Week 1 Finals Tips and Crowd Expectations

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Some really silly over-the-top crowd estimatations here. As usual.

St.Kilda-Sydney will be lucky to crack 35,000 going by past Etihad finals crowds. Low 30,000's will probably be the go. 30-32,000.

Coll-WCE will get about 64,000
Gee-Haw will get about 72,000
Carl-Ess will get about 80,000

The winners? Hawthorn, Collingwood, St.Kilda, Carlton.

Highly doubtful, trust me when I say there is a decent amount of Bloods contingency in Melbourne ;) ...and they + many Sydney-siders will venture to Docklands to support the Swans vs. Saints who should get at least 30+ of their own members/supporters along, around 40k+
 
Highly doubtful, trust me when I say there is a decent amount of Bloods contingency in Melbourne ;) ...and they + many Sydney-siders will venture to Docklands to support the Swans vs. Saints who should get at least 30+ of their own members/supporters along, around 40k+

Is this the same Sydney Swans who drew 32,910 in 2001 at Etihad to the 6v7 final versus Hawthorn?

Even my own mob, Essendon, with our massive supporter base only drew 37,475 versus West Coast at Etihad in the 5v8 final in 2002.

I would be staggered if the St.Kilda-Sydney match drew more than 35,000 people.

Why would it get 40,000, remembering that both clubs have smallish supporter bases? 40,000? Based on what?
 

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Geelong def Hawthorn by 42 pts (89k)

Collingwood def West Coast by 66 pts (90k)

St. Kilda def Sydney by 13 pts (40k)

Carlton def Essendon by 2 pts (95k)
 
Geelong - 2 points (85,000)
Collingwood - 75 points (74,000)
St Kilda - 19 points (46,000)
Carlton - 25 points (92,000)


Pretty close to my predictions. Swans are playing pretty good though...Luckily the saints got the home final!!! Agree with the rest :)
 
I tipped the Eagles because


1. Form! No matter if it's a dead rubber or if you have players out, you NEVER want to see your side bend over and put in a completely insipid performance. I am in no way a Buckley fan, but I never ever saw him put in a performance like many Pies players did on Friday night. He'd be off that. Champion players dont turn up to stargaze and get bent over. It is weak. Fair enough get beaten by 6 goals, but to get flogged by 16 goals, dead rubber or not, is insipid and weak and not something I would imagine Buckley would be thrilled about or would want to tolerate. So for l the blase Pies nuffies on this board telling us it is fine and a dead rubber blah blah blah, Id imagine the coaching staff would be feeling somewhat differently about it. Cats may have gotten done by the Swans last week, but that is entirely different. An emotional Swans side got up having less scoring shots by a small margin. Pies for a champion team showed no pride at all.

2. Jolly looks cooked. And not just on Fridays performance. He has looked stuffed for weeks. He is a massive key for the Pies and his form or injury or whatever it is would be a massive concern. And again, for the 1 eyed Pies assuring themselves he will just "flick the switch", if you have played any footy yourself, you would know that it just simply doesn't work like that. There is a reason Wood has played so much footy lately. Jolly is stuffed and the thought of him rucking solo against Cox and Nic Nat is frightening. Pies will get slaughtered in the ruck.

3. Other injury concerns. The Pies have an AMAZING list, but at the moment, there are some huge concerns for them. Yes everyone has players carr
ying niggles, but the Pies seem to have a few that are lingering a little too long. They'd be concerned about Davis missing a couple of weeks in a row. Maxwell if he comes up will not be 100% - in fitness or form. He was horrible before the injury and could come in as skipper and be a liability. Not ideal. Daisy missing this final hurts enormously. He is imo their 2nd most important player, behind Cloke. Heater coming in after 8 weeks out. And dont give us the arrogant "they had a great match practice at GP on Friday. Not remotely the same to finals footy on the G. Too many players out of form or under duress fitness wise.

In thinking about all this as I type it, I am remembering the Cats season in 2008 and it was similar - scarily so. lost one game for the h&a season and then came into the finals having tapered off in form a little - as the Pies have -(lets be really honest here the Pies first half of the season was way more impressive to watch than the last 6 t


8 weeks - a close win over Bris and other good but not amazing victories) and injury concerns with Ottens (see Jolly) and the improving form of a classic rival from previous years (Hawks being the Cats rival in in 08, Cats being the Pies rival in 11)

History has a funny way of replicating itself. Now I could be totally wrong and probably am, but I am seeing genuine issues for the Pies that anyone without black and white glasses would also be seeing. The Eagles wont get a better chance to roll the Pies on the G than they will this weekend.



I think what Friday did was make the cats pussy whipped, meaning they r all delusional, they will be the most disappointing side in Sept.... you can bookmark that now..... ill explain once they r out...
 
I think people are overpredicting crowds, particularly Collingwood's. Finals crowds last year were a little bit down, and ticket prices are quite high. For example, Geelong St Kilda on the Friday night last time saw 63,608 while Collingwood Western Bulldogs was 66,545. Adding to this the terrible forcast (11 and 12 degrees with rain for Friday and Saturday respectively)

I think you're right, somewhere in the 60's for the Collingwood game is a reasonable estimate. Although regarding the weather forecasts, last year about an hour or two before the Pies v Bulldogs final a very heavy rainstorm swept over the city, I remember because I got caught in it as I walked across Barak bridge (no shelter there :().

It was a cold wintry night, and although the rain died off once the match started, it was still very cold. I happened to be seated right under the dripline on level 2. I'd say the weather probably kept a few thousand away that night, although it doesn't disprove what you are saying about this years game.
 
Geelong by 18 points - Great side. Great defense. I saw Taylor was injured. That could be an issue for them.

Collingwood by 33 points - I think we'll bounce back after a shocker last week. The Eagles are a top side who have come a long way. It will be a good game.

St.Kilda by 9 points - The Saints were very good on saturday. This will be a very close game.

Carlton by 30 points - The blues comfortably in the last game. They are the better side and had a great year, were unlucky not to get fourth. The Bombers only just snuck in and I can't see Carlton losing this.
 
I tipped the Eagles because...
Righto then, lets see if you're accurate in your assessment.
1. Form! No matter if it's a dead rubber or if you have players out, you NEVER want to see your side bend over and put in a completely insipid performance.
Well of course such a loss is absolutely inexcusable and unacceptable, and it seemed that Collingwood were satisfied with simply studying Geelong at their very best. That said, Collingwood's form was 14 successive wins prior to last week, and is now 20 wins from 22 matches. That's pretty good form.
2. Jolly looks cooked. And not just on Fridays performance. He has looked stuffed for weeks.
He doesn't looked "cooked," and it's completely inaccurate to say he has looked "stuffed" for weeks! Since he returned from Arizona, his weekly SuperCoach points have been, 117, 114, 89, 66, 102, 95, 99, 92, 80. He had a bad match last week with only a score of 46, but that's all it was.
3. Other injury concerns. The Pies have an AMAZING list, but at the moment, there are some huge concerns for them.
All teams have injury concerns at this time of the year. This time last year, Alan Didak was in fantastic form all season, but had just torn his pectoral muscle from the bone. There isn't anything as serious at Collingwood at the moment, just a few players getting over minor problems. I don't think Nick Maxwell will play, but Leon Davis was only rested last week, so he'll return.

Heath Shaw will also return and perform straight away, whilst Chris Tarrant and Ben Johnson will be available for selection. Chris Dawes and Sharrod Wellingham are both fit, and hopefully last weeks match was a hit out they needed to play much better next week. Everything always looks bad after such a loss, but things often look better as the week progresses, and a win can change everything again.
In thinking about all this as I type it, I am remembering the Cats season in 2008 and it was similar - scarily so. lost one game for the h&a season and then came into the finals having tapered off in form a little - as the Pies have
You're way off. In 2008, Geelong won their last five home and away matches by an average margin of 70 points, including a 99 point win in their final match! They then won the Qualifying Final the following week against St.Kilda by 58 points! The Cats weren't tapering off! They were flying at the time and should have won the premiership, but they had the wrong attitude by publicly stating they were trying to win the premiership for the players only. That's a major reason they weren't at their best on Grand Final day.
History has a funny way of replicating itself.
What a load of rubbish! History replicates itself far less often than not, and it doesn't have anything to do with what happens in the future of course. If it did, then St.Kilda would have won last years premiership. If West Coast wins on Saturday, it will have nothing to do with history, and it will be because they're the better team on the day. The only influence history has is that clubs should learn from the past. Both their own results, and those of other teams as well.
The Eagles wont get a better chance to roll the Pies on the G than they will this weekend.
Is that right? They're not going to get the warm and dry conditions they perform their best next week. The Friday and Saturday forecast is for cool and wet weather, and Collingwood has been terrific in those conditions this year. So taking all of that into account...

Geelong v. HAWTHORN (5 points)
COLLINGWOOD v. West Coast (33 points)
St.Kilda v. SYDNEY (3 points)
CARLTON v. Essendon (1 point)
 
I think what Friday did was make the cats pussy whipped, meaning they r all delusional, they will be the most disappointing side in Sept.... you can bookmark that now..... ill explain once they r out...

Why don't you tell us now? Anyone can look like a genius after the fact, but if you're so sure of yourself, you should be confident enough to tell us all exactly why we'll be the most disappointing side in the finals right now.
 

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Surprised at the amount of people tipping west coast, I suggest a lot of it is due to the hatred of pies though.

Some of the defensiveness of the pies supporters is hilarious, if I were a pies supporters I would confidently sit back and say judge them on this weeks performance all things being equal the reigning wooden spooners should be no chance to beat the reigning premiers on their favorite ground in front of their rabid homes crowd.
 
Surprised at the amount of people tipping west coast, I suggest a lot of it is due to the hatred of pies though.
I'm actually surprised by the lack of people tipping West Coast (only 6 or 7 opposition supporters) considering that most picking them is due to a hatred of Collingwood. I expected more to tip them.
 
Geelong v. Hawks (5 points) Like the cats form and reckon they will go all the way.
Pies v. West Coast (8 points) Never been a fan of taking a lot of injured players into finals and thats what it looks like they are doing and although the media does like to blow up every minor injury close to finals i still think the might be going in a little under done.
St.Kilda v. Swans (18 points) Although they have be a bit hot and cold during their last few games i think at home they should win.
Blues v. Essendon (27 point)Have to back in my own team:p. Although if blues do win i'm not going to be shocked
 
Hawks by 9. Just a totally Biased tip ! Crowd 96,500

Pies by 5. Eagles will give them the fright of their life. Won after 5 minutes each way. Crowd 96,501

Saints by 1 point. Won in Triple Over Time. golden point ! Crowd 52,500

Bombers by 8. No reasoning. Crowd 96,502
 
Cats v Hawks (60 points) - 86k

Pies v Eagles (22 points) - 71k

Saints v Swans (4 points) - 38k

Blues v Bombers (45 points) - 89k
 
Geelong v Hawthorn (27 points) 81k

Collingwood v West Coast (59 popints) 76k

Saints v Sydney (9 points) 43k

Carlton v Essendon (21 points) 84k
 
The weather forecast is not looking good for the weekend.


Geelong Vs Hawthorn 24 pts
73K

Collingwood Vs West Coast 34pts
65K

St Kilda Vs Sydney 13pts
38K

Carlton Vs Essendon 5pts
74K
 

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Week 1 Finals Tips and Crowd Expectations

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