Review We need to stop the bleeding

[Murray2503]

Laird, hampton, doedee (long term) along with hurley hopefully next year will help our defence....brown, cheney, hartigan, henderson, otten not up to it!

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I know we must win our next 3. If we win our next 3 I'm fairly certain we will be sitting in the top 4.

This is how I see our season panning out from here...

Geelong at home - An absolute must win, and from what I've seen so far a game we should win.
GC away - Will be a thrashing
GWS at home - Another absolute must win, and the Giants definitely aren't invisible away from home. A game we should win.
Saints at home - Will be a comfortable win
WC away - Probably a loss as we are terrible in WA, but again a game we can win.
North at home - Should win this, I still think their ladder position is massively inflating how good they actually are.
Melbourne away - Tough game, will be close
Carlton away - Should win, but Carlton are looking better. Really should be a comfortable win if we want top 4 though.
Collingwood at home - Thrashing
Geelong away - Probably a loss
Essendon at home - Thrashing
Brisbane at home - Thrashing
Fremantle away - (just a side note, we travel twice to Perth and also go to Geelong in the same season?! Yeah, balanced fixture...) - hopefully Freo are tanking by now
Port at home - Always a tough game to pick, will depend on how Port's season goes
Eagles at home - Should be a win, but will be tough.

It's possible to win 13 of those, 10-11 at worst. I think we will finish anywhere from 14-17 wins.

This week will be our toughest of he remaining home games - I don't think we can match them in midfield and ruck so I'm concerned

If we can this week we could go close to being undefeated at home

I think 14 wins is realistic but if we win the next 3 then scale that up to 15-17

 

[Bovo]

Our backline is still pretty young. You are going to lose the contest from time to time. Although frustrating about a clean kick into our defensive line to an opposition there are a few things to consider:
1 - Midfield pressure. It is bloody difficult to kick a clean pass if you are under pressure. Our defence starts in the middle if we lose the ball.
2 - A number of marks in our defensive 50 came from turnovers out of our defensive 50. This was not because of speed or height....it came from poor decision making. Bombing it out as opposed to hitting a target became the difference for us.
3 - We are a high scoring high risk team. When it all comes together it works well. When it fails, it really fails.

 

[mistylake]

I know we must win our next 3. If we win our next 3 I'm fairly certain we will be sitting in the top 4.

This is how I see our season panning out from here...

Geelong at home - An absolute must win, and from what I've seen so far a game we should win.
GC away - Will be a thrashing
GWS at home - Another absolute must win, and the Giants definitely aren't invisible away from home. A game we should win.
Saints at home - Will be a comfortable win
WC away - Probably a loss as we are terrible in WA, but again a game we can win.
North at home - Should win this, I still think their ladder position is massively inflating how good they actually are.
Melbourne away - Tough game, will be close
Carlton away - Should win, but Carlton are looking better. Really should be a comfortable win if we want top 4 though.
Collingwood at home - Thrashing
Geelong away - Probably a loss
Essendon at home - Thrashing
Brisbane at home - Thrashing
Fremantle away - (just a side note, we travel twice to Perth and also go to Geelong in the same season?! Yeah, balanced fixture...) - hopefully Freo are tanking by now
Port at home - Always a tough game to pick, will depend on how Port's season goes
Eagles at home - Should be a win, but will be tough.

It's possible to win 13 of those, 10-11 at worst. I think we will finish anywhere from 14-17 wins.

I can't see us winning the next 3 in a row. Although the hard ones are at home. If we do we should get 4 in a row. Feels like a while since that happened. Geelong are going annoyingly good plus I recon were getting worked out. Beat us in the centre and were fu*ked

 

[Ramify]

Jacobs a worry? He was one of the very few players keeping us in the game. His rucking the past couple of weeks has been good, and his around the ground work has been a strength.

Really? His around the ground work has been ok, but his ruck work,especially at ball ups is as bad as I've seen from him. Looks spent already.

 

[VSTone]

the bleeding will stop as soon as we get our targets presenting well and kicking skill level up to snuff... the turnover by foot is killing us.

 

[1990crow]

Getting scored heavily on each week is going to stop us in our tracks.

 

[Tex200]

Laird, hampton, doedee (long term) along with hurley hopefully next year will help our defence....brown, cheney, hartigan, henderson, otten not up to it!

Our midfield gave up 68 entries on Sat, just let that sink in - 68.

On that basis I think the defence did pretty well to restrict them to 18 goals and a 48% i50 efficiency which is bloody good effort.

In fact the only side which has reached above 50% efficiency i50 against us has been Richmond.

 

[Tex200]

Just taking this a step further let's compare some stats with the WB's whose defence has conceded the lowest points tally in the comp.

The Dogs average I50 conceded up to R7 is 40. From those 40 opposition score at an average efficiency of 45%.

Compare the stingy Dogs to the free wheeling Crows. We cough up an average of 59 I50's but once in our defence still only coughs up a scoring average of 47%.

An astonishing result really and shows that our defence is actually doing a very good job.

Our problem is very clearly the amount of ground our midfield is conceding. If we were conceding the same amount of I50 as the Dogs we would comfortably have the best defence in the AFL.

 

[VSTone]

Our midfield gave up 68 entries on Sat, just let that sink in - 68.

On that basis I think the defence did pretty well to restrict them to 18 goals and a 48% i50 efficiency which is bloody good effort.

In fact the only side which has reached above 50% efficiency i50 against us has been Richmond.

64 clangers? does anyone know the average? does anyone have the turnover stat?

 

[VSTone]

Just taking this a step further let's compare some stats with the WB's whose defence has conceded the lowest points tally in the comp.

The Dogs average I50 conceded up to R7 is 40. From those 40 opposition score at an average efficiency of 45%.

Compare the stingy Dogs to the free wheeling Crows. We cough up an average of 59 I50's but once in our defence still only coughs up a scoring average of 47%.

An astonishing result really and shows that our defence is actually doing a very good job.

Our problem is very clearly the amount of ground our midfield is conceding. If we were conceding the same amount of I50 as the Dogs we would comfortably have the best defence in the AFL.

so our mids are getting back to clog it up, it's once we get it we cant rebound it often enough, we play heavy team defense without an effective pressure outlet. the wingers need to provide better targets...

 

[jackster83]

First step is to clean up our fumbling. The last three games is as fumbly as I've seen a Crows side. When you have a lot of slow inside players, you need them to win the ball and get it out quickly to the more damaging players on the outside.

Fumble the ball or drop marks and the better inside mids will cut you to shreds.

 

[Tex200]

so our mids are getting back to clog it up, it's once we get it we cant rebound it often enough, we play heavy team defense without an effective pressure outlet. the wingers need to provide better targets...

I think it's more about how often it's coming in, once in our defence do ok given the barrage they cop.

They get it back out with reasonable efficiency.

 

[VSTone]

fumbling & disposal... ball skills 101

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Just taking this a step further let's compare some stats with the WB's whose defence has conceded the lowest points tally in the comp.

The Dogs average I50 conceded up to R7 is 40. From those 40 opposition score at an average efficiency of 45%.

Compare the stingy Dogs to the free wheeling Crows. We cough up an average of 59 I50's but once in our defence still only coughs up a scoring average of 47%.

An astonishing result really and shows that our defence is actually doing a very good job.

Our problem is very clearly the amount of ground our midfield is conceding. If we were conceding the same amount of I50 as the Dogs we would comfortably have the best defence in the AFL.

Not sure if I quite agree with that.

The Dogs (and other teams) seem to be pressing quite high. Looking to lock the ball in their forward half. Repeat F50 entries, concede fewer I50's. Can get scored on out the back but are prepared to risk that.

We don't defend that way. We defend deeper which means we concede more I50's but don't get caught short out the back as often.

The Bulldogs 45% includes the freebies they give up where the defenders are no chance. When they are actually one on one they are extremely difficult to score against. Our 47% though are almost entirely when our defenders are one out or even have a numbers advantage. Our defenders are getting beaten IMO. It's not just supply. It's not from unpressured passes hitting a leading forward on the chest either.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

We are ranked 17th for getting the ball out of our defensive 50.

17th for getting the ball out of our defensive 50, that is a shock. Are we too heavy, I think most have thought that.

This is a worry. Having Talia, Brown, Laird and Lever all back there who are all average kicks doesn't help. Cheney is a better kick but doesn't get much of it. Hartigan is an improved kick but still just ok.

That really just leaves Smith as a good kick in our back half which is not enough.

 

[Slippery Pete]

Our midfield gave up 68 entries on Sat, just let that sink in - 68.

On that basis I think the defence did pretty well to restrict them to 18 goals and a 48% i50 efficiency which is bloody good effort.

In fact the only side which has reached above 50% efficiency i50 against us has been Richmond.

Our gameplan almost concedes a percentage of inside 50s to create attack from defence.

A lot of the Bulldogs' goals (and Hawthorn's) came from clumsy defensive efforts and free kicks we gave away. Yes, awful umpiring, but also not a lot of smarts from us defensively. Every single time we ****ing touch a small opposition forward we give away a free kick.

If you're going to play the majority of the game in your defensive half, you have to clean that shit up. At the moment we stink at it.

 

[Elite Crow]

This is a worry. Having Talia, Brown, Laird and Lever all back there who are all average kicks doesn't help. Cheney is a better kick but doesn't get much of it. Hartigan is an improved kick but still just ok.

That really just leaves Smith as a good kick in our back half which is not enough.

I think Brown is a pretty good kick and Laird isn't too bad, also are we giving them options to kick to?

 

[Tex200]

Not sure if I quite agree with that.

The Dogs (and other teams) seem to be pressing quite high. Looking to lock the ball in their forward half. Repeat F50 entries, concede fewer I50's. Can get scored on out the back but are prepared to risk that.

We don't defend that way. We defend deeper which means we concede more I50's but don't get caught short out the back as often.

The Bulldogs 45% includes the freebies they give up where the defenders are no chance. When they are actually one on one they are extremely difficult to score against. Our 47% though are almost entirely when our defenders are one out or even have a numbers advantage. Our defenders are getting beaten IMO. It's not just supply. It's not from unpressured passes hitting a leading forward on the chest either.

Yep, fair observation.

It's hard to generalise though (and I know that I did ) with so many variations in a game. Against SYD for instance we gave up a number of out the back goals.

The raw numbers look ok, but I certainly accept that they don't always tell the full story.

 

[skoobydoo]

so our mids are getting back to clog it up, it's once we get it we cant rebound it often enough, we play heavy team defense without an effective pressure outlet. the wingers need to provide better targets...

Outsiders!

 

[skoobydoo]

One good thing David King is good at is stats and in our case they paint a good picture of why we are being scored against so heavily:

We are ranked 18th for keeping the ball in our forward 50.
We are ranked 17th for getting the ball out of our defensive 50.


17th for getting the ball out of our defensive 50, that is a shock. Are we too heavy, I think most have thought that.

We are one dimensionally slow at trying to come out of D50. And we shrink when the ball is repelled a couple of times.
Certainly from kick-ins where against the WB I think every long kick clearance attempt was RHside. May be wrong with that.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Certainly from kick-ins where against the WB I think every long kick clearance attempt was RHside. May be wrong with that.

This is a pretty simple but pertinent question. Why - for the last five or so years - have we kicked to almost the exact same spot from kick ins 90% of the time?

 

[Encanto]

This is a pretty simple but pertinent question. Why - for the last five or so years - have we kicked to almost the exact same spot from kick ins 90% of the time?

The reason for this could partly be that 70% of the play is on the side that the benches are on, making for quicker interchange. If one of the benches was on the other side of the ground it may open the game up but the team using that bench would be further away from the medical rooms if needed.

 

[VSTone]

This is a pretty simple but pertinent question. Why - for the last five or so years - have we kicked to almost the exact same spot from kick ins 90% of the time?

we don't do "unpredictable" very well...

 

[beartoo]

We are one dimensionally slow at trying to come out of D50. And we shrink when the ball is repelled a couple of times.
Certainly from kick-ins where against the WB I think every long kick clearance attempt was RHside. May be wrong with that.

Dunno about this. We were coming out like lightning in the 1st few games. Could it be that better defences in clubs that have observed our slingshot have worked out how to combat our run out of defence? The Dogs worked hard both ways. How did they constantly have more at the contest than us and yet outnumber us when we tried the quick hack out of our defensive 50? Their pressure made it difficult for us to transition with ease all night.
Couple all that with a wet ball against Footscray that caused us to fumble and turn the pill over and it's easy to see why we had such a disparity in inside 50s.
Whatever the free kick count was, these are things Pyke and our coaches should have addressed during the game.