Mega Thread VICBias - Genuine Discussion Part 2

[sr36]

Using Port to prove anything is fraught with danger. It's like using St Kilda or Gold Coast or Freo.

We have been hearing about all the enormous home and away travel benefits the Vic clubs get.

But do you think that team could possibly finish second on the ladder if they were significantly disadvantaged in the home and away season? And it's not a one off.

 

[doppleganger]

Using Port to prove anything is fraught with danger. It's like using St Kilda or Gold Coast or Freo

What about 25 years of H&A results and a ladder that shows non-Melbourne teams dominate top2 and top4 positions?

Unsurprising when AFL House policy reduced home ground advantage for one set of teams, those based in Melbourne.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

We have been hearing about all the enormous home and away travel benefits the Vic clubs get.

But do you think that team could possibly finish second on the ladder if they were significantly disadvantaged in the home and away season? And it's not a one off.

I'm not sure, how many times does a team lose a home final and how many times does it involve Port?

I can only think of one time the Eagles lost a home qualifying final, and that was the year we went on to win it all.

We did lose two "home" finals in Melbourne though. Good times.

 

[sr36]

I'm not sure, how many times does a team lose a home final and how many times does it involve Port?

I can only think of one time the Eagles lost a home qualifying final, and that was the year we went on to win it all.

We did lose two "home" finals in Melbourne though. Good times.

Just looking through. Happens most years. Not like that though. Here's the recent home state advantage finals losses

2024 Port
2023 st Kilda elimination Port semi
2022 Melbourne lost 2 home finals
2021 Brisbane home semi
2020 Port and Brisbane lost home prelims. WCE lost elimination
2019 Brisbane lost back to back home finals, Collingwood lost a home prelim
2017 Port elimination
2016 WCE elimination GWS and Geel prelim

11-5 to NonVic - Vic teams. Certainly not what you'd expect if the Vic teams had an advantaged run to the finals. But it's looking more like it's the non Vic teams who are more likely to not be as good as their ladder position.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

You forgot Collingwood 2018

 

[sr36]

You forgot Collingwood 2018

Will never forget that one. Nearly included it, but it doesn't fit the bill. As we finished lower - ladder position suggested we weren't as good.

The others are situations where the higher ladder position with a home state advantage lost. NV are dominating - wouldnt seem likely if they are actually disadvantaged in home and away.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

Will never forget that one. Nearly included it, but it doesn't fit the bill. As we finished lower - ladder position suggested we weren't as good.

Wasn't there a dumb multi-page debate just recently where people were arguing that because Collingwood beat Richmond that made them the number one seed?

 

[Bagger72]

#VICBIAS

 

[Chronz]

I've seen enough. It's going to be an all Vic grand final.

 

[Freomaniac]

When you say 'perfectly timed' are you implying they did something to help the Vics?

How did they make the Cats come good the same year as the inquest and the Hawks the year after?

Sad thing is the cats will win the 2024 flag lol

 

[Freomaniac]

We need stop the biased H&A fixture from gifting mediocre non-Melbourne teams top4 spots.

Time to give small Melbourne teams like StK,WB,NM,ESS and Carl a fighting chance at ever playing in a QF, let alone a GF.

you were right all along. Victorian teams are disadvantaged.

The Victorian sides are racially Superior. Even the Geelong Hillbillys and the victorians that live in the lower dregs of suburbs like Frankston are racially superior to the non vic sides. lol

 

[doppleganger]

Just looking through. Happens most years. Not like that though. Here's the recent home state advantage finals losses

2024 Port
2023 st Kilda elimination Port semi
2022 Melbourne lost 2 home finals
2021 Brisbane home semi
2020 Port and Brisbane lost home prelims. WCE lost elimination
2019 Brisbane lost back to back home finals, Collingwood lost a home prelim
2017 Port elimination
2016 WCE elimination GWS and Geel prelim

11-5 to NonVic - Vic teams. Certainly not what you'd expect if the Vic teams had an advantaged run to the finals. But it's looking more like it's the non Vic teams who are more likely to not be as good as their ladder position.

Bit rich including StKilda, they didnt get to play a game at their home ground.

Sydney get to play Giants at the SCG, but Saints had their game against the Giants played at the G so could get a bigger crowd, despite their home Marvel being able to host more than the SCG

Just more VICBias.

 

[peetoo]

Sad thing is the cats will win the 2024 flag lol

About time another team challenged hawthorns 5 afl flags (we won’t mention the three in five years before that 86-89)

 

[sr36]

Bit rich including StKilda, they didnt get to play a game at their home ground.

Sydney get to play Giants at the SCG, but Saints had their game against the Giants played at the G so could get a bigger crowd, despite their home Marvel being able to host more than the SCG

Just more VICBias.

I'm really just looking at the travel being a big disadvantage during H&A theory.

Basically, the theory is that travelling every second week and then having a home game against a travelling opponent every second week is a big disadvantage.

If that was the case, the Non-Vic teams would be ranked lower on the ladder than they deserve - they'd have to be significantly better than a Vic team to finish 2nd on the ladder and get a home final against them. They'd then get the home ground advantage on top of already being better and thus you'd expect them to very rarely lose their home finals.

It's not the case though, Non-Vic teams at the moment are more likely to lose their home finals against a travelling team. Over the time frame I could be bothered looking, they've lost twice as many - and without checking - I'd be willing to bet they have hosted less, so their home state advantage winning percentage during finals would be a fair bit lower.

The home and away travel disadvantage theory isn't supported by either ladder positions over the years, or by finals results. It's viewed as unquestionable by some - but what is there to support it.

 

[sr36]

About time another team challenged hawthorns 5 afl flags (we won’t mention the three in five years before that 86-89)

I wouldn't rule out you going to 6. You're the form team in the comp, playing a style that others haven't been able to combat. Going to be interesting to see how your players and game style hold up in the heat of finals.

Cats and Hawks are the interesting teams for me this year - playing different styles of footy than everyone else which get the ball in really quickly and dangerously to give your forwards more space. If your styles stack up, it might take some excellent coaching to stop either team - despite you two appearing to have the weakest player groups of the finalists. It feels like these two teams have taken the Tiges and then Collingwood principle of frenetic quick ball movement and made it clean as well. They'll be hard to beat unless teams can up the pressure and make their ball movement messier

 

[peetoo]

Hardly any vic teams won finals outside melbourne till 2004 ish. And even then it was only port Adelaide.

Been plenty since

 

[sr36]

Hardly any vic teams won finals outside melbourne till 2004 ish. And even then it was only port Adelaide.

Been plenty since

It's because the Non-Vic teams like Brisbane, WCE and Port of that era were actually better than the Vic teams - and hence they didn't lose many home finals and won the Grand Finals.

It's a crazy revolutionary theory, but it seems possible that most premierships aren't won by a conspiracy of advantages - they're won by the best team.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

It's because the Non-Vic teams like Brisbane, WCE and Port of that era were actually better than the Vic teams - and hence they didn't lose many home finals and won the Grand Finals.

It's a crazy revolutionary theory, but it seems possible that most premierships aren't won by a conspiracy of advantages - they're won by the best team.

So if they win they're clearly better but if they lose its because their ladder position was somehow inflated because of non Vic bias?

I like to think Port are just perennial chokers and should be excluded from any analysis. Same as if you used St Kilda's 100+ years of lol to explain the Victorian perspective.

 

[sr36]

So if they win they're clearly better but if they lose its because their ladder position was somehow inflated because of non Vic bias?

I like to think Port are just perennial chokers and should be excluded from any analysis. Same as if you used St Kilda's 100+ years of lol to explain the Victorian perspective.

It's not just been Port. Brisbane have been outstanding at losing home finals. Sydney are the only one who've played some home finals during that time without dropping any.

No I'm not suggesting you can look at individual games, or win losses. But overtime, if the Vic teams are actually advantaged in home and away their ladder positions would be inflated respective of their ability, and over time you would expect a pattern to emerge where they were more likely to be the teams who lost home finals.

It's not a big enough sample size to do much other than pose questions. And the question for me is even more general and could be looked at with a bigger sample size:

If travel is a big home and away advantage for Vic clubs, why aren't we seeing a situation where Non-Vic clubs exceed their ladder position in finals? If anything the situation looks to be the opposite.

It's only the Grand Final itself where the MCG Grand Final should be influencing it. In the lead up matches, if the home and away travel advantage/disadvantage really is a thing, we should see a trend of Non-Vic clubs outperfoming their ladder position in finals and Vic clubs under-performing their ladder position in finals. Someone would have to crunch the numbers, but it sure doesn't look that way to me.

 

[OniAu]

Starting to think interstate teams arent a true reflection of their skill/form. The amount of advantage they have through the home and away season of pure home games they receive isnt reflective of their finals ability

 

[RUNVS]

Starting to think interstate teams arent a true reflection of their skill/form. The amount of advantage they have through the home and away season of pure home games they receive isnt reflective of their finals ability

or that drafting is harder for non-Victorian teams.

 

[OniAu]

or that drafting is harder for non-Victorian teams.

Drafting maybe/maybe not , especially with the academies.

The ability to poach big names in a period of time with the COLA cant be understated.

 

[Duckimus Prime]

We have been hearing about all the enormous home and away travel benefits the Vic clubs get.

But do you think that team could possibly finish second on the ladder if they were significantly disadvantaged in the home and away season? And it's not a one off.

Port doesn't have a significant advantage through home and away games.

It just has a significant (self inflicted) disadvantage on big occasions, which happens to include Finals.

 

[Duckimus Prime]

If travel is a big home and away advantage for Vic clubs, why aren't we seeing a situation where Non-Vic clubs exceed their ladder position in finals? If anything the situation looks to be the opposite.

Because the disadvantage in travelling is the drain over a long period. Travelling across country once a year isn't a big drain. Doing it constantly though is. Its why you see things with clubs that rarely travel having good records at it.

Finals comes at the end of the year. So you're starting in a more banged up/fatigued state.

 

[RUNVS]

Drafting maybe/maybe not , especially with the academies.

The ability to poach big names in a period of time with the COLA cant be understated.

COLA has not existed for a decade now.

Also how many big named non-South Australians have Port been able to attract in the last decade or so?

Port can realistically only hope for South Australians coming home to bolster their list at the trade table, at least with the really good players and not enough South Australians are drafted in order to provide many options, certainly not enough to be strategic in terms of a position you need.