- Feb 16, 2012
- 5,894
- 10,913
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Other Teams
- Portland Trailblazers
That's the sort of modelling I do. Simple and logical. Just gets you to the heart of the matter, but isn't hugely accurate.
If you can get where frees are then you start to be fairly accurate. Normalise by accuracy in goal kicking and you get a pretty decent model. Probably find that the end results are in your ball park in my experience. Typically a rough model that is logical ends up near the detailed model.
It's interesting but it really only tells us what the results might be if all teams were not only unaffected by umpiring bias, but also had equal amounts of discipline and ability to execute good tackles and spoils. Obviously, in the real world some teams are more disciplined and/or more technically correct in their execution of contact plays.
I totally believe that we've been treated unfairly by the umpiring fraternity and the AFL right through the dynasty, but you'd need to actually go through footage game by game and record all the incorrectly awarded and missed free kicks to come up with something that would convince the general population.