List Mgmt. What could have been...

[Txiki]

Seeing the discussion on this and some of our past trade periods convinced me to have a look at what could have been. I quickly went through all of our offseason movements back to 2013 to see what players we moved in and out and what kids we could have picked up had we held onto our original picks based on ladder positions. What do people think of our decisions? Have we done well this rebuild?

It's worth noting that, because of the trading of future picks, offseason 2015 and beyond are linked to one another, such that not one of those years can purely be looked at in isolation. Also, the players we could have drafted are obviously picked with the benefit of hindsight.

2013

Original: 3, 24, 25, 41, 59

Actual: 3, 18, 19

Players in: Shane Savage, Billy Longer, Luke Delaney, Josh Bruce

Players out: Ben McEvoy, Nick Dal Santo

Drafted: Jack Billings, Luke Dunstan, Blake Acres

Drafted at our traded original picks: Billy Hartung, Daniel McStay, Jake Kolodjashnij

Available at our traded original picks: Zach Merrett, Tom Barrass, Tom Langdon

2014

Original: 1, 22, 41, 60

Actual: 1, 21, 22, 41

Players in: none

Players out: Rhys Stanley, James Gwilt

Drafted: Paddy McCartin, Hugh Goddard, Daniel McKenzie, Jack Lonie

Drafted at our traded original picks: Jordan Cunico

2015

Original: 5, 29, 49, 62

Actual: 14, 40, 49

Players in: Jake Carlisle, Nathan Freeman

Players out: none

Drafted: Jade Gresham, Brandon White, Bailey Rice

Drafted at our original picks: Aaron Francis, Alex Morgan

Available after our original picks: Charlie Curnow, Daniel Rioli, Tom Doedee, Marcus Adams, Riley Bonner

2016

Original: 10, 33, 49, 63

Actual: 25, 39, 56

Players in: Jack Steele, Koby Stevens, Nathan Brown

Players out: none

Drafted: Ben Long, Josh Battle, Ed Phillips

Drafted at our original picks: Jack Bowes, Willem Drew, Dylan Clarke

Available after our original picks: Daniel Venables, Jordan Galluci, Sam Powell Pepper, Sean Darcy

2017

Original: 8, 27, 46, 61

Actual: 7, 8, 35, 46

Players in: Logan Austin

Players out: none

Drafted: Hunter Clark, Nick Coffield, Oscar Clavarino, Ben Paton

Drafted at our original picks: Brent Daniels, Dom Barry

Available after our original picks: Bayley Fritsch, Brayden Ainsworth

2018

Original: 4, 23, 42, 61, 79

Actual: 4, 36, 46, 67, 79

Players in: Dan Hannebery, Dean Kent

Players out: Tom Hickey

 

[Keg on legs]

Maybe remove the sliding doors from the title. I thought purple had posted in here for a second!

 

[VDS66]

OK...

 

[Txiki]

Maybe remove the sliding doors from the title. I thought purple had posted in here for a second!

Click bait title

 

[Txiki]

OK...

It’s a bit confusing I know but essentially I wanted to see the players we could have picked and whether, on balance, we made the right decisions. We moved various players in and out in addition to draft picks and I wanted to see what other people thought of our overall rebuild.

Perhaps it made a bit more sense in my head!

 

[Murraj1966]

What hurts is 2001

Picks: 2 (Priority) 5, 13, 21, 37, 49

Players in: Heath Black (pick 17) Trent Knobel (pick 45)

Players out: Barry Hall (Pick 13, 17 and 45)

Drafted: Luke Ball 2, Xavier Clarke 5, Dal Santo 13, Maguire 21, Montagna 37, Houlihan 49

Available at our original picks: Judd & Bartel instead of Ball and Clarke

Those two picks go differently, and we break the drought at some point between 2004-10

 

[sammm]

What hurts is 2001

Picks: 2 (Priority) 5, 13, 21, 37, 49

Players in: Heath Black (pick 17) Trent Knobel (pick 45)

Players out: Barry Hall (Pick 13, 17 and 45)

Drafted: Luke Ball 2, Xavier Clarke 5, Dal Santo 13, Maguire 21, Montagna 37, Houlihan 49

Available at our original picks: Judd & Bartel instead of Ball and Clarke

Those two picks go differently, and we break the drought at some point between 2004-10

Thats true. Looks to me like 2013 -2017 didn't make much difference

 

[Txiki]

Thats true. Looks to me like 2013 -2017 didn't make much difference

McEvoy and Dal Santo were good players. Stanley has matured into a decent player. Some of those decisions were strange. We did it to move up in the draft and probably to relieve salary cap pressure but they were part of a strategy that deliberately pushed us lower down the ladder in order to rebuild.

 

[Ekomaira]

technically it was Francis at our pick if we had've kept it. Mills was only taken by Sydney at 3 because he was bid on, so our pick would've been pushed back and Parish wouldn't be there

 

[D2D3]

Picked up Membery in 2014.

But on 2014 that's the year that really hurts for me.

We could have drafted some better players in 2013 and probably didn't get enough for McEvoy, buts it's all hindsight. Looked good at the time.

The majority of our decisions in 2014 hurt and were questionable even then. McCartin over Petracca not withstanding, but instead of taking Petracca at 1, having the courage to trade pick 1 (and 22 I think?) to GWS for picks 4 and 7 would have really given us a better crack at that draft when you look at it.

We settled for 2 second round picks to go with pick 1 when the aim should have been multiple in the first round as was the original goal.

 

[Armitage2Riewoldt]

Picked up Membery in 2014.

But on 2014 that's the year that really hurts for me.

We could have drafted some better players in 2013 and probably didn't get enough for McEvoy, buts it's all hindsight. Looked good at the time.

The majority of our decisions in 2014 hurt and were questionable even then. McCartin over Petracca not withstanding, but instead of taking Petracca at 1, having the courage to trade pick 1 (and 22 I think?) to GWS for picks 4 and 7 would have really given us a better crack at that draft when you look at it.

We settled for 2 second round picks to go with pick 1 when the aim should have been multiple in the first round as was the original goal.

Technically they were both first round. It's a pretty arbitrary definition in the end though.

 

[Enclosed_Animal]

I love these hindsight threads. Everyone always picks the better player - even if they are 10 picks different and nobody rated them at the time.

The following are all either selections a pick or two different to what we selected, or involve picking alternative players seriously considered by the club at the time. It also assumes we trade 1 for 4&7 in 2014, and don't do the Carlisle downgrade or the Hawthorn pick swap.

From 2013 - 2017 we bring in:

James Aish, Jack Leslie, Billy Hartung, Peter Wright, Lachie Weller, Pat McKenna, Daniel Nielson, Liam Dawson, Aaron Francis, Mitch King, Tyrone Leonardis, Jy Simpkin, Lewis Young, Cameron Polson, Aiden Boner, Brent Daniels & Oscer Baker

And we currently don't have:

Clarke, Coffield, Battle, Long, Clav, Gresham, Carlisle, White, Rice, Paddy, (Goddard), McKenzie, Lonie, Dunstan, Acres or Billings

Perhaps we could also have traded with GWS for Jarrod Pickett & Kristen Jacksh instead of Jack Steele & Josh Bruce. Jacksh and Pickett went first round, so perhaps they are better prospects that what we traded for. Saints next year have more speed and a btter ruck like everyone wants!

Nielson, Leslie, Dawson
McKenna, Jacksh, Francis
Hartung, Aish, Weller
Pickett, Polson, Simpkin
Leornadis, Young, Daniels
Wright, Boner, King

Its not that easy to do what supporters want and pick the best player at every pick every year! Anyone can make themselves look smart in hindsight.

Its like walking around going "how smart am I because I know last weeks lotto numbers." Guess what … everyone knows last weeks numbers. The hard part is knowing next weeks numbers.

But if one of these smart people can let the club know the best 5 players from this draft, that would be really helpful …

 

[Txiki]

I love these hindsight threads. Everyone always picks the better player - even if they are 10 picks different and nobody rated them at the time.

The following are all either selections a pick or two different to what we selected, or involve picking alternative players seriously considered by the club at the time. It also assumes we trade 1 for 4&7 in 2014, and don't do the Carlisle downgrade or the Hawthorn pick swap.

From 2013 - 2017 we bring in:

James Aish, Jack Leslie, Billy Hartung, Peter Wright, Lachie Weller, Pat McKenna, Daniel Nielson, Liam Dawson, Aaron Francis, Mitch King, Tyrone Leonardis, Jy Simpkin, Lewis Young, Cameron Polson, Aiden Boner, Brent Daniels & Oscer Baker

And we currently don't have:

Clarke, Coffield, Battle, Long, Clav, Gresham, Carlisle, White, Rice, Paddy, (Goddard), McKenzie, Lonie, Dunstan, Acres or Billings

Perhaps we could also have traded with GWS for Jarrod Pickett & Kristen Jacksh instead of Jack Steele & Josh Bruce. Jacksh and Pickett went first round, so perhaps they are better prospects that what we traded for. Saints next year have more speed and a btter ruck like everyone wants!

Nielson, Leslie, Dawson
McKenna, Jacksh, Francis
Hartung, Aish, Weller
Pickett, Polson, Simpkin
Leornadis, Young, Daniels
Wright, Boner, King

Its not that easy to do what supporters want and pick the best player at every pick every year! Anyone can make themselves look smart in hindsight.

Its like walking around going "how smart am I because I know last weeks lotto numbers." Guess what … everyone knows last weeks numbers. The hard part is knowing next weeks numbers.

But if one of these smart people can let the club know the best 5 players from this draft, that would be really helpful …

This thread is to facilitate discussion and draw a more complete picture of the rebuild. I’m interested in others’ thoughts on our decisions to let players go as part of the strategy to accumulate higher draft picks.

 

[Enclosed_Animal]

This thread is to facilitate discussion and draw a more complete picture of the rebuild. I’m interested in others’ thoughts on our decisions to let players go as part of the strategy to accumulate higher draft picks.

Let me rephrase then. Take out 11 & 12 as they were compromised drafts that were rubbish anyway. Last 5 years of our rebuild below. 10 trades / pick swaps across 5 years of the rebuild.

2013:
We have: Billings, Dunstan, Acres, Savage & Longer
Done nothing: McEvoy, Dal Santo, Billings, Hartung & Jamie Bennell

2014:
We have: Paddy, (Goddard), McKenzie & Lonie
Done nothing: Stanley, Paddy, McKenzie, Lonie & Cunico
Hypothetical - Traded 1&21 for 4&7: Wright, Weller, McKenzie & Lonie

2015:
We have: Gresham, Carlisle, White, Rice & (Freeman)*
Done nothing: Francis, Morgan, White & Rice

2016:
We have: Long, Battle, Phillips, Steele* & (Stevens)
Done nothing: Simpkin*, Drew*, Young & Dylan Clarke

2017:
We have: Clarke, Coffield,* Clavarino, Paton, Austin & pick 67 this year
Done nothing: Clarke, Brent Daniels*, Paton, Patmore, Barry & picks 23 & 42 this year

To me, the only mistake was letting Dal go as an FA for Longer (or McStay if we didn't trade Longer). Either way that one is a bust considering the football Dal played at North.

McEvoy trade is arguable (McEvoy, Hartung & Bennell for Acres, Dunstan & Savage), but given the lack of youth we had still a solid trade even in hindsight (technically it was Ceglar not Bennell, but as Cegler was a rookie upgrade we didn't have access to, I took the next pick)

Smashed it out of the park in 15 with Essendon & 16 with Hawthorn. Steele for Brent Daniels also an absolute ripper

Freeman for Drew and Stanley & Cunico for Goddard both gambles that didn't pay off. Hardly lost much there though

The 14 hypothetical with GWS (Paddy & Stanley / Goddard for Wright & Weller) could still go either way. Doubt it will make much of a difference in the long run (Wright and Weller were our 4&7 by memory).

And for people that melt about giving away our 2nd every year, hardly worth getting upset about!
Freeman - Drew (draw)
Steele - Daniels (win)
Clav - 23 this year (TBA)
Hanners - 20-30 next year (TBA)

Finally listing players that either weren't available at our pick (Florent) or went 10+ pick later (Hardwick) is not exactly a fair comparison. Its like saying we should have taken Sloane instead of Lynch in 08 even though they were 30 picks apart. Hardly realistic.

 

[Geezington]

McEvoy and Dal Santo were good players. Stanley has matured into a decent player. Some of those decisions were strange. We did it to move up in the draft and probably to relieve salary cap pressure but they were part of a strategy that deliberately pushed us lower down the ladder in order to rebuild.

Stanley has matured into a shit truck

 

[Txiki]

Let me rephrase then. Take out 11 & 12 as they were compromised drafts that were rubbish anyway. Last 5 years of our rebuild below. 10 trades / pick swaps across 5 years of the rebuild.

2013:
We have: Dunstan, Acres, Savage & Longer
Done nothing: McEvoy, Dal Santo, Hartung & Jamie Bennell

2014:
We have: Paddy, (Goddard), McKenzie & Lonie
Done nothing: Paddy, Stanley, McKenzie, Lonie & Cunico
Hypothetical - Traded 1&21 for 4&7: Wright, Weller, McKenzie & Lonie

2015:
We have: Gresham, Carlisle, White, Rice & (Freeman)*
Done nothing: Francis, Morgan, White & Rice

2016:
We have: Long, Battle, Phillips, Steele* & (Stevens)
Done nothing: Simpkin*, Drew*, Young & Dylan Clarke

2017:
We have: Clarke, Coffield,* Clavarino, Paton, Austin & pick 67 this year
Done nothing: Clarke, Brent Daniels*, Paton, Patmore, Barry, Porter & picks 23 & 42 this year

To me, the only mistake was letting Dal go as an FA for Longer (or McStay if we didn't trade Longer). Either way that one is a bust considering the football Dal played at North.

McEvoy trade is arguable (McEvoy, Hartung & Bennell for Acres, Dunstan & Savage), but given the lack of youth we had still a solid trade even in hindsight (technically it was Ceglar not Bennell, but as Cegler was a rookie upgrade we didn't have access to, I took the next pick)

Smashed it out of the park in 15 with Essendon & 16 with Hawthorn. Steele for Brent Daniels also an absolute ripper

Freeman for Drew and Stanley & Cunico for Goddard both gambles that didn't pay off. Hardly lost much there though

The 14 hypothetical with GWS (Paddy & Stanley / Goddard for Wright & Weller) could still go either way. Doubt it will make much of a difference in the long run (Wright and Weller were our 4&7 by memory).

And for people that melt about giving away our 2nd every year, hardly worth getting upset about!
Freeman - Drew (draw)
Steele - Daniels (win)
Clav - 23 this year (TBA)
Hanners - 20-30 next year (TBA)

Finally listing players that either weren't available at our pick (Florent) or went 10+ pick later (Hardwick) is not exactly a fair comparison. Its like saying we should have taken Sloane instead of Lynch in 08 even though they were 30 picks apart. Hardly realistic.

Great points. I think we made mistakes in 2013 and perhaps the 2014 draft could have been better if we went down your hypothetical route. Getting rid of McEvoy and Dal Santo put us further down the ladder but that was part of the strategy of moving up the draft order for the rebuild.

My mistake re Florent. It was Bowes. Although, I think Sydney bid on Bowes and GC matched it. So if we still had that pick then Florent slides to 10. And yes Hardwick was a lot later than our original pick. It was closer to our actual pick but we took White.

 

[Doug Hogan 23]

Goddard wouldn’t have dominated the 2009 and 10 years for us either as we wouldn’t have had pick one in 2002.

 

[gringo2011]

Let me rephrase then. Take out 11 & 12 as they were compromised drafts that were rubbish anyway. Last 5 years of our rebuild below. 10 trades / pick swaps across 5 years of the rebuild.

2013:
We have: Dunstan, Acres, Savage & Longer
Done nothing: McEvoy, Dal Santo, Hartung & Jamie Bennell

2014:
We have: Paddy, (Goddard), McKenzie & Lonie
Done nothing: Paddy, Stanley, McKenzie, Lonie & Cunico
Hypothetical - Traded 1&21 for 4&7: Wright, Weller, McKenzie & Lonie

2015:
We have: Gresham, Carlisle, White, Rice & (Freeman)*
Done nothing: Francis, Morgan, White & Rice

2016:
We have: Long, Battle, Phillips, Steele* & (Stevens)
Done nothing: Simpkin*, Drew*, Young & Dylan Clarke

2017:
We have: Clarke, Coffield,* Clavarino, Paton, Austin & pick 67 this year
Done nothing: Clarke, Brent Daniels*, Paton, Patmore, Barry, Porter & picks 23 & 42 this year

To me, the only mistake was letting Dal go as an FA for Longer (or McStay if we didn't trade Longer). Either way that one is a bust considering the football Dal played at North.

McEvoy trade is arguable (McEvoy, Hartung & Bennell for Acres, Dunstan & Savage), but given the lack of youth we had still a solid trade even in hindsight (technically it was Ceglar not Bennell, but as Cegler was a rookie upgrade we didn't have access to, I took the next pick)

Smashed it out of the park in 15 with Essendon & 16 with Hawthorn. Steele for Brent Daniels also an absolute ripper

Freeman for Drew and Stanley & Cunico for Goddard both gambles that didn't pay off. Hardly lost much there though

The 14 hypothetical with GWS (Paddy & Stanley / Goddard for Wright & Weller) could still go either way. Doubt it will make much of a difference in the long run (Wright and Weller were our 4&7 by memory).

And for people that melt about giving away our 2nd every year, hardly worth getting upset about!
Freeman - Drew (draw)
Steele - Daniels (win)
Clav - 23 this year (TBA)
Hanners - 20-30 next year (TBA)

Finally listing players that either weren't available at our pick (Florent) or went 10+ pick later (Hardwick) is not exactly a fair comparison. Its like saying we should have taken Sloane instead of Lynch in 08 even though they were 30 picks apart. Hardly realistic.

Still hypothetical the way you have done it were it was the pick straight after the one we took or the pick another team took in that spot. We will never know what could have been really. We live in the house we built, some were okay some ere spuds. We still need a superstar or two out of the ones we have. Hopefully Steele, Gresham, Billings and Membrey types step up next year.

 

[L_W_P]

Picked up Membery in 2014.

But on 2014 that's the year that really hurts for me.

We could have drafted some better players in 2013 and probably didn't get enough for McEvoy, buts it's all hindsight. Looked good at the time.

The majority of our decisions in 2014 hurt and were questionable even then. McCartin over Petracca not withstanding, but instead of taking Petracca at 1, having the courage to trade pick 1 (and 22 I think?) to GWS for picks 4 and 7 would have really given us a better crack at that draft when you look at it.

We settled for 2 second round picks to go with pick 1 when the aim should have been multiple in the first round as was the original goal.

Yep.

If The Dees dont get that Priority pick then we would have done the deal and taken Paddy at pick 3 after Petracca and Brayshaw. We would have picked up Laverde with #6.

Looking back we should have still done that deal. Take Peter Wright at #4 and Lever or Laverde (who we seriously rated) at #7.

 

[saint66au]

Let me rephrase then. Take out 11 & 12 as they were compromised drafts that were rubbish anyway. Last 5 years of our rebuild below. 10 trades / pick swaps across 5 years of the rebuild.

2013:
We have: Billings, Dunstan, Acres, Savage & Longer
Done nothing: McEvoy, Dal Santo, Billings, Hartung & Jamie Bennell

2014:
We have: Paddy, (Goddard), McKenzie & Lonie
Done nothing: Stanley, Paddy, McKenzie, Lonie & Cunico
Hypothetical - Traded 1&21 for 4&7: Wright, Weller, McKenzie & Lonie

2015:
We have: Gresham, Carlisle, White, Rice & (Freeman)*
Done nothing: Francis, Morgan, White & Rice

2016:
We have: Long, Battle, Phillips, Steele* & (Stevens)
Done nothing: Simpkin*, Drew*, Young & Dylan Clarke

2017:
We have: Clarke, Coffield,* Clavarino, Paton, Austin & pick 67 this year
Done nothing: Clarke, Brent Daniels*, Paton, Patmore, Barry & picks 23 & 42 this year

To me, the only mistake was letting Dal go as an FA for Longer (or McStay if we didn't trade Longer). Either way that one is a bust considering the football Dal played at North.

McEvoy trade is arguable (McEvoy, Hartung & Bennell for Acres, Dunstan & Savage), but given the lack of youth we had still a solid trade even in hindsight (technically it was Ceglar not Bennell, but as Cegler was a rookie upgrade we didn't have access to, I took the next pick)

Smashed it out of the park in 15 with Essendon & 16 with Hawthorn. Steele for Brent Daniels also an absolute ripper

Freeman for Drew and Stanley & Cunico for Goddard both gambles that didn't pay off. Hardly lost much there though

The 14 hypothetical with GWS (Paddy & Stanley / Goddard for Wright & Weller) could still go either way. Doubt it will make much of a difference in the long run (Wright and Weller were our 4&7 by memory).

And for people that melt about giving away our 2nd every year, hardly worth getting upset about!
Freeman - Drew (draw)
Steele - Daniels (win)
Clav - 23 this year (TBA)
Hanners - 20-30 next year (TBA)

Finally listing players that either weren't available at our pick (Florent) or went 10+ pick later (Hardwick) is not exactly a fair comparison. Its like saying we should have taken Sloane instead of Lynch in 08 even though they were 30 picks apart. Hardly realistic.

z

Here is what is killing us..

Out of that group only ONE player (Steele) has had a podium finish in the BnF

From 2013/2014 Only Billings and DMac have even finished in the Top 10. Acres, Dunstan, Savage, Longer never finishing in our Top 10 is damning of our development IMO.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Let me rephrase then. Take out 11 & 12 as they were compromised drafts that were rubbish anyway. Last 5 years of our rebuild below. 10 trades / pick swaps across 5 years of the rebuild.

2013:
We have: Billings, Dunstan, Acres, Savage & Longer
Done nothing: McEvoy, Dal Santo, Billings, Hartung & Jamie Bennell

2014:
We have: Paddy, (Goddard), McKenzie & Lonie
Done nothing: Stanley, Paddy, McKenzie, Lonie & Cunico
Hypothetical - Traded 1&21 for 4&7: Wright, Weller, McKenzie & Lonie

2015:
We have: Gresham, Carlisle, White, Rice & (Freeman)*
Done nothing: Francis, Morgan, White & Rice

2016:
We have: Long, Battle, Phillips, Steele* & (Stevens)
Done nothing: Simpkin*, Drew*, Young & Dylan Clarke

2017:
We have: Clarke, Coffield,* Clavarino, Paton, Austin & pick 67 this year
Done nothing: Clarke, Brent Daniels*, Paton, Patmore, Barry & picks 23 & 42 this year

To me, the only mistake was letting Dal go as an FA for Longer (or McStay if we didn't trade Longer). Either way that one is a bust considering the football Dal played at North.

McEvoy trade is arguable (McEvoy, Hartung & Bennell for Acres, Dunstan & Savage), but given the lack of youth we had still a solid trade even in hindsight (technically it was Ceglar not Bennell, but as Cegler was a rookie upgrade we didn't have access to, I took the next pick)

Smashed it out of the park in 15 with Essendon & 16 with Hawthorn. Steele for Brent Daniels also an absolute ripper

Freeman for Drew and Stanley & Cunico for Goddard both gambles that didn't pay off. Hardly lost much there though

The 14 hypothetical with GWS (Paddy & Stanley / Goddard for Wright & Weller) could still go either way. Doubt it will make much of a difference in the long run (Wright and Weller were our 4&7 by memory).

And for people that melt about giving away our 2nd every year, hardly worth getting upset about!
Freeman - Drew (draw)
Steele - Daniels (win)
Clav - 23 this year (TBA)
Hanners - 20-30 next year (TBA)

Finally listing players that either weren't available at our pick (Florent) or went 10+ pick later (Hardwick) is not exactly a fair comparison. Its like saying we should have taken Sloane instead of Lynch in 08 even though they were 30 picks apart. Hardly realistic.

I maintain that our drafting strategy and the deals were good ones, what was bad was our identification of talent.

 

[gringo2011]

I maintain that our drafting strategy and the deals were good ones, what was bad was our identification of talent.

Bad timing didn't help. Even after the heavily compromised drafts GWS and GC still took masses of talent from the pool. Most teams that reset rather than full bottoming out seem to have rebounded quicker. At some point it should level out but FA has also artificially kept the natural balance from returning. We definitely didn't identify talent well but as I said I think Pelican timed the strategy really really badly.