Roast Umpiring: Corruption or Incompetence, or both

[RussellEbertHandball]

Finally had a gut full of the umpires, so I am going to start recording stats because with so much betting on footy these days, I cant first help but think are they corrupt taking gambling monies because they can't be this useless, then I think maybe they really are ****en incompetent.

They are unaccountable swill as far as I'm concerned, to paraphrase Paul Keating. Part time bludgers who earn $5,000 a game for jogging around an oval 2 nights a week and then for a couple of hours of game day and never seem to be held to account for their poor decisions.

I will start with my WCE Free Kick watch and update this through the season and add other stats some historic, some 2018 season. From AFL Tables website stats page

WCE at Perth Stadium
Rd 20 v Freo For 36 v 25 Against Shaun Ryan (298), Nathan Williamson (41), Andrew Stephens (83)
Rd 18 v WB For 20 v 20 Against Craig Fleer (94), David Harris (109), Chris Donlon (285)
Rd 16 v GWS For 19 v 17 Against Andre Gianfagna (12), Rob Findlay (203), Simon Meredith (332)
Rd 13 v Ess For 33 v 17 Against Craig Fleer (90), Nathan Williamson (37), Jeff Dalgleish (179), Dean Margetts (312)
Rd 11 v StK For 25 v 12 Against Eleni Glouftsis (9), Curtis Deboy (65), Jeff Dalgleish (177)
Rd 9 v Rich For 21 v 10 Against Brett Rosebury (381), Jeff Dalgleish (175), Leigh Haussen (21)
Rd 7 v Port For 30 v 13 Against Ray Chamberlain (271), Brendan Hosking (116), Curtis Deboy (61)
Rd 6 v Freo For 22 v 20 Against Brent Wallace (39), Jeff Dalgleish (172), Dean Margetts (304)
Rd 5 v GC. For 28 v 19 Against Craig Fleer (81), Rob OGorman (69), Jeff Dalgleish (170)
Rd 3 v Gee For 26 v 19 Against Hayden Gavine (13), Curtis Deboy (57), Matt Stevic (334)
Rd 1 v Syd For 20 v 28 Against Nick Foot (96), Jeff Dalgleish (167), Dean Margetts (299)

Away games
Rd 19 v NM Hob For 17 v 16 Against Andrew Mitchell (110), Mathew Nicholls (327), Brett Rosebury (391)
Rd 17 v Coll MCG For 28 v 24 Against Jacob Mollison (209), Simon Meredith (333), Hayden Gavine (25)
Rd 14 v Adel AO For 20 v 18 Against Jacob Mollison (207), Andrew Stephens (79), Brett Rosebury (387)
Rd 12 v Syd SCG For 27 v 27 Against Shane McInerney (474), Andre Gianfagna (10), Mathew Nicholls (321), Curtis Deboy (66)
Rd 10 V Haw Dock For 19 v 23 Against Brent Wallace (43), Ray Chamberlain (274), Mathew Nicholls (318)
Rd 8 V GWS Show For 20 v 16 Against Craig Fleer (85), Shaun Ryan (289), Hayden Gavine (18)
Rd 4 v Carl MCG For 16 v 25 Against Jacob Mollison (196), Sam Hay (163), Rob OGorman (70)
Rd 2 v WB Dock For 18 v 19 Against Shaun Ryan (283), Rob Findlay (190), Nick Brown (19)


Port at AO - apart from Perth, we get a better run away from AO than at AO
Rd 20 Adel For 12 v 13 Against Andrew Mitchell (111), Mathew Nicholls (328), Brett Rosebury (392)
Rd 18 GWS For 17 v 19 Against Andre Gianfagna (14), Matt Stevic (347), Jeff Dalgleish (184), Giles Lewis (1)
Rd 16 StK For 27 v 17 Against Sam Hay (172), Justin Schmitt (356), Leigh Fisher (109)
Rd 14 Mel For 30 v 24 Against Sam Hay (170), Mathew Nicholls (322), Curtis Deboy (67), Shane McInerney (475)
Rd 13 WB For 23 v 26 Against Jacob Mollison (204), Simon Meredith (328), Brett Rosebury (384), Nick Foot (108)
Rd 12 Ric For 19 v 17 Against Shaun Ryan (293), David Harris (104), Ray Chamberlain (276)
Rd 8 Adel For 24 v 14 Against Simon Meredith (323), Leigh Haussen (20), Chris Donlon (276)
Rd 5 Gee For 20 v 24 Against Shaun Ryan (286), Hayden Gavine (15), Dean Margetts (303)
Rd 3 Bris For 20 v 27 Against Andrew Mitchell (107), David Harris (94), Simon Meredith (318)
Rd 1 Freo For 23 v 17 Against Shane McInerney (465), Nathan Williamson (23), Sam Hay (159)

Away Games
Rd 19 WB. For 27 v 23 Against Eleni Glouftsis (13), Troy Pannell (215), Andrew Stephens (82)
Rd 17 Freo For 14 v 23 Against Andrew Mitchell (108), Alex Whetton (7), Justin Schmitt (357)
Rd 15 Car For 23 v 21 Against Rob OGorman (77), Simon Meredith (331), Leigh Fisher (108)
Rd 11 Haw For 23 v 31 Against Brendan Hosking (120), Mathew Nicholls (319), Hayden Gavine (21)
Rd 9 GCS For 23 v 36 Against Jacob Mollison (200), Leigh Fisher (105), Nick Foot (104)
Rd 7 WCE For 13 v 30 Against Ray Chamberlain (271), Brendan Hosking (116), Curtis Deboy (61)
Rd 6 NM.. For 21 v 21 Against Craig Fleer (83), Justin Schmitt (351), Leigh Fisher (102)
Rd 4 Ess. For 21 v 15 Against Jacob Mollison (195), Mathew Nicholls (312), Nick Brown (21)
Rd 2 Syd For 20 v 17 Against Andrew Stephens (74), Leigh Haussen (14), Chris Donlon (270)

 

[OneGreatClub]

Thanks I wanted to start such a thread

 

[jdeezy]

Umpiring is not going to change a result like yesterday's no matter what happens, but it certainly does feel like every other team gets a "Home Ground boost" that we do not.

Number crunchers, do other teams get the rub of the green at home? Do we actually miss out or is it just me being one-eyed?

 

[tribey]

Umpiring is not going to change a result like yesterday's no matter what happens, but it certainly does feel like every other team gets a "Home Ground boost" that we do not.

Number crunchers, do other teams get the rub of the green at home? Do we actually miss out or is it just me being one-eyed?

I had a similar thread going that had our post-AO redevelopment average frees for at something like 17.7 and frees against at 17.3, from memory.

From a raw statistical standpoint at least, there is no discernible advantage for Port at home.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Its probably a greater concern of the ones they dont pay, either completely miss or are too scared to call, that should some how be recorded and are a greater impact but you dont have stats for that. The umpiring department used to put out stats in the early '00's about missed frees, but they stopped doing it because they couldn't handle the bad PR around those stats, plus they knew people laughed at how ridiculously low the missed free stats were.

 

[Magus]

We miss a lot of the 50/50 calls. You can guarantee we'll cop a howler of a deliberate call at home but when the opposition does something similar it's ignored.

Dixon and Robbie get scragged nearly every week and rarely get frees. When you see some of the angst they show towards umpires it wouldn't surprise me if they aren't well liked and they want to make an example out of them.

So to answer the title of the thread, I dont think its corruption. It's a bit of incompetence and a bit of personal bias. We know that certain star players get special treatment. They just dont seem to like us.

 

[Magpiespower]

 

[just_kick_it]

Umpiring is not going to change a result like yesterday's no matter what happens, but it certainly does feel like every other team gets a "Home Ground boost" that we do not.

Number crunchers, do other teams get the rub of the green at home? Do we actually miss out or is it just me being one-eyed?

Heres the stats so far for 2018 for WCE and Port. As you can see WCE are +5 in FF at Optus Stadium whereas Port are -2 in FF at AO. Ill have a look at a couple of others like Geelong and the Cows now.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

We miss a lot of the 50/50 calls. You can guarantee we'll cop a howler of a deliberate call at home but when the opposition does something similar it's ignored.

Dixon and Robbie get scragged nearly every week and rarely get frees. When you see some of the angst they show towards umpires it wouldn't surprise me if they aren't well liked and they want to make an example out of them.

So to answer the title of the thread, I dont think its corruption. It's a bit of incompetence and a bit of personal bias. We know that certain star players get special treatment. They just dont seem to like us.

You can have a lot of fun with the compare the pair, or compare upto 4 players at this site
http://finalsiren.com/PlayerCompare.asp

http://finalsiren.com/PlayerCompare...ak&PlayerName3=&PlayerName4=&SelectedPlayers=
Joel Selwood Frees For 692 v 325 Against. Travis Boak Frees For 227 v 222 Frees Against

 

[just_kick_it]

So here's the other resident of the "Portress" as you can see +10 in frees for. Geelong are also kissed on the dick at 'home'. Tomorrow Ill have a look and see if there is anyone else that gets the same treatment from the umps as Port at home.

 

[Powerage]

Chamberlain is a campaigner. Flat out. Somebody from Port did his wife or something.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

So here's the other resident of the "Portress" as you can see +10 in frees for. Geelong are also kissed on the dick at 'home'. Tomorrow Ill have a look and see if there is anyone else that gets the same treatment from the umps as Port at home.
View attachment 493424

WCE v Freo averages in Perth is similar to Adelaide v Port averages at AO both this year and historically at Subi the last decade or so. I will do Freo tomorrow for both home and away in 2018.

 

[Eric Blair]

Corruption or incompetence?

 

[Peck]

The Carlton game where they wouldnt let Colquhoun take the shot on goal was the one that convinced me that match fixing thru umpiring very likely exists.

Maybe not in many games, maybe not even in that particular game, though who knows. I doubt Gil would want to investigate.

 

[Robbie4PM]

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

The Arc regularly does artcles on free kicks. His stuff on Joel Selwood is classic stuff. You can check out all his articles on free kicks at https://thearcfooty.com/tag/free-kicks/


This one as part of his ESPN Footy Forensics in May 2017 can be found at

http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...ics-explains-free-kick-counts-2017-afl-season
Home clubs tend to win the free kick count, but not all teams fare equally well with the umpires. West Coast have done particularly well over the years, securing an average of 4.4 more free kicks than their opponents when playing at home since 2000. The Bulldogs, too, have received a sizeable leg-up - they have averaged 2.8 net free kicks in their home games this century. But at the other end of the spectrum, the Hawks at home have tended to get slightly fewer free kicks than the away team, leaving them with a negative average net free kick count; the figures for Brisbane and Melbourne are also negligible.

DATA: AFLTABLES.COM. INCLUDES ALL REGULAR SEASON GAMES FROM 2000 TO ROUND 2, 2017, INCLUSIVE.



In recent years, home teams have averaged around 1.5 to 2 more free kicks than their opponents each game. Last year, the average free kick differential between home and away teams hit 2.1 - the highest figure since the early 1990s. Strikingly, in the first two rounds of the 2017 season, home teams have averaged 3.6 more free kicks than their opponents, but it's too early to conclude much from that.

DATA: AFLTABLES.COM. INCLUDES ALL REGULAR SEASON GAMES FROM 1990 ROUND 2 2017,
INCLUSIVE.

http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...ics-explains-free-kick-counts-2017-afl-season

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

From April 2016

https://thearcfooty.com/2016/04/23/freekicksathome/
So what do teams’ records look like when playing as the home team? The Eagles’ home ground advantage in net free kicks at Subi is still the biggest in the league, but the Giants at Manuka and the Bulldogs at Docklands are not far behind. Geelong has quite a hefty home ground disadvantage in free kicks when playing at the MCG – probably reflecting the large number of opposition fans that show up to their “home” games in Melbourne.

https://thearcfooty.com/2016/04/23/freekicksathome/


and

https://thearcfooty.com/2016/04/24/which-teams-gets-all-the-free-kicks/
We’ve established that West Coast gets an average of around 4 net free kicks when they play at home. This means that the Eagles get 4 more free kicks in their favour than their opponents. But is this because the Eagles are given a lot more free kicks, or because they concede fewer frees to the opposition? It turns out that the answer is both. The Eagles get an average of over 20 free kicks in their favour in home games, the most in the league, while conceding fewer than 16 per game, the second lowest in the league.

https://thearcfooty.com/2016/04/24/which-teams-gets-all-the-free-kicks/

 

[El_Scorcho]

I find umpiring really hard to get a gauge on because it's natural to feel like shit free kicks only get paid against you.

Honestly there are probably only 4 games I can recall over the hundreds and hundreds of football games i've seen where I feel like umpiring genuinely cost us the game (and once I guess where a scoreboard attendant cost us the game)

38-15
Bulldogs 2007 heritage round at Etihad (27-13)
Essendon 2011 last quarter
Carlton 2015 (24-10 including IIRC 7-0 in the final quarter of a game we lost by 4 points)

Other than that I think generally we've deserved to lose when we've lost.

38-15 was the biggest free kick differential since 1993 when it happened. I assume it still is. 30-13 is pretty massive, but i'd love to see a record of the highest single game free kick differentials.

 

[FishingRick04]

Your forgot the North Melb shafting in Tassie

 

[wayb2912]

The Carlton game where they wouldnt let Colquhoun take the shot on goal was the one that convinced me that match fixing thru umpiring very likely exists.

Maybe not in many games, maybe not even in that particular game, though who knows. I doubt Gil would want to investigate.

That Carlton game was fixed 100%. 2 Marks being paid 20m out to Henderson after they clearly hit the ground and decisions being missed all day. The umpires dont necessarily change the result of the game, but they heavily influence the momentum. I have been to too many games and been left bewildered by the umpiring, it honestly makes me not want to watch footy anymore. I turned off the game early in the second quarter Saturday purely because of the horrid umpiring. I can handle us not playing well but all i want to see is a fairly umpired game! I also believe our players let it get to them as well

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[DazzaTys]

I spent many years umpiring after hanging the boots up. Never played at the top level but umpired in both city and country football. I’ve always felt that the best umpires are people that have played the game. They just seem to be able to apply a bit more common sense when making decisions.

I’m certainly not saying that all umpires are bad, but there are enough ex fit AFL players who would be able to slip straight into umpiring. Probably wouldn’t get overawed by a screaming 50,000 crowd either.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I find umpiring really hard to get a gauge on because it's natural to feel like shit free kicks only get paid against you.

Honestly there are probably only 4 games I can recall over the hundreds and hundreds of football games i've seen where I feel like umpiring genuinely cost us the game (and once I guess where a scoreboard attendant cost us the game)

38-15
Bulldogs 2007 heritage round at Etihad (27-13)
Essendon 2011 last quarter
Carlton 2015 (24-10 including IIRC 7-0 in the final quarter of a game we lost by 4 points)

Other than that I think generally we've deserved to lose when we've lost.

38-15 was the biggest free kick differential since 1993 when it happened. I assume it still is. 30-13 is pretty massive, but i'd love to see a record of the highest single game free kick differentials.

Here are the stats for the biggest differentials in frees and you will see they all occurred in the 70's and 80's, when 75 to 100 free kicks per game were the norm. Biggest discrepancy is 39 ie 59-20 Geelong v Melbourne at Kardinia Park back in 1977 in a 104 v 98 pt game. You cant tell me 39 extra frees didnt change the result of that game. The equal 16th to 20th discrepancy is 26.

https://afltables.com/afl/stats/diffs.html#12

If you look at these huge discrepancies you see they basically are 2 to 1 type results which means given less frees are paid these days, a 2 to 1 type 30-13 result is equally an outlier.

As I wrote the other day in General AF L thread - It just doesnt make sense that the AFL have continually added rules to the game, more grey areas, yet less frees are being paid. I dont want the super technical ones paid eg he sees a jumper being held and he can see it stretched 5 cm and pays that one, but they miss plenty of other basic frees. And more importantly pay one type some times and not others.

Here is the number of free kicks paid in the first game listed for Rd 12 for every 5 years or so or when the number of umpires changed. The only change in my games selection method is if Docklands is the first game in Rd 12, I will then use the 2nd game as the roof changes things in mid winter.
From https://afltables.com site

1970 105 frees
1975 72 frees
1976 85 frees ** 2 umpires introduced
1981 74 frees
1986 52 frees
1991 74 frees
1994 49 frees ** 3 umpires introduced
1999 36 frees
2004 15 frees
2009 36 frees
2014 35 frees
2015 27 frees
2016 33 frees
2017 36 frees

So 30-13 isn't normal under the current umpiring system.

Edit transfer info on the above season from this post Feb 2020

Mega Thread - Port Forum 'General AFL Talk' Thread Part 13

If you paid every free kick that was technically there, you'd be paying literally thousands a game.

www.bigfooty.com

I did a list going back to 1970 of Rd 11, ie mid winter, every few years and compared it to when 1 vs 2 vs 3 umpires and how free kicks paid has come down over 50 years. Search function is down so I can't copy that list.

If coaches get pissed off with the number of frees paid maybe they will coach their players better and change their tactics to accommodate their players' skills.

Had a quick look at total free kicks for a season rather than the Rd 11 games.

1976 2nd ump introduced. 1994 3rd ump introduced.

So more rules, more interpretations, more umpires, but a sh*t load less free kicks? Why?

Year	Umps	Games	Frees	Ave/Game
1970	1	136	11,254	82.75
1974	1	138	10,398	75.35
1976	2	138	10,198	73.90
1979	2	138	10,932	79.22
1984	2	138	9,251	67.04
1989	2	160	9,083	56.77
1994	3	174	7,526	43.25
1999	3	185	6,991	37.79
2004	3	185	5,493	29.69
2009	3	185	6,610	35.73
2014	3	207	6,913	33.40
2019	3	207	7,792	37.64

 

[wraglesweb]

Awesome thread

 

[Waspy79]

Awesome thread

#freekickeagles

 

[scottjr]

All I can think of is to actually stop play and review decisions via video. Humans simply can not umpire afl. I would like to think they are just incompetent and not corrupt.

Time out. A 30 metre exclusion zone bar the players concerned and the umpire while decisions are made.

Just random thoughts again. There has to be some way of getting better calls made and field umpires may not be the best way of doing it.