Do you also agree that we can play like that again?
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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
We can win this ...and here's why
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Well....thats a hard one. The last couple of weeks would have been mentally, emotionally and physically draining for the boys so it be hard to keep up that pressure and intensity for 4 quarters. Quite a few players had a down day for example Swan and Pendles to name a couple. So there is room for improvement and am hoping to god these players improve and if they do we should win. It still wouldn't surprise me though if the Saints win by a few goals. My main worry is Riewoldt. Will Riewoldt have two quiet games in a row or will he tear us apart in the replay. If we keep Riewoldt to a couple of goals we are a good chance IMO.
DaisysHair
Senior List
Indeed. October is Collingwood's month.
DaisysHair
Senior List
I see your 1977, and raise you 1910, 1919, 1927, 1930, 1935, 1936, 1990. Half our flags. So if history is anything to go by, Collingwood gets the job done more often than not in the 10th month.
WE have the best coaching panel
WE have Max Hudgton and Luke Ball to explain what they did
WE have the best training and recovery facilities
WE cruised through the finals - they had two hard games (now three)
WE have the potential to kick large scores - they don't
Davis should be told now Corrie is in unless.....
Dane Swan wont be out at awards nights all week
WE know we can win - they hope they can repeat last weeks game
WE have more improvement in us than them
Theyre injured players are not injuries that benefit from a tough game
If needed we have quality depth with fresh legs
And WE will be 2010 premiers = the best side will win.
WE have Max Hudgton and Luke Ball to explain what they did
WE have the best training and recovery facilities
WE cruised through the finals - they had two hard games (now three)
WE have the potential to kick large scores - they don't
Davis should be told now Corrie is in unless.....
Dane Swan wont be out at awards nights all week
WE know we can win - they hope they can repeat last weeks game
WE have more improvement in us than them
Theyre injured players are not injuries that benefit from a tough game
If needed we have quality depth with fresh legs
And WE will be 2010 premiers = the best side will win.
Zahki
Norm Smith Medallist
- Aug 13, 2009
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This is where our famous 'eveness' comes into play. The Saints negated Swan, Pendlebury and at least half a dozen others really well. But Thomas, Maxwell, Shaw and Sidebottom all stood up and picked up the slack. On the other hand Goddard and Hayes basically carried their side on their back. If we can find good match ups for those two and keep them out of the game this time we can win. The Saints have too many players playing defensive negating roles and won't have enough attack if those two are neutralised.
- Sep 25, 2005
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Good point Z
Privateye
Cancelled
One doesn't need necessarily to tag Goddard and Hayes in H1 its more in H2 as they have big tanks - Tag em H2 but keep rotations a bit lighter for the two chaps earmarked for later tags as Goddard and Hayes have amazingly big tanks and strong will to win. If it means moving one of Shaw, Maxwell or Goldsack on to them in H2 thats what happens. Amazing games call for amazing feats, you saw it with Goddard and then Maxwell mimicked him with a great mark where he would normally defend. Its time for some amazing coaching now - Ross Lyon turned the tables last Saturday. What do others think?
I reckon we're a good shot because of the injuries they have and that we now know their plans to take us down.
* Gwilt on Cloke/Dawes to free up Fisher
* Gilbert/Dal Santo up forward on Maxwell
* Goddard in the middle
* Third man up in the ruck
Whats in our favour
* Injuries to Gardiner, Dal Santo, Gram and possibly Gilbert.
* Can Baker back up after such a physically intense game?
* McEvoy v Jolly
* We've seen their tricks/moves.
Whats against us
* Brown on Riewoldt - can he hold the champ from tearing the game apart again? I'm not confident. Will help if Kosi has to go in the ruck.
* Mental pressure from errors - missed goals & dropped marks. We've got some thinkers in our side and I think this could get a hold of them.
* St Kilda stars fierocity (Goddard and Hayes). These guys wanted it real bad and I don't think we had a single player that matched their intensity.
* Goal kicking - Blair, Cloke and Thomas missed shots that I would call certainties. Add to that Dawes spraying the ball with a couple of kicks and it cost us the game. Its plagued us all season and has stung in the biggest game of the year. We'll be dealing with it again in the replay.
What we need to do
* Block the third man up. Was a big success for the Sainters and we need to block it. Goddard and Hayes were the main culprits.
* Stop Hayes - huge ask, but it has to be done. Whoever gets the job should watch last years GF and see what Bartel did. Better yet get his old school mate Maxwell to give him a call and ask him.
* Stop Goddard - another huge ask, but he ripped the game out of our hands and forced the draw. Suggestions of Toovey are good and it might see Goldsack come back in.
* Stop Riewoldt - a defensive team effort to stop the champ is required. Anything less will be a failure.
* Control Fisher - Get someone on him and make him earn a kick. Stop him coming across to help.
* Better quality I50s. As has been brought up bombing it inside doesn't work against the Saints and we did it repeatedly.
* (Edit) Ball cannot go on Goddard - too short and slow. Someone else must take him.
Possible Changes
* Goldsack - likely to come in and I think it could be for Blair or Davis. I would probably keep Davis because of his potential to turn a game and draw a top defender. He kicked a goal in a critical high pressure time of the game and has the ability to explode, tearing a game apart. I hope if he does play he takes great confidence from that goal and plays a huge one to stick it up all the critics and win us a premiership.
* Lockyer - no. Too slow and speed is our edge that allows us to keep the pressure on.
* Presti - no. I think Brown showed he had an edge on Riewoldt in the body to body clashes. Its on the lead that Riewoldt will carve us and I don't think we can gamble on Presti there. We need a fully match fit 22 and thats not Presti. Brown didn't get destroyed to make this gamble worth taking.
* Gwilt on Cloke/Dawes to free up Fisher
* Gilbert/Dal Santo up forward on Maxwell
* Goddard in the middle
* Third man up in the ruck
Whats in our favour
* Injuries to Gardiner, Dal Santo, Gram and possibly Gilbert.
* Can Baker back up after such a physically intense game?
* McEvoy v Jolly
* We've seen their tricks/moves.
Whats against us
* Brown on Riewoldt - can he hold the champ from tearing the game apart again? I'm not confident. Will help if Kosi has to go in the ruck.
* Mental pressure from errors - missed goals & dropped marks. We've got some thinkers in our side and I think this could get a hold of them.
* St Kilda stars fierocity (Goddard and Hayes). These guys wanted it real bad and I don't think we had a single player that matched their intensity.
* Goal kicking - Blair, Cloke and Thomas missed shots that I would call certainties. Add to that Dawes spraying the ball with a couple of kicks and it cost us the game. Its plagued us all season and has stung in the biggest game of the year. We'll be dealing with it again in the replay.
What we need to do
* Block the third man up. Was a big success for the Sainters and we need to block it. Goddard and Hayes were the main culprits.
* Stop Hayes - huge ask, but it has to be done. Whoever gets the job should watch last years GF and see what Bartel did. Better yet get his old school mate Maxwell to give him a call and ask him.
* Stop Goddard - another huge ask, but he ripped the game out of our hands and forced the draw. Suggestions of Toovey are good and it might see Goldsack come back in.
* Stop Riewoldt - a defensive team effort to stop the champ is required. Anything less will be a failure.
* Control Fisher - Get someone on him and make him earn a kick. Stop him coming across to help.
* Better quality I50s. As has been brought up bombing it inside doesn't work against the Saints and we did it repeatedly.
* (Edit) Ball cannot go on Goddard - too short and slow. Someone else must take him.
Possible Changes
* Goldsack - likely to come in and I think it could be for Blair or Davis. I would probably keep Davis because of his potential to turn a game and draw a top defender. He kicked a goal in a critical high pressure time of the game and has the ability to explode, tearing a game apart. I hope if he does play he takes great confidence from that goal and plays a huge one to stick it up all the critics and win us a premiership.
* Lockyer - no. Too slow and speed is our edge that allows us to keep the pressure on.
* Presti - no. I think Brown showed he had an edge on Riewoldt in the body to body clashes. Its on the lead that Riewoldt will carve us and I don't think we can gamble on Presti there. We need a fully match fit 22 and thats not Presti. Brown didn't get destroyed to make this gamble worth taking.
I'm surprised with the number of shots on goal we had that dropped short.
I remember seeing the early centre clearances stat was largely in our favour. After Gardiner went down, Hayes and Goddard kept being the third man up around the ground punching the ball in the hit outs that basically negated Jolly being able to cleanly give us first use clearing Swan, Pendle and Ball. They got most of their clearances around the ground when this happened. Would they employ this tactic again if they select a McEvoy or Stanley? I don't think they will which I believe will help out our mids.
Hearing the words 'third man up' (3MU) gives me a plan for next week.
Every time Hayes or Goddard goes 3MU this week, tunnel them, like Jones did to Pendlebury. It would only take two or three big hits to render them very sore, and you can probably do it without too many people noticing.
I know it's a dog act, and we should be above this, but don't tell me you haven't thought about doing it.
There is some truth there, but it was very effective for them so I could see them doing it while its Jolly in the ruck. The Saints coaches earned their pay in the GF with some good moves.
and this from HarryO twitter......
"looking forward to our training session tomorrow. This week feels a lot more normal in comparison to last week"
back to work again..no Brownlows, no Coaches award, no Grand Final parade...less media requests...just back to work.....
I almost feel like the circus is over and now we will perform as we have all year.
need I say more.
"looking forward to our training session tomorrow. This week feels a lot more normal in comparison to last week"
back to work again..no Brownlows, no Coaches award, no Grand Final parade...less media requests...just back to work.....
I almost feel like the circus is over and now we will perform as we have all year.
need I say more.
FredNerk69
Senior List
Most promising thing I have heard since the GF. This makes me more confident!!!!!!!!
I think this week is far more even.
Both teams coming off a tough gruelling match
Both have the same break
Both teams have players that will benefit from the GF experience
I don't buy into the theory that players that had a poor game will automatically have a good one the following week, or that players that had good games won't be able to replicate that kind of form again.
I was curious to hear Mick Malthouses speech at the dinner function that evening, how he said something along the lines of 'we will rebound from this just as we have done this year' which I thought was a strange comment. It's entirely possible that you will, but given that you haven't really had to bounce back from anything in recent weeks, it's kind of an unknown isn't it?
Who would of thought we'd have all this kind of matchup and tactic discussion all over again, crazy stuff huh.
Both teams coming off a tough gruelling match
Both have the same break
Both teams have players that will benefit from the GF experience
I don't buy into the theory that players that had a poor game will automatically have a good one the following week, or that players that had good games won't be able to replicate that kind of form again.
I was curious to hear Mick Malthouses speech at the dinner function that evening, how he said something along the lines of 'we will rebound from this just as we have done this year' which I thought was a strange comment. It's entirely possible that you will, but given that you haven't really had to bounce back from anything in recent weeks, it's kind of an unknown isn't it?
Who would of thought we'd have all this kind of matchup and tactic discussion all over again, crazy stuff huh.
Yep, good post.
Re MM's comment, I suppose we bounced back after hawks loss round 22 with Dogs then Cats in finals. And after Brissy beat us round Round 10 we beat Dogs week after pretty easily.
And probably as a general rule, good teams usually do bounce back after a disappointing one.
Still, you can only play as well as you're allowed and you guys have an awesome side.
The intensity of Goddard and Hayes was amazing i thought, and really only Maxwell got near to matching that.
Grumpy Bum
Cancelled
If we can get close to winning 50% of the stoppages and control the ball movement, keeping it wide ( yes, wide against the saints works, because its using leg speed and open space) we should win.
if we have the ascendancy early in the game, we need to tranlaate it to scoreboard pressure. The saints love to slow down the game and control the ball. But if they have a 5 or 6 goal deficit, they cant afford to slow the game down, they need to speed up the game to bridge the gap. Forcing them into a faster tempo increases the chances of them making skill errors. Skill errors means turnovers and greater chances of moving the ball into a less crowded forward area as they have to roll the dice more by having players closer to their forward 50.
Run the bastards ragged and prey on their ball carriers at stoppages.
if we have the ascendancy early in the game, we need to tranlaate it to scoreboard pressure. The saints love to slow down the game and control the ball. But if they have a 5 or 6 goal deficit, they cant afford to slow the game down, they need to speed up the game to bridge the gap. Forcing them into a faster tempo increases the chances of them making skill errors. Skill errors means turnovers and greater chances of moving the ball into a less crowded forward area as they have to roll the dice more by having players closer to their forward 50.
Run the bastards ragged and prey on their ball carriers at stoppages.
I guess so, though I don't read much into losses in the final round with top spot is secure and injury prevention in place.
The unknown of this week is what makes it so hard to read, it's such a unique thing to face the same side again, and after such an intense match.
Maxwell was great, it was really a 'come on, follow me' game from him.
Lenny busts his but week in week out, I expect much of the same. Goddard seemed to find another gear that I have never seen before, think he will be just as excited to try it out again this week.
Knightmare
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Toovey to Goddard does intrigue me. Long time since he will have had to have run this hard, but I would like to see him on Goddard for periods. He the endurance and does have the defensive skills. I think a number of players will spend time on Goddard, but I would love Toovey to spend some time on him. I like it!
My dangermen for this game include:
Riewoldt (We played him correctly in game 1 where we made contact with him at every opportunity as he moved up the ground and went third man up on the right occasions. We all know he will rebound after an ordinary grand final 1 so we have to continue to implement the same ideas. Also don't follow him outside 50 because he will outrun any of our players with his superior work rated so his direct opponent can just stay back in defence, if N.Brown/Presti. To "beat Riewoldt" we need to win the midfield battle from the first bounce. Swan, Pendlebury and Didak all need to lift and this gives our defense the best chance possible to "beat Riewoldt")
Goddard (Need to take him out of the game. I don't think this is a one player job. When he goes back I'd like Macaffer to take him, and otherwise I would give Toovey+Goldsack the primary job on Goddard)
Dal Santo (Actually like Thomas running on Dal. Thomas has done some great jobs on some of the great ball users of other clubs, he has beaten Bartell before and has done well on Dal Santo previously so I would give him this job whenever possible. Beats him for pace and I think could have the greater influence on the game)
Hayes (I'd have Luke Ball battle with him around the stoppages but around the ground get Wellingham to really take his influence out of the game. Along with Goddard was the best for the Saints last week and his influence does need to be influenced)
Montagna (I'd give Ben Johnson the job on Montagna. Montagna has had another great season and I think Johnson might be able to go with him for big periods)
Gram (Might look to give Didak to him to try to exploit the matchup because Didak offensively should be far too good for a not 100% Gram)
Fisher+Gilbert+Gwilt (Be mindful of him and don't kick it to them. Kicked it to far too many contests on the weekend and nearly all were marked by the opposition. We need to kick to presenting targets and not contests either inside 50 or on our 50m ark because we can't penetrate it with Fisher and or Gilbert there to continually chop it off. Their rebound from defence is far too good and they will mark it 9 times out of 10. So keep it away from this pair, quick ball movement into the forward 50 because this is the way you can beat the St Kilda defence and don't kick to contests because this is the we will lose and have the ball flying back from where she came. We need to take more risks, play on more and stop playing the stop start St Kilda forced upon us in the 2nd half. We are the better running team and need to move the ball like we did against Geelong to win)
Some moves with our players:
Harry O'Brien (Play him on a half back flank, possibly get him to walk straight up to McQualter. McQualter is not a goal kicker and heard a stat from another poster that Harry of our backman has had the most goals kicked on him. So this might be the way to go rather than manning him up on Schneider/Milne)
Steele Sidebottom (Move him forward to replace Leon. Can provide the same pressure but also more of a consistant offensive thread)
Ben Johnson (Don't play him in the back pocket on Milne! Play him up the ground! With Leon out of the team forcing Sidebottom forward it forces Johnson to come into the midfield rotation)
My changes:
Out: Leon Davis
Possible: N.Brown
In: Tyson Goldsack
Possible: Presti
My dangermen for this game include:
Riewoldt (We played him correctly in game 1 where we made contact with him at every opportunity as he moved up the ground and went third man up on the right occasions. We all know he will rebound after an ordinary grand final 1 so we have to continue to implement the same ideas. Also don't follow him outside 50 because he will outrun any of our players with his superior work rated so his direct opponent can just stay back in defence, if N.Brown/Presti. To "beat Riewoldt" we need to win the midfield battle from the first bounce. Swan, Pendlebury and Didak all need to lift and this gives our defense the best chance possible to "beat Riewoldt")
Goddard (Need to take him out of the game. I don't think this is a one player job. When he goes back I'd like Macaffer to take him, and otherwise I would give Toovey+Goldsack the primary job on Goddard)
Dal Santo (Actually like Thomas running on Dal. Thomas has done some great jobs on some of the great ball users of other clubs, he has beaten Bartell before and has done well on Dal Santo previously so I would give him this job whenever possible. Beats him for pace and I think could have the greater influence on the game)
Hayes (I'd have Luke Ball battle with him around the stoppages but around the ground get Wellingham to really take his influence out of the game. Along with Goddard was the best for the Saints last week and his influence does need to be influenced)
Montagna (I'd give Ben Johnson the job on Montagna. Montagna has had another great season and I think Johnson might be able to go with him for big periods)
Gram (Might look to give Didak to him to try to exploit the matchup because Didak offensively should be far too good for a not 100% Gram)
Fisher+Gilbert+Gwilt (Be mindful of him and don't kick it to them. Kicked it to far too many contests on the weekend and nearly all were marked by the opposition. We need to kick to presenting targets and not contests either inside 50 or on our 50m ark because we can't penetrate it with Fisher and or Gilbert there to continually chop it off. Their rebound from defence is far too good and they will mark it 9 times out of 10. So keep it away from this pair, quick ball movement into the forward 50 because this is the way you can beat the St Kilda defence and don't kick to contests because this is the we will lose and have the ball flying back from where she came. We need to take more risks, play on more and stop playing the stop start St Kilda forced upon us in the 2nd half. We are the better running team and need to move the ball like we did against Geelong to win)
Some moves with our players:
Harry O'Brien (Play him on a half back flank, possibly get him to walk straight up to McQualter. McQualter is not a goal kicker and heard a stat from another poster that Harry of our backman has had the most goals kicked on him. So this might be the way to go rather than manning him up on Schneider/Milne)
Steele Sidebottom (Move him forward to replace Leon. Can provide the same pressure but also more of a consistant offensive thread)
Ben Johnson (Don't play him in the back pocket on Milne! Play him up the ground! With Leon out of the team forcing Sidebottom forward it forces Johnson to come into the midfield rotation)
My changes:
Out: Leon Davis
Possible: N.Brown
In: Tyson Goldsack
Possible: Presti
Grumpy Bum
Cancelled
Malthouse is not known to run tags too often this year, but Wellingham on Hayes isnt the worst idea, he towelled up Judd Rd18 and it might take him to the ball, as he was relatively quiet saturday.
But we cant afford to run too many tags as it makes us very defensive especially early on, which is when we should be trying to have them chase us.
I think most would view St Kilda as a more battle hardened unit, I know I do. Some of our key players are boys. Proportionally, we will benefit from the first GF experience more.
We have more depth outside of the 22 who played last week. If this factors in, we'll have to wait see.
St Kilda have had a harder finals campaign but the season is long for some of our younger players... this is probably a break even.
Who will carry in more injuries? I would say St Kilda - but its hard to know.
Nick Reiwoldt is in a category of his own. If he takes control of a half of football you can almost kiss the game goodbye.
The facts are that more Collingwood top shelf players failed to fire than St Kilda.
Collingood ran away with a near match winning lead and were pegged back. It is hard to imagine this happening again, this observation bodes well for the Saints IMO.
Most factors can't be commented on because they are in the laps of the coaches and the individual players. Based on what we can break down and mull over , I wouldn't be suprised if it goes into overtime..
