Umpiring

Are they?

  • Yes

    Votes: 52 49.5%

  • No

    Votes: 17 16.2%

  • They will until this group has officially been broken, Hardwick aint Coach and Gale isn't CEO

    Votes: 36 34.3%
  • Total voters
    105

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Serious question: Is there anything that says or requires the AFL to not be corrupt? If they are not a party to the sports integrity commission, perhaps there is nothing governing them. And they can be corrupt if they like. They can sit there at start of year and instruct umpires,tribunal, rule makers who they want to make the finals or win the GF and that is totally fine. Nothing illegal. ????
 
Lsta062 said:
Well I don’t disagree with a lot of that tbh. We are one of the most undisciplined sides, which is why I don’t have much of an issue with how much free kicks we give away. My issue is more with how little we get back. It looks like teams become disciplined against us all of a sudden. But that’s not what I see when watching the game.

Something weird’s going on since 2017. The differential could be explained by our gamestyle when this strangeness first appeared, but I don’t think that’s the case right now.

But we’re obviously not where we are solely because of umpires of course. If the umpiring in our game was normal this year, then I doubt we would have been much higher. It’s just so frustrating to watch.
Click to expand...
I'm in the process of doing this exercise for this season. Did it all last season. Came up with a method for normalizing free kicks and 50m penalties and adjusting the game score accordingly. It's a subjective method but is applied equally to all teams. Tigers results:

2022 we finished 7th with 13 wins, 8 losses, 1 draw, and a percentage of 121.6. My method has us finishing 3rd with 16 wins, 5 losses, and a percentage of 126.9. We'd be off to play Sydney in an away final. Pies slipped from 4th to 7th. We also had the biggest percentage differential indicating free kicks were negatively influencing our games the most.

2023 we're currently 13th with 9 wins, 11 losses, 1 draw, and a percentage of 93.1. My method has us at 10 wins, 11 losses, and a percentage of 96.1. So not as drastic as last year but still negative.
 
Nothing to see here

www.espn.com.au

Betting safeguards introduced for Brownlow

Round-by-round gambling on the 2023 Brownlow Medal has been ticked off by the Victorian Gambling and Casino Control Commission, albeit after several new safeguards had been implemented.
www.espn.com.au www.espn.com.au

umpires FIXED 10 of the 16 games cripps/Carlton played in
 

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SunshineBoy said:
Nothing to see here

www.espn.com.au

Betting safeguards introduced for Brownlow

Round-by-round gambling on the 2023 Brownlow Medal has been ticked off by the Victorian Gambling and Casino Control Commission, albeit after several new safeguards had been implemented.
www.espn.com.au www.espn.com.au

umpires FIXED 10 of the 16 games cripps/Carlton played in
Click to expand...
Yeah nothing to see. Typical. What a farce
 
The other side of this is we are the only club in history to win three flags getting absolutely shafted by the umps,that’s how good our team was in that dynasty period.

No other club can claim that.
 
Do the Dew said:
I'm in the process of doing this exercise for this season. Did it all last season. Came up with a method for normalizing free kicks and 50m penalties and adjusting the game score accordingly. It's a subjective method but is applied equally to all teams. Tigers results:

2022 we finished 7th with 13 wins, 8 losses, 1 draw, and a percentage of 121.6. My method has us finishing 3rd with 16 wins, 5 losses, and a percentage of 126.9. We'd be off to play Sydney in an away final. Pies slipped from 4th to 7th. We also had the biggest percentage differential indicating free kicks were negatively influencing our games the most.

2023 we're currently 13th with 9 wins, 11 losses, 1 draw, and a percentage of 93.1. My method has us at 10 wins, 11 losses, and a percentage of 96.1. So not as drastic as last year but still negative.
Click to expand...
Very interesting. I think this backs up my suspicion that umpiring had a large effect last year but not much this year. How did you do the process of normalising the free kicks?
 
Lsta062 said:
Very interesting. I think this backs up my suspicion that umpiring had a large effect last year but not much this year. How did you do the process of normalising the free kicks?
Click to expand...
That Tom Lynch non replay still haunts me.
Why did they not show a replay?
They have for every other goal review.
Stinks of corruption.
Must have been too close to overturn.
 
Lsta062 said:
Very interesting. I think this backs up my suspicion that umpiring had a large effect last year but not much this year. How did you do the process of normalising the free kicks?
Click to expand...
Every free kick and 50m penalty is a chance to move the ball 50m forwards. So if you have a +10 free kick differential at the end of the game, you've been theoretically gifted 500m of extra territory. You can then divide this number by the length of the ground and hypothetically this is how many extra scoring shots have been generated from free kicks. Using this and considering a teams goals/points total for the match, it decreases scores from the team that has more free kicks accordingly.

An example from last year was the pillaging we received against the Crows in Round 5. We lost 15.11.101 to 12.10.82. However, free kicks that day were 33 to 13 Adelaide's way. Using my method, the revised score was 80 to 82, Tigers win! The other results that would've turned around was Round 15 vs Geelong (free kicks 26/13 Geelong's way), and Round 17 vs Gold Coast (20/16 GC's way).

It's a rudimentary method but was a fun exercise. You could also add in the percentage of scores per I50s and a variety of other factors that I couldn't be arsed doing (and don't have the stats for).
 
smasha said:
The other side of this is we are the only club in history to win three flags getting absolutely shafted by the umps,that’s how good our team was in that dynasty period.

No other club can claim that.
Click to expand...
Stick that AFL. That makes me so happy. We were a powerhouse, nobody could stop us (even the cheating AFL!!). So proud!
 
RoaringTiger said:
Stick that AFL. That makes me so happy. We were a powerhouse, nobody could stop us (even the cheating AFL!!). So proud!
Click to expand...
So bloody good!
Through a compromised Draft!
Through an expanded AFL Competition.
Through a World Wide Covid infection.
Through a barrage of negative free kick bias!
Only Gastro infection stopped us in 2018 to make it a 4Peat!
Never to be repeated!
We were the GOAT!
 
Do the Dew said:
Every free kick and 50m penalty is a chance to move the ball 50m forwards. So if you have a +10 free kick differential at the end of the game, you've been theoretically gifted 500m of extra territory. You can then divide this number by the length of the ground and hypothetically this is how many extra scoring shots have been generated from free kicks. Using this and considering a teams goals/points total for the match, it decreases scores from the team that has more free kicks accordingly.

An example from last year was the pillaging we received against the Crows in Round 5. We lost 15.11.101 to 12.10.82. However, free kicks that day were 33 to 13 Adelaide's way. Using my method, the revised score was 80 to 82, Tigers win! The other results that would've turned around was Round 15 vs Geelong (free kicks 26/13 Geelong's way), and Round 17 vs Gold Coast (20/16 GC's way).

It's a rudimentary method but was a fun exercise. You could also add in the percentage of scores per I50s and a variety of other factors that I couldn't be arsed doing (and don't have the stats for).
Click to expand...

That's the sort of modelling I do. Simple and logical. Just gets you to the heart of the matter, but isn't hugely accurate.

If you can get where frees are then you start to be fairly accurate. Normalise by accuracy in goal kicking and you get a pretty decent model. Probably find that the end results are in your ball park in my experience. Typically a rough model that is logical ends up near the detailed model.
 
UncleBob said:
So lads, how much are we going to be shafted tomorrow?
What rule shall they bring out of the rulebook to penalise us that hasn't been seen in years?
Click to expand...
im going with 2 protected area 50's
zero frees to our forwards
3 down the field free's that aren't even there
 

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Do the Dew said:
Every free kick and 50m penalty is a chance to move the ball 50m forwards. So if you have a +10 free kick differential at the end of the game, you've been theoretically gifted 500m of extra territory. You can then divide this number by the length of the ground and hypothetically this is how many extra scoring shots have been generated from free kicks. Using this and considering a teams goals/points total for the match, it decreases scores from the team that has more free kicks accordingly.

An example from last year was the pillaging we received against the Crows in Round 5. We lost 15.11.101 to 12.10.82. However, free kicks that day were 33 to 13 Adelaide's way. Using my method, the revised score was 80 to 82, Tigers win! The other results that would've turned around was Round 15 vs Geelong (free kicks 26/13 Geelong's way), and Round 17 vs Gold Coast (20/16 GC's way).

It's a rudimentary method but was a fun exercise. You could also add in the percentage of scores per I50s and a variety of other factors that I couldn't be arsed doing (and don't have the stats for).
Click to expand...
Thanks! That’s very interesting because it takes each game on a case-by-case basis
 
Dr Tigris said:
That's the sort of modelling I do. Simple and logical. Just gets you to the heart of the matter, but isn't hugely accurate.

If you can get where frees are then you start to be fairly accurate. Normalise by accuracy in goal kicking and you get a pretty decent model. Probably find that the end results are in your ball park in my experience. Typically a rough model that is logical ends up near the detailed model.
Click to expand...
I wish we could see a graphic after every game that shows where each free kick was given, what for, and by which umpire. Would be such a good tool and entirely within the AFLs capability but zero chance it'll ever be given to the fans. FFs we can't even get 50m penalty stats, I had to go down an alternate route for that.
 
Do the Dew said:
I wish we could see a graphic after every game that shows where each free kick was given, what for, and by which umpire. Would be such a good tool and entirely within the AFLs capability but zero chance it'll ever be given to the fans. FFs we can't even get 50m penalty stats, I had to go down an alternate route for that.
Click to expand...
Oh yeahhhh...the devil or the machinations of The AFL's Old Boys Club is in the hard won and revealed detail!
 
UncleBob said:
So lads, how much are we going to be shafted tomorrow?
What rule shall they bring out of the rulebook to penalise us that hasn't been seen in years?
Click to expand...
Well I just heard clarkson say an 8 m pass was given by the umps in the spirit of the game , what he said there is no spirit of the game it’s a farce
 
Meteoric Rise said:
OK, I am getting very concerned here early 3rd term we trail the free kick count 7-8. In danger of winning or levelling the free kick count to snap an all time run of 12 consecutive free kick count losses.

Come on umps, # free kick North please.
Click to expand...

The Larkey 'high contact' is going to be the one that pushes it, isn't it?
 

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