- May 5, 2014
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P/L +4U
1.5U - Muniz [vs Park] - $3 (365)
1.5U - Muniz [vs Park] - $3 (365)
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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
UFC Betting
- Thread starter NonPhixion
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Brady made it look easy! Wish I didn't second guess myself.
Card this weekend looks tricky. Can't say I'm across a lot of the Asian fighters anymore, I barely watch prelims these days either. Be a miracle to remain profitable with my all time low interest in it all. Boxing is roaring along the last 2-3 months though, post those on another forum as we have no interest in it here.
Will look into Muniz thanks to Bucking!
Card this weekend looks tricky. Can't say I'm across a lot of the Asian fighters anymore, I barely watch prelims these days either. Be a miracle to remain profitable with my all time low interest in it all. Boxing is roaring along the last 2-3 months though, post those on another forum as we have no interest in it here.
Will look into Muniz thanks to Bucking!
- May 5, 2014
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Yeah, that sucks.
A lot of people were vocal about being on Gastelum, but his line barely changed from what it opened at, which tells you a fair bit - sharps were mainly on Brady, casuals, Gastelum.
Probably best to just rely on the opinion of a couple of bettors to affirm your opinions rather than get influenced by the consensus of the masses.
I have found BigSteve (even though he was on Gastelum) and honestly Gianni the Greek, to be somewhat reliable for re-affirming picks - although ultimately I never pass on something because people I respect are opposing it, I would just use their opinions to take an iffy pick that I was close to taking, but was otherwise going to pass on, if I found that they were both on it (if that makes sense).
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hey mate, good stuff lately, just wanted to chime in r.e your last paragraph.
one of those two is a huge fraud, and it isn't steve.
To be fair i haven't actually taken any notice of Gianni recently but yeah he's got a poor history of lets just say less than transparent recording of phony/stale odds.
a quick google search will uncover a lot more, however those who watched the early DWCS seasons also will know his "analysis" was clear as day wikicapping - plus an all time bad record for a good while there.
Not to mention the tonnes of other things the fraud has pulled.
and as I said previously, a quick google search should bring up a lot more from that scum.
I'd suggest to stay away from Gianni, personally.
- May 5, 2014
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Yeah, I know he did really badly on DWCS. In fairness to him, his betting is solely based off of data which makes it really hard for him as there is essentially none of the data he uses to make selections (sig strikes, etc) available from the regionals.
He was kind of in a bad spot as the UFC wanted him to offer content for DWCS each week, but he had no ability to utilise the "edge" or "system" that he 'allegedly' used to 'successfully' make picks for actual UFC events.
I know he uses other bettors to form his own selections.
He has "relationships" with sharps who he uses to either help form his opinions, or even completely forwards their picks.
I had not heard of him previously taking people's picks and offering them off as his own without disclosing it, although it certainly is possible.
It wouldn't surprise me if he was just using that dude (Rob) to help him form opinions along with other people's picks, and "Rob" has got the wrong idea that he was solely passing all his picks off as his own - IDK
. I have watched a lot of his Wager Talk videos on YT over the stretch and he often talks about buying other people's packages, so it's not something in itself that he is trying to do secretly.I definitely acknowledge he is no massive MMA sharp, he was the best 2nd recommendation that I could come up with that posts regularly, is accessible, and approaches things from a different angle than just breaking something down observationally, which helps you cover both bases.
Let's just lock in BigSteve as someone reliable to cross reference picks with then haha.
theres genuinely a tonne of sharp guys who do offer their time, a lot in the twitter space.Yeah, I know he did really badly on DWCS. In fairness to him, his betting is solely based off of data which makes it really hard for him as there is essentially none of the data he uses to make selections (sig strikes, etc) available from the regionals.
He was kind of in a bad spot as the UFC wanted him to offer content for DWCS each week, but he had no ability to utilise the "edge" or "system" that he 'allegedly' used to 'successfully' make picks for actual UFC events.
I know he uses other bettors to form his own selections.
He has "relationships" with sharps who he uses to either help form his opinions, or even completely forwards their picks.
I had not heard of him previously taking people's picks and offering them off as his own without disclosing it, although it certainly is possible.
It wouldn't surprise me if he was just using that dude (Rob) to help him form opinions along with other people's picks, and "Rob" has got the wrong idea that he was solely passing all his picks off as his own - IDK
I definitely acknowledge he is no massive MMA sharp, he was the best 2nd recommendation that I could come up with that posts regularly, is accessible, and approaches things from a different angle than just breaking something down observationally, which helps you cover both bases.
Let's just lock in BigSteve as someone reliable to cross reference picks with then haha.
in no particular order if you're looking for sharp guys to get some insight from (i assume you're wanting video content?)
technical tim anad gugabe (dunno how often they do a preview but definitely offer a different perspective from what you'll generally get)
martian and ozzy (every week, grinders, whilst personally I don't particularly rate their betting insights so much, they are winning MMA bettors and dont miss a card)
not sure what its called but think steve does a pod / youtube vid sometimes with scrappercapper those guys are pretty decent too.
club n sub podcast - john star likeable guy - dont really value his betting opinions. Same with Lags, its a chill show and used to be a decent watch even if I dont particularly rate the betting insights.
diehard mma - clint is a likeable and occasionally entertaining guy, not sharp at all but yeah more of a lighthearted preview pod than most.
plenty more out there its a saturated market, twitter spaces are another resource if you are looking to get some decent opinions - shawnorr, pepe silvia, mmagigachad all 3 of them are genuinely sharp but also very funny blokes.
Apologies if my post influenced you in any way!
In hindsight, thinking about how bad Gastelum's decision making has been in previous fights when it comes to grappling transitions (e.g. against Whittaker and Hermanson) should have been an indication that he was probably going to a) get taken down easily and not be able to get up, b) likely give up his back and c) probably get subbed
Nah you didnt influence, no one does really but i do like to get opinions. I should have bet, only me to blame. In the end i wanted to live bet it but once gastelums TDD was non existent there were no odds worth it
Spot on with how many were on him yet the line not moving. Should have been the sign
- May 5, 2014
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4.5U - Parlay - $2.58 (Bet Right)
I actually think Paro will stop him, loves record is built of fighting tin cans. Spark was on his way to beating him.
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-1.5U today for the segment.
First losing week for many a week.
Mullarkey
First losing week for many a week.
Mullarkey
TheBettingMan
Draftee
- Mar 21, 2023
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Rakhmonov via KO/TKO or Submission
Garry via KO/TKO or points
Pantoja via KO/TKO or submission
= $4 on Sportsbet. Seems a safe bet to me.
Garry via KO/TKO or points
Pantoja via KO/TKO or submission
= $4 on Sportsbet. Seems a safe bet to me.
Alot of variance there for $4 odds
Garry with a huge step up in competition, Pantoja at 1.57 to win is risky plus adding the stipulation of ITD.
I think all 3 win gun to head but yeah, risky
There's some pretty big underdogs who will cover their lines imo. Salikhov, Menifield, Lipiski, Emmett, Luque.
- Mar 27, 2018
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What a card to end the year. What are we taking lads ?
I don't mind Chaos at $2.4
I don't mind Chaos at $2.4
- May 5, 2014
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hey mate no i dont have any bets on the covington fight, i have backed leon in his last couple but think the market has mostly adjusted correctly here. FWIW my overall thoughts are that leon has a lot of tools to give colby issues but its just hard to bet against the pure workrate/output/cardio of a colby in any scenario let alone when you've got to take fave odds. Easy pass for me.
Will be cheering for leon 100% though.
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I think Covington at his peak is the better fighter, but 2 months shy of his 36th birthday and almost 2 years from having last fought, it is really getting into gambling territory, speculating on how closely he resembles the dominant fighter that people recall.
40% chance to win seems pretty fair all things considered. Look at Kamaru and how quickly a top WW can fall off once they hit 35 (he's gone 0-3).
Honestly I think Garbrandt is the best value on the card. Can get him outright at $1.55 if you shop around. I have him around $1.15.
40% chance to win seems pretty fair all things considered. Look at Kamaru and how quickly a top WW can fall off once they hit 35 (he's gone 0-3).
Honestly I think Garbrandt is the best value on the card. Can get him outright at $1.55 if you shop around. I have him around $1.15.
Shakmov pantoja and Edwards all h2h @2.90
Pantoja by sub TKO ko
Paddy by sub TKO ko
O Niell h2h
Edwards h2h
@9.03
Just realised 365 have changed all there markets and removed the multi booster on ufc.
Pantoja by sub TKO ko
Paddy by sub TKO ko
O Niell h2h
Edwards h2h
@9.03
Just realised 365 have changed all there markets and removed the multi booster on ufc.
- May 5, 2014
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Pretty sure the multi booster is only if you're taking the fighters as straight picks.
Any type of prop bet voids the "boost".
GL on cody - i don't think you could ever really have somebody like him that short personally. But yeh also no interest in backing kelleher at this stage in his career. Cody should handle him, but i think he's probably priced about accurately 1.40-1.50, when you've got chin/confidence issues hard to really price too aggressively.
I think royval is the side in the co-main, have him about 50% there albeit not a fight I can say i'm confident in. Whoever wins it could look quite dominant but i'm pumped for it. Backtakes likely key for pantoja whereas royval is (imo) more threatening almost everywhere else outside of the grappling (and even there could be interesting in phases). Lets go raw dawg.
