Mega Thread VICBias - Genuine Discussion Part 2

[The_Wookie]

So the answer is yes, the Pies would get something big out of it. Not going to grow the game or help the league out.

Sellout games at Carrara featuring the Suns/Lions can only be good for the game visually, not to mention in terms of hype. Its one of those win-win things I think.

 

[Purple Suit]

Would check your numbers.

There are 104 300 gamers, 24 of them retired in the 80s of earlier.

So only 80 played any footy in the 1990s, you list 83.

And of the 80 that includes guys like Tuck, Madden (s), Watson, T.Shaw who barely played any footy in the 90s but you would include in your VIC numbers.

Obvious inflation considering they had retired before Port and Freo even joined the competition.

If doing any sensible comparison you would only bother to include players who debuted 1987 or later, when WC and Brisbane came in.

There have been 33 players reach the 300 game mark who only played for Vic teams since 1897 (an average of 3.3) per club.

Myth busted, it appears if you want a long career travelling every second week has no impact.

I moved the start date out to 2000. It removed 9 from vic and two from mixed. Therefore includes 13 years of interstate teams and it has to stretch across a long period of time for better data.

Remember that WA clubs have had the most games out of all the interstate teams since SA debuted afterwards and GC & GWS a lot later.

Chris Langford

Tim Watson

Roger Merrett

Tony Shaw

Terry Daniher

Justin Madden

David Cloke

Doug Hawkins

Paul Roos

Simon Madden

Michael Tuck

The new figures are

QLD based - 3
NSW based - 5
Vic Based - 43 (4.3 average per club)
SA Based - 7
WA Based - 3
Mixed - 12 (more than 50 games in another state, none of these were a mix with WA. Usually NSW & QLD).

It drops the Vic numbers to 4.3 per club as moving between clubs still counts. This is still a lot more than any other club and is a fair indication that things are easier in Victoria on players longevity.

 

[sr36]

The interstate teams would show this thread though. WA has more games than SA, NSW & QLD but less players to 300 games. My reference point might affect Vic teams but not 3-4 times that of WA.

One thing I have noticed is the amount of players who change clubs. These do not show up in the 300 game list for clubs but if you play 150 games for two vic teams, you have still done it. No one has played more than 50 games for a WA club and played 300 games besides Pav, Mundy & Hurn.

Your dates are weighting it.

NSW are the equivalent of Vic - as Sydney have had the same opportunity in the same time frame and running at the same average of 5 - GWS aren't relevant yet - the other states can't be compared due to the dates used.

Freo players for example have had a fair bit less than half the opportunity to play 300 in that timeframe - Vic players could have hit it any time since 1990 - Freo players only since about 2010.

In your mixed list for example - you'd need to cross out Roger Merrett, Alastair Lynch, Wanganeen, Paul Williams, Shannon Grant, Paul Roos to get a comparison with Freo, as they wouldn't have played 300 for Freo due to when their careers were. Grant could have gotten close as he debuted the same year as Freo - except 20 of his games were finals, so he would have had to go on another season for Freo.

That's close to half your mixed players. And most of the others you'd need to cross out for decent comparison will be Vic or NSW players.

I'd also suggest that due to the very small sample size per club, you'd be better off using a 250 game cut off. It'd also give you a longer sample.

 

[sr36]

I moved the start date out to 2000. It removed 9 from vic and two from mixed. Therefore includes 13 years of interstate teams and it has to stretch across a long period of time for better data.

Remember that WA clubs have had the most games out of all the interstate teams since SA debuted afterwards and GC & GWS a lot later.

Chris Langford

Tim Watson

Roger Merrett

Tony Shaw

Terry Daniher

Justin Madden

David Cloke

Doug Hawkins

Paul Roos

Simon Madden

Michael Tuck

The new figures are

QLD based - 3
NSW based - 5
Vic Based - 43 (4.3 average per club)
SA Based - 7
WA Based - 3
Mixed - 12 (more than 50 games in another state, none of these were a mix with WA. Usually NSW & QLD).

It drops the Vic numbers to 4.3 per club as moving between clubs still counts. This is still a lot more than any other club and is a fair indication that things are easier in Victoria on players longevity.

Got to move it to 2010 if you want to include Port and Freo. And then remember that NSW and QLD only have 1 relevant club each for this comparison.

The Vic average of 4.3 for that time frame isn't more than other clubs - it's less than Sydney's 5.

And even if you do go with 2010 you'll have some Vic clubs who probably have none and some with 1 like WCE, so the data won't show you anything anyway because the sample sizes are too small. Particularly with other factors at play. Mick Malthouse's players didn't have particularly long careers at Collingwood or WCE - they played hard and partied hard and burnt brightly, but not for as long as at some other clubs.

 

[greatwhiteshark]

Yes every club agrees that travel is not equal between teams.

The WA fans seem to think that all teams should travel the same, a nonsense.

They campaign for extra games in WA to balance out the "travel".

Because they completely disregard that the biggest factor is not travel but ground advantage.

Carlton playing 17 games in Melbourne doesnt give them a home advantage in 17 games. This year Carlton only has 4 games where they get any real ground advantage against their opponent, and they cop 5 where they face a ground disadvantage.

But WC fans think that Carlton should be forced to play an extra game in WA against Freo or WC to make it "fair".

I don’t think that.

 

[greatwhiteshark]

Yes every club agrees that travel is not equal between teams.

The WA fans seem to think that all teams should travel the same, a nonsense.

They campaign for extra games in WA to balance out the "travel".

Because they completely disregard that the biggest factor is not travel but ground advantage.

Carlton playing 17 games in Melbourne doesnt give them a home advantage in 17 games. This year Carlton only has 4 games where they get any real ground advantage against their opponent, and they cop 5 where they face a ground disadvantage.

But WC fans think that Carlton should be forced to play an extra game in WA against Freo or WC to make it "fair".

But if a vic club did ask to play a game in Perth instead of at home, why would the AFL deny it? Doesn’t make any sense.

 

[greatwhiteshark]

Sellout games at Carrara featuring the Suns/Lions can only be good for the game visually, not to mention in terms of hype. Its one of those win-win things I think.

Who is going to play Collingwood in these two extra games at Carrara?

 

[Freshwater]

This year Bulldogs play twice at the MCG, but 3 times at the Adelaide Oval! Yet if we qualify for finals as the ‘home’ team, we have to play it at the MCG!

 

[sr36]

You think they the Pies are doing this out of generosity or you reckon they might get something out of it from head office?

No club will give away to Melbourne games without some benefit for themselves, and being that it is Collingwood there will be something major in it for them

Pies don't like the marvel home games. They're trying to sell one them for money. But also we want to be Manchester United and have a fan base beyond location. We're after a bigger slice of the Gold Coast supporter market. The plan is to play an away game up there against Gold Coast - stay the week - do some promotion - and then play a home game against a Vic team up there. Plus the winds are blowing for changes to travel with more for Vic clubs - we're trying to get it on our terms. You guys should love it - an extra interstate game for Collingwood and another Vic club.

 

[doppleganger]

33 players who were 1 club people. What about someone who moved between Vic clubs? Did you count those?

I'd check your numbers, we have had a few players hit 300 games this year so it is increasing.

Taken from AFL tables, so is current as it lists Pendles as 400 games and includes Dusty on 302.

Follows your approach to include players who only played for VIC clubs - ie Goddard and Dal Santo are included - but mixed are not ie H.Shaw.

If making debut 1987 or later, to align with WC and BB entry, 33 players have reached the mark having solely played for Vic clubs.

 

[doppleganger]

But if a vic club did ask to play a game in Perth instead of at home, why would the AFL deny it? Doesn’t make any sense.

That was another thing that happened with the mid 2000s review.

Melbourne were no longer allowed to sell a home game and play Brisbane at the GABBA

North no longer allowed to sell home games to play Sydney in Sydney.

If Melbourne clubs were selling had to be at neutral venues.

So it North for would need to sell a North v Port game as an example if they wanted it in Perth.

 

[SC_Power]

If the top 4 teams in 4 weeks are non Victorian is this thread dead?

Maybe if that happen for 14 of the next 16 years…..

 

[sr36]

33 players who were 1 club people. What about someone who moved between Vic clubs? Did you count those?

I'd check your numbers, we have had a few players hit 300 games this year so it is increasing.

Counting them but not counting guys who have moved to or between non-vic clubs will further skew your data towards Vic.

 

[doppleganger]

Who is going to play Collingwood in these two extra games at Carrara?

Our opponents who we play us away at Marvel.

We always play 2 home games at Marvel

1 against a Marvel tenant - StK, WB or NM
1 against a non-vic team - WC, PA etc.

So shift 1 (or eventually both) of them up to Gold Coast.

 

[doppleganger]

I moved the start date out to 2000. It removed 9 from vic and two from mixed. Therefore includes 13 years of interstate teams and it has to stretch across a long period of time for better data.

Remember that WA clubs have had the most games out of all the interstate teams since SA debuted afterwards and GC & GWS a lot later.

Chris Langford

Tim Watson

Roger Merrett

Tony Shaw

Terry Daniher

Justin Madden

David Cloke

Doug Hawkins

Paul Roos

Simon Madden

Michael Tuck

The new figures are

QLD based - 3
NSW based - 5
Vic Based - 43 (4.3 average per club)
SA Based - 7
WA Based - 3
Mixed - 12 (more than 50 games in another state, none of these were a mix with WA. Usually NSW & QLD).

It drops the Vic numbers to 4.3 per club as moving between clubs still counts. This is still a lot more than any other club and is a fair indication that things are easier in Victoria on players longevity.

No idea what you are doing with your stats.

If you set debut to 2000 (no idea why you would bother to pick 2000 for debut?) there have been 37 300 gamers in total.

Of the 37, only 20 played solely for VIC clubs.

 

[doppleganger]

I moved the start date out to 2000. It removed 9 from vic and two from mixed. Therefore includes 13 years of interstate teams and it has to stretch across a long period of time for better data.

There have been 65 players debut between 1987 and 2010, a 24 season span that aligns with expansion, who have played 300 games.

That starts from Nathan Burke, and includes Dusty who was the most recent debutant to make it to 300. No player who debuted in 2011 onwards has made 300, Jack Darling is the 2011 debutant who is closest on 295 games.

Noting that in 1987, VIC clubs made up 80% of competing teams. Across the 24 seasons, VIC clubs account for 67% of actual playing teams (and non-vic 33%)

Of the 65 players to make 300, 33 solely played for VIC based teams (50%), 16 played solely for non-vic (25%) and 16 played a mix (25%).

Remove the 16 mixed, and you are left with 67% of 300 gamers from vic and 33% from non-vic clubs. The proportion aligns with the actual distribution of clubs who were competing.

The myth that playing in vic and not travelling prolongs a career is just that, a myth not supported by any actual numbers.

 

[Purple Suit]

No idea what you are doing with your stats.

If you set debut to 2000 (no idea why you would bother to pick 2000 for debut?) there have been 37 300 gamers in total.

Of the 37, only 20 played solely for VIC clubs.

I didn’t say debut, I said if they were playing in 2000 or later. That’s 14 seasons since 1987 so enough time to play 300 if you were a freak in a team that didn’t play finals.

No matter what you do, the data shows that WA has had the least by far, Victoria the most. It’s not a trick or furphy. More data points would be great though, let’s get WA3 happening ASAP.

 

[greatwhiteshark]

Our opponents who we play us away at Marvel.

We always play 2 home games at Marvel

1 against a Marvel tenant - StK, WB or NM
1 against a non-vic team - WC, PA etc.

So shift 1 (or eventually both) of them up to Gold Coast.

Well if I was West coast I would say don’t choose us, we want to play at marvel. Get Collingwood to take vic clubs up there. Why would we help Collingwood make a dollar?
Send Richmond up there to help you.

 

[sr36]

I moved the start date out to 2000. It removed 9 from vic and two from mixed. Therefore includes 13 years of interstate teams and it has to stretch across a long period of time for better data.

Remember that WA clubs have had the most games out of all the interstate teams since SA debuted afterwards and GC & GWS a lot later.

Chris Langford

Tim Watson

Roger Merrett

Tony Shaw

Terry Daniher

Justin Madden

David Cloke

Doug Hawkins

Paul Roos

Simon Madden

Michael Tuck

The new figures are

QLD based - 3
NSW based - 5
Vic Based - 43 (4.3 average per club)
SA Based - 7
WA Based - 3
Mixed - 12 (more than 50 games in another state, none of these were a mix with WA. Usually NSW & QLD).

It drops the Vic numbers to 4.3 per club as moving between clubs still counts. This is still a lot more than any other club and is a fair indication that things are easier in Victoria on players longevity.

OK I bothered to look at the data.

Below are the blokes by club who've debuted since 1997 when Port entered and have played 300 - I also included the bolded who debuted a bit earlier, but played 300 within the relevant period. Two 300 players is the median per club - the outliers are high not low and not surprisingly they represent some of the eras great teams.

Rather than showing vicbias, it probably shows why the particular vic teams won so many of the flags - they had more great players:

Geelong with 5 300 gamers plus lots of games from a couple of the mixed in GAz and Danger
Hawks with 3 300 gamers plus lots of games from a couple of the mixed in Franklin and Burgoyne
Richmond 4 300 gamers - who all peaked together

There's 11 of the 15 out of 17 flags.

Geel 5 Hawkins Selwood Enright Bartel Kelly

Rich 4 Riewoldt Cotchin Edwards Dusty

Haw 3 Hodge Mitchell Lewis

North 3 Harvey Petrie Goldstein

Stk 3 Riewoldt Goddard delsanto

Syd 3 Goodes McVeigh Bolton

Port 2 Boak Kornes

Dogs 2 Johnson Murphy

Carlton 2 Simpson Murphy

Adel 2 McLeod Edwards

Collingwood 2 Pendles Steele

Freo 2 Mundy Pavlich

WCE 1 Hurn

Bris 1 Black

Melb 1 Jones

Essendon 1 Fletcher

Mixed Burgoyne Gaz Franklin Betts Dangerfield H Shaw Aker Thompson

 

[Purple Suit]

OK I bothered to look at the data.

Below are the blokes by club who've debuted since 1997 when Port entered and have played 300 - I also included the bolded who debuted a bit earlier, but played 300 within the relevant period. Two 300 players is the median per club - the outliers are high not low and not surprisingly they represent some of the eras great teams.

Rather than showing vicbias, it probably shows why the particular vic teams won so many of the flags - they had more great players:

Geelong with 5 300 gamers plus lots of games from a couple of the mixed in GAz and Danger
Hawks with 3 300 gamers plus lots of games from a couple of the mixed in Franklin and Burgoyne
Richmond 4 300 gamers - who all peaked together

There's 11 of the 15 out of 17 flags.

Geel 5 Hawkins Selwood Enright Bartel Kelly

Rich 4 Riewoldt Cotchin Edwards Dusty

Haw 3 Hodge Mitchell Lewis

North 3 Harvey Petrie Goldstein

Stk 3 Riewoldt Goddard delsanto

Syd 3 Goodes McVeigh Bolton

Port 2 Boak Kornes

Dogs 2 Johnson Murphy

Carlton 2 Simpson Murphy

Adel 2 McLeod Edwards

Collingwood 2 Pendles Steele

Freo 2 Mundy Pavlich

WCE 1 Hurn

Bris 1 Black

Melb 1 Jones

Essendon 1 Fletcher

Mixed Burgoyne Gaz Franklin Betts Dangerfield H Shaw Aker Thompson

Why start in 97? Start in 87 when you have 3 teams in each state besides vic & Adelaide starting not long afterwards.

My point is WA had 2 teams first, therefore we should have the most of interstate teams, not least.

 

[doppleganger]

I didn’t say debut, I said if they were playing in 2000 or later. That’s 14 seasons since 1987 so enough time to play 300 if you were a freak in a team that didn’t play finals.

No matter what you do, the data shows that WA has had the least by far, Victoria the most. It’s not a trick or furphy. More data points would be great though, let’s get WA3 happening ASAP.

Of course we have had the most, as if you are including players who debuted before 1987 - 92% of the teams were VIC based.

So would expect 90% of players who debuted in the 1980s to make it to 300 games to be VIC based.

The distribution of 300 gamers IS aligned to distribution of competing teams.

 

[doppleganger]

Well if I was West coast I would say don’t choose us, we want to play at marvel. Get Collingwood to take vic clubs up there. Why would we help Collingwood make a dollar?
Send Richmond up there to help you.

Why do West Coast fans think they should be able to dictate where they play their away games?

Collingwood would play either a marvel tenant or a non-vic team on the Gold Coast, as these are the games we are forced to play at Marvel now.

 

[greatwhiteshark]

Why do West Coast fans think they should be able to dictate where they play their away games?

Collingwood would play either a marvel tenant or a non-vic team on the Gold Coast, as these are the games we are forced to play at Marvel now.

Why do Collingwood think they should be able to dictate where they play their home games? You are a Melbourne team so play your games in Melbourne and maybe actually try to fill up Marvel stadium for once.

 

[sr36]

Why start in 97? Start in 87 when you have 3 teams in each state besides vic & Adelaide starting not long afterwards.

My point is WA had 2 teams first, therefore we should have the most of interstate teams, not least.

If you start it earlier, you'd have to do weighting calculations to include Port and Freo. Plus as you've pointed out the earlier periods are less refelctive due to less professional.

Both Freo and WCE fit very clearly into the standard deviation by club. The outliers are high - they're the teams who won all the flags.

And let's face it, WCE would have more if it wasn't for circumstances - as would Collingwood. Mick's boys burnt out quicker at both WCE and Collingwood. They ran through walls for him and then took injections to keep running through walls when there bodies weren't right. And then got really pissed after the game - and then the ice didn't help under Worsfold.

 

[Purple Suit]

If you start it earlier, you'd have to do weighting calculations to include Port and Freo. Plus as you've pointed out the earlier periods are less refelctive due to less professional.

Both Freo and WCE fit very clearly into the standard deviation by club. The outliers are high - they're the teams who won all the flags. And let's face it, WCE would have more if it wasn't for circumstances - as would Collingwood. Mick's boys burnt out quicker at both WCE and Collingwood. They ran through walls for him and then took injections to keep running through walls when there bodies weren't right. And then got really pissed after the game - and then the ice didn't help under Worsfold.

You just want to cut out a third of the data to close the gap. Now you are adding in highly subjective crap about injections.

NSW & QLD only have 1 team for 2/3rds of the timeframe yet they are still infront of WA.

Of course we have had the most, as if you are including players who debuted before 1987 - 92% of the teams were VIC based.

So would expect 90% of players who debuted in the 1980s to make it to 300 games to be VIC based.

The distribution of 300 gamers IS aligned to distribution of competing teams.

It’s not the 1980’s, it’s playing in 2000 which is 14 season past 1987. It’s also averaged so it doesn’t matter if you have the most, as long as you have less per team. Vic has by far the highest average & the least amount of travel.

Do you also think we are doing crap in the Olympics since we are behind USA & China or do you take per capita into account when judging stuff?