Victorian Covid Outbreak 2021

[Lavender Bushranger]

The number we are going to look at is how many are turning up to hospital every day. Hospitalisations also lag case numbers so we aren’t even seeing the effect of those 1500-1900 case days yet.

I think there's currently 17200 cases, and 578 of them are in hospital.

And that's with only about 50% of the population vax'd.

As Vax numbers continue to increase, the gap between case numbers and hospital cases will continue to widen.

 

[Kangapirate]

I think there's currently 17200 cases, and 578 of them are in hospital.

And that's with only about 50% of the population vax'd.

As Vax numbers continue to increase, the gap between case numbers and hospital cases will continue to widen.

depends on how much the case numbers rise and which cohort are getting infected, a lot of the double vaxxed elderly will not fair well sadly, I’ll be very surprised if that hospitalisation number doesn’t see a massive upward tick in the next 7-14 days, the numbers we are seeing now are from when we were under a thousand cases.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

depends on how much the case numbers rise and which cohort are getting infected, a lot of the double vaxxed elderly will not fair well sadly, I’ll be very surprised if that hospitalisation number doesn’t see a massive upward tick in the next 7-14 days, the numbers we are seeing now are from when we were under a thousand cases.

It will definitely trend up in terms of numbers. But we know that.

'Living with COVID' means heaps of people die and heaps of people get sick. There's no surprise there.

The government knows this too.

 

[kingswood71]

depends on how much the case numbers rise and which cohort are getting infected, a lot of the double vaxxed elderly will not fair well sadly, I’ll be very surprised if that hospitalisation number doesn’t see a massive upward tick in the next 7-14 days, the numbers we are seeing now are from when we were under a thousand cases.

Vic active cases by age and gender. Majority below 50

 

[kingswood71]

It will definitely trend up in terms of numbers. But we know that.

'Living with COVID' means heaps of people die and heaps of people get sick. There's no surprise there.

The government knows this too.

Yep
Especially if the current rate of active cases to hospitalizations continues...its 3%.

 

[Kangapirate]

View attachment 1256812
Vic active cases by age and gender. Majority below 50

Wait until we open up, the elderly provided they weren’t in aged care last year have been amongst the most protected group in the entire world down here, that’s going to change In a couple of weeks.

Obviously the young are the ones driving the bulk of the current rates, they’re the ones doing the gf parties etc.

 

[Bazzar]

Wait until we open up, the elderly provided they weren’t in aged care last year have been amongst the most protected group in the entire world down here, that’s going to change In a couple of weeks.

Obviously the young are the ones driving the bulk of the current rates, they’re the ones doing the gf parties etc.

Hows it going to change?

 

[Kangapirate]

Hows it going to change?

Hows it going to change?

For the last 18 months we’ve protected our elderly with either being open at Covid 0 or being in lockdown when we’ve had outbreaks/cases. That cohort have had a very good run here provided they weren’t sitting ducks in aged care. Thats all about to change shortly.

 

[Bazzar]

For the last 18 months we’ve protected our elderly with either being open at Covid 0 or being in lockdown when we’ve had outbreaks/cases. That cohort have had a very good run here provided they weren’t sitting ducks in aged care. Thats all about to change shortly.

Sitting ducks in aged care? What are you on about.

And remember the elderly are the most vaccinated demographic in the country

 

[azlou]

Sitting ducks in aged care? What are you on about.

And remember the elderly are the most vaccinated demographic in the country

The higher percentage of hospitalised will be vaccinated because the majority of people are vaccinated
The people who won’t handle covid are the elderly double vaccinated who have weak immune systems
When we open the virus will spread a lot more infection. The majority will be protected by the vaccine but the elderly vaccinated will be harder hit with a higher % in icu compared to younger double vac

 

[azlou]

Taken for granted pre Covid.

Freedom of movement
Freedom of association
Freedom of employment
Freedom of worship
Freedom of Speech


Thanks Daniel.

Thats a new conspiracy I haven’t seen Daniel invented Covid
Every state and country in world have lost freedoms and its Daniels fault
If it wasn’t for bloody Dan we would all be at pub sucking piss and singing hymns

 

[theyellowsash]

View attachment 1256812
Vic active cases by age and gender. Majority below 50

No surprise given the young have had far less access to the vaccine so far

 

[Rusty Brookes]

Sitting ducks in aged care? What are you on about.

And remember the elderly are the most vaccinated demographic in the country

Not often we agree but but there you go. There's hasn't been the breakouts in Aged Care in this wave that we saw last year - and that has to be down to the high vaccination rates.

 

[Rusty Brookes]

The higher percentage of hospitalised will be vaccinated because the majority of people are vaccinated
The people who won’t handle covid are the elderly double vaccinated who have weak immune systems
When we open the virus will spread a lot more infection. The majority will be protected by the vaccine but the elderly vaccinated will be harder hit with a higher % in icu compared to younger double vac

Yep absolutely. However, there's no doubt the higher vaccination rates in Aged Care have worked well so far. We're not seeing the deaths in Aged Care that we saw last year.

 

[interestedoz1]

In todays presser they said cases are likely to hit 3,000 by the end of this month - then we have our proper reopening just days after. If the hospitals get swamped I see a pause being announced though, touch and go right now.

Just my view, but i can't see them opening up at 3000 cases acday. NSW yesterday already flagging going back into lockdown if cases explode. But if they are considering a pause to the roadmap I can't see it being announced until just before the date so as not to disincentivise vaccination.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

Just my view, but i can't see them opening up at 3000 cases acday. NSW yesterday already flagging going back into lockdown if cases explode. But if they are considering a pause to the roadmap I can't see it being announced until just before the date so as not to disincentivise vaccination.

I don't understand that logic.

We'll have 10000 cases daily when we open up. Easily.

That's what we've all known all along that 'living with it' will look like.

Our current lockdown isn't bringing case numbers down, so what's the point in delaying?


The only stat that matters is Vax numbers. I read that they're ahead of schedule, so I don't see why we'd delay anything.

 

[iameviljez]

Our current lockdown isn't bringing case numbers down, so what's the point in delaying?

The only stat that matters is Vax numbers. I read that they're ahead of schedule, so I don't see why we'd delay anything.

Free ICU beds is what matters IMO. You are correct that vaxx numbers also helps with that.

 

[HTT]

I don't understand that logic.

We'll have 10000 cases daily when we open up. Easily.

That's what we've all known all along that 'living with it' will look like.

Our current lockdown isn't bringing case numbers down, so what's the point in delaying?


The only stat that matters is Vax numbers. I read that they're ahead of schedule, so I don't see why we'd delay anything.

Important to compare the numbers to the modelling that the roadmap was based on

Data + Modelling

Burnet is at the forefront of using data and modelling across areas including COVID-19, hepatitis C and B, HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, nutrition, and maternal, newborn and child health.

www.burnet.edu.au

If anyone can find the raw data for this then that would be better, but eyeballing the charts the median scenario had us at around a 7 day case average of 1900 (current 1682), hospitalisations at around 1100 (current 578), ICU demand around 190 (current 117), and deaths for the wave at around 100 (current 85)

We are tracking slightly better than the median expectation to this point.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

Free ICU beds is what matters IMO. You are correct that vaxx numbers also helps with that.

FWIW, I had a catchup with some family yesterday in a local park, and without exaggerating, I reckon there were at least 1000 people there. It looked like the Bird Cage on Derby Day!

Some groups were at least 20-30 in size. Masks were very scarce. Clearly no social distancing. Plenty of groups did seem to be following the rules (2 households, 5 adults, etc.), but most weren't.

I think this is why I don't see any point in delaying 'opening up' as planned. No one is following the rules anyway, and haven't been for months really. I'm not surprised one bit that case numbers continue to rise.

COVID isn't going away. People catching it, people getting sick, and people dying is just part of normal life now.

And to be honest, if you're vax'd, and the people you're hanging out with are vax'd - what's really the difference between gathering now versus in 3 weeks time? The current lockdown is really just about protecting the unvax'd and waiting until they get their shots.

 

[swingdog]

Important to compare the numbers to the modelling that the roadmap was based on

Data + Modelling

Burnet is at the forefront of using data and modelling across areas including COVID-19, hepatitis C and B, HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, nutrition, and maternal, newborn and child health.

www.burnet.edu.au

If anyone can find the raw data for this then that would be better, but eyeballing the charts the median scenario had us at around a 7 day case average of 1900 (current 1682), hospitalisations at around 1100 (current 578), ICU demand around 190 (current 117), and deaths for the wave at around 100 (current 85)

We are tracking slightly better than the median expectation to this point.

Yep, this is one of the clearest pages setting out vaccine progress, which is what matters now with regard to opening up.

COVID-19 vaccine tracker: Worldwide vaccination by the numbers

The latest data on coronavirus vaccinations in your local area, across Australia and around the world.

www.theage.com.au

Hospitalisations, while rising, are sitting at about half of where NSW was at the same point:

Victoria and NSW are in different places with COVID. But a comparison offers 'glimmers of hope'

For Victorians still glued to the daily COVID-19 figures, it has been a grim week. But amidst the bad news, there is some cause for optimism — with vaccination rates seeming to slow the number of people ending up in hospitals.

www.abc.net.au

 

[swingdog]

FWIW, I had a catchup with some family yesterday in a local park, and without exaggerating, I reckon there were at least 1000 people there. It looked like the Bird Cage on Derby Day!

Some groups were at least 20-30 in size. Masks were very scarce. Clearly no social distancing. Plenty of groups did seem to be following the rules (2 households, 5 adults, etc.), but most weren't.

I think this is why I don't see any point in delaying 'opening up' as planned. No one is following the rules anyway, and haven't been for months really. I'm not surprised one bit that case numbers continue to rise.

COVID isn't going away. People catching it, people getting sick, and people dying is just part of normal life now.

And to be honest, if you're vax'd, and the people you're hanging out with are vax'd - what's really the difference between gathering now versus in 3 weeks time? The current lockdown is really just about protecting the unvax'd and waiting until they get their shots.

Yep, cycled through a few parks in the Inner North yesterday. Compared to a few months ago when mask compliance was high, there's hardly anyone wearing them now.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

Some 7% of Israel’s serious and critical COVID-19 cases were vaccinated with three shots of the coronavirus vaccine, according to data released Friday morning by the Health Ministry.

There were around 460 serious and critical cases on Friday, so 7% is around 32 people, meaning less than 0.00001% of people who have had a third shot are in serious condition.

Another 17% were vaccinated with two shots more than six months ago, according to the data.

The majority (71%) were unvaccinated. The rest were recovered (3%), vaccinated and got sick before a full week had passed (2%) or recovered and vaccinated (1%).


To summarise, Israel has 32000 active cases.

460 of them are 'serious'.

32 of them have had a booster shot.

78 are doubled vax'd - but more than 6 months ago.

327 of them are unvax'd.


So....out of 32000 cases, 110 are vax'd people and considered 'serious'. My maths is rubbish, but that's about 0.3%.

 

[theyellowsash]

FWIW, I had a catchup with some family yesterday in a local park, and without exaggerating, I reckon there were at least 1000 people there. It looked like the Bird Cage on Derby Day!

Some groups were at least 20-30 in size. Masks were very scarce. Clearly no social distancing. Plenty of groups did seem to be following the rules (2 households, 5 adults, etc.), but most weren't.

I think this is why I don't see any point in delaying 'opening up' as planned. No one is following the rules anyway, and haven't been for months really. I'm not surprised one bit that case numbers continue to rise.

COVID isn't going away. People catching it, people getting sick, and people dying is just part of normal life now.

And to be honest, if you're vax'd, and the people you're hanging out with are vax'd - what's really the difference between gathering now versus in 3 weeks time? The current lockdown is really just about protecting the unvax'd and waiting until they get their shots.

Yeah let's just throw the young who weren't even allowed to get the vaccine until just recently to the wolves yet again.

Id agree with this if everyone had been given fair and equal access to the vaccine. The boomers can stay locked up with the rest of us until we've all actually had the chance to get the vax and be protected.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

Yep, cycled through a few parks in the Inner North yesterday. Compared to a few months ago when mask compliance was high, there's hardly anyone wearing them now.

To be honest, I don't think the government cares either though.

They allow you to gather in the park, and to drink booze. And of course, when eating or drinking you don't need a mask.

I saw the cops do a drive-by twice yesterday. They didn't seem to care.

 

[theyellowsash]

Some 7% of Israel’s serious and critical COVID-19 cases were vaccinated with three shots of the coronavirus vaccine, according to data released Friday morning by the Health Ministry.

There were around 460 serious and critical cases on Friday, so 7% is around 32 people, meaning less than 0.00001% of people who have had a third shot are in serious condition.

Another 17% were vaccinated with two shots more than six months ago, according to the data.

The majority (71%) were unvaccinated. The rest were recovered (3%), vaccinated and got sick before a full week had passed (2%) or recovered and vaccinated (1%).


To summarise, Israel has 32000 active cases.

460 of them are 'serious'.

32 of them have had a booster shot.

78 are doubled vax'd - but more than 6 months ago.

327 of them are unvax'd.


So....out of 32000 cases, 110 are vax'd people and considered 'serious'. My maths is rubbish, but that's about 0.3%.

Clear proof the vaccine works despite the antivaxers trying to use it as an example of how the whole thing is a conspiracy