Opinion What player has surprised you with their career?

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Oddly - Sam Walsh. I know he was no 1 pick and all, and looked like a player who was ready for AFL day one, but I somehow formed the opinion that his ceiling wasn’t any higher and he would spend his career as a smaller sized okay type accumulator who wasn’t especially damaging.

I ballsed up that prediction big time. Probably owe him a letter of apology

This one always annoyed me.

We gave Dixon and Waite 10 years, Rayner is still getting excuses 5 years, as are plenty of other high picks (LDU, Dow etc).

But lots and lots of pundits, and media people like Kane Cornes, were writing him off based on his first couple of months as an AFL player, as a skinny kid in a shit team.

Not having a go at you, I've got plenty wrong too, just never understood how it was almost universal that Walsh would never improve, he would always be the 2019 wing type version. Normally these high picks are given years and years before people go oh ok maybe he isn't going to improve, Walsh got about 6 weeks before it was decided he'd be an ineffective stats mid. With time and strength added he was always going to be a super mid.
 
Ben Keays. Always just looked overrated by Brisbane for being an academy player, not worth a top 20s pick. Plenty of poor AFL players who rack it up in NEAFL, didn't read anything into that. Delisted. Thought might be an Ellis-Yolmen tier journeyman who gets a gig at bottom 4 sides until kids come through.
2 top 5 B&F spots later, and on track early doors for a third and would be leading his club. Still not a great kick but gets ticks for ball-winning, toughness, defense, and leadership.

Tom Hickey - journeyman ruck, figured peaks at Nathan Vardy level. Spent 2021 as a top 5 ruck in the comp, with all the best rucks fit. Best negating ruck in the comp too in terms of reducing his direct opponents impact, maybe equal with Nankervis at his best.

Speaking of Nankervis, who the fu** thought he'd be a 3 time flag player and now captain?? 4th ruck at Sydney, only one game with over 20 hitouts in his time there. 3rd round draft pick trade value.
Good call on Keays.
 
This one always annoyed me.

We gave Dixon and Waite 10 years, Rayner is still getting excuses 5 years, as are plenty of other high picks (LDU, Dow etc).

But lots and lots of pundits, and media people like Kane Cornes, were writing him off based on his first couple of months as an AFL player, as a skinny kid in a shit team.

Not having a go at you, I've got plenty wrong too, just never understood how it was almost universal that Walsh would never improve, he would always be the 2019 wing type version. Normally these high picks are given years and years before people go oh ok maybe he isn't going to improve, Walsh got about 6 weeks before it was decided he'd be an ineffective stats mid. With time and strength added he was always going to be a super mid.
Mate I think a lot of the heat came from people wanting Carlton to fail and having lols at us for supposedly stuffing up another pick 1 selection.

Cornes who openly barracks for Port wanted his boy Rozee to get in the spotlight
 

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Dustin Martin. Always looked like a jet but early days always seemed to be one step away from going off the rails
He’s been my favourite player since about 2012. Glad he went the way it did and grew up a bit. Is this what Falcon3518 has been talking about Cotchin re his leadership? Dunno but probably
 
Mate I think a lot of the heat came from people wanting Carlton to fail and having lols at us for supposedly stuffing up another pick 1 selection.

Cornes who openly barracks for Port wanted his boy Rozee to get in the spotlight
I don’t think that is what influenced my opinion - more likely certain commentators seeped in plus I didn’t watch neutral games as closely and decided he was a bit of a clockwork toy. I got it big time wrong
 
Luke Breust Rookie Pick 45 ~ Swans passed their acdamey right on him, started his Hawthorn career playing for the BoxHill reserves at 60kg straight of the shower and afraid of body contact. Has become one of the premier small forwards of the AFL era.
 
Max Gawn
 

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Alan Toovey

Rookie drafted. Not an attractive kick of the footy. Heart in mouth stuff when he got a hold of the pill. Didn't think he'd play more than 10 games.

His kicking improved.. he was quick.. alert.. courageous.. reliable.. selfless.

Played 159 games.

Underrated premiership player.
 
Trent Cotchin - good player sure, but I wouldn't have expected leadership to ever define his career. Has been second to none imo.
 
Jeremy McGovern.... I mean just look at him

We actually drafted him in the 2011 rookie draft and he didn't debut until 2014. Was sent back to Claremont at one stage for being fat and lazy. I thought he was just another anonymous guy on our rookie list who would be delisted before playing a game.

In his first year he played mostly forward and was #1 in contested marks for us with 30 from 13 games. Next best was Darling with 25 who played the whole season. Was good enough for top 20 in the comp and second only to Tom Hawkins and Buddy on a per game basis. Went back permanently in 2015 out of necessity and has been a top 5 key defender since. Pretty remarkable for a fat bloke with limited athleticism.
 
Watching the game tonight it struck me what a decent career Mitch Robinson has carved out.

When he first started I would have taken any bet he wouldn't be still playing in 2022.

He struck me as someone tough and willing but without enough skill, smarts and composure to last a long time in the game. Plus his no holds barred attack on the ball would surely see him getting injured a lot.

Yet here he is 14 years later still durable, still best 22 for a top 4 side and still contributing. He's never going to be the smartest or most skilful out there but he plays a role and still never shirks a contest.

Looking at the 2008 draft, which was a ripper there are still a few going, his teammate Rich has also had an excellent career but the vast majority are gone from the game and some barely hanging on. Mitch is 230+ games and still going strong. Kudos Mad Dog.
Yeah, mitch Robinson has been a player I would've liked in my team for many years. Guys like Joel Selwood get all of these courageous awards but no-one goes harder at the ball and man than Mitch Robinson and if Joel Selwood and Mitch were in a cage match, I know who would be the one walking out of there.
 
David Mundy for sure, in his first few seasons he just looked as if he was an everyday solid player, but to be at 350odd games now & still playing extremely well is way more than anyone could of predicted. Absolute class act, & humble too!
 
Touk Miller- was always solid but has taken his game to another level the last 2 or so years. Basically had 200 more disposals last year than his 2nd most in a season.
 
Would probably be Justin Koschitzke. Not because of talent, that was always there but was surprised to see he had played 200 games given how many problems he had with injuries and concussions throughout his career.
 

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Opinion What player has surprised you with their career?

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