Weaver mock draft

[ThePope]

Doing an update in the next day or so Weaver or are you happy with Kennedy at #1?

 

[Effes]

1. Josh Kennedy – Carlton
Can play CHF or CHB and will be ready to play quite quickly. Good leap and covers a lot of ground, and can take a contested mark. Being able to apprentice in the backline for 2-3 years is an asset. As much as the Blues might want Murphy their bigman stakes need surgery. If they take the best KP player first they are guaranteed one of Murphy, Ellis or Hurn at 4. If they take Murphy first they may leave the draft with two midfielders or have to take Clarke at 4. Kennedy first is good strategy in my book (can’t see Kennedy slipping past the Hawks at 3 who will want to replace Hay).

2. Marc Murphy - Collingwood
Genuine football-smart ball winning rover who makes good decisions and runs to dangerous positions on the ground. Good clean hands and handy around the stoppages. Can kick a goal and is a solid kick. Has maturity and some leadership skills. Will play fairly early and looks a good option to replace Burns. Has a little hint of Cousins in the way he plays, nice upright running style with his eyes always looking down field. Hurn may appeal to them as a typical Collingwood midfielder but Murphy is a better player and more versatile. Hurn isn’t going to break a game open, Murphy might.

Very good result

 

[windsock]

I would say that, albeit in a tough draft, Weaver had a stinker!

 

[White Czar]

6. Cleve Hughes – Hawthorn
Franklin shapes as more a mobile flanker, and Roughead probably a CHB. Hughes is more a genuine contester and corridor player who works hard to secure front position and mark in his hands. He and Tom Murphy in the key spots with Franklin playing off them looks a good future forward line. Hughes is not an eye-catcher, more a John Barker type who can create crumbs and do OK when the ball hits the deck. Good long kick. Brings running players into the game with handball – that ability probably suits him to CHF more than FF. What they do here would depend on whether they go or short at 3. If Kennedy falls to 3 they could take Swallow here. Hughes and Dowler are similar and both need gym work.


10. Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls – Fremantle
A genuine wingman with real flair. Kicks the ball well, has some tricks and pace, and at 186cm has enough height that you can kick to him on the switch of play. Wide open spaces of Subi should suit. Freo need some extra dash through the middle and someone to kick to leading forwards. Again being a local boy won’t hurt. Ryder might be the other option for them to add depth to the forward line. Oakley-Nicholls’ flair will appeal to a rather pedestrian, workmanlike outfit.

34. Travis Casserley - West Coast
Shapes as a Subi special. Long striding, running wingman who likes to carry the ball and kick long. Needs to improve man on man work but looks the kind who would thrive in space and the Eagles have taken his type quite a lot in the past, store them away and bring them out in three years. Still very light and very much a receiver. Not too many pacy options left though. Kristian Thornton is another similar player, could look at either. Hard to call what the Eagles need so they will probably go best available all the way

 

[Portia]

Well, he got Nick Lower right

 

[Silvagnis]

Well we got the best player in the draft and the best tall who he wanted to take at one instead of Murphy.

So we did great since Hurn went to the Eagles at pick 13 not 4 where he predicted.

 

[Turbocat]

15. Shaun Higgins – Geelong
Never frightened of taking locals and have had a lot of success with them. Higgins has some dash and footy smarts and becomes another running option. A good kick and gives them some insurance against injuries. Likes a goal and will probably understudy Chapman and G. Ablett on the forward flank. May feel that they need a tall forward and that good midfielders will be available at their next pick. Probably hoping that Ryder tumbles. May have to reach for Grima.

31. Rhan Hooper – Geelong
Probably hoping to find a bigman who can play forward. Might look at West if he drops this far. No clear candidates at this point though and they may go for a midfielder instead. Hooper is a good midfielder of flanker with some pace and good foot skills. Probably could do with winning more footy, and at 176cm might not be considered this early. Unlike many junior players shows some willingness to play accountable football and looks to have good instincts about knowing when to stay-with and when to run-off his man.

35. Jon Simpkin– Geelong
Clever around the contests with tricky hands and good decision making. Genuinely two-footed which is a big plus, deceptively quick and loves a goal which is important in a midfielder. Has enough pace and stoppage work to appeal. Moves well in traffic and normally finds the thread-the-needle handball to get a team going. Ended season poorly and his goalkicking, which had been solid, seemed to abandon him a little.

47. Matt White – Geelong
Missing the bulk of the finals series and the under-18 championships will see his stock fall and he will probably be a rookie-list candidate as a consequence. Has good allround game and the stamina to keep going for a full match. AFL clubs love pace in their utilities and he certainly has that.

63. James Wall – Geelong
Tall, thin forward who was a surprise inclusion in the Metro squad but finished the season well. Played one good final at CHF. Presents well and is good at ground level. The lack of bulk for a top-age player is a concern. If the Cats have taken midfielders early (which their picks almost demand) they may be getting itchy and have to take a potential forward. Could also fill-in in the ruck if he ever bulked up.

I'm not sure if I'm totally convinced with the Cats picks Weaver. The names don't worry me as much as having 4 picks below 183cm. They previously have elected to wait to pick shorter players with Rookie picks, but they may pick short for one or two but 4?. I also doubt they will use P5
To me ,because there has been speculation that Higgins is considered too similar to others on our list and we most likely not pick him., id say if they dropped as you have picked, Id say that Thomas or Varcoe would be more likley as our first pick.

Weaver , I was looking around looking for some assements on Grima and found this.Id like to say how clever I was with the Varcoe tip but really id say I was far more wrong than right. You might not have picked the players but you got the trend and the number We went small.Varcoe, Gamble and Stokes.
I do think they had McKinley in their sights and when missed him went for Owen.I also think after we lost Chambers we did have to get a tall. I know you it was ordinary effort but time will tell.

Back to Grima. It seems that he was consistantly picked to go in the Nat Draft.Yourself at 25,Lingsafce at 17,Missionpossible at 43, Currsed Cat at 33 to name a few. How do you see him as a Rookie pick? How long do you think it will take to get something from him?

 

[White Czar]

6. Cleve Hughes – Hawthorn
Franklin shapes as more a mobile flanker, and Roughead probably a CHB. Hughes is more a genuine contester and corridor player who works hard to secure front position and mark in his hands. He and Tom Murphy in the key spots with Franklin playing off them looks a good future forward line. Hughes is not an eye-catcher, more a John Barker type who can create crumbs and do OK when the ball hits the deck. Good long kick. Brings running players into the game with handball – that ability probably suits him to CHF more than FF. What they do here would depend on whether they go or short at 3. If Kennedy falls to 3 they could take Swallow here. Hughes and Dowler are similar and both need gym work.

10. Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls – Fremantle
A genuine wingman with real flair. Kicks the ball well, has some tricks and pace, and at 186cm has enough height that you can kick to him on the switch of play. Wide open spaces of Subi should suit. Freo need some extra dash through the middle and someone to kick to leading forwards. Again being a local boy won’t hurt. Ryder might be the other option for them to add depth to the forward line. Oakley-Nicholls’ flair will appeal to a rather pedestrian, workmanlike outfit.

33. Angus Graham - St Kilda
Will the Saints take some ruck insurance? Probably don’t have to use this early a pick but may go for Graham. Played mostly schoolboys so is a bit underdeveloped and needs a fair bit of schooling. At 198 he has enough height and can pinch hit up forward too. A little inconsistent. Having tried to combine school in the county, rep footy with Tassie and club footy in Melbourne he is someone who could blossom in a more settled environment. Trent West would be the other contender but he tended to go missing in big games.

34. Travis Casserley - West Coast
Shapes as a Subi special. Long striding, running wingman who likes to carry the ball and kick long. Needs to improve man on man work but looks the kind who would thrive in space and the Eagles have taken his type quite a lot in the past, store them away and bring them out in three years. Still very light and very much a receiver. Not too many pacy options left though. Kristian Thornton is another similar player, could look at either. Hard to call what the Eagles need so they will probably go best available all the way.

47. Matt White – Geelong
Missing the bulk of the finals series and the under-18 championships will see his stock fall and he will probably be a rookie-list candidate as a consequence. Has good allround game and the stamina to keep going for a full match. AFL clubs love pace in their utilities and he certainly has that.

Good to see. Richmond have done well.

JON = Height 188.1
(http://richmondfc.com.au/default.asp?pg=players&spg=playerprofile&personid=358804)

 

[sydney eagle]

Didn't pick West Coasts drafts at all well. Had two of the players going to carlton and one to Collingwood !

 

[cs61]

I respect Weaver's opinion but its weird how people read mock drafts and footydraft to determine when they have 'done well' out of a draft.

 

[MCGBEAST]

52. Brad Kelleher – Sydney
His versatility may appeal to the Swans. He was shaping as a handy FF until an absence of FBs saw him drafted into the Vic Metro squad as a defender. Took to the role instantly and finished the season strongly. Not quite tall enough, but has a good leap to compensate and gets the spoil in and does well at ground level. He is no Leaping Leo Barry, but a blue-collar version which might be worth a late gamble. Has shown some hints that he could play on a wing in time as well. Injury in finals series might hurt him.


Weaver you had originally listed Brad Kelleher @ 52. Most people expected that he would have a good chance to be drafted but was not. This player made Vic Metro, where he soundly thrashed two players who were both subsequently drafted, (Jay Neagle & Mitchell Clark), was named at full back in the TAC Cup team of the year, and was formally interviewed by at least five AFL clubs. He also kicked 42 goals for Eastern Ranges in half a season on the forward line. Do you have a theory on why he was not drafted as it is a mystery to me and many others?

Also, do you know if Wiseby had a profile on Kelleher?

 

[Weaver]

Beating Neagle and Clark won't be rated as much of an achievement. Clark was horrendously bad, and Neagle is the luckiest guy on an AFL list.

Eventually I think he misses out because he doesn't have an AFL position. He did OK at FB but isn't really big enough, plenty of small fullbacks get overlooked every year. He did OK at FF but AFL clubs rarely recruit specialist FFeds. Didn't play enough onball to show whether he could play as a winger or flanker. Thow in the injury and he obviously hadn't done quite enough.

 

[MCGBEAST]

Would like to correct you, Kelleher had no injuries in 2005

 

[Bentleigh]

6. Cleve Hughes – Hawthorn
Franklin shapes as more a mobile flanker, and Roughead probably a CHB. Hughes is more a genuine contester and corridor player who works hard to secure front position and mark in his hands. He and Tom Murphy in the key spots with Franklin playing off them looks a good future forward line. Hughes is not an eye-catcher, more a John Barker type who can create crumbs and do OK when the ball hits the deck. Good long kick. Brings running players into the game with handball – that ability probably suits him to CHF more than FF. What they do here would depend on whether they go or short at 3. If Kennedy falls to 3 they could take Swallow here. Hughes and Dowler are similar and both need gym work.

8. Beau Dowler – Richmond
Shapes as a mobile CHF in the Ash Hansen style. One who can push up to the wings and mark. Probably best set-shot in the draft so doesn’t need a heap of chances to kick goals. Lacks a little fire in the belly at times and can be hesitant to work the corridor and play in front. Ryder is the other contender but they took a ruckman / forward in Pattison last year and would like someone who covers more ground this year. Needs more gym time than most of the other top-tier bigmen but Richmond are in a re-tooling phase so won’t mind. Can also play CHB which will appeal to the Tigers who have veterans Kellaway and Gaspar to plan for

 

[SimonH]

9. Austin Lucy – Brisbane
Homegrown FB / CHB with genuine size and quite a bit of mobility. Has a good attack on the ball and is prepared to run the ball out of defence. Thumping kick, needs to hit a few more targets. Bit of a question mark over whether he might end up a bit too bulky and lose some mobility, already a big unit. Have been recruiting midfielders in the main and need to plan for Leppitsch, Michael and Bradshaw retiring. Like his loud voice and organising ability in the backline. Being local won’t hurt. Perhaps a little behind Spangher and Bower at the moment, but has more upside going forward.

I wanna know, what the hell happened? Slipping from #9 in a well-informed mock draft to #66 would raise eyebrows, although it's hardly unheard of (see also: Heath Grundy 2004). But to be dumped after 12 months on top of that seems very strange, given that these kids are largely drafted on potential rather than ability to play firsts straight away. Was Weaver wildly optimistic in his assessment of Lucy's potential?; has he gone downhill badly in the last 12 months?; or are Essendon just weird?

Also, I can't believe that almost every 17/18 year old who doesn't get drafted when first eligible, does nothing in the next year to indicate they can make the grade. You'd expect that at least 50% of 'em would become more mature and closer to the mark in the intervening year. And yet, in the 2006 draft discussions, one rarely hears anything about Jon Cheetham, Matt Seal, Scott Bricknell, Brad Kelleher, Chris Cain, Andrew Ainger, Rohan McHugh (who Weaver even described as one to be 'stolen from the 2006 draft' if he was to be taken last year), Grae Grant and Bronik Davies, among a host of names that were put up as possibles for the 2005 draft but not taken.

There are some odd exceptions to the rule like Jesse White (to some extent) and Shaun Grigg. But have all of the names listed above (and plenty not listed) really failed to kick on over the last 12 months, or is everyone so obsessed with finding the hottest young talent on the factory floor, that they ignore the improved 19 yos who are possibly a better bet?

 

[Weaver]

There are some odd exceptions to the rule like Jesse White (to some extent) and Shaun Grigg. But have all of the names listed above (and plenty not listed) really failed to kick on over the last 12 months, or is everyone so obsessed with finding the hottest young talent on the factory floor, that they ignore the improved 19 yos who are possibly a better bet?

The 18 year old kid who gets drafted goes into a full-time professional enviroment. Specialist coaches, video analysis, weights coaches, nutritionists, sports psyches etc. Working on his body, skills and footy knowledge 30+ hours a week.

The kid who is 18 and doesn't get drafted goes into a state league. Trains 3 times a week and is at Uni. Doesn't have the specialist coaching etc. That kid if anything is going to fall further and further behind (they will improve more quickly than he will) every year he is out of the AFL system.

 

[gandaal]

1. Josh Kennedy – Carlton
Can play CHF or CHB and will be ready to play quite quickly. Good leap and covers a lot of ground, and can take a contested mark. Being able to apprentice in the backline for 2-3 years is an asset. As much as the Blues might want Murphy their bigman stakes need surgery. If they take the best KP player first they are guaranteed one of Murphy, Ellis or Hurn at 4. If they take Murphy first they may leave the draft with two midfielders or have to take Clarke at 4. Kennedy first is good strategy in my book (can’t see Kennedy slipping past the Hawks at 3 who will want to replace Hay).

2. Marc Murphy - Collingwood
Genuine football-smart ball winning rover who makes good decisions and runs to dangerous positions on the ground. Good clean hands and handy around the stoppages. Can kick a goal and is a solid kick. Has maturity and some leadership skills. Will play fairly early and looks a good option to replace Burns. Has a little hint of Cousins in the way he plays, nice upright running style with his eyes always looking down field. Hurn may appeal to them as a typical Collingwood midfielder but Murphy is a better player and more versatile. Hurn isn’t going to break a game open, Murphy might.

 

[scooter600x]

I wanna know, what the hell happened? Slipping from #9 in a well-informed mock draft to #66 would raise eyebrows, although it's hardly unheard of (see also: Heath Grundy 2004). But to be dumped after 12 months on top of that seems very strange, given that these kids are largely drafted on potential rather than ability to play firsts straight away. Was Weaver wildly optimistic in his assessment of Lucy's potential?; has he gone downhill badly in the last 12 months?; or are Essendon just weird?

To drop that much in the draft makes me think a few recruiters thought he might have attitude problems.

To get delisted after just the one year makes me think he certainly had attitude problems.

 

[SimonH]

The 18 year old kid who gets drafted goes into a full-time professional enviroment. Specialist coaches, video analysis, weights coaches, nutritionists, sports psyches etc. Working on his body, skills and footy knowledge 30+ hours a week.

The kid who is 18 and doesn't get drafted goes into a state league. Trains 3 times a week and is at Uni. Doesn't have the specialist coaching etc. That kid if anything is going to fall further and further behind (they will improve more quickly than he will) every year he is out of the AFL system.

Very fair point. But that's a bit of a chicken & egg issue where you're drafting for potential, which is not quite the same thing as proven performance. Where the average AFL career is miles shorter than a decade (so as to make being one or two years older effectively irrelevant in terms of the potential value from the player), in either event you're asking someone who's not currently operating at a professional level, to step in and start doing so.

If you have a certain baseline ability, fitness and attitude, it's certainly possible to step up to the higher level pretty rapidly, even though you've theoretically fallen so far behind the national-champs, AIS-Academy tracked 18yos as to not be in the same ballpark as them: for example, Luke Vogels.