Week 1 Finals Tips and Crowd Expectations

[McCrann]

Is this the same Sydney Swans who drew 32,910 in 2001 at Etihad to the 6v7 final versus Hawthorn?

Even my own mob, Essendon, with our massive supporter base only drew 37,475 versus West Coast at Etihad in the 5v8 final in 2002.

I would be staggered if the St.Kilda-Sydney match drew more than 35,000 people.

Why would it get 40,000, remembering that both clubs have smallish supporter bases? 40,000? Based on what?

There will be 48,000-50,000 there on Saturday.

Why? We don't lose on Saturday nights at Etihad (Not since 2003), there will be a good crowd in there - what right does a team winning 1 match in the first 8 rounds have to host a final? 11/15 ain't bad winning form.

Believe me, this home final wasn't on the cards until a couple of weeks ago.

 

[MrPresident]

Geelong by 20, 84k

Collingwood by 36, 75k

Sydneyby 18, 40k

Essendon by 2, 86k

 

[calyam]

People overestimate the crowds. None of the finals will get over 90. Look at previous years figures.

90k is difficult at the best of times. The only game I think could do it is Carlton vs Essendon.

But I expect we'll get two 80k games and one in the 70s.

 

[scatman john]

Geelong. 26pts. 76k.
Collingwood. 34pts. 68k
Sydney. 9pts. 43k.
Carlton. 14pts. 88k.

 

[Dan26]

There will be 48,000-50,000 there on Saturday.

Why? We don't lose on Saturday nights at Etihad (Not since 2003), there will be a good crowd in there - what right does a team winning 1 match in the first 8 rounds have to host a final? 11/15 ain't bad winning form.

Believe me, this home final wasn't on the cards until a couple of weeks ago.

There won't be 48,000 here. Not a snowflakes chance in hell.

Anyone who thinks there will be a full-house at Etihad is being ignorant of past Etihad stadium finals crowds.

35,000 MAXIMUM, more likely low 30,000's.

Here are the previous Etihad finals crowds (all Elimination finals)

2000 Haw vs Gee 44,709
2001 Haw vs Syd 32,910
2002 Ess vs WCE 37,475
2005 N.Melb vs Port 25,195
2007 Haw vs Adel 36,534

 

[PCORF]

If Collingwood lose and Carlton win you will get a Collingwood vs Carlton semi final.

 

[KissStephanie]

If Collingwood lose and Carlton win you will get a Collingwood vs Carlton semi final.

I thought that went without saying considering the loser of Collingwood v. West Coast plays the winner of Carlton v. Essendon and the loser of Geelong v. Hawthorn plays the winner of St.Kilda v. Sydney.

 

[dook]

Etihad will be a sellout. Possibly biggest finals week crowds ever. Anyone know the record?

Highly unlikely. No matter who plays there it's very hard to fill it. Almost 10% of the capacity is medallion club (5000 seats) and so you need every single one of them to turn up.

 

[Ari]

There won't be 48,000 here. Not a snowflakes chance in hell.

Anyone who thinks there will be a full-house at Etihad is being ignorant of past Etihad stadium finals crowds.

35,000 MAXIMUM, more likely low 30,000's.

Here are the previous Etihad finals crowds (all Elimination finals)

2000 Haw vs Gee 44,709
2001 Haw vs Syd 32,910
2002 Ess vs WCE 37,475
2005 N.Melb vs Port 25,195
2007 Haw vs Adel 36,534

4 out of 5 of those games include an interstate team.

The crowd on Friday night will be huge, if not a sell out then very close to it. I expect people to be turned away.

 

[TheGhostOfJohnBelushi]

Geel over Hawks. Couple of goals. 80k+
Pies over Eagles. 5 to 10 goals. 60k+
Saints over Swans. 4 goals. 25k+
Blues over Essendon. 10 goals. 80k+

Cats/Hawks easily the most attractive game, and can easily go either way. I think the Cats are out for one last flag and will be primed to finally beat Hawthorn in a final after all these years. Rest of the matches will be formulaic (will watch my Eagles in hope, but realistically it will pretty much be the upset of the year for them to knock off Collingwood, even with the year we've had).

 

[Dan26]

4 out of 5 of those games include an interstate team.

The crowd on Friday night will be huge, if not a sell out then very close to it. I expect people to be turned away.

lol. As if a non-knock-out Qualifying final (not featuring any of Ess-Carl-Coll) will sell out. Give me a break.

Last year, Geelong-St.Kilda in week one drew 63,785.

Geelong vs Hawthorn will get a maximum of 75,000. And I mean maximum. Probably around 72,000. Maybe even under 70,000 if the weather is bad, which it will be.

What is it with people overestimating finals crowds? Don't people pay attention to past finals crowds, when making their predictions? Obviously they don't.

 

[SHAKESPEARE]

Geelong vs Hawthorn - 48 Points (88,795)
Collingwood vs West Coast Eagles - 54 Points (72,957)
St Kilda vs Sydney - 12 Points (51,101)
Carlton vs Essendon - 6 Points (91,141)

 

[brad]

lol. As if a non-knock-out Qualifying final (not featuring any of Ess-Carl-Coll) will sell out. Give me a break.

Last year, Geelong-St.Kilda in week one drew 63,785.

Geelong vs Hawthorn will get a maximum of 75,000. And I mean maximum. Probably around 72,000. Maybe even under 70,000 if the weather is bad, which it will be.

What is it with people overestimating finals crowds? Don't people pay attention to past finals crowds, when making their predictions? Obviously they don't.

MCC mustn't have any idea or go by previous crowds either as they've predicted 80K for Friday night and 85K for Sunday.

 

[Matthew2708]

lol. As if a non-knock-out Qualifying final (not featuring any of Ess-Carl-Coll) will sell out. Give me a break.

Last year, Geelong-St.Kilda in week one drew 63,785.

Geelong vs Hawthorn will get a maximum of 75,000. And I mean maximum. Probably around 72,000. Maybe even under 70,000 if the weather is bad, which it will be.

What is it with people overestimating finals crowds? Don't people pay attention to past finals crowds, when making their predictions? Obviously they don't.

Don't know, but these are the 'Melbourne Cricket Club' estimated attendance's.

AFL 2nd Qualifying Final: Geelong Cats v Hawthorn = 80,000
AFL 1st Qualifying Final: Collingwood v West Coast = 65,000
AFL 1st Elimination Final: Carlton v Essendon = 85,000

http://www.mcc.org.au/ Under events, click on the respective game(s).

 

[Dan26]

MCC mustn't have any idea or go by previous crowds either as they've predicted 80K for Friday night and 85K for Sunday.

I don't think Geelong-Hawthorn could possibly get 80,000. Not with the expected bad weather.

It would go against recent historical "finals-week-one" crowds.

 

[SHAKESPEARE]

Don't know, but these are the 'Melbourne Cricket Club' estimated attendance's.

AFL 2nd Qualifying Final: Geelong Cats v Hawthorn = 80,000
AFL 1st Qualifying Final: Collingwood v West Coast = 65,000
AFL 1st Elimination Final: Carlton v Essendon = 85,000

http://www.mcc.org.au/ Under events, click on the respective game(s).

THose estimations are usually spot on

 

[Matthew2708]

THose estimations are usually spot on

I wonder how many people Etihad expects to be at the St Kilda v Sydney. Predictions from this thread have ranged from 25,000 to 50,000 at the moment.

 

[serenityNow]

Geelong vs Hawthorn 35pts- 78K (cats too strong for mine)

Collingwood vs West Coast 62pts- 70K (pies will rock up switched on and mop the floor with the eagles)

St Kilda Vs Sydney 8pts- 42K (will be a real arm wrestle this one, saints at etihad just)

Carlton Vs Essendon 16pts- 92K (should be a huge crowd, too much on the line for carlton, nothing against essendon as i think they're a good side, but if carlton lost this.........it would hit the fan, they simply must win)

 

[stkfc_cowboys]

Geelong v Hawthorn = 9 points - 81,598
Collingwood v West Coast = 31 points - 73,674
St Kilda v Sydney = 17 points - 43,385
Carlton v Essendon = 23 points - 89,421

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

lol. As if a non-knock-out Qualifying final (not featuring any of Ess-Carl-Coll) will sell out. Give me a break.

Last year, Geelong-St.Kilda in week one drew 63,785.

Geelong vs Hawthorn will get a maximum of 75,000. And I mean maximum. Probably around 72,000. Maybe even under 70,000 if the weather is bad, which it will be.

You're comparing Geelong vs Hawthorn at the MCG to Geelong vs St Kilda at the MCG? Hawthorn has 15-20k more members than St Kilda and I think both clubs have more MCC members. It's also a much more attractive game for the neutral supporters, shaping up as the consensus match of the first week.

Geelong vs Hawthorn 21 points (82,000)
Collingwood vs West Coast 43 points (74,000)
St Kilda vs Sydney 10 points (43,000)
Carlton vs Essendon 4 points (93,000)

 

[SHAKESPEARE]

I wonder how many people Etihad expects to be at the St Kilda v Sydney. Predictions from this thread have ranged from 25,000 to 50,000 at the moment.

50k is estimated by the etihad people

 

[Dan26]

You're comparing Geelong vs Hawthorn at the MCG to Geelong vs St Kilda at the MCG? Hawthorn has 15-20k more members than St Kilda and I think both clubs have more MCC members. It's also a much more attractive game for the neutral supporters, shaping up as the consensus match of the first week.

Geelong vs Hawthorn 21 points (82,000)
Collingwood vs West Coast 43 points (74,000)
St Kilda vs Sydney 10 points (43,000)
Carlton vs Essendon 4 points (93,000)

As Far as Geelong-Hawthorn goes you may be right. But I don't think so. I think 75,000, with bad weather bringing it down to 72,000

There are 4 games in Melbourne, remember. That's a lot of games for neutrals to "spread" around.

Your other estimates are ridiculous.

74,000 for Coll-WCE??????? Not in anyone's wildest dreams. Coll-Bulldogs last year only got 66,000 and that's two Victorian teams.

93,000 Ess-Carl? They got that for the Grand Final replay last year. I mean seriously 93,000????? WTF. As if it's going to get that many, get real.

43,000 for St.K Sydney? Since when has an Etihad stadium final featuing a non-Vic side ever got more than 37,000?

Typical over-the-top first week finals crowds estimates. It happens every year, without fail.

 

[Matthew2708]

50k is estimated by the etihad people

Oh, are you serious? That many? Where does it actually say that?

 

[Macca18]

Dan26, stop being a loser crowd expert.

Nobody cares. It's just predictions. Let people exaggerate.

Some of their margin tipping predictions are more ridiculous than their crowd figures.

 

[Matthew2708]

Analysed all 46 Crowd Expectations for Week 1 Finals. (For this thread only)

These are the Averages at the moment:

Geelong V Hawthorn: 81,702 (Min: 66,500 - Max: 91,000)
Collingwood V West Coast: 71,011 (Min: 59,000 - Max: 90,000)
St Kilda V Sydney: 42,943 (Min: 25,000 - Max: 55,000)
Carlton V Essendon: 88,149 (Min: 74,000 - Max: 95,000)