Welcome Welcome to Freo Murphy Reid - pick 17 of the 2024 Draft

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Could have been less that he was disappointed to be drafted to Freo and more that he was disappointed Richmond passed on him so many times.
Thought the same.

A mixture of stress and relief at ending up lower than anticipated, would’ve been glad to get done on the first night, but mixed feelings.
 
That's not the point. The point is, in the last 10 years there has not been a single player (not 1!) drafted as a midfielder who has made a significant impact up forward in their first few years.
So going by those stats, I think the likelihood of Murphy Reid starring in the forward line in his first few years highly unlikely.
The point is barely any draftee makes significant impact in any position for the first few years at Freo lately.

Rucks - No
KPF - Amiss in year 2
KPD - Draper in year 2
Mids - Serong in year 1
Small defenders - ?
Small fwds - ?

Mature age players have had more of a chance but this kid is 18. The key factor in a draftee having impact is opportunity and it is highly unknown if there will be any and preferred there isn’t.

Currently the small forward role has more depth than the KPF so Nicholls might be in line for a game first. We have a fair bit of flexibility though so we will shift known quantities first rather than throw kids to the wolves.
 

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The point is barely any draftee makes significant impact in any position for the first few years at Freo lately.

Rucks - No
KPF - Amiss in year 2
KPD - Draper in year 2
Mids - Serong in year 1
Small defenders - ?
Small fwds - ?

Mature age players have had more of a chance but this kid is 18. The key factor in a draftee having impact is opportunity and it is highly unknown if there will be any and preferred there isn’t.

Currently the small forward role has more depth than the KPF so Nicholls might be in line for a game first. We have a fair bit of flexibility though so we will shift known quantities first rather than throw kids to the wolves.
Serong, Brayshaw, Young, Noddy (had a pretty good first year on the wing), Chapman, Amiss, Draper, Cox, Walker all had a pretty good impact in their first few years from memory, which is not bad hit rate.
 
Oh and having listened to 1/4 century of footballers talk for the last 2 hours, can I say how happy I am he can string a sentence together? Underrated trait. Wallsy definitely has a type.

He fills in space with “sorta” based on that interview, which is a vast improvement on “yeah nah”.


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Serong, Brayshaw, Young, Noddy (had a pretty good first year on the wing), Chapman, Amiss, Draper, Cox, Walker all had a pretty good impact in their first few years from memory, which is not bad hit rate.
Most of them were their 2nd year in the system. Serong was great in his first, no one else.

The team was also crap and could give opportunity. That won’t happen this time.

We just spent a lot on Bolton who can play small forward better than anybody on our team. We’re fine for 2025 but will need to look at more options fir depth once Walters retires unless Delean or the mid/forwards can develop in that position.
 
Watched some longer highlights and have updated my opinion.

Pros
  • I do get the Pendlebury comparisons. He's not as big obvs, but he does have the deftness around contest, the vision and the nicely weighted kicks. The handballs are as advertised - Mint. Doesn't really play like Serong like I initially thought.
  • Has genuine goal sense and appears to be a quality finisher, although they don't show you misses in highlights.
  • Has decent defensive intensity around the contest. Can't tell about his two way running.

RFI
  • I'm 100% convinced that he didn't go higher because of his athletic profile. He's clearly not a burst player. I'd also say that his top speed is lower than the Andy comparison thrown up. Hopefully the reports he's a good distance runner are true as I think he'll need to be.
  • Not expecting him to be a good forward pressure player.
  • No left foot
  • Zero threat in the air

Doesn't have a large frame, so not expecting a Neale/Serong type inside player but then it's hard to know how his body responds. I personally think you want him as first receiver anyway to make use of those handballs and kicks. Also means he can be dangerous from a flank or the wing coming up to stoppage.


I'm not sure how good Pendles would be if only 180cm and fair bit quicker, but I think we're going to find out if he has the drive to succeed.
 
Watched some longer highlights and have updated my opinion.

Pros
  • I do get the Pendlebury comparisons. He's not as big obvs, but he does have the deftness around contest, the vision and the nicely weighted kicks. The handballs are as advertised - Mint. Doesn't really play like Serong like I initially thought.
  • Has genuine goal sense and appears to be a quality finisher, although they don't show you misses in highlights.
  • Has decent defensive intensity around the contest. Can't tell about his two way running.

RFI
  • I'm 100% convinced that he didn't go higher because of his athletic profile. He's clearly not a burst player. I'd also say that his top speed is lower than the Andy comparison thrown up. Hopefully the reports he's a good distance runner are true as I think he'll need to be.
  • Not expecting him to be a good forward pressure player.
  • No left foot
  • Zero threat in the air

Doesn't have a large frame, so not expecting a Neale/Serong type inside player but then it's hard to know how his body responds. I personally think you want him as first receiver anyway to make use of those handballs and kicks. Also means he can be dangerous from a flank or the wing coming up to stoppage.


I'm not sure how good Pendles would be if only 180cm and fair bit quicker, but I think we're going to find out if he has the drive to succeed.
Randomly out of interest has he got no left foot confirmed, or is that a question mark?

His kicking looks pretty natural so half expecting he'd be ok, but given he's good at buying himself time and a good user by hand can understand he's rarely been forced into it along the journey.
 
Randomly out of interest has he got no left foot confirmed, or is that a question mark?

His kicking looks pretty natural so half expecting he'd be ok, but given he's good at buying himself time and a good user by hand can understand he's rarely been forced into it along the journey.
I've literally not seen a single left foot kick in his highlights.

I do suspect that you are correct and his ability to always find space means he doesn't need it at U18s. Reckon he'll get found out at AFL level though. Fixable obviously.
 
I've literally not seen a single left foot kick in his highlights.

I do suspect that you are correct and his ability to always find space means he doesn't need it at U18s. Reckon he'll get found out at AFL level though. Fixable obviously.
it always amazes me how kids can get drafted (even high up in the first round) without being able to use their opposite foot.
If they were hell bent on being AFL footballers, you'd think they would put time into it. Also staggering that the pathways that lead to AFL don't seem to pick up on it and teach it.
 
It's a highlight package, ergo he's not been required to use his non-preferred. But he looks skilled enough generally to use his left adequately if he needs to, although perhaps not to the level of Aker, to whom I compared him earlier!
 

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He fills in space with “sorta” based on that interview, which is a vast improvement on “yeah nah”.


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app
#1 pick Lalor was ridiculously good with a mic and cameras in his face. for someone who hasn't had any/much media training yet.

bigger than the grown men he was talking to and mostly more chill and composed, too.

sorry to go slightly off topic but i predict he's gonna be one of the very good #1 picks.
 
#1 pick Lalor was ridiculously good with a mic and cameras in his face. for someone who hasn't had any/much media training yet.

bigger than the grown men he was talking to and mostly more chill and composed, too.

sorry to go slightly off topic but i predict he's gonna be one of the very good #1 picks.

He had two days to prepare knowing he was the number one pick, including Richmond resources since they told him they were taking him.

Then there's Gold Coast's draftee swearing on tv.
 
Thought the same.

A mixture of stress and relief at ending up lower than anticipated, would’ve been glad to get done on the first night, but mixed feelings.
This.

Given Callum's earlier rankings, the poor guy was probably expecting to be take in the top ten somewhere.

Even if I'm wrong though, he had to sit there and watch himself be passed over 16 consecutive times, including being repeatedly passed over by his favorite team.

The guy had been interviewed by multiple clubs, multiple times... Yet on the night, he sees so many of them decide other players are better.

Then Freo come along and grab him with their very first pick. Once he realised it was Freo that wanted him the most, and made him their highest priority, then he warmed to the idea of moving West pretty quickly.

I reckon his dad realized all this first though, and -- great man that he is -- he led the way emotionally for his son to embrace the idea he would be most valued here (he also turned his back on his traditional club in a heartbeat, all for his son. That's real love folks!)

And please reemember folks -- Reid is just 17/18 yo. Who the hell amongst us had a balanced and mature viewpoint about their dreams and opportunities at that age??? I certainly didn't! 🤣🤣🤣🤣
 
He had two days to prepare knowing he was the number one pick, including Richmond resources since they told him they were taking him.

Then there's Gold Coast's draftee swearing on tv.
Correct, Richmond were around his house on Monday giving him merch and letting him know he was going to be number #1 so he was well prepared.
 
This.

Given Callum's earlier rankings, the poor guy was probably expecting to be take in the top ten somewhere.

Even if I'm wrong though, he had to sit there and watch himself be passed over 16 consecutive times, including being repeatedly passed over by his favorite team.

The guy had been interviewed by multiple clubs, multiple times... Yet on the night, he sees so many of them decide other players are better.

Then Freo come along and grab him with their very first pick. Once he realised it was Freo that wanted him the most, and made him their highest priority, then he warmed to the idea of moving West pretty quickly.

I reckon his dad realized all this first though, and -- great man that he is -- he led the way emotionally for his son to embrace the idea he would be most valued here (he also turned his back on his traditional club in a heartbeat, all for his son. That's real love folks!)

And please reemember folks -- Reid is just 17/18 yo. Who the hell amongst us had a balanced and mature viewpoint about their dreams and opportunities at that age??? I certainly didn't! 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Good perspective. Well said
 
This.

Given Callum's earlier rankings, the poor guy was probably expecting to be take in the top ten somewhere.

Even if I'm wrong though, he had to sit there and watch himself be passed over 16 consecutive times, including being repeatedly passed over by his favorite team.

The guy had been interviewed by multiple clubs, multiple times... Yet on the night, he sees so many of them decide other players are better.

Then Freo come along and grab him with their very first pick. Once he realised it was Freo that wanted him the most, and made him their highest priority, then he warmed to the idea of moving West pretty quickly.

I reckon his dad realized all this first though, and -- great man that he is -- he led the way emotionally for his son to embrace the idea he would be most valued here (he also turned his back on his traditional club in a heartbeat, all for his son. That's real love folks!)

And please reemember folks -- Reid is just 17/18 yo. Who the hell amongst us had a balanced and mature viewpoint about their dreams and opportunities at that age??? I certainly didn't! 🤣🤣🤣🤣
100%. Was also really impressed with his Dad. I've got a son the same age, and also came to your conclusion about the significant effort his Dad put in immediately to assist his son and family to embrace the opportunity from the first nanosecond.
 
100%. Was also really impressed with his Dad. I've got a son the same age, and also came to your conclusion about the significant effort his Dad put in immediately to assist his son and family to embrace the opportunity from the first nanosecond.
Yep kids at that age would have a picture set in their mind on what the draft was going to look like. If it is different, they will take some time to process it emotionally. Lalor at Pick #1 didnt have to worry about that.
 
I will make it really simple. Can you name me a single Dockers player - in the last 10 years - who has been drafted as a midfielder and made a significant impact playing forward in the first few years of his career?
Here are your options by the way:

Lachie Weller.
Connor Blakely.
Ed Langdon.
Josh Deluca.
Darcy Tucker
Harley Balic
Brady Grey
Andrew Brayshaw.
Adam Cerra.
Mitch Crowden.
Tom North.
Sam Swittowski (Was a midfielder in 2014 - his initial attempt to be drafted - but was mainly a small forward when we did draft him as a mature ager. Let's for arguments sake say he was a midfielder in 2017 when we drafted him, which he wasn't, he still has only really come on to be an ok small forward in the last few years.)
Bailey Banfield - Will give you this one, but he still didn't have much of an impact as a forward in his first 3/4 years. Most on here would say he's still not that great as a forward now.
Stefan Giro.
Luke Valente.
Brett Bewley.
Caleb Serong.
Liam Henry. Couldn't get a game in our midfield in his first few years. Was tried up forward. It didn't work.
Jarvis Pina
Tom North
Nathan O Driscoll.
Neil Erasmus
Matthew Johnson.
Cooper Simpson.
The pivot from "midfielders can't play fwd in their first few years" to "well they can, but it hasn't happened for us" is quite something. As a side note, if you're including outside mids when drafted, Freddy was drafted as a winger.

Common sense should tell you that, if on that list the biggest "success" is Bailey Banfield, it's got relatively little to do with fwd aptitude, and way more to do with other factors. Hell, even in Banfield's specific case, he was played as a tagger in his first season, and all his WAFL game time in his 2nd season was as a midfielder. To the extent that he was a success as a fwd, it would've likely happened sooner if developing him as a fwd was our 1st thought.

Looking at some of the "success" stories of mids-turned-fwds, they broadly have the following in common:
  • Actually being talented enough to make it at AFL level (so that rules out about half the players you listed).
  • Aptitude to play fwd and do damage there.
  • Opportunity being open there, at least to a greater extent than in midfield.
  • Playing fwd early. Pretty much off the bat, a lot of them were trained as fwds at their AFL clubs, played fwd in their reserves side, and got their opportunities in the AFL team as fwds (Cooper Simpson this year).
Looking at examples of what failing some of those requirements looks like:
  • Elite young goalscoring mids like Horne-Francis, Warner, Petracca, Dusty, Danger, Bont, etc absolutely would've killed it as pure fwds or fwd-mids. But opportunity was there in midfield. The reason they fail your "test" isn't because they're not good enough, it's because they're too good.
  • Elite young mids like Serong and Brayshaw also probably would've made it as fwds. Bearing in mind it's his 5th season, Serong late on this season in particular did damage when having to rotate fwd off a tag. But again, they fail your test because they're too good, and opportunity opened up in their drafted position.
  • Someone like Erasmus was drafted as a mid-fwd, but for pretty much all his time was trained as and played in Peel as a midfielder. And when he's been trained/played in a different position, it's been wing, not fwd. He fails your test because we never tried to play him fwd in the first place.
Teams that draft midfielders that turn into productive fwds don't do so accidentally or happen upon magic beans. They go about it in a very intentional manner. So if you list a bunch of names where the combination of talent and intent often wasn't there, how can you expect productivity?
 
The pivot from "midfielders can't play fwd in their first few years" to "well they can, but it hasn't happened for us" is quite something. As a side note, if you're including outside mids when drafted, Freddy was drafted as a winger.

Common sense should tell you that, if on that list the biggest "success" is Bailey Banfield, it's got relatively little to do with fwd aptitude, and way more to do with other factors. Hell, even in Banfield's specific case, he was played as a tagger in his first season, and all his WAFL game time in his 2nd season was as a midfielder. To the extent that he was a success as a fwd, it would've likely happened sooner if developing him as a fwd was our 1st thought.

Looking at some of the "success" stories of mids-turned-fwds, they broadly have the following in common:
  • Actually being talented enough to make it at AFL level (so that rules out about half the players you listed).
  • Aptitude to play fwd and do damage there.
  • Opportunity being open there, at least to a greater extent than in midfield.
  • Playing fwd early. Pretty much off the bat, a lot of them were trained as fwds at their AFL clubs, played fwd in their reserves side, and got their opportunities in the AFL team as fwds (Cooper Simpson this year).
Looking at examples of what failing some of those requirements looks like:
  • Elite young goalscoring mids like Horne-Francis, Warner, Petracca, Dusty, Danger, Bont, etc absolutely would've killed it as pure fwds or fwd-mids. But opportunity was there in midfield. The reason they fail your "test" isn't because they're not good enough, it's because they're too good.
  • Elite young mids like Serong and Brayshaw also probably would've made it as fwds. Bearing in mind it's his 5th season, Serong late on this season in particular did damage when having to rotate fwd off a tag. But again, they fail your test because they're too good, and opportunity opened up in their drafted position.
  • Someone like Erasmus was drafted as a mid-fwd, but for pretty much all his time was trained as and played in Peel as a midfielder. And when he's been trained/played in a different position, it's been wing, not fwd. He fails your test because we never tried to play him fwd in the first place.
Teams that draft midfielders that turn into productive fwds don't do so accidentally or happen upon magic beans. They go about it in a very intentional manner. So if you list a bunch of names where the combination of talent and intent often wasn't there, how can you expect productivity?
Mate, it's not really a pivot. We are both Dockers supporters so why not stay relevant to our team. If a young midfielder has not played well in the forward line for us in the last 10 years (when drafted) then the odds that Reid will play well there are pretty low. It's surely not that complicated to understand.

You have landed at Freddy as the only other guy who was drafted as a mid and played well forward. Well, Freddy goes alright at a goal a game, but he's not really shooting the lights out. He's not really a typical forward either. He doesn't lead at the ball carrier much (does occasionally) and he rarely roves packs for goals.

Banfield is pretty much a moot point. He's a utility but a fringe player at best. He has definitely got the most out of his talent so fair play to him but the truth is he probably wouldn't get a game at most clubs and most people on here don't have him in the best 22.

If you go back to the original comment, Snuffy (who I think is a reasonable poster on here) suggested that Reid would not be competing with Fyfe, Serong, Young, Erasmus, Johnson and Brayshaw for a spot in the best 22, but would be competing with Freddy, Sturt, Banfield, Switta, Walters for a spot in the best 22. In other words, he's going to be thrown into the forward line. Now, given that no other midfielder drafted in the last 10 years (bar possibly Freddy) has had any impact playing forward in their first 3/4 years (regardless of aptitude, athletic prowess, opportunity ect)- wouldn't you use common sense and come to the conclusion that the odds of that strategy, either being used by the coaching staff, or indeed working if it is used, is pretty darn remote?
 
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