Autopsy Weekly Umpire Analysis

[eaglesfan84]

Can we start a thread for the umpire decisions/non decisions made during the game each week... Analysis... Roasting... Toasting... Accountability... Tracking... Identification... Interpretation... ?

I think this could be a useful rolling thread for fans to vent, praise, criticise and analyse the umpires' performance each game.

We can track which umpires we have each game, track their calls/non calls, track the changes in decisions made across the season to identify trends and maybe get some perspective on why calls were made or not made and how the AFL has altered the rules or interpretation of the rules that affect the playing style of players and teams as a whole.

It's also an opportunity for people to respectfully correct each other if they've misinterpreted something, or give some balanced perspective on how the umpires performance affected our teams game and whether or not we were adjucated fairly.

I'll admit in the heat of the moment I feel we're always treated unfairly (mostly) but on calm reflection the decisions were maybe correct or just not there to begin with.

 

[Godfather32]

Can we start a thread for the umpire decisions/non decisions made during the game each week... Analysis... Roasting... Toasting... Accountability... Tracking... Identification... Interpretation... ?

I think this could be a useful rolling thread for fans to vent, praise, criticise and analyse the umpires' performance each game.

We can track which umpires we have each game, track their calls/non calls, track the changes in decisions made across the season to identify trends and maybe get some perspective on why calls were made or not made and how the AFL has altered the rules or interpretation of the rules that affect the playing style of players and teams as a whole.

It's also an opportunity for people to respectfully correct each other if they've misinterpreted something, or give some balanced perspective on how the umpires performance affected our teams game and whether or not we were adjucated fairly.

I'll admit in the heat of the moment I feel we're always treated unfairly (mostly) but on calm reflection the decisions were maybe correct or just not there to begin with.

Nah, this is a cockburn kind of thing to do

 

[eaglesfan84]

Post Round 12 Totals

 

[eaglesfan84]

Nah, this is a cockburn kind of thing to do

Have you seen Gold Coasts tallies?

261 For - 210 Against at +51 freekicks

Next closest is Essendon
220 For - 188 Against at +32

Gold Coast clearly receiving bias treatment, the AFL's love child.

 

[eaglesfan84]

Geelong and GWS getting crucified. Geelong deservedly so

 

[Doashuey]

Those stats are intersting. Suns getting gobbled, not surprising if the WC game against them was the standard. Rowell was untouchable.
Don't know what the Giants have done to piss them off but, jeez they cop it. Maybe its the lack of negative reinforcement from a team with no fans? Buggered if I know, but they were definitely robbed of a GF berth last year and the umps evidently don't feel any remorse about it.

 

[HoneyBadger35]

For and against stats, as always, paint a very poor picture of the game. 5 in the goal square versus 20 in the back pocket. Were they all there? How many non calls? Over the course a game, generally speaking a pretty small sample size, how often will the count actually be close to even?

So in general I think a thread like this will usually just get captured in the autopsy thread of a given game, because black and white statistical analysis isn’t always as clear as you’d think on a topic like this.

Saints game specifically I can think of a few times I felt aggrieved in the fourth quarter alone, but just one of those things and I’m sure we’ve had equivalent quarters if you ask other boards. But from the fourth alone:

Henry non called HTB is a candidate for worst of the year, especially this week given the crackdown.
New interpretation HTB not paid in their goal square, led to a goal. Wouldn’t have been a howler in previous weeks tbf but was textbook HTB on the video that circulated this week.
Cole cleared out of the way massively by front on/blocking for a Saints goal.
Reid HTB when put in a headlock and tackled by two, and of course Reid downfield.

Of these all but Henry led to goals (from memory, can guarantee the four that did but don’t believe Henry’s led to anything).

In fairness, the other way, Ryan ran waaaaaaay too far which I think was the same passage that ended in Darling’s goal.

But in general I just think umpiring is consistently inconsistent. Watch the fourth quarter of Essendon/Gold Coast and tell me they’re favouring the Big Vic or the AFL pet…and 15 seconds later you’ll look silly because they pluck some bullshit out the other way.

Full time umps please, whether they want to give up their cushy 9-5s or not. Don’t think they’ve got it in for any team in the long run, just think they’re mostly dogshit.

 

[Smotie2]

All I know is the umps are biased against
Us and every chance they get they screw us.

Vic bias is real and may be psychological but some would be blatantly biased against non Vic teams imo.

 

[Barrybran]

The umpires aren't biased against us but the Saints game was not to AFL standard

 

[Cornelius Roy]

First saints goal of the fourth was a clear throw, then Cole gets front on contact then the downfield for the block flopping on Harley.

The holding the ball interpretations were rubbish all day but probably favoured us.

Ultimately saints ran over us and I truely believe they desvered the win, Is just have preferred to have watched that outcome without the umpiring being horrendous both ways when there’s four elite guys out there that can’t officiate as well as theee could in the early nineties.

 

[Carbine Chaos]

All I know is the umps are biased against
Us and every chance they get they screw us.

Yeah nah.

 

[triplegee]

If we're going to do this properly then someone needs to review each decision and non-decision and identify:
1. Incorrect decisions made (and who they favoured)
2. Non-decisions that should have been made (and who they favoured)

This is something the AFL should be doing through an independent body if they want to improve standards in umpiring.

 

[Keys]

If the umpires on the weekend applied the same standard for a holding free kick they did when we played Gold Coast (Rowell) then Harley would have set a world record for free kicks received

He was regularly scragged off the ball around stoppages in the first half as it was then Windhager stepped it up after half time. Received zero protection from the umps

 

[Godfather32]

The umpires aren't biased, they're just not very good and are not helped by the fact that they're trying to adjudicate shit rules which change from week to week.

 

[bzparkes]

On-field umpires are the most useless things in AFL. Just have the goal-review team do it and a guy running around who blows the whistle and calls the play when instructed.

 

[Ochre]

Have you seen Gold Coasts tallies?

261 For - 210 Against at +51 freekicks

Next closest is Essendon
220 For - 188 Against at +32

Gold Coast clearly receiving bias treatment, the AFL's love child.

That would also explain why GWS are in the top 17 for free kick differential then

 

[Carbine Chaos]

Not a huge surprise GC are doing well in free kick differential, they have very good inside mids who get to the ball first and they're also well stocked for talls.

 

[eaglesfan84]

Saints v West Coast

Saints 15 free kicks
West Coast 17 free kicks

Saints game specifically I can think of a few times I felt aggrieved in the fourth quarter alone, but just one of those things and I’m sure we’ve had equivalent quarters if you ask other boards. But from the fourth alone:

Henry non called HTB is a candidate for worst of the year, especially this week given the crackdown.
New interpretation HTB not paid in their goal square, led to a goal. Wouldn’t have been a howler in previous weeks tbf but was textbook HTB on the video that circulated this week.
Cole cleared out of the way massively by front on/blocking for a Saints goal.
Reid HTB when put in a headlock and tackled by two, and of course Reid downfield.

Of these all but Henry led to goals (from memory, can guarantee the four that did but don’t believe Henry’s led to anything).

In fairness, the other way, Ryan ran waaaaaaay too far which I think was the same passage that ended in Darling’s goal.

This is the sort of stuff I'd love to see on this thread, I haven't had time to dissect the calls and non calls that were aggravating but having these sort of these things highlighted each week so we can eventually clearly hold umpires accountable, and even so the AFL if there's a clear bias.

It makes me feel less crazy that knowing that I'm not the only one that notices these things and how impactful they are the game.

 

[eaglesfan84]

If we're going to do this properly then someone needs to review each decision and non-decision and identify:
1. Incorrect decisions made (and who they favoured)
2. Non-decisions that should have been made (and who they favoured)

This is something the AFL should be doing through an independent body if they want to improve standards in umpiring.

Yes this is exactly what I'd like to see, the AFL SHOULD be doing it but they're not, and we don't get any real feedback from them. We need to do it ourselves, maybe it will prove fruitful one day when someone notices the amount of data we put together and we start getting better officiating, fans being understood more.

 

[eaglesfan84]

All I know is the umps are biased against
Us and every chance they get they screw us.

Vic bias is real and may be psychological but some would be blatantly biased against non Vic teams imo.

I'd like to know exactly which umpires crucify us more often and if we keep track of them individually we might be able to put pressure on the club to pressure the AFL to not let these individuals umpire our games.

 

[BeornJ]

Here is my round by round analysis.

I have created an algorithm that takes all calls and non-calls, feeds them through a 'probability matrix' which creates a score between -1 and 1. For example, a correct call that was made by an umpire is 1, and an incorrect non-call that is not made is a -1.

I then take those numbers and use AI to generate a score per umpire, per player, per team, per state, categorised by the primary colour in the team's away shorts.

After I have that final score I then feed those into a 'yellow maggot' formula which produces a score for each round.











Here are the results:



Rd 1: Sh*t
Rd 2: Sh*t
Rd 3: Sh*t
Rd 4: Sh*t
Rd 5: Good
Rd 6: Good
Rd 7: Sh*t
Rd 8: Sh*t
Rd 9: Sh*t
Rd 10: Good
Rd 11: Sh*t
Rd 12: Sh*t

 

[3agles87]

Post Round 12 TotalsView attachment 2009576View attachment 2009584

I have always found the raw numbers of free kicks to be a pretty useless comparator. It would be better to understand the impact free kicks each way have on a game, e.g., free kicks in the forward fifty or to create centre clearances (like the wave of clearances the Suns got against us earlier in the year) are valuable.

Matt Flynn getting awarded a free kick on the weekend when he had just taken a mark contributed nothing to the game.

My guess is that every teams fans will think they end up screwed on this metric, but that no media outlet and AFL not doing this analysis (that I know of) is a poor indictment on the leagues willingness to be transparent.

 

[Smotie2]

I'd like to know exactly which umpires crucify us more often and if we keep track of them individually we might be able to put pressure on the club to pressure the AFL to not let these individuals umpire our games.

It's not hard to assume bias and even if it's not blatant bias.

World cup soccer has neutral umpires.
Premier league as far as I know refs have to declare their allegiance to certain clubs and they don't referee matches involving them.

The AFL needs professional full time umpires and pay them to be full time and also needs a better spread so Victorians don't umpire matches between Vic clubs and interstate clubs.

Have umpires from Adelaide Sydney and Brisbane Umpire ga.es between Collingwood and eagles for example.

If the AFL is serious about fixing umpiring and our league being truly professional then this is the next step to avoid any hint of bias.

Especially in a grand final.

 

[Truckosaurus]

In the AFL's thesaurus 'independent' is listed as a synonym for 'in-house' though.

 

[RookiePick]

Here are the results:

Rd 1: Sh*t
Rd 2: Sh*t
Rd 3: Sh*t
Rd 4: Sh*t
Rd 5: Good
Rd 6: Good
Rd 7: Sh*t
Rd 8: Sh*t
Rd 9: Sh*t
Rd 10: Good
Rd 11: Sh*t
Rd 12: Sh*t

I've run the numbers and the math checks out.