Incorrect. Immigration has.
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Very good news about the economy
- Thread starter Doctor Jolly
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Incorrect. Immigration has.
you fail again. you can have all the immigration in the world but if the consumption is not there it doesn't matter.
in our case the govt stimulated this consumption. Its pretty simple, even somebody with your low level of comprehension should be able to get it.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/woolies-braces-for-life-without-governments-economic-stimulus/story-e6frg8zx-1225872274612
"Over the last eight months we knew that we would be up against challenging times," Mr Luscombe said yesterday. "We now have to work our way through to October-November before it washes through the economy."
He said the stimulus package saved and protected many retail jobs and it was only a year later that retailers realised the significance and benefits of the package."
Consumption came via immigration!
GDP per head declined for a number of consecutive quarters.
The only thing stopping negative growth was immigration.
That is an inescapable fact.
Just another fanboy cheerleading short term measures which will do long term damage to Australia.
I wonder if those gold plated boom gates are still shiny? They may want someone to touch them up. Brilliant idea, it will create employment.
Gee you really dont have much of a clue do you.
It is an inescapable fact that the govt stimulus worked, every economist with half a clue has acknowledged it.
Hell even that arch enemy of the govt Ross Gittins agrees
http://www.smh.com.au/business/staying-on-target-needs-steady-hands-20100608-xtsm.html
in truth, the credit for this goes primarily to the economy itself. What went down has – predictably – come back up. If any particular politicians deserve to share the credit it is Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan with their huge and timely fiscal stimulus (not forgetting the role of the central bankers in slashing interest rates).
Even if you believe in fairies and think the stimulus worked you can not claimed it stopped negative growth ex immigration. If so GDP per head numbers would be positive. Thus your argument fails on that level alone.
As for the wonders of fiscal stimulus Treasury has been badly caught out spreading propaganda.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news...-1225875251275
TREASURY has been forced to withdraw a budget graph that overstated the effects on growth of fiscal stimulus spending across the G20 after a senior academic raised questions about its accuracy.
..
The executive director of Treasury's macro-economic group, David Gruen, said Professor Davidson was correct.
"To summarise, then, as Professor Davidson has pointed out, there is no statistically significant relationship for the 19 G20 countries, in 2009, between the size of the fiscal stimulus, as a percent of GDP, and the extent to which actual GDP growth exceeded the IMF April 2009 forecast," Dr Gruen said
That's been posted before.... and ignored, surprisingly.
There are a lot of indications that the economy has peaked for now and is now in decline. Retail, new homes, business and consumer confidence are all trending down.
The one plus was mining but investment activity is looking shakey.
Economy needed to slow to keep interest rates down, will be interesting to see how it turns out.
The one plus was mining but investment activity is looking shakey.
Economy needed to slow to keep interest rates down, will be interesting to see how it turns out.
We need a pause from rate increases until at least Nov to bring this sucker back into line.
The business investment survey will be the key. Most of the major growth was coming from mining investment and the last survey was extremely strong. Problem is, it was done just before the Henry Tax review and another one is not due until Sept.
This growth was needed to take up the slack from the wind down of the Govt stimulus so if it does not come through it may create a hole in growth.
Some funny stuff going on, retailers are really struggling yet the shipping lines are fully booked for the next 3 months and China is trying to add capacity to get more stuff here. Good time for sales!
We are a funny economy right about now - consumer confidence and retail figures are taking a hit because of rate increases. The Australian Consumer has proven that they are fairly ignorant of global economic failings and thus continue to buoy the economy. I find it infinitely amusing that retail are feeling the pinch - the one section of the economy that benefited the most from RBA drops and cash splashes - everyone else hurts but these guys continue (and then bleat and moan about the interest rate increases.
Number of people i know in small business are all saying it has gone really quiet in the last month. I think overall it is very fragile at the moment, the one sector that was bullish and confident has had serious hurdles put in front of it.
Should point out that some leaked chinese data indicates that they are still growing strongly which will help.
I think we are still 12 months away from any normalcy - liquidity within financial markets are still relatively tight and despite the best efforts of the AOFM, RMBS margins are still volatile given the european connection. We may not be effected greatly by this - but it takes a couple more hits before the RBA begin to drop rates (as opposed to the positive curve right now). Everyone has spent their stimulus - now we may have to face the cruel reality that you may not be able to avoid the inevitable.
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Haha - well - will we soon have the line "recession we had to have" levied at us?
****! After my previous efforts I am not touching that one!
Aww come on - you know you want to. But of course - downplaying our economy is Kevin's job not yours.
It's weird as hell.
Last half of April first half of May was quite solid, but the last 3 weeks have been flat as Keira Knightley again.
More good news. Unemployment nationally has stayed at the same figure that it was 3 months ago. Swan >>>> Costello.
Hmmm maybe Glenn Stevens >>>>>>>> Swan and Costello
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- #45
One of two things are happening here:
1) You are right, and the whole world is wrong
or
2) You are wrong, and the rest of the world is right.
I suspect you and morgoth have this feeling quite often. Your extremist right wing views just dont correlate with reality. Morgoth has embarrased himself in two high-profile debates on bigfooty that I know of. The first being the 08/09 period being worse than the great depression. And the 2nd being that the AFL TV rights will go backwards with the next deal. I shudder to imagine what famous predictions Ive missed.
Feeling weird is par for the course on your side of politics.
I haven't been contributing to this forum for long, but to call me an extremist right winger is laughable - if I was on here prior to the election, you'd know that I opposed WorkChoices, and was initially cautiously optimistic about Rudd. Unfortunately the cautious part of that emotion was the correct one. Unlike yourself, I don't blindly follow the stupid policies put forward by 'my' side because it's fit my ideology.
I don't know what you do DJ, but go speak to one of the Directors of your marketing agency and ask them how the retail sector has been for the last 6 months, it's definitely rebounded from last year, but it's still quite erratic. Our industry normally has the most predictable peaks and troughs you could hope for, yet, this last 6-12 months, they've changed completely, as have a lot of others.
I wasn't commenting on the global economy, I was commenting on the state of things within my industry and a number of others that I either deal with directly, or have knowledge of. That said, the global economy is still shakey, or are you ignoring what's going on in Europe at present?
I'm not sure what morgoth has to do with the post you quoted, if you want to have a little argument with him, feel free.
Feeling weird might be par for the course for my side of politics, but I'd still prefer it to the smug pretention of yours.
It is not a feeling DJ. The data is jumbled. For every good bit of data there is some negative stuff. Quite normal after a major shock to the system.
I'm assuming english is not your first language and thus you have trouble explaining yourself.
Here it is again, for the umpteenth time. The stimulus worked. It kept australia out of recession.
Any halfwit, or quarter wit in your case would see that.
Its a pretty simple concept, what part of it do you not understand?
http://www.smh.com.au/business/economy-still-reliant-on-stimulus-spending-20100602-wztm.html
As for treasury allegedly misleading re stimulus benefits, perhaps you missed this;
http://www.treasury.gov.au/documents/1822/HTML/docshell.asp?URL=Cross_Country_Analysis_of_Economic_Growth_and_Fiscal_Stimulus.htm
To summarise, then, as Professor Davidson has pointed out, there is no statistically significant relationship for the 19 G-20 countries, in 2009, between the size of the fiscal stimulus, as a per cent of GDP, and the extent to which actual GDP growth exceeded the IMF April 2009 forecast. For the more closely comparable 26 OECD countries that applied fiscal stimulus in 2009, however, there is a statistically significant relationship, with those countries that applied more stimulus significantly outperforming forecasts relative to those countries that did less. The US Council of Economic Advisors has arrived at a similar conclusion, using different economic forecasts and different samples of countries.
give it up and give it a rest.
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- #49
Interesting that you chose to ignore the response to the Treasury response
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/treasury-withdraws-exaggerated-graph/story-e6frg6nf-1225875251275
Give it up Dip and give it a rest ... you are completely out of your depth. I almost feel pity.
Or what part of this do you fail to understand...
A similar analysis, conducted by the US Council of Economic Advisers, but using different forecasts, and examining June quarter 2009 forecast errors, also found statistically significant relationships between fiscal stimulus and the extent to which economic outcomes exceeded forecasts
You do realise the IPA is a liberal think tank? Fool.
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