As if the fixture itself wasn't a big enough freebie for them.
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Umpiring
- Thread starter eays
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imagine
sportsbet offer $15/1 for each team to finish bottom of the free kick differentials
before the season for all teams in march
imagine 8 years ago in 2016
whack on $100 tigers for giggles = $1500 profit
reinvest the lot for 2017 at same odds = $22,500+
rinse and repeat
end of 2024 = you're richer than Bill Gates.
outlay = $100
sportsbet offer $15/1 for each team to finish bottom of the free kick differentials
before the season for all teams in march
imagine 8 years ago in 2016
whack on $100 tigers for giggles = $1500 profit
reinvest the lot for 2017 at same odds = $22,500+
rinse and repeat
end of 2024 = you're richer than Bill Gates.
outlay = $100
Richmond free kick treatment 2017-2024 displayed in the table below...
As we can see, Richmond had the worst differential 5 of the 8 seasons. Second worst in 2 of the 8 seasons. 6th worst in 1 of the 8 seasons. Best ranking AFL #13.
AFL #18 free kicks for in 4 of the 8 seasons. AFL #17 in 1 of the 8 seasons. Best ranking AFL #10.
AFL #1 free kicks against in 4 of the 8 seasons. AFL #2 in 1 of the 8 seasons. Best ranking AFL #8(the higher the number the better your ranking is in this parameter.)
13 of the 24 rankings Richmond has the least beneficial ranking possible. That is more than half. The other 17 AFL clubs between them only "achieved" a worst possible ranking in any of these 3 categories 11 times, 2 times less than Richmond.
Plus 4 of the 24 rankings Richmond had the 2nd least beneficial ranking possible.
But possibly the most remarkable thing here. There are 24 rankings in the table. 8 x free kicks for, 8 x free kicks against, & 8 x differential. In all 24 rankings without exception, Richmond got a less desirable result than AFL median.
The upshot of this is Richmond has on average a -80 free kick differential each season for the last 8 years. Compared to an AFL average team, this is roughly equivalent of getting the average amount of free kicks in 80% of your matches, but in the other 20% you receive zero free kicks, while your opponent receives an average quota of free kicks in 100% of your games.
Stated another way it is like receiving zero free kicks and your opponent receives an average amount of free kicks in every 5th game, but at all other times your free kicks for and against are AFL average. By my calculations, that would be enough to lose an average AFL team 2 games per season they otherwise would have won.
And that is just from free kicks. By the time you add in the extended bias for 50m penalties, marks paid/not paid, fake advantage calls, early play on calls against Richmond v late play on calls against the opposition, fake ARC calls, the effect is only going to rise upwards of 2 games per year cost. And that is comparing to AFL average with Richmond included. The effect of comparison with just the other 17 clubs without Richmond would be worse. But if you found the team who was best treated and compared them to Richmond the effect is likely to be that team having 3+ wins worth of officiating advantage over Richmond per season. So it is not a marginal effect.
*2020 adjusted to account for shortened games.
As we can see, Richmond had the worst differential 5 of the 8 seasons. Second worst in 2 of the 8 seasons. 6th worst in 1 of the 8 seasons. Best ranking AFL #13.
AFL #18 free kicks for in 4 of the 8 seasons. AFL #17 in 1 of the 8 seasons. Best ranking AFL #10.
AFL #1 free kicks against in 4 of the 8 seasons. AFL #2 in 1 of the 8 seasons. Best ranking AFL #8(the higher the number the better your ranking is in this parameter.)
13 of the 24 rankings Richmond has the least beneficial ranking possible. That is more than half. The other 17 AFL clubs between them only "achieved" a worst possible ranking in any of these 3 categories 11 times, 2 times less than Richmond.
Plus 4 of the 24 rankings Richmond had the 2nd least beneficial ranking possible.
But possibly the most remarkable thing here. There are 24 rankings in the table. 8 x free kicks for, 8 x free kicks against, & 8 x differential. In all 24 rankings without exception, Richmond got a less desirable result than AFL median.
The upshot of this is Richmond has on average a -80 free kick differential each season for the last 8 years. Compared to an AFL average team, this is roughly equivalent of getting the average amount of free kicks in 80% of your matches, but in the other 20% you receive zero free kicks, while your opponent receives an average quota of free kicks in 100% of your games.
Stated another way it is like receiving zero free kicks and your opponent receives an average amount of free kicks in every 5th game, but at all other times your free kicks for and against are AFL average. By my calculations, that would be enough to lose an average AFL team 2 games per season they otherwise would have won.
And that is just from free kicks. By the time you add in the extended bias for 50m penalties, marks paid/not paid, fake advantage calls, early play on calls against Richmond v late play on calls against the opposition, fake ARC calls, the effect is only going to rise upwards of 2 games per year cost. And that is comparing to AFL average with Richmond included. The effect of comparison with just the other 17 clubs without Richmond would be worse. But if you found the team who was best treated and compared them to Richmond the effect is likely to be that team having 3+ wins worth of officiating advantage over Richmond per season. So it is not a marginal effect.
| Year | AFL ranking free kicks for | AFL ranking free kicks against | AFL Ranking free kick differential | Average differential per match |
| 2017 | 10 | 1 | 18 | -2.4 |
| 2018 | 18 | 2 | 18 | -5.1 |
| 2019 | 12 | 8 | 13 | -1.2 |
| 2020 | 15 | 1 | 17 | -4.1* |
| 2021 | 18 | 1 | 18 | -3.9 |
| 2022 | 17 | 1 | 18 | -3.7 |
| 2023 | 18 | 7 | 17 | -2.6 |
| 2024 | 18 | 6 | 18 | -3.7 |
*2020 adjusted to account for shortened games.
Last edited:
- May 1, 2011
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Great post. Hopefully with new CEO the club will call this crap out!!! And get it stopped!!!
I've got slightly different numbers (still horrific) using the AFL Tables website that includes frees during finals.
2017, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2024 we are last on differential.
2023 we were second last.
2019 we were 6th last.
Not sure what your method of determining how many games we have potentially lost due to umpiring is. I made one that assumes every free kick is a free 50m of territory. Every 3 free kicks or so (depending on ground size) equates to a scoring shot and then I subtracted scores due to free kicks based on that teams accuracy for that match. I just did it for season 2022 and found that we would've jumped from 7th to 3rd and increased our percentage by 5%. The biggest losers were Collingwood (4th to 7th) and Melbourne (2nd to 5th).
It shits me when oppo supporters say that umpiring doesn't matter, doesn't have to be equal etc. Easy to say that when you're sitting in a good pasture getting preferential treatment. And even when you have a bad year there's nothing to worry about as you'll likely be moved back to good feeding grounds again the next. Compared to the Tigers that have been eating dust and tumbleweed for 8 years despite a complete list, gameplan, and coaching overhaul.
I might take a look at the AFLTables and re-check my figures there. I got my numbers from footywire.
I didn't simulate individual matches or anything like that. My method is rough and a bit complex. On average a free kick is in the dead centre of the ground. The normal expectation from there is that results in an inside 50. So on average 1 free kick = 1 inside 50. Roughly every 4 inside 50's you get a goal, and another one in every set of 4 inside 50's will result in a behind. Then to make it simple I just imagined the whole free kick deficits, on average 80 frees per season(4.5 games worth) were confined to 20% of matches and the other 80% of matches free kicks are even. So I imagined that every 5th match we get zero free kicks and the opponent gets and average amount of free kicks, roughly 18. So teams are about 4-5 times per season on average being gifted 18 more inside 50's than us and that equates to about 31 points on the scoreboard, on average. I reasoned by looking at margins this is enough to change the result against us in around 1/2 or more of these 4.5 games per season I was applying the free kick deficit to.
A simpler way would be to simply say on average we are getting a deficit of 3.5 free kicks per game. That is worth roughly 1 goal. And so if you evened up the free kicks in every game(which is the effect an AFL club experiences on average) it would have the effect of wiping out all our sub 6 point losses. There are 14 of those over 8 years, so almost 2 per year. But remember that is just free kicks for and against being levelled. Not all the other stuff like 50m penalties, play on calls, marks paid/not paid etc. And you can be certain if the umps and officials are biased against you then that bias will extend into these areas as well. So you could be confident fair umpiring would amount to about 2 or more extra wins per year for Richmond over the last 8 years. This is assuming that lopsided rulings are caused by unfair officiating and not our team playing in some way that infringes the rules more than opposition teams. But we have all seen the games so we know that the rules were not applied equally to Richmond and their opponents.
So I think it is right that the officiating has probably cost us net 15 or more wins over the last 8 years, and around 5% in percentage. A goal a game + for the other officiating beside free kicks.
When we don't achieve a single ranking equal to or above AFL media out of 24 free kick related rankings in an 8 year period, AND we have more worst possible case rankings than the rest of the competition put together, something is not right.
Like we get bottom ranked in 54% of the available rankings for
1. frees for
2. frees against &
3. differential
On average each of the other 17 teams achieve a worst case ranking against these parameters 2.7% of the time in that period. We are getting 20 times the rate of bottom rankings when compared to the average per team of the other 17 teams. ie we are getting 20 bottom rankings for every one another specific team gets on average. The only time I have found anything remotely like this since free kick stats became available in 1965 is the Hawks teams of the 60's and 70's when players like Delicate Des Dickson and Leigh Matthews were routinely running around targetting opponent's heads in the one central umpire days. So the ump would penalise the team harshly in an attempt to stop them playing the man. There was of course no video evidence admissable at the Tribunal in those days.
Thanks for adding context. There's also sometimes discrepancies between stats on the afl website vs others so it's tough on who to believe. I tend to not rely on the AFL website which you also wisely do.
I know we've been last on 50m penalties differential for years. These are somewhat available on the foxsportslab website but they get updated irregularly so tricky to include. When I did my analysis I didn't include 50m penalties so if they were included, it shows we get shafted even more.
You could add a greater depth by considering each individual match for scoring shots per inside 50 rather than an assumption of 4, but like me, you're probably doing this in your spare time (or at work
so no qualms if you don't.I wish as fans we had more access to champion data stats. A full breakdown of where free kicks are paid, what they're paid for, and by which umpire would be so telling.
Just back from the QEO in Bendigo after watching the senior women’s prelim final.
The free kick count tonight was something Worineen (in yellow and black) 25 to Golden Square 2.
Staggering the amount of yellow and black frees.
Didn’t actually help the Tigers though. They lost!
The free kick count tonight was something Worineen (in yellow and black) 25 to Golden Square 2.
Staggering the amount of yellow and black frees.
Didn’t actually help the Tigers though. They lost!
Well early in q2 at Mineral Resources Paddock, it is 3 50m penalties awarded to Eagles, zero to Tigers.
Nothing changes there then.
So that's where they all went!!! That explains everything. There's obviously a quota, and ours have been designated to the country areas.
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