. James Blake - The Wilhelm Scream

62. Loon Lake - Bad To Me

63. Ball Park Music - All I Want Is You

64. Foster The People - Call It What You Want

65. The Drums - Money

66. Sparkadia - China

67. New Navy - Zimbabwe

68. The Aston Shuffle - Won't Get Lost

69. Bon Iver - Calgary

70. Cosmo Jarvis - Gay Pirates

71. City & Colour - Fragile Bird

72. The Living End - The Ending Is Just The Beginning Repeating

73. Architecture In Helsinki - Escapee

74. The Jezabels - Trycolour

75. Skream and Example – Shot Yourself In The Foot Again

76. Ball Park Music - It's Nice To Be Alive

77. Jebediah - She's Like A Comet

78. Big Scary - Gladiator

79. The Middle East - Land Of The Bloody Unknown

80. The Rapture - How Deep Is Your Love

81. Kasabian - Days Are Forgotten

82. Hermitude - Speak Of The Devil

83. Little Dragon - Ritual Union

84. Kele feat. Lucy Taylor - What Did I Do

85. Justice - Audio, Video, Disco

86. Snakadaktal - Air

87. Portugal The Man - Got It All

88. Yuksek - Always On The Run

89. Joelistics - Glorious Feeling

90. My Morning Jacket - Holding Onto Black Metal

91. Boy & Bear - Milk & Sticks

92. Fleet Foxes - Lorelai

93. Grouplove - Itchin' On A Photograph

94. Bag Raiders - Sunlight

95. Husky - Dark Sea

96. Cults - Go Outside

97. Metronomy - The Look

98. Unknown Mortal Orchestra - Ffunny Ffrends

99. Real Estate - It's Real

100. The Kooks - Is It Me

101 - Martin Solveig feat. Kele - Ready 2 Go
 
Re: Triple J hottest 100 of 2012 Prediction thread

The top Hundred in my opinion will look something like this:

Nice list! I think you have underestimated Drapht and Seeker lover keeper.

Interesting to see that you have techno fan over jump into the fog.
 
Re: Triple J hottest 100 of 2012 Prediction thread

LMAO @ no Foo Fighters in there. List instantly becomes null and void. Rope is a given tbh. Also, The Strokes in the top 10? Really? Don't think so at all.

Good effort coming up with the list tho.
 
1.26 million votes. This comes back to the query I asked (and had answered) earlier - it means, last year, roughly 126,000 people voted (not all people cast 10 votes, but close enough). The year before that, 1.1 million votes (110,000 people), and before that, 800,000 votes (about 80,000 people). If I had to guess, I reckon it might be around 1.4 million votes this year (140,000 people), and, going off witness saying that 1,600 votes was enough last year, I reckon 2,000 votes would safely tuck you into the 100 this time around!

I based that number on only 700,000 votes, sorry. To get into 100th place a song needs around 0.24% of the votes. So around 3300 votes should sneak you into the last spot based on 1.4 million votes.
 
Re: Triple J hottest 100 of 2012 Prediction thread

LMAO @ no Foo Fighters in there. List instantly becomes null and void. Rope is a given tbh.

Neither of my lists had Foo Fighters :(. Thinking of adding rope though when I make last edit.

Voting closes tomorrow!
 
Re: Triple J hottest 100 of 2012 Prediction thread

Neither of my lists had Foo Fighters :(. Thinking of adding rope though when I make last edit.

Voting closes tomorrow!

I thought you said you were gonna add them to your second list? Maybe you said but didn't in the end.

Rope is getting quite alot of votes so a 40-30 spot seems very likely. Arlandria too is doing quite well and alot of the more mainstream fans who pop over to vote will go with The Fooies which will help them anyway.

Have you re-thought adding Blink or RHCP? :p
 
Anyone got the number so I can sms in my top 10?

Webby is down :/

Edit: Meh, sent it to the JJJ sms number, hope they didn't have a special one for hottest 100 :/

Gotye – somebody that I used to know
Lana Del Rey – Video Games
Friends – I’m his girl
RHCP – Brendans Death Song
RHCP- Even you Brutus?
Noah and The Whale – L.I.F.E.G.O.E.S.O.N
The Wombats – Jump into the fog
Band Of Skulls - The Devil Takes Care Of His Own
Emma Louise – Jungle
Architecture in Helsinki – Contact High
 
My prediction:

1 Gotye - Somebody I used to know
2 M83 - Midnight City
3 Black Keys - Lonely Boy
4 Matt Corby - Brother
5 Foster the people - Helena beat
6 Architecture in Helsinki - contact high
7 Grouplove - Tongue Tied
8 Florence and the Machine - Shake It Out
9 Lana Del Ray - Video Games
10 Calvin Harris - Feel So Close
 

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And voting is done. Now it's just the waiting game!

Now all that is left is to think up some sweet drinking games to go along with the lists!

I'm thinking skull half a beer every time a song I don't have is played.
 
My votes
The Antlers - I Don't Want Love (chose the only Antlers song on the list ahead of No Widows)
Austra - Lose It
Bon Iver - Holocene (My number #1 for 2011)
Elbow - Lippy Kids (My number #3)
Florence + The Machine - Shake It Out
Oliver Tank - Last Night I Heard Everything In Slow Motion
M83 - Intro (ft. Zola Jesus)
M83 - Midnight City (My number #2)
The Middle East - Black Death 1349
St Vincent - Cruel

My 11-30
Beirut - Santa Fe
Big Scary - Bad Friends
Bon Iver - Perth
Chairlift - Sidewalk Safari
EMA - California
Emma Louise - Jungle
Feist - How Come You Never Go There
Jack Ladder & The Dreamlanders - Cold Feet
James Blake - Limit To Your Love
James Blake - The Wilhelm Scream
Lana Del Rey - Video Games
Laura Marling - Sophia
Matt Corby - Brother
Mr Little Jeans - The Suburbs
Oscar & Martin - Do The Right Thing
Patrick Wolf - The City
PJ Harvey - The Words That Maketh Murder
SBTRKT - Wildfire (ft. Little Dragon)
The Strokes - Under Cover Of Darkness
The Weeknd - House Of Balloons / Glass Table Girls
 
Now all that is left is to think up some sweet drinking games to go along with the lists!

I'm thinking skull half a beer every time a song I don't have is played.

kbuck and drummosolo, will there be any more changes to your predictions?

I finally managed to stop tinkering with mine and to step away from the computer - with the voting closing I'm not going to change it again.

your drinking game looks interesting kbuck, although I'd end up in hospital given my past record...

bring on the 26th
 
My votes
The Antlers - I Don't Want Love (chose the only Antlers song on the list ahead of No Widows)
Austra - Lose It
Bon Iver - Holocene (My number #1 for 2011)
Elbow - Lippy Kids (My number #3)
Florence + The Machine - Shake It Out
Oliver Tank - Last Night I Heard Everything In Slow Motion
M83 - Intro (ft. Zola Jesus)
M83 - Midnight City (My number #2)
The Middle East - Black Death 1349
St Vincent - Cruel

My 11-30
Beirut - Santa Fe
Big Scary - Bad Friends
Bon Iver - Perth
Chairlift - Sidewalk Safari
EMA - California
Emma Louise - Jungle
Feist - How Come You Never Go There
Jack Ladder & The Dreamlanders - Cold Feet
James Blake - Limit To Your Love
James Blake - The Wilhelm Scream
Lana Del Rey - Video Games
Laura Marling - Sophia
Matt Corby - Brother
Mr Little Jeans - The Suburbs
Oscar & Martin - Do The Right Thing
Patrick Wolf - The City
PJ Harvey - The Words That Maketh Murder
SBTRKT - Wildfire (ft. Little Dragon)
The Strokes - Under Cover Of Darkness
The Weeknd - House Of Balloons / Glass Table Girls

See you at Laneway...
 
kbuck and drummosolo, will there be any more changes to your predictions?

I finally managed to stop tinkering with mine and to step away from the computer - with the voting closing I'm not going to change it again.

your drinking game looks interesting kbuck, although I'd end up in hospital given my past record...

bring on the 26th

Almost certainly. Its mostly a question of if I do it now or wait and see if Witness does his stats list again!
 
I will certainly repost my list. it already looks fairly different (now over 5000 votes) and some people continue to post their votes up on forums after voting closes. I will hope to get it mainly sorted by this Friday though as there are sometimes problems relating to the format that people post in that need some manual clean up.
 
Hey guys,

Great thread, am wickedly keen for this year's countdown! I had a damn tough time nailing mine down to a top 10 (top 20 if you count my second illicit vote :eek:) but here is what I came up for argument's sake.

Matt Corby - Brother - could have said specifically his Balcony TV live version - top 10 smoky?
Beirut - Santa Fe
Bon Iver - Holocene
Bon Iver - Perth
M83 - Midnight City
James Blake - The Wilhelm Scream
Jay-Z & Kanye West - fellows in Paris
Strokes, The - Under Cover Of Darkness
Black Keys, The - Lonely Boy
City and Colour - Fragile Bird

Was particularly tough to leave out

Sparkadia - Mary
Florence - What the Water gave me/Shake it out
Pretty much the entire Bon Iver album (Beth/Rest is a truly astounding track that I would have in now)
Lana Del Ray - Video Games
Noel Gallagher's High Flying Birds - AKA what a life!
Could have picked a couple more city and colour songs - Dallas Green is phenomenal.
James Blake - Limit to your love
Fleet Foxes - Sim Sala Bim etc
Foster the People - Helena Beat, Call it what you want, I would do anything for you (if eligible)
Jay Z/Kanye - Otis (purely on the basis that it is a dedication to the greatest soul singer of all time... I wish I could vote for Try a little tenderness but unfortunately it isn't 1965-ish anymore)
Husky - History's door
Arctic Monkeys - Don't sit down (cause I've moved your chair)
The Strokes - Gratisfaction
Foo Fighters - These days... absolute ripper.
Gotye (I did vote for him in another vote for I feel Better but obviously I really appreciated his entire effort - if Eyes wide Open wasn't in last year it would have been my choice)

Could go on for ages... anyway, good work all!
 
I'm still wondering why Walk by the Foo Fighters wasn't put on the shortlist. Seem to remember the J's not putting Viva La Vida by Coldplay on the 2008 one either, maybe coz it sounds too "mainstream" for them? Which I would find hilarious when Kimbra's whole album is on there aswell as dance pop stuff like Calvin Harris etc. Just seems strange.
 
This is the game myself and a few mates normally play:

I choose 10 songs at random (songs i believe will be somewhere in the count down and that everyone should know) that everyone must guess their position in the count down. The difference between the persons guess and the actual position is then added to the persons overall score. The person with the LOWEST score is declared the winner and recieves the stake-money. If you are able to correctly guess the position of a song you recieve -50 points.

Below are the 10 songs I have chosen. I've tried to choose songs that are tough to predict ie. Rope and Arnold and I've also tried to pick songs that will come at the top and also the bottom of the count down.

Foo Fighters - Rope
Gotye- I Feel Better
Luke Million - Arnold
M83- Midnight City
The Living End - The ending is just the beginning repeating
Arctic Moneys - Don't sit down because I've moved your chair
Big Scary - Gladiator
Hilltop Hoods - I love it
Seeker Lover Keeper - Even though I'm a woman
The Rapture - How deep is your love
 
when you love every song played on triple youd think itd get a bit expensive!!

wow, i can't believe i didn't see this. that is the most ridiculous justification for stealing someones work that i've ever seen.

cost is not a justification for stealing. nor is stealing because you're greedy or poor. what you're essentially saying is that if i love every cd in jb hi-fi but can't afford them, i can just steal them.

this is exactly the same thing, you ignorant fool. "because you can" is not a justification either.

i wonder how you'd feel if i came down to your place of work, sampled every burger that you guys made, and then refused to pay for any of them because "i loved them all so much."

i'm not a massive anti-piracy nerd. like i said, guys like kanye and metallica who are greedy sell outs, who are already millionaires, and whose revenue actually comes more from merchandise and concert tickets, it's different.

but most of the acts that triple j do not fall into this category. most of these artists are struggling to earn as much as you do working full time at the burger joint. i'll reiterate - stealing from them is bullshit.

end of rant.
 

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