Preview West Coast Eagles Season 2021 Mega-Preview

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2020 Season Rewind
Aug 14, 2004
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Season 2020 Rewind

2020-Elimination-Paintedit.jpg

Let’s face it, 2020 sucked.

It was to be a year of redemption after the underwhelming finish to 2019. Tim Kelly had been brought in to much fanfare (and great cost) to address the area where the club had been exposed in key matches. With arguably the strongest squad on paper in the competition, 2020 was laid out for the reclamation of the premiership by West Coast.

Then a once-in-a-century viral pandemic threw everything into disarray and brought the season to the brink of abandonment without a ball even being kicked.

Faced with the high likelihood of shutdown periods should the season proceed, it was announced that matches would be reduced in length by 20% (20mins to 16mins) to increase scheduling flexibility and allow for shorter intervals between matches

With broadcast contracts on the line, the administrators of the game kept to Round 1 as scheduled, albeit within the confines of empty stadiums – something that seemed utterly alien at the time, but has grown strangely familiar to us all now.

Before the round of matches was even complete state governments moved to close borders and protect their populations from the novel virus that was spreading around the world. The announcement to suspend the season was made in the minutes prior to the club’s Round 1 match against Melbourne, leading to perhaps the flattest game of top-level football that has ever been played. The final result was a comfortable victory nonetheless, but the players walked off the field with the season hanging in the balance.

Lockdowns ensued. Social distancing became part of everyday language. Players were only able to conduct training in tandem. Administrative deals were renegotiated.

The competition would not resume for 12 weeks; effectively half the season had been lost, and a brave new world was upon us. The fixture was scrapped, with the 22 match regular season cut back to 17, with teams playing each other once and double-ups removed.

With October 24 shaping as the preferred date for a rescheduled Grand Final, it also meant that even without any further COVID-related pauses, the competition had to somehow fit 21 weeks of remaining season into a 20 week period – a circumstance that would come back to haunt us later in the year.


Funnily enough, if the much-hated pre-finals bye were removed from the schedule, there would have been no requirement for matches to be played on shorter intervals in 2020. One match per week for each club (including a single bye) could have been facilitated without issue if the administration had desired to do so.


But the greatest upheaval came from location, rather than schedule. With mandatory quarantine arrangements still applying across several state borders, the logistics of a rebooted competition made traditional travelling schedules impossible, as a two week hiatus would be required each time for any teams entering WA or SA.

In order to keep the season alive, teams would need to be temporarily relocated in order to avoid the disruption of crossing borders and incurring quarantine delays. Despite all of the media speculation and competing options raised, the simplest solution was always going to be the relocation of the four clubs from WA and SA into one of VIC, NSW and QLD where movement restrictions did not apply to the same degree.

Now there was zero chance of having those clubs agreeing to a move to Victoria, for obvious reasons (which is just as well with Victoria itself going into lockdown barely two months later). NSW was lukewarm to the suggestion and was still struggling to keep on top of what was then the worst outbreak of COVID in the country. Queensland on the other hand, actively courted the AFL as the host that will save the season. Crucially, Queensland offered up the use of near-empty resorts on the Gold Coast as facilities where clubs could stay and train – something that had barely even been brought up in discussions with Victoria and NSW. Sensing political opportunity in an election year, the QLD government bent over backwards to ensure that it scored a point over its southern rivals.

Thus, the “hub” was created. Another word which had little meaning prior to 2020, but would take on a life of its own as the season progressed.

Less than a month out from the resumption in June, it was announced that West Coast, Fremantle, Adelaide and Port Adelaide would be residing on the Gold Coast for an undetermined period that would encompass at least 5 weeks.

The revised schedule saw the relocated clubs playing each other on neutral territory and away against the two QLD teams.

Throw in a match-up with Sydney on the Gold Coast, along with the expected announcement of Round 6 against Adelaide, and the initial reaction to the hub was that it was something that could be advantageous to the club. Resumption against a side that had not won in its past 19 outings and four of the five hub opponents missed the top 8 in 2019. At the same time it removed any chance of playing at the SCG or Adelaide Oval during the regular season in 2020 and removed much of the travel burden in playing both QLD clubs away.

Considering the mendacity of the original 2020 fixture, hublife looked like a massive opportunity had been thrown in the club’s direction.

The club would do its time in exile and turn home in time for the Derby with a 5-1 record – maybe even 6-0 if the removal of travel neutralised the home advantage of the Lions. Then a run of home games would all but cement a top 2 place a month out from finals, giving plenty of time to rest key players prior to the final premiership assault.

Well that was the expectation anyway – as we know it didn’t pan out like that.

On the surface the club had a decent record in Queensland, going at almost 60% wins over the past 20 years – not bad for the longest trips in the competition (Brisbane in contrast had less than 30% wins for matches in WA over the same period).

But that record was not what it seemed. Like Stevenson’s Strange Case of Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde, West Coast playing in Queensland was either very good or very bad; and the difference was as clear as day and night – literally.

WCE-in-Qld2000.jpg
West Coast's record at Carrara, on the Gold Coast, is particularly worrisome.


With the sun shining down from above, coming into 2020 the Eagles had a staggering 82% win record (9-2) in Queensland since the year 2000, but that dropped to just 22% (2-7-1) once the stars were out.

Needless to say, the first two matches of the Queensland hub were at night.

And true to form, West Coast were diabolical under the humid haze and dewy glaze of night-time football in Queensland. Despite bookmakers placing the club as short favourites at $1.15 against Gold Coast, they lost by 44 points in a complete capitulation. A 1 goal to 8 second half also raised suggestions that the team may not have retained its fitness as well as it could have during the COVID break. These concerns were given further weight a week later with a 3 goal to 8 second half against the Lions in another one-sided loss.

The poor results provided ample opportunity for media attention of the wrong kind to focus on the club – and there were plenty of pens (and keyboards) waiting in earnest to write how the premiership favourites that broke the bank to get Kelly were looking broke on the field in Queensland. Nor did it matter if the comments had any truth within them – the media narrative had already taken hold and was being repeated with increasing vigour – the Eagles were far too busy complaining about the conditions of the hub rather than focussing upon football…


Let’s not forget the legitimate concerns around having to relocate with no end date, a state government unwilling to make concessions on border crossings, and murmurings at the time about a follow-up hub in Victoria rather than any return to WA.


So with discomfort ringing both on and off the field, Port Adelaide loomed as a crunch match to even the ledger and get the season back on track. However, after 20 minutes of play, the deficit was as many points – and despite a brief fightback, the club imploded in both function and discipline on the way to an embarrassing 48 point defeat.




Jack doesn't like playing on the Gold Coast...


Three losses in succession, by a combined margin of 122 points and languishing inside the bottom four with media speculation in overdrive – it came as a relief that the hub would come to an end against two of the very worst teams in the competition, and followed by a Derby at home.

Sydney and Adelaide were easily dispatched, with the half back line notably adjusted to press much higher up the ground. Returning home after 7 weeks away, the team appeared re-energised and made it 10 in a row against Fremantle; the highlight being centre clearance dominance that lead to 3 goals in less than 90 seconds during the second quarter.

The opponents had been weak, but they served to provide the boost in confidence that had been desperately missing in earlier matches. With more wins than losses, and a long stay in WA guaranteed, the Eagles were once again being mentioned in premiership conversations.

Buckley was too busy playing “tennis” to notice his Magpies getting thumped by 11 goals (Kennedy’s tally of 7 goals being greater than the total sum of goals from Collingwood), and victory over Geelong saw the club break into the top 4. Players that looked on the brink of retirement suddenly turned the clock back 5 years without the burden of travel – we discovered what it must be like to benefit like Richmond.



Naitanui was enjoying arguably the best season of his career.


Three more home games saw three more wins. But the good times could not last forever. Yeo was diagnosed with OP – he would ultimately miss the rest of the season (indeed 7 months on and he is still barely changing direction). And whilst the sun shone upon the club in the WA victory bubble, the rest of the competition was forced to experience fixture compression on a scale that had never been encountered before – it was only a matter of time before those clubs exempted in Perth would be treated similarly.

The “flexible” fixture provided the club with the worst possible outcome in compression available (who would have guessed that?... ) 5 matches in just 18 days, including travel and hubbing back in Queensland again.

That’s right, back in Queensland until finals after just 7 matches in WA from a 17 match season. Despite being located in a state where COVID never broke out, West Coast would play 10 matches in Queensland during the “regular” season – only Brisbane (14), Gold Coast (12) and North Melbourne (11) would play more.

And of course each of those remaining Queensland fixtures just happened to be at night – surprise, surprise… (West Coast were the only club in the competition to finish with 5 consecutive night matches – each of those in Queensland).

Better yet, there was only ever going to be one opponent that the club would be facing at night, on the Gold Coast, on a four day break, involving travel from WA to Queensland – that’s right, Richmond. (The Tigers benefitted from the same situation against Fremantle next round as well, before being granted a 9-5 day break advantage over Geelong – a bank of fixtures that arguably set-up the defence of their premiership).

A 5 goal to 9 second half advantage to Richmond saw the Tigers home comfortably by 27 points and leapfrog the Eagles for a place in the top 4.

Back on the field 5 days later, the club was able to dispatch a hapless Essendon side that were playing their 6th match in 26 days, travelling from Darwin to Brisbane via Adelaide in the last 10 days alone. But the toll was mounting. A growing injury list added to the difficulty of playing a 4th game in 14 days against an opponent (Western Bulldogs) that were coming in rested from a 9 day layoff.

In the end, the result was decided by a non-decision to overturn a goal on review – a ruling that was incorrectly applied as it ignored the width of the padding at the base of the goalpost, which is where the goal line goes back to.

Considering the ineptitude of the call, the brevity in making it which removed alternate views with clearer footage from being considered, and the ramifications it would have on the finals make-up – the sound of crickets from the media in relation to it was deafening.


R16-ARC-Review-Alt-sm.png
Rather than waiting for footage, the ARC Review completely ignored this camera angle entirely.

It was clearly obvious – the sock puppets were more than happy to look the other way on a poor decision, if it meant the Eagles’ chances were thoroughly diminished.


That said, if Darling had managed to convert a relatively straightforward set shot with a minute left, the team would have won, the ARC review would be moot, and a top 4 finish a near-certainty.



Jack still hates the Gold Coast...


And then after barely taking enough time to catch a breath, there was a match against St Kilda coming. Fixture compression had taken a heavy toll and there was a pile of ashes where the midfield used to be. Yeo, Shuey, Sheed, Redden, Cripps, Ah Chee, Hutchings, Jetta, Jones, Johnson and Watson were unavailable. A loss would see the Eagles fall below St Kilda on the ladder, rule out the mathematical chance of a top 4 finish and place the club at legitimate risk of missing the finals entirely should the results of other matches not go their way. The only saving grace was that the Saints were coming into the match on a 4 day break as well.

Against the odds, the tired and beat-up team full of second, third, fourth and fifth stringers prevailed in one of the greatest displays of courage and unity by the club in its history.




Finals were assured for the sixth year in succession (a record currently unmatched by any other club in the competition). With a single match left in the regular season, the chance of a top 4 finish relied upon winning and then hoping for less than a win from Richmond or Geelong. The first part was relatively straight forward – North Melbourne had lost 13 of their past 14 matches, including their last 7 in a row. A poor performance was still enough to get the job done against the awful Kangaroos (it would be the 9th time during the season that the victorious team had scored less than 50 points – it also marked the first time in the club’s history of winning a night match on the Gold Coast).

Richmond easily saw off wooden spoon Adelaide, leaving bottom 4 placed Sydney with the unlikely task of defeating the Cats to keep the Eagles’ hope of a top 4 place alive. The Swans leapt out early and at three-quarter time still held onto a slim lead. Geelong, however took control of the game and the lead followed soon thereafter. In heartbreaking fashion, Sydney had the chance to force a draw in the final seconds – a result that would been sufficient for the Eagles – but couldn’t make the most of it, losing and locking in West Coast into a 5th placed finish and outside of the top 4 by percentage alone for the second year running.

P1-Ladder-Top8.jpg

Now whilst the club was fighting away against the compressed run of matches, the competition itself was trying to work out what was to be done with finals, as Victoria remained in lockdown and the hosting of any matches – including the Grand Final, was simply impossible there.

After a highly questionable tendering process, the heartland states of WA and SA were expectedly snubbed of the opportunity in favour of Queensland – because… well, all the Victorian clubs were already there anyway – besides who wants those pesky Sandgropers and Croweaters to start thinking that they should have the right to host again in the years thereafter, eh?

For the first time in VFL AFL history, the last match of the season would not be in Melbourne – but Victorian fears of revolution were allayed by the transportation of some sacred turf from their football home, to be laid into the Woolloongabba grass – it was ok now, it was the MCG-abba.


Seriously though could you imagine a similar stunt being attempted if the Final was hosted in Adelaide or Perth?... “Nah, mate – that grass aint coming here. Just drop it off over there next to the bin that says f**k off and die…”​


But before the club could get enamoured with dreams of playing more football under lights in a Queensland oil-slick that would bring Clive Palmer joy, there was an Elimination Final against Collingwood to deal with.

By finishing outside of the top 4, the logistical headache of hosting a “home” final during the second or third weeks was never presented, whilst modest relaxations to quarantine that would allow the victor to “bubble” straight from the game onto a flight to Brisbane made the hosting of a knock-out final in Perth possible.

The club was back at home where it was 7-0 for the year and gathering its reserves for what lay ahead. The opponents in contrast, had now gone more than 3 months since they last played at home, had been defeated earlier in the season by the club at the same venue by 66 points and were being forced to abide by strict stay-in-place quarantine protocols as the state government had assigned them as “dirty”. West Coast was rightly, overwhelming favourites, being placed as short as $1.40 by bookmakers.

This was not expected to be a contest as much as it was Base Camp for the climb back up the mountain.

Or that is what we had convinced ourselves of anyway.

In reality the squad was still reeling from the wave of injuries and omissions that occurred during the run of compressed fixtures.

Shuey, Redden, Cripps and McGovern were rushed back into the team as a battle raged against time to get them available, with each probably missing if this were not a match of elimination. At the same time the club incredibly risked coming into the match underdone, having played just a single match in the last 23 days leading up to it.

The nature of the way the Magpies were coming in left them with absolutely nothing to lose and provided them with the perfect “us-versus-everyone” motivation. To put it in the words of Sun Tzu, for Collingwood this was desperate ground – and on desperate ground you fight with everything without delay.

And so they did. Four consecutive goals in the first quarter gave them the belief to compete and the match became a dogfight thereafter. With McGovern looking hampered, Schofield questionably omitted, and Barrass playing one-on-one by starting five metres behind, M.Cox was able to provide a target and contribute three of those four.

In a match of swinging momentum, it was the final execution of chances that proved the difference in the end. An advantage of 20 scoring shots to 16; yet lost the match by a point.

It was the first time that the club would be eliminated without a finals win since 2016.

The match ended in a way that encapsulated the season – a chance was provided to win the game, but the opportunity was not taken.




The option was right, the ball just needed to be moved on sooner.


The club had finished 7th. Five weeks earlier they were favourites for the premiership.

It meant the Eagles had also now missed out on Preliminary Finals in 5 of the last 7 seasons.



Ultimately, despite all of the upheavals and novelties of a most unusual year, 2020 proved to be a copy and continuation of the disappointment from 2019.

The team promised so much, but had failed to make the most of opportunities when they were presented.
 
2020 What went wrong
What went wrong?

2020-GCRowell-Paint2edit.jpg


Forget the hubs. The lack of success of the West Coast Eagles in season 2020 had very little to do with them. The actual reasons are far more complex and frankly, far more worrying – and they go back to the start of 2019 when the premiership gameplan was thoroughly challenged.

The underachievement of the club in 2020 is primarily due to the continued symptomatic and reactive treatment to issues as they are presented, rather than addressing the source of the problem. This has resulted in a layering of subsequent difficulties which have jointly acted as a handbrake upon the potential for establishing a dynasty of success.


How to summarise season 2020 in a single chart:

P2-AttackingOpportunities.jpg
2020 saw a significant decline in the club's ability to convert attacking opportunities into forward entries.
  • Attacking Opportunities = Clearances + Intercepts + Rebound 50s.
  • All 2020 figures have been multiplied by 1.25 to allow for comparison.


As can be clearly seen, the club is struggling to translate possession into attack, converting opportunities into inside 50s at the 5th lowest rate in the competition and well below anything that could be expected of a contender for the premiership.

If Champion Data opened up their dataset, I have no doubt their figures would portray a similar trend, albeit with far more detail.

It certainly paints a worrying picture for the season ahead should the current course be maintained.


A litany of issues

So how does a favourite for the premiership end up with ball movement that is comparable to that of bottom 4 clubs in the competition?

Much of this ground has been covered before here, here and here, so let’s recap with an abridged version of what has transpired since the club last held the premiership aloft.

P2-123Stats.jpg
Selected statistics since 2018: Highlighted numbers correlate to the steps described below.
  • One Percenters are an effective approximation for spoils. The 2020 figure for West Coast in this statistic is 2.5 standard deviations above the competition mean - it is an exceptional outlier among all statistics in the competition.
  • All 2020 figures have been multiplied by 1.25 to allow for comparison.

  1. The West Coast premiership defence remains static, so opponents push additional numbers up the ground in order to create running counteroffensive chains rather than kick long to the awaiting intercept mark.
  2. Response is to place greater defensive accountability upon players in attacking positions to deny the opponent from moving through the corridor and occupy space in front of the defence. This stemmed the ease of opposition scoring, but restricted the options for offensive ball movement and further hampered the team’s ability to win contested situations outside of stoppages.
  3. With ball movement increasingly compromised and predictable, opponents started using Richmond-style territory and turnover-ball tactics against the club to good effect. The response once again has been a demand for greater defensive accountability across the ground to prevent the turnover from becoming an opposition scoring opportunity. This has resulted in a significant positional compression of the team defensively, particularly when the opponent is able to gain the advantage of contested situations. This then has the effect of a feedback loop, whereby the defensive compression further limits the options available for attacking ball movement, allowing the opponent to dominate territory and apply more pressure, which leads to yet greater defensive compression.


Take the following for example - here are the leading player statistics across the competition in 2020 for forward half pressure acts and ground ball gets inside forward 50:

PAs-GBGs.jpg
Forward half pressure acts and forward 50 ground ball gets: all players with a minimum of 8 matches.
  • Yeo is the club's best supplier of pressure in the forward half
  • Shuey comes in at 4th, despite more than 55% of his pressure acts occurring in the defensive half of the ground
  • Brander and Waterman managed less pressure acts per game in the forward half than some of the club's defenders
  • The club does not have a single representative inside the top 30 when it comes to forward 50 ground ball gets
  • The top six midfielders (Yeo, Shuey, Kelly, Gaff, Sheed, Redden) at the club are accumulating on average less than 12% of their ground ball gets inside the forward 50.

The midfield is spending so much time tracking back and shielding the defence that their impact at the offensive end of the ground is negligible.


Putting it simply, the team has become increasingly defensive in its mindset over time, to the point where the response to opposing midfield dominance is now to flood back in numbers like it’s the year 2000. As you can imagine, under such circumstances ball movement becomes utterly one-dimensional and any forward pressure applied is rendered useless.

With so many players stationed defensively behind the ball, it also means the club has not been able to capitalise effectively when clearances are won.

P2-Clearances-In50s.jpg
West Coast are the least efficient club when it comes to comparing the number of clearances to inside 50s.
Meanwhile, Richmond are playing a different game to the rest of the competition - 3 premierships in the last 4 years suggests that it works, too.



As a result, the club has found itself becoming more and more reliant upon scoring from centre bounces, where the opponent is unable to field a defensive spare. Indeed, during the club’s last match (the Elimination Final against Collingwood) 5 of the total of 11 goals were scored directly from centre bounces. Unfortunately, despite how potent a force Naitanui can be in such situations, centre bounces alone will never remedy the ailments elsewhere on the field.


And those ailments are significant:

P2-2020-BadStats.jpg
Not the characteristics of a premiership contender.




A tactical summation of the past two years – “We'll call it a draw”


Sadly, the shortcomings from season 2019 can be repeated as still valid in season 2020:
  • Unable to apply pressure to opposition ball-carriers
  • Unable to force opponents into making turnovers
  • Unable to move the ball forward effectively when in possession
  • Unable to win contests outside of stoppages

In many respects the club is somewhat analogous to a champion prize fighter, who is now afraid to get back into the ring after being knocked out in his previous fight.

The team needs to rediscover its appetite to take risks once again; otherwise 2021 shall repeat the disappointment of the past two seasons.

Touching further upon that aspect, there is also a significant concern over the mentality of this team. History has shown the current playing group plays at its best when it has been completely written off and can develop an us-versus-them narrative to focus on. Conversely, the same group have arguably demonstrated that they are unable to retain focus in the same manner for matches they are widely expected to win, particularly if that match is followed up by a contest with an opponent that is regarded to be tougher to play against.

The complacency and lack of performance in these circumstances have cost the club a top 4 finish in each of the past two seasons and led to its early and unexpected elimination from finals at home in two of the past 5 years.

This blind spot in the team’s application will need to be corrected if it is to fulfil the desire for another premiership.
 
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So glad to put 2020 behind us with all the dissecting and analysing...and move onto 2021 for a fresh start of meltdowns and dissecting and analysing and player knocks and hopes and expectations...

Not long to go and we're off on another journey with covid and hubs and unknown twists+turns...deja vu? We'll know soon enough...Eagles $5 to win the Granny, do they know something we don't?
 
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If posting on bigfooty was an art form, then Dylan would be the Pablo Picasso of bigfooty.
I've never met Dylan82.
Now I know what he's like...
a drug taking, womanising, misogynist who has been married multiple times, fathered multiple children by multiple (non wifey) women and who drives his wives, mistresses and children to either suicide or nervous breakdowns.
But he can paint write.

Edit - PS. It doesn't make pleasant reading regarding 2020. But it is accurate and thanks for the work D82.
 
I've never met Dylan82.
Now I know what he's like...
a drug taking, womanising, misogynist who has been married multiple times, fathered multiple children by multiple (non wifey) women and who drives his wives, mistresses and children to either suicide or nervous breakdowns.
But he can paint write.

Edit - PS. It doesn't make pleasant reading regarding 2020. But it is accurate and thanks for the work D82.
You just about described the Eagles mid 2000’s list
 
The difference between us and Richmond is that Richmond's playing group are hungry for more flags whereas our playing group after winning the 2018 flag seem to have a mindset of "been there done that" and this is having a negative impact as our players feel they can play in cruise control mode as they achieved the ultimate goal.

Forward pressure has been non existent and teams just easily run the ball out at will and the opposition rebounds make it easier to score as the defense has been static as Dylan82 already mentioned. Teams will now implement a running based game to exploit our static defense which has mainly relied on high balls coming in, Gov will be tagged hard.

Here's a cricket analogy of us: With the way we played it seems we've adopted the South African cricket team of blocking it out to save the test match rather than the Australian way of going for the win even if it means losing.
 

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