Prediction Upside: North v Pies

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tiltraise said:
Im simply amazed that nobody rates us.

I think we have as much chance as any team this year but taking a peek at betfair as we speak I notice we are 10th pick in the premiership betting directly behind the Pies at 9th o_O
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You only have to look at the popularity of sides like Collingwood and *essaden in comparison to the Suparoos to realise that the majority of football long folk are straight up morons.
 
Warrboy said:
So am in daily debate at work with a Pies fan who claims Pies will finish higher than North next season. Says Pies have far greater upside than North which will result in North being passed by other teams and missing the 8. We had a similar discussion this time last year which resulted in a bet which resulted in him paying me $100 at the end of the season thanks to our respective ladder positions. He has been silly enough to agree to the same wager for 2016.

He points to the obvious additions in Treloar, Aish and Howe along with the other youngster who gathered game time last year.

I point to the fact he is dealing in the hypothetical and to get a decent trendline you need to look to the recent past (i.e. 2 prelims). As for our potential upside (2014 draftees, hopefully Wells back, NDS uninjured, Brown year 3, Atley looking ready, time in youngsters, Andersen, depth of squad etc) I actually think our upside is going to come from the experience of the past 2 seasons - winning big finals, self-belief, solving those nagging problems we've had for a while (Jacobs as tagger, tougher stance on selection) and, in my opinion, a great draw to allow us to be a great team. I think our season's fortunes (top 4) rest on a good start to the season but either way we'll finish higher than Pies.
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This is the problem when you look at "up side". It is not like Collingwood were playing 3 players short, these players will come in and replace or displace other players. Collingwood's midfield has always been decent, Treloar will definitely be an upgrade but he is likely going to push some dwarf out like Blair who was averaging 15.5 disposals a game and kicked 19 goals and Treloar averaged 27.5 disposals and kicked 14 goals, so you are really talking about a 12 disposal improvement in the midfield on average and someone who is less offensive as Blair. Blair or whomever is going to be displaced isn't going to have the time on ground or opportunity they had so there is an opportunity cost.

Aish struggled to make the Brisbane team and Treloar was in a GWS team that only finished one spot above Collingwood and they had a much superior midfield and forward line to Collingwood, plus there has been the inclusion of Howe, who was a plodder with the odd highlight. So, it is not like they have acquired the type of players from premiership teams that know how to win flags, they got a player from teams finishing 17th, 13th and 11th.

People forget about the opportunity cost, NDS was a big inclusion for us but he displaced Bastinac and now he is gone, he gave us marginally better ball use in the middle but a lot less firepower up forward, I don't think it was a spectacular success for us even though I don't mind NDS.

The reason Higgins has been such a huge boon for us is that nobody can tell who he has displaced, likely it would have been Adams if it wasn't injury related but nobody could tell who our half forward flanks were because nobody performed in those roles consistently.

Waite will be an interesting one for us because he is likely here for a short time and Black/Wood haven't set the world on fire last year making it a selection dilemma. Long-term we will be able to quantify the gain or loss based on success and player development/retention.

I can understand why Collingwood supporters are optimistic, they had 7 losses by 3 goals or less and had 10 wins so there is the potential to turn some of those narrow losses into wins, however, there is no guarantee that some of the teams they had beaten this year will not turn around and beat them next year so prediction is often pissing into the wind.

Realistically, teams only go forward and improve as top 4 teams when the entire group evolve and develops, these inclusions didn't come for free, it cost them players and picks, they have lost Freeman, Seedsman, Kennedy and others. While some might say they are not huge losses, these are the type of players that were talked of as "potential". That is the problem with potential, it often doesn't realise.

Ultimately, results matter.

For us, we have to play consistently and hit round 1 in 2016 like we want to finish top 2, our lethargic starts have been costly for us, if we start 2016 like we ended 2015 then we should push for top 4, I highly doubt Collingwood will be in that bracket. I don't know if we will be but we don't need hail mary improvement like Collingwood does, when you use the term potential then than means hope, it isn't based on any reality of performance or reasonable expectation. You do not make consecutive PFs accidently, and you do not play inconsistent or start poorly accidently either. We have issues to address individually and as a group but our baseline performance level is higher as a whole over recent seasons.

Collingwood needs to show they can play beyond July.
 

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roos rool said:
My mums special friend Terry said that if Collingwood finish higher than North he will eat his hat. I bought him the hat for his birthday so I don't know who to barrack for now.
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If they finish higher than us get him to eat the hat, but when we beat them in finals and go to another prelim and then GF say sorry about that....
 
RobZombie said:
It's really two questions: how do North get better in 2016, and why (or why not) do Collingwood take a big rather than incremental step forward?
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Collingwood is definitely capable of taking a big step next season and becoming a top-4 contender at least. Firstly there aren't any stand-out teams above apart from Hawthorn, and even they were simply just better than the rest this year without ever really looking invincible.

They were also the oldest premiership team ever since 1897, so it's only going to become more difficult for them to stay where they are at their age. They haven't replenished their team with free agents this year either, which has been successful for them recently.

I don't believe any of the other seven finalists are certain of making the finals again next season. Not even West Coast, although they should. It really is very even, so a few teams outside the eight could rise significantly.
RobZombie said:
For Collingwood, they've beefed up their midfield again, effectively covering the loss of Beams with Treloar. So recovering the midfield stocks to the point that got them to 11th in 2014.
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Collingwood lost an unprecedented 470 games through injury in 2013-14, which is a ridiculous number, and it resulted in a thorough investigation of club fitness methods. If any team replicates that injury toll over the next two years, they won't make the finals either.

Despite that injury run, Collingwood made the finals in 2013, and were equal 8th with one match to go in 2014, but a patched-up injury depleted team ended-up finishing only one game out of the finals. The injury toll was better this year, but it was always going to take twelve months to recover from the loss of Dayne Beams.

What hurt the most this year though is losing all of the six matches that were decided by less than 12 points, without winning any of them. Three of them were by less than a goal, and Collingwood were the better team in at least four of those six close losses. It doesn't take much to turn them into wins.
RobZombie said:
Aish is 50/50 to be a significant contributor and they haven't addressed their lack of quality talls.
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Firstly, James Aish will be an A-grader, and he is a 100% chance of being a significant contributor. He has a true footy brain, and always has plenty of time. He is an elite decision maker and ball user on both sides, which is sorely missing when entering the forward 50. His disposal will assist Travis Cloke greatly, and he will find the right option most of the time.

His first season was fabulous, when he finished top-10 in Brisbane's best and fairest, and fourth in AFL Rising Star. He wasn't too bad last year, but his contract drama, and significant finger and jaw injuries didn't help, as well as being played in defence. He is most suited to high half-forward and midfield, and that's where he'll be played next season. He will improve Collingwood immediately.
RobZombie said:
Moore will be another year on but Cloke looks to be tailing off
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Travis Cloke will have a better season next year. He will benefit greatly from the improved ball use inside-50 from Adam Treloar and James Aish. He will also receive assistance from rotating midfielders spending more time forward such as Scott Pendlebury and Dane Swan.

Darcy Moore is capable of taking a big step next year, but if he can maintain his one goal per game average of this year, then that will be a handy second tall option. Collingwood will also look to Jeremy Howe (190cm), Jamie Elliott (178cm), and Alex Fasolo (181cm) at times, along with resting midfielders such as Pendlebury (191cm), Swan, Steele Sidebottom and others to kick more goals.

Hawthorn haven't had quality talls since Buddy Franklin has left, but that hasn't stopped them from winning the last two premierships. Ryan Schoenmakers was their centre half forward in this years Grand Final for goodness sake!

Hawthorn don't rely on quality talls. Jarryd Roughead and Jack Gunston are both only 193cm. Luke Breust is 183cm and Cyril Rioli is 177cm. That's where their goals have come from over the past two seasons. David Hale and Ben McEvoy haven't kicked many goals when they've rested forward.

What makes goal scoring much easier is winning in the midfield. If a team has more inside-50's, and uses the ball well, and finds the right option often when going forward, then they will probably kick more goals than the opposition.

If a team predictably bombs the ball forward to the main key forward who is being double and triple teamed often, then kicking goals becomes more difficult. Hopefully Collingwood's improved midfield will lead to a wider range of scoring options and make the opposition defence more accountable instead of them all manhandling and hanging on to Cloke.
RobZombie said:
and the KPDs are nothing special.
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Nathan Brown has been terrific at full-back! He's only 26 years old, and he's a premiership winning key defender, who is one of the vice-captains, the 2015 best clubman, and he finished 6th in this years Copeland Trophy.

Ben Reid has been missed terribly though over the past two seasons. He's also a 26 year old premiership winning key defender, who finally made it back from injury and performed quite well late this season. Apparently he's in the best shape in years, and has been at the club since the season ended. He was originally a key forward, so he can also be moved forward when needed. He's a potential new recruit.

The best way to help the defence is by also winning in the midfield though, and Collingwood has increased the chances of winning the midfield regularly by adding Adam Treloar and James Aish. It runs very deep now with both inside and outside midfielders.
RobZombie said:
De Goey and Scharenberg would expect to come on but I can't see any other likely breakout players for them. Maybe Grundy, but he still needs help to ruck a whole game.
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Jesse White cops a lot of shit for what he doesn't do, but he had an overall career best season in 2015. He kicked 36 goals in 22 games, which is quite serviceable, and has provided decent ruck relief. Jarrod Witts will play in the ruck sometimes to relieve Brodie Grundy, and Mason Cox has performed well in the ruck and in the forward line in the VFL.

There were six current Collingwood players in the AFL under-24 team of the year squad (Brodie Grundy, Taylor Adams, Marley Williams, Tom Langdon, Jack Crisp, and Adam Treloar) which was the most of all clubs, and ahead of Western Bulldogs with five, and GWS with four. None of the current top-10 draft picks on the list made the squad either, but could in the next few years.

They are Matthew Scharenberg, James Aish, Jordan DeGoey and Darcy Moore. Therefore, Collingwood possibly has the best group of under-24 year olds in the AFL. Only rivaled by Western Bulldogs and GWS.

A breakout season could come from any one of them next year, and maybe even another first rounder from 2013, Tim Broomhead, who has had injury problems, but has shown lots of potential when fit. Many should continue to improve though with more experience and a better fitness base from another pre-season.

Collingwood only has seven players on the list who are between the ages of 24-26. Performances and consistency should improve as more players reach that age group. That said, the current age profile isn't that much different to 2010.

The average age of that premiership team was only 24 years and 57 days, and included 13 players who were under the age of 24. It was the youngest premiership team in 50 years. The Collingwood team next season will be very similar in age, so they should aim high because the competition is so even.
 
No one cares.
 

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KissStephanie said:
Collingwood is definitely capable of taking a big step next season and becoming a top-4 contender at least. Firstly there aren't any stand-out teams above apart from Hawthorn, and even they were simply just better than the rest this year without ever really looking invincible.

They were also the oldest premiership team ever since 1897, so it's only going to become more difficult for them to stay where they are at their age. They haven't replenished their team with free agents this year either, which has been successful for them recently.

I don't believe any of the other seven finalists are certain of making the finals again next season. Not even West Coast, although they should. It really is very even, so a few teams outside the eight could rise significantly.Collingwood lost an unprecedented 470 games through injury in 2013-14, which is a ridiculous number, and it resulted in a thorough investigation of club fitness methods. If any team replicates that injury toll over the next two years, they won't make the finals either.

Despite that injury run, Collingwood made the finals in 2013, and were equal 8th with one match to go in 2014, but a patched-up injury depleted team ended-up finishing only one game out of the finals. The injury toll was better this year, but it was always going to take twelve months to recover from the loss of Dayne Beams.

What hurt the most this year though is losing all of the six matches that were decided by less than 12 points, without winning any of them. Three of them were by less than a goal, and Collingwood were the better team in at least four of those six close losses. It doesn't take much to turn them into wins.Firstly, James Aish will be an A-grader, and he is a 100% chance of being a significant contributor. He has a true footy brain, and always has plenty of time. He is an elite decision maker and ball user on both sides, which is sorely missing when entering the forward 50. His disposal will assist Travis Cloke greatly, and he will find the right option most of the time.

His first season was fabulous, when he finished top-10 in Brisbane's best and fairest, and fourth in AFL Rising Star. He wasn't too bad last year, but his contract drama, and significant finger and jaw injuries didn't help, as well as being played in defence. He is most suited to high half-forward and midfield, and that's where he'll be played next season. He will improve Collingwood immediately.Travis Cloke will have a better season next year. He will benefit greatly from the improved ball use inside-50 from Adam Treloar and James Aish. He will also receive assistance from rotating midfielders spending more time forward such as Scott Pendlebury and Dane Swan.

Darcy Moore is capable of taking a big step next year, but if he can maintain his one goal per game average of this year, then that will be a handy second tall option. Collingwood will also look to Jeremy Howe (190cm), Jamie Elliott (178cm), and Alex Fasolo (181cm) at times, along with resting midfielders such as Pendlebury (191cm), Swan, Steele Sidebottom and others to kick more goals.

Hawthorn haven't had quality talls since Buddy Franklin has left, but that hasn't stopped them from winning the last two premierships. Ryan Schoenmakers was their centre half forward in this years Grand Final for goodness sake!

Hawthorn don't rely on quality talls. Jarryd Roughead and Jack Gunston are both only 193cm. Luke Breust is 183cm and Cyril Rioli is 177cm. That's where their goals have come from over the past two seasons. David Hale and Ben McEvoy haven't kicked many goals when they've rested forward.

What makes goal scoring much easier is winning in the midfield. If a team has more inside-50's, and uses the ball well, and finds the right option often when going forward, then they will probably kick more goals than the opposition.

If a team predictably bombs the ball forward to the main key forward who is being double and triple teamed often, then kicking goals becomes more difficult. Hopefully Collingwood's improved midfield will lead to a wider range of scoring options and make the opposition defence more accountable instead of them all manhandling and hanging on to Cloke.Nathan Brown has been terrific at full-back! He's only 26 years old, and he's a premiership winning key defender, who is one of the vice-captains, the 2015 best clubman, and he finished 6th in this years Copeland Trophy.

Ben Reid has been missed terribly though over the past two seasons. He's also a 26 year old premiership winning key defender, who finally made it back from injury and performed quite well late this season. Apparently he's in the best shape in years, and has been at the club since the season ended. He was originally a key forward, so he can also be moved forward when needed. He's a potential new recruit.

The best way to help the defence is by also winning in the midfield though, and Collingwood has increased the chances of winning the midfield regularly by adding Adam Treloar and James Aish. It runs very deep now with both inside and outside midfielders.Jesse White cops a lot of shit for what he doesn't do, but he had an overall career best season in 2015. He kicked 36 goals in 22 games, which is quite serviceable, and has provided decent ruck relief. Jarrod Witts will play in the ruck sometimes to relieve Brodie Grundy, and Mason Cox has performed well in the ruck and in the forward line in the VFL.

There were six current Collingwood players in the AFL under-24 team of the year squad (Brodie Grundy, Taylor Adams, Marley Williams, Tom Langdon, Jack Crisp, and Adam Treloar) which was the most of all clubs, and ahead of Western Bulldogs with five, and GWS with four. None of the current top-10 draft picks on the list made the squad either, but could in the next few years.

They are Matthew Scharenberg, James Aish, Jordan DeGoey and Darcy Moore. Therefore, Collingwood possibly has the best group of under-24 year olds in the AFL. Only rivaled by Western Bulldogs and GWS.

A breakout season could come from any one of them next year, and maybe even another first rounder from 2013, Tim Broomhead, who has had injury problems, but has shown lots of potential when fit. Many should continue to improve though with more experience and a better fitness base from another pre-season.

Collingwood only has seven players on the list who are between the ages of 24-26. Performances and consistency should improve as more players reach that age group. That said, the current age profile isn't that much different to 2010.

The average age of that premiership team was only 24 years and 57 days, and included 13 players who were under the age of 24. It was the youngest premiership team in 50 years. The Collingwood team next season will be very similar in age, so they should aim high because the competition is so even.
Click to expand...

1 word - gibberish.
 
KissStephanie said:
Collingwood is definitely capable of taking a big step next season and becoming a top-4 contender at least. Firstly there aren't any stand-out teams above apart from Hawthorn, and even they were simply just better than the rest this year without ever really looking invincible.

They were also the oldest premiership team ever since 1897, so it's only going to become more difficult for them to stay where they are at their age. They haven't replenished their team with free agents this year either, which has been successful for them recently.

I don't believe any of the other seven finalists are certain of making the finals again next season. Not even West Coast, although they should. It really is very even, so a few teams outside the eight could rise significantly.Collingwood lost an unprecedented 470 games through injury in 2013-14, which is a ridiculous number, and it resulted in a thorough investigation of club fitness methods. If any team replicates that injury toll over the next two years, they won't make the finals either.

Despite that injury run, Collingwood made the finals in 2013, and were equal 8th with one match to go in 2014, but a patched-up injury depleted team ended-up finishing only one game out of the finals. The injury toll was better this year, but it was always going to take twelve months to recover from the loss of Dayne Beams.

What hurt the most this year though is losing all of the six matches that were decided by less than 12 points, without winning any of them. Three of them were by less than a goal, and Collingwood were the better team in at least four of those six close losses. It doesn't take much to turn them into wins.Firstly, James Aish will be an A-grader, and he is a 100% chance of being a significant contributor. He has a true footy brain, and always has plenty of time. He is an elite decision maker and ball user on both sides, which is sorely missing when entering the forward 50. His disposal will assist Travis Cloke greatly, and he will find the right option most of the time.

His first season was fabulous, when he finished top-10 in Brisbane's best and fairest, and fourth in AFL Rising Star. He wasn't too bad last year, but his contract drama, and significant finger and jaw injuries didn't help, as well as being played in defence. He is most suited to high half-forward and midfield, and that's where he'll be played next season. He will improve Collingwood immediately.Travis Cloke will have a better season next year. He will benefit greatly from the improved ball use inside-50 from Adam Treloar and James Aish. He will also receive assistance from rotating midfielders spending more time forward such as Scott Pendlebury and Dane Swan.

Darcy Moore is capable of taking a big step next year, but if he can maintain his one goal per game average of this year, then that will be a handy second tall option. Collingwood will also look to Jeremy Howe (190cm), Jamie Elliott (178cm), and Alex Fasolo (181cm) at times, along with resting midfielders such as Pendlebury (191cm), Swan, Steele Sidebottom and others to kick more goals.

Hawthorn haven't had quality talls since Buddy Franklin has left, but that hasn't stopped them from winning the last two premierships. Ryan Schoenmakers was their centre half forward in this years Grand Final for goodness sake!

Hawthorn don't rely on quality talls. Jarryd Roughead and Jack Gunston are both only 193cm. Luke Breust is 183cm and Cyril Rioli is 177cm. That's where their goals have come from over the past two seasons. David Hale and Ben McEvoy haven't kicked many goals when they've rested forward.

What makes goal scoring much easier is winning in the midfield. If a team has more inside-50's, and uses the ball well, and finds the right option often when going forward, then they will probably kick more goals than the opposition.

If a team predictably bombs the ball forward to the main key forward who is being double and triple teamed often, then kicking goals becomes more difficult. Hopefully Collingwood's improved midfield will lead to a wider range of scoring options and make the opposition defence more accountable instead of them all manhandling and hanging on to Cloke.Nathan Brown has been terrific at full-back! He's only 26 years old, and he's a premiership winning key defender, who is one of the vice-captains, the 2015 best clubman, and he finished 6th in this years Copeland Trophy.

Ben Reid has been missed terribly though over the past two seasons. He's also a 26 year old premiership winning key defender, who finally made it back from injury and performed quite well late this season. Apparently he's in the best shape in years, and has been at the club since the season ended. He was originally a key forward, so he can also be moved forward when needed. He's a potential new recruit.

The best way to help the defence is by also winning in the midfield though, and Collingwood has increased the chances of winning the midfield regularly by adding Adam Treloar and James Aish. It runs very deep now with both inside and outside midfielders.Jesse White cops a lot of shit for what he doesn't do, but he had an overall career best season in 2015. He kicked 36 goals in 22 games, which is quite serviceable, and has provided decent ruck relief. Jarrod Witts will play in the ruck sometimes to relieve Brodie Grundy, and Mason Cox has performed well in the ruck and in the forward line in the VFL.

There were six current Collingwood players in the AFL under-24 team of the year squad (Brodie Grundy, Taylor Adams, Marley Williams, Tom Langdon, Jack Crisp, and Adam Treloar) which was the most of all clubs, and ahead of Western Bulldogs with five, and GWS with four. None of the current top-10 draft picks on the list made the squad either, but could in the next few years.

They are Matthew Scharenberg, James Aish, Jordan DeGoey and Darcy Moore. Therefore, Collingwood possibly has the best group of under-24 year olds in the AFL. Only rivaled by Western Bulldogs and GWS.

A breakout season could come from any one of them next year, and maybe even another first rounder from 2013, Tim Broomhead, who has had injury problems, but has shown lots of potential when fit. Many should continue to improve though with more experience and a better fitness base from another pre-season.

Collingwood only has seven players on the list who are between the ages of 24-26. Performances and consistency should improve as more players reach that age group. That said, the current age profile isn't that much different to 2010.

The average age of that premiership team was only 24 years and 57 days, and included 13 players who were under the age of 24. It was the youngest premiership team in 50 years. The Collingwood team next season will be very similar in age, so they should aim high because the competition is so even.
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Didnt-Read-George-Clooney-Tldr-GIF.gif
 
Morganashlee said:
I stopped reading at this bit ...


Just ... no :thumbsdown:

Having been a lower side we obviously have more upside, then again you could improve by taking the next step and beating us for once ;)
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Gee they're coming out of the woodwork now aren't they :p

I'm sure the club are focused on taking that giant step in the same way that Man United are focused on rectifying their horrible loss to MK Dons ;)
 
NorthernLights said:
Gee they're coming out of the woodwork now aren't they :p

I'm sure the club are focused on taking that giant step in the same way that Man United are focused on rectifying their horrible loss to MK Dons ;)
Click to expand...
Every little bit helps ;)

You should use that line as your sponsorship slogan, you can thank me later :rainbow:

I'll see myself out ...
 
NorthernLights said:
Not a fan of "#GetREAL"?
Click to expand...
300315_CunningtonLarge.jpg


It's not too late to change to my suggestion :$
 
Carlton when they weren't useless invested heavily in the midfield and didn't put resources into KPD stocks, while Collingwood are better placed then they were IMO, I think they've hamstrung their ability to compliment the team in the short to medium term.

A lot of the guys they brought in of the ilk like Greenwood/Aish are on above market value coin, and while very handy I'm not sure have the ability to take them far enough to contend, guys like Pendlebury and Sidebottom etc still have plenty of years left in them.

Any benefit of Cloke and and Swan retiring will be offset by the younger guys they have now putting their hand out for more cash as they all come on at the same time.

Meanwhile while we may be a player or two short of a flag, we will have a lot of cap space moving on when they all leave around the same time, so will have the ability to compliment they young core we still have after they are gone.

Irrespective of this thread, I'm optimistic about our future, if Collingwood passes us, it may be a year or two at best.
 

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Prediction Upside: North v Pies

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