Weaver mock draft

[Snoop Dog]

Weaver - terrific stuff pal - really enjoyed the read.

Couple of blokes I have seen thru the year that struck me as good types;

Chris Dunne - this bloke seems to have a body that will mature a lot and loves the stoppage. Any chance he will go higher?

Craig Flint - I liked the look of him in the TAC GF - seems like a solid FB sort. Any chance of rookie?

Heath Hocking

Nathan McLean

Ricky Delphine

Leigh Adams

Interested in your views

 

[Philhawk]

Weaver will we see your updated top 20 now Beau Dowlers injury has arisen? Or will you just shunt the player below Beau up a spot?

 

[Weaver]

Weaver will we see your updated top 20 now Beau Dowlers injury has arisen? Or will you just shunt the player below Beau up a spot?

If I do another version it will be after all the delistments when the final draft order and list sizes are known.

I don't really feel Dowler will move much. Porbably the main change is that most clubs will now have Hughes over Dowler whereas last week it might have been a 50-50 choice. I already had that so can probably stick with what I have.

 

[Weaver]

Chris Dunne - this bloke seems to have a body that will mature a lot and loves the stoppage. Any chance he will go higher?

As a run-of-the-mill rover there would be a greater chance of him not being taken than going higher.

Craig Flint - I liked the look of him in the TAC GF - seems like a solid FB sort. Any chance of rookie?

Perhaps. More likely a VFL gig with a view to winning a rookie spot in 2007. At 189cm he doesn't really have a lot of size about him and AFL clubs would prefer their fullbacks to be the first line-of-attack as well as solid defenders. Flint is really just a stay-at-home spoiler.

Heath Hocking

Maybe. He is tough, puts his body on the line, and goes hard most of the time. Kicking is iffy and he probably doesn't get quite enough of the ball. AFL clubs like 6ft ruck-rovers so he will be a chance. I just rate a few others higher.

Nathan McLean

The NT team this year was the worst football team ever assembled. He might be their best chance of being drafted, but I'd say there was little chance of that.

Ricky Delphine
Leigh Adams

Other than winning the ball there isn't much special about Delphine and winning the ball counts for much less than you might think. Just an OK rover, little chance of getting drafted.

Adams might be an interesting one next year. He has played some tidy games in the back-pocket, is quick, and can find the goals. A lot more strings to hi bow. But I'd say next year was his chance.

 

[ozdog198]

In regards to Dowlers tragic injury, does anyone think that Lucy will be elevated up the order due to this?

 

[JeNnO_powerfreak_21]

Nathan McLean has had call's from Kangaroos and Bulldogs. He has just recently changed NTFL clubs because he dislikes the coach so that might hurt his chances.

 

[macca69]

Excellent work Weaver


In a dream team point of view. Who will score the best?

generally it depends on which team they got to, so they get more game time. If these players get gametime IMO next year they could score well:

Nathan Jones
Marc Murphy
Andrew Swallow
Richard Douglas
Matthew Seal
Matthew Priddis

 

[SimonH]

are you saying Hooper and Fitzgerald were bad recruiting decisions???????

you have to be kidding, both were prodigiously talented, and ruined by injury. there was nothing wrong with their selections.

Happy to concede that they were both talented and ruined by injury. I'm not shooting bullets at the particular club staffers who drafted them high; just pointing out that, for every much-touted draft pick who doesn't 'make it' for whatever reason, there's another kid who's perceived (at the ripe old age of 17) to be less talented who would have actually matured into a quality AFL footballer, but never got the chance. Of course, there's the obvious much-touted failures like Laurence Angwin, but he's so notorious that citing him in favour of any argument feels like a cheap shot.

Not knowing their pre-1990 and pre-1998 injury history (if any), any evidence there might have been about their off-field application in times of adversity, etcetera, I have no idea whether there were warning signs, or whether their inability to recover from serious injuries (cf, for example, Judd) was just dumb luck that the most insightful recruiting manager in the world couldn't have foreseen.

Reading the entire 1990 draft list does certainly emphasise how much better things have gotten since then. You can have unfortunate and unrecoverable injuries to 20 or 30% of your draft picks, but not 70%+. I don't know whether the bizarre rules that Weaver alludes to explain it all, but not only was the hit-rate awful, the odds of doing well do not seem to vary from top to bottom (Nick Daffy 49, Matt Clarke 56, Jimmy Hird famously 79 etc).

 

[Weaver]

Reading the entire 1990 draft list does certainly emphasise how much better things have gotten since then. You can have unfortunate and unrecoverable injuries to 20 or 30% of your draft picks, but not 70%+. I don't know whether the bizarre rules that Weaver alludes to explain it all, but not only was the hit-rate awful, the odds of doing well do not seem to vary from top to bottom (Nick Daffy 49, Matt Clarke 56, Jimmy Hird famously 79 etc).

The early drafts and later (after 91) drafts are completely different eras. People should refer to those early drafts with caution.

In 1990 for example -
1. One WA player each club
2. No SA players at all (Crows into comp).
3. QLD, NSW, NT and ACT players only after the Lions and Swans had knocked them back for three years (16 draft age, 19 for those states for the other clubs).
4. Metropolitan zoning and the under-19s in operation meaning very few Melbourne kids elligable.

So the talent pool was basically Tasmania and Vic Country and one WA player each (but WCE had tied up most of the good ones over the years).

The 'successes' are all quirks. Matt Clarke and Nick Daffy for example were South Australians who played at Mt Gambier which is a Vic Country leage affiliated area. So Richmond exploited a loophole.

 

[YAKUZA]

A well researched and in depth analysis, even on the WA boys although I won't be surprised if Bower goes a little earlier. Well done.

 

[macca69]

Hey Weaver I would like to heard your thoughts on Leigh Adams, was he close to making your mock draft? cheers.

 

[grub29]

I'm glad to see you have Max Bailey at pick 58.The footydraft one still doesn't have him in the 70 picks and I have it on good authority that he will go late 1st early 2nd round on his performances at the draft camp.I have seen him and rate him highly and this year's draft won't have many 205cm ruckmen in it.Hawthorn,Fremantle,Geelong all could be chances.

 

[delightfuldees]

i have just joined up to this site and had a look at weavers draft. i think that you have harshy writtin up number 46:Shaun Grigg, this kid is a gun and should be up around the 30s. i have played against him throughout the year in TAC and school football and in each game he had carved us up with his running,attacking style off half back.he was all aus last year played for vic country this year.. just wondering weaver why dont you have him higher up???

 

[irel]

i have just joined up to this site and had a look at weavers draft. i think that you have harshy writtin up number 46:Shaun Grigg, this kid is a gun and should be up around the 30s. i have played against him throughout the year in TAC and school football and in each game he had carved us up with his running,attacking style off half back.he was all aus last year played for vic country this year.. just wondering weaver why dont you have him higher up???

delightfuldees, I assume that your second post is going to be your version of the Phantom Draft. I would be interested in having a look. I'd also appreciate a brief synopsis of each individuals strengths and weaknesses and an explanation why you feel that a particular club may pick them at whatever order in the draft they do.
Like I said I am most interested to see your version.
Cheers bud.

 

[delightfuldees]

i was just saying, because i watched that final closly and saw that grigg only had jackson for about a quarter and they were about even. then grigg went to full foward early in the 2nd term.looked as if grigg was carrying a injury but hes lovley to watch when he has the ball.has anyone got any thoughts on him?and if he will go this year?

 

[Sezzac1]

I suspect Weaver and others have him well down or not at all because......

He is one paced i.e not overly footy quick, often lacks intensity, average below his knees the more he fatigues and he fatigues early because his fitness is not what it should be, his defensive game (when matched against good players) is poor and aside from being a decent left foot kick (until he fatigues) he doesn't have many other tricks.

I saw him play 8 times last year, including the U18 champs and Finals.

 

[delightfuldees]

I suspect Weaver and others have him well down or not at all because......

He is one paced i.e not overly footy quick, often lacks intensity, average below his knees the more he fatigues and he fatigues early because his fitness is not what it should be, his defensive game (when matched against good players) is poor and aside from being a decent left foot kick (until he fatigues) he doesn't have many other tricks.

I saw him play 8 times last year, including the U18 champs and Finals.

oh ok thanks, has the kid got any good benifets ive heard his bad ones,what are his strengths sezzac?he must have some to make it as far as he has?and do you think he will get picked up? what are some other players in the draft that are a similar player?

 

[GoSarge]

Weaver, I forgot to ask, if the likes of Fergus Watts was, hypothetically, in an open draft this year, how would he compare with the likes of Kennedy, Dowler, Ryder etc etc and where would you see him being picked up considering he is 2 years older than the other young KPP's ? Top 10 ? 15-->20 ?

 

[king_Brown]

Just a question for ya Weaver.....Not sure if youve already been asked this, But do you reckon Ricky Delphine will get Rookied this year?? sure hope he does....would to love to see the little fella play AFL

 

[jarman]

Weaver, best post I have read by a country mile. Really enjoyed the read and insight. Thanks for the great effort.

 

[bawkbagawk]

Just a question for ya Weaver.....Not sure if youve already been asked this, But do you reckon Ricky Delphine will get Rookied this year?? sure hope he does....would to love to see the little fella play AFL

Sorry to repeat myself(said this in another thread) buy Ricky is too young to be rookied this year.

 

[Weaver]

Weaver, I forgot to ask, if the likes of Fergus Watts was, hypothetically, in an open draft this year, how would he compare with the likes of Kennedy, Dowler, Ryder etc etc and where would you see him being picked up considering he is 2 years older than the other young KPP's ? Top 10 ? 15-->20 ?

Watts tended to take batches of marks. He'd go quiet for 15 minutes then take 4 marks inside a 6 minute burst. Although he lacked pace his ability to make contests, take contested marks and turn games was attractive. The theory being that if he could build stamina, and stay in the game, he would be a damaging CHF similar to Nick Holland.

If Watts was in the draft this year ... who can tell. There haven't been really any examples of the mature CHF being in the draft other than perhaps Fitzgerald a few years back but he was starring in the SANFL.

I'd consider Kennedy, Ryder, Clark, Dowler and Hughes the five potential CHFs in this draft. I think Watts having been found out a bit for pace and mobility would go after them ... probably 20-25 territory.

 

[Weaver]

oh ok thanks, has the kid got any good benifets ive heard his bad ones,what are his strengths sezzac?he must have some to make it as far as he has?and do you think he will get picked up? what are some other players in the draft that are a similar player?

The problem often is that many people watch only a handful of players. They then make an assessment of players against some 'measure' in their own mind and say "this guy is top-10" or "this guy is top-30", or "this guy is a rookie chance". They never actually go through the process of putting the top-30 together and never have to squeeze their 50 "definate" top-30s into 30 picks.

When you ask about similar players that is where you start seeing why some guys won't be included in a mock draft.

Grigg is a wingman or HBF. He is extremely light and has yet to really tear-up games. He has had some good quarters, he has shown some glimpes, but he is yet to put together a 4-quarter 35 touch performance which elite juniors eventually do.

His pace is good, but not great by the standards of AFL wingers and flankers. His kicking is good, but again not great. He is the sort of kid that you put a tick against as one to keep watching but feel he has to do more to get picked up.

How many winger / flankers are going to be picked up? Light-bodied, outside guys who rely on their pace and kicking?

Well in this phantom draft I ordered them something like

Ellis, Oakley-Nicholls, Muston, Gamble, Casserley, Grigg, McHugh and Thornton.

I put your guy down as perhaps the 6th-ish pure wingman available ... and still cop a serve.

I've said it before and will say it again. If there are 6-8 'roles' (positions if you prefer) in footy and only 60-ish draft picks ... if a player isn't in the top half dozen in his spot then the chances are he will be struggling to get drafted.

 

[bluecamel]

Nice work Weaver, thanks (I haven't read all 19 pages, just the first few posts).

To my mind Carlton should take Murphy at #1. I understand your reasoning though and if Kennedy went first and turned out to be a gun then we'd all be happy. However, maybe I've been seduced by the hype, but IMO a club with early picks should select the BEST player AVAILABLE, with almost no regard for their list's requirements. I know this may sound odd, but find me a team that would not want Chris Judd if they already had a dearth of midfield talent, or a Nick Riewoldt if they were well stocked with talls. Every club needs talent, and the time for speculating is not with sub 10 draft picks. Murphy is supposed to be the best guy in the draft, if that is the case, he should go at #1.

 

[atpp]

I've said it before and will say it again. If there are 6-8 'roles' (positions if you prefer) in footy and only 60-ish draft picks ... if a player isn't in the top half dozen in his spot then the chances are he will be struggling to get drafted.

This is an important consideration. However clubs seem to look at versatility more and more. Take Embley at West Coast, Burton at the Crows, as examples. as juniors they were playing as key position players but now are seen as very flexible. Draftees that can play a range of positions yet do not make the top 6 in any one position will be drafted. So 190cm plus and good endurance and OK speed can see players go from wing to CHF to midfield to 3rd defensive tall. Draft camp included a number of these who will be in the mix, that is, seen by at least 5 clubs as been versatile at a young age.