What the numbers say about 2018

[Shwab]

More so than in any recent season, the Hawks present a statistical casserole of nonsense entering 2018.
Using a variety of resources (in particular the brilliant 2018 AFL Prospectus), I've summarised some of the key insights to hopefully paint a clearer picture for the upcoming season.

Firstly, despite appearing to rebuild the side, the Hawks enter 2018 with the oldest and most experienced list in the competition. Although we've lost the Peter Crimmins medallists from 2009 - 2016, the demographic composition of the side remains poised to compete now.

When reviewing 2017, the overall season stats present an uninteresting "middle of the pack" view of the side. However, when isolating the last 10 rounds of the year, the data presents a compelling insight into the game plan and structure we should expect to see evolve for 2018.

After round 13, Hawthorn was 17th on the ladder with an average losing margin of 48 points. Hawks were 18th in clearance differential and also 18th in contested possession differential.

Across the last 10 games, Hawks ranked 4th in clearance differential and 7th in contested possession differential. This massive change in game style after the bye delivered a huge turnaround in results, the Hawks ranking 6th on the form ladder in this period.

Wins against Adelaide, Sydney, Collingwood, Bulldogs, Fremantle and North Melbourne, with a draw against GWS. The only blemishes in the last 10 weeks were a 3 point loss to Geelong, a 7 point loss to Carlton and a 29 point loss to a red hot Richmond.

From the side that played those last 10 rounds, Hawks will add Rioli, Stratton, Frawley, Impey, Birchall (played only 2), Puopolo (3) & O'Meara (2) to the 2018 team. Missing from this side of will be only Hodge & Hartung.

So despite finishing 12th and somehow receiving the 4th hardest draw (thanks Gil), the Hawks performance across the last 10 rounds of 2017 provides much encouragement. The reinvented gameplan again ensuring Hawks were 1st in disposals, effective kicks, kicking efficiency, disposal efficiency, marks, uncontested marks and uncontested possessions across this period (2nd for time in possession differential too). Additionally, the side is well placed with the league wide push for forward pressure, with Bruest, Rioli, Puopolo & Impey (the equal fastest player in the league according to GPS data) all possibly elite in this category.

Beyond the team insights, here's a few individual player notes which may be of interest;
- Frawley has the 5th worst defensive 1 on 1 differential of all key defenders. With Gibbo retired, we need to find someone to peel off and help ASAP.
- Despite all the talent coming back into defence, Hardwick should hold his spot - he has the 2nd best kick rating of the top 300 kicks and 2nd best defensive rating of any general defender.
- Howe has the job as lock down run with mid for life - his opponents perform 40% worse than usual when he plays on them.
- Brand should also hold his spot, 4th best defensive rating of any key defender and the only player to keep Hawkins goalless.
- From round 14, Sicily was 2nd in the league for intercept possessions and took 20 contested intercept marks, ranked 1st in the league. He was also number 1 for defensive 1 on 1 contest wins.
- Of the top 360 ball winning players, O'Meara ranks 359th for metres gained, with the 2nd worst kick rating of any midfielder to play 5 games. Important to note a ridiculously small sample size, but we shouldn't expect too much too soon despite the positive training reports.
- Lastly, Tom Mitchell's remarkable contribution in 2017 can't be overstated. Statistically he pretty much replaced the output of both Sam Mitchell & Jordan Lewis himself! When comparing Tom's 2017 to Lewis & Mitchell's combined 2016, he had 326 contested possessions to 409, he had 219 ground ball gets to 262, 143 tackles to 159 and kicked 10 goals to their combined 12 goals. Freak.

All things going to plan, the Hawks 2018 team should be better across the ground than the 2017 round 14 onwards side, purely on the ins / outs. With 11 of the first 12 games in Melbourne or Tassie, you wouldn't expect us to still be $23 for the flag (behind Essendon, Collingwood, Bulldogs & Melbourne) by mid season.

 

[Gralin]

Good stuff mate

It's interesting, we all saw the growth in Sis and how big a year Tom had

I'm surprised that Brand did as well as he did, I like him and thought he had a really good development year but his key defender rating is surprising

I'm not worried about Chip or Jaeger at this point

Chips didn't have a great year but the whole defence was a mess in most of his games, in a more settles back six with support I expect him to go and do the job assigned better

I'm also not worried about Jaeger, he also had more than double the handballs to kicks in his 6 games which is going to impact his meters gained, nevermind he played his first real footy in 2 years and did it in a new team that was struggling for half the games he played

 

[Jaeger]

We'll be better this year.

The fact that we were able to knock off some of the best teams last year with so many stars out injured and with many inexperienced kids playing out of position was telling.

We are in a transition period and our best is still good enough, which is exciting. If we have a reasonable run with injuries top 4-6 is not out of the question.

A lot of the senior boys were down on form last year and we'll need them to bounce back.

 

[crazywildhorse]

More so than in any recent season, the Hawks present a statistical casserole of nonsense entering 2018.
Using a variety of resources (in particular the brilliant 2018 AFL Prospectus), I've summarised some of the key insights to hopefully paint a clearer picture for the upcoming season.

Firstly, despite appearing to rebuild the side, the Hawks enter 2018 with the oldest and most experienced list in the competition. Although we've lost the Peter Crimmins medallists from 2009 - 2016, the demographic composition of the side remains poised to compete now.

When reviewing 2017, the overall season stats present an uninteresting "middle of the pack" view of the side. However, when isolating the last 10 rounds of the year, the data presents a compelling insight into the game plan and structure we should expect to see evolve for 2018.

After round 13, Hawthorn was 17th on the ladder with an average losing margin of 48 points. Hawks were 18th in clearance differential and also 18th in contested possession differential.

Across the last 10 games, Hawks ranked 4th in clearance differential and 7th in contested possession differential. This massive change in game style after the bye delivered a huge turnaround in results, the Hawks ranking 6th on the form ladder in this period.

Wins against Adelaide, Sydney, Collingwood, Bulldogs, Fremantle and North Melbourne, with a draw against GWS. The only blemishes in the last 10 weeks were a 3 point loss to Geelong, a 7 point loss to Carlton and a 29 point loss to a red hot Richmond.

From the side that played those last 10 rounds, Hawks will add Rioli, Stratton, Frawley, Impey, Birchall (played only 2), Puopolo (3) & O'Meara (2) to the 2018 team. Missing from this side of will be only Hodge & Hartung.

So despite finishing 12th and somehow receiving the 4th hardest draw (thanks Gil), the Hawks performance across the last 10 rounds of 2017 provides much encouragement. The reinvented gameplan again ensuring Hawks were 1st in disposals, effective kicks, kicking efficiency, disposal efficiency, marks, uncontested marks and uncontested possessions across this period (2nd for time in possession differential too). Additionally, the side is well placed with the league wide push for forward pressure, with Bruest, Rioli, Puopolo & Impey (the equal fastest player in the league according to GPS data) all possibly elite in this category.

Beyond the team insights, here's a few individual player notes which may be of interest;
- Frawley has the 5th worst defensive 1 on 1 differential of all key defenders. With Gibbo retired, we need to find someone to peel off and help ASAP.
- Despite all the talent coming back into defence, Hardwick should hold his spot - he has the 2nd best kick rating of the top 300 kicks and 2nd best defensive rating of any general defender.
- Howe has the job as lock down run with mid for life - his opponents perform 40% worse than usual when he plays on them.
- Brand should also hold his spot, 4th best defensive rating of any key defender and the only player to keep Hawkins goalless.
- From round 14, Sicily was 2nd in the league for intercept possessions and took 20 contested intercept marks, ranked 1st in the league. He was also number 1 for defensive 1 on 1 contest wins.
- Of the top 360 ball winning players, O'Meara ranks 359th for metres gained, with the 2nd worst kick rating of any midfielder to play 5 games. Important to note a ridiculously small sample size, but we shouldn't expect too much too soon despite the positive training reports.
- Lastly, Tom Mitchell's remarkable contribution in 2017 can't be overstated. Statistically he pretty much replaced the output of both Sam Mitchell & Jordan Lewis himself! When comparing Tom's 2017 to Lewis & Mitchell's combined 2016, he had 326 contested possessions to 409, he had 219 ground ball gets to 262, 143 tackles to 159 and kicked 10 goals to their combined 12 goals. Freak.

All things going to plan, the Hawks 2018 team should be better across the ground than the 2017 round 14 onwards side, purely on the ins / outs. With 11 of the first 12 games in Melbourne or Tassie, you wouldn't expect us to still be $23 for the flag (behind Essendon, Collingwood, Bulldogs & Melbourne) by mid season.

Tell me, why aren’t you working for the Age?

 

[dermott]

Tell me, why aren’t you working for the Age?

He is obviously far too intelligent to get a job at Newscorp so Fairfax or the ABC would appear to offer the best employment prospects.
Mind you if he had a radical lobotomy and underwent years of serial alcohol and nicotine abuse he would come under consideration for the chief footy writer's role at the Melbourne Morning Herald.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Tell me, why aren’t you working for the Age?

Maybe he does.

 

[LRobbo]

Also note that Roughead should be better for the run last year and he should duplicate if not better his goal output this year.
Gunstons likely move back to the front half should see him kicking 2+ goals a week.
If they elect to play Impey forward and create manic pressure along with Puopolo, Rioli & Hanrahan who WILL push for senior selection early, I think that is once again a top 3 forward line completion wide.

Burton is the wildcard for me. Can this kid take the leap from exceptional young player to out & out star much like Bontempelli did in 2016. If he can do this, I can see us pushing for a top 4 berth

 

[crazywildhorse]

He is obviously far too intelligent to get a job at Newscorp so Fairfax or the ABC would appear to offer the best employment prospects.
Mind you if he had a radical lobotomy and underwent years of serial alcohol and nicotine abuse he would come under consideration for the chief footy writer's role at the Melbourne Morning Herald.

That’s the problem though, the better news outlets don’t do football analysis. So you’re left with the Age or Herald Sun in Vic. And we all know who Robbo works for.

 

[Davo23]

That’s the problem though, the better news outlets don’t do football analysis. So you’re left with the Age or Herald Sun in Vic. And we all know who Robbo works for.

And if you check the clickbait on The Age website, you may conclude that he's too good for them as well.

Stick to BigFooty, Shwab!

 

[WWSD]

The two key areas the improvement will come from this year is the forward-line (points per game) and the midfield (contested possessions).

Amazing how the club finished third in scoring after round 13 without Gunston, Roughead and Burton playing as forwards. No Rioli as well who was injured and Breust had an average season in 2017.

The forward half of the ground is where the major improvement will come from in 2018. That includes points per game, scoring shots and marks inside 50.

 

[KermitJagger]

I still believe that based on 2013-2016 form that we easily have the most damaging, balanced and multi-dimensional forward line in the AFL. Adelaide drop off a bit; Betts is gonna be 32, they've lost the pressure of Cameron. Port look good on paper but Watts and Motlop were over-rated leading up to the trade period. GWS are the big unknown; if they can pull some pressure forwards out of their proverbial backside they have the potential to be #1 but that's not a certainty.

I feel very confident on our ability to score when I know we're going into 2018 with Rough, Gunners, Breust, Cyril, Puopolo and O'Brien. That's without mentioning our ruck contributions in the forward line which are always solid.

 

[Deleted member 170709]

Interested to know what moves Clarko pulled from rd14 that turned around our contested ball and clearances to such magnitude

 

[KermitJagger]

Interested to know what moves Clarko pulled from rd14 that turned around our contested ball and clearances to such magnitude

Increased numbers around the contest by sacrificing numbers up forward.

 

[cs61]

Good post, Shwab.

A couple of thoughts/wonderings..

Our draw was rated by some scribes as difficult based solely on who we get twice, but if we take in to account where we get the interstate sides its a pretty decent draw. Better than what we have had previously.

I wonder if we can play Brand, Stratton, Frawley and Sicily week in week out in the same team. They are all in my ‘best 22’, but the Tigers did make us look slow last year even when we had a relatively small defence. There might be times we play horses for courses and play an extra runner and have a tall like Brand sit out for match up reasons against sides like Tigers, Bulldogs etc.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Good read, astounding that we still have the oldest list in the competition.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Good post, Shwab.

A couple of thoughts/wonderings..

Our draw was rated by some scribes as difficult based solely on who we get twice, but if we take in to account where we get the interstate sides its a pretty decent draw. Better than what we have had previously.

I wonder if we can play Brand, Stratton, Frawley and Sicily week in week out in the same team. They are all in my ‘best 22’, but the Tigers did make us look slow last year even when we had a relatively small defence. There might be times we play horses for courses and play an extra runner and have a tall like Brand sit out for match up reasons against sides like Tigers, Bulldogs etc.

TBH that's the most important thing when it comes to ranking a fixture considering you only get 5 double ups.

 

[MasterSamurai]

The most important thing that stats dont/cant take into consideration is ' Mentality ' of a team! That's where we failed in the first half of 2017!
This year , I believe, our boys will be honest for the whole season and that may be enough for a top 4 berth.

 

[Chubberson]

This is a great post man, good analysis. Clarko absolutely changed tack mid season and what a master coach he is. I didn't think that was possible outside of a pre season, but he did it.

After round 8 I think I made a bet with someone in here saying we'd miss the finals for 3 seasons, that still stands but I fully expect to pay out this season.

After seeing the last half of last season, the growth of the youngsters and our new additions it's quite exciting going into the new season. A happy Impey will be a great x-factor.

If, IF, IF JoM and co stays fit all year we can most definitely win the flag, the comps top 8 teams are very close. Bloody Clarko is a genius I swear.

 

[Dewnior]

TBH that's the most important thing when it comes to ranking a fixture considering you only get 5 double ups.

Disagree. The most important consideration within a fixture (which is never reported by the media) is who and where your opponent played the week before and the length of recovery they had compared to you.

 

[Shwab]

I presume the Champion Data assessment of draw difficulty includes all of the above considerations. Notable for 2018 is the inequity of the draw difficulty relative to 2017 ladder position.
Hawthorn finished 12th, but rank 4th in draw difficulty
Geelong finished 3rd, but rank 13th in draw difficulty
Sydney finished 5th, but rank 14th in draw difficulty
Collingwood finished 13th, but rank 18th in draw difficulty

This imbalance is the cause of significant friction between clubs and headquarters....

 

[A Cut Above]

I think we're one of the hardest teams to get a read on.

The addition of Rioli, Stratton, Frawley & Puopolo would ordinarily make us much stronger, except all those players generally played horribly last year. Birchall returning would be a huge boost except his knee still appears to be giving him issues. Roughead should perform much better with a preseason under his belt though there's no guarantee he'll be back to his best.

Both our defensive & small forward stocks should be strengthened, but huge question marks still hover over our midfield. Expecting JOM to be the difference in (hopefully) his first full season of AFL in years is asking too much, and too many other mids on our list are either very young or unlikely to improve significantly. Langford, Whitecross, Henderson & JOR I've essentially given up on, Shiels & Smith were both poor for most of 2017, which leaves guys like Howe, Morrison, Lovell & Worpel. They may yet blossom into stars of the future but based on 2017 form I'd say we're at least two quality midfielders short of being a genuine Premiership threat, lacking both genuine class and depth.

The other issue is gameplan. I had the feeling Clarko surprised the competition when he changed it after the bye, but that by the end of the year other teams had adjusted and we weren't performing so well as a result. Or it could simply be many of our kids like Sicily tired, perhaps a bit of both. Plainly our gameplan was rubbish in the first half of last year and that largely contributed to many of our losses & blowouts, so it'll be interesting to see the style we use this year particularly with regards to how attacking Clarko wants us to be. Gunston to the forwardline suggests he recognizes our lack of firepower was almost as big an issue as our midfield last year.

 

[threesixpio]

More so than in any recent season, the Hawks present a statistical casserole of nonsense entering 2018.
Using a variety of resources (in particular the brilliant 2018 AFL Prospectus), I've summarised some of the key insights to hopefully paint a clearer picture for the upcoming season.

Firstly, despite appearing to rebuild the side, the Hawks enter 2018 with the oldest and most experienced list in the competition. Although we've lost the Peter Crimmins medallists from 2009 - 2016, the demographic composition of the side remains poised to compete now.

When reviewing 2017, the overall season stats present an uninteresting "middle of the pack" view of the side. However, when isolating the last 10 rounds of the year, the data presents a compelling insight into the game plan and structure we should expect to see evolve for 2018.

After round 13, Hawthorn was 17th on the ladder with an average losing margin of 48 points. Hawks were 18th in clearance differential and also 18th in contested possession differential.

Across the last 10 games, Hawks ranked 4th in clearance differential and 7th in contested possession differential. This massive change in game style after the bye delivered a huge turnaround in results, the Hawks ranking 6th on the form ladder in this period.

Wins against Adelaide, Sydney, Collingwood, Bulldogs, Fremantle and North Melbourne, with a draw against GWS. The only blemishes in the last 10 weeks were a 3 point loss to Geelong, a 7 point loss to Carlton and a 29 point loss to a red hot Richmond.

From the side that played those last 10 rounds, Hawks will add Rioli, Stratton, Frawley, Impey, Birchall (played only 2), Puopolo (3) & O'Meara (2) to the 2018 team. Missing from this side of will be only Hodge & Hartung.

So despite finishing 12th and somehow receiving the 4th hardest draw (thanks Gil), the Hawks performance across the last 10 rounds of 2017 provides much encouragement. The reinvented gameplan again ensuring Hawks were 1st in disposals, effective kicks, kicking efficiency, disposal efficiency, marks, uncontested marks and uncontested possessions across this period (2nd for time in possession differential too). Additionally, the side is well placed with the league wide push for forward pressure, with Bruest, Rioli, Puopolo & Impey (the equal fastest player in the league according to GPS data) all possibly elite in this category.

Beyond the team insights, here's a few individual player notes which may be of interest;
- Frawley has the 5th worst defensive 1 on 1 differential of all key defenders. With Gibbo retired, we need to find someone to peel off and help ASAP.
- Despite all the talent coming back into defence, Hardwick should hold his spot - he has the 2nd best kick rating of the top 300 kicks and 2nd best defensive rating of any general defender.
- Howe has the job as lock down run with mid for life - his opponents perform 40% worse than usual when he plays on them.
- Brand should also hold his spot, 4th best defensive rating of any key defender and the only player to keep Hawkins goalless.
- From round 14, Sicily was 2nd in the league for intercept possessions and took 20 contested intercept marks, ranked 1st in the league. He was also number 1 for defensive 1 on 1 contest wins.
- Of the top 360 ball winning players, O'Meara ranks 359th for metres gained, with the 2nd worst kick rating of any midfielder to play 5 games. Important to note a ridiculously small sample size, but we shouldn't expect too much too soon despite the positive training reports.
- Lastly, Tom Mitchell's remarkable contribution in 2017 can't be overstated. Statistically he pretty much replaced the output of both Sam Mitchell & Jordan Lewis himself! When comparing Tom's 2017 to Lewis & Mitchell's combined 2016, he had 326 contested possessions to 409, he had 219 ground ball gets to 262, 143 tackles to 159 and kicked 10 goals to their combined 12 goals. Freak.

All things going to plan, the Hawks 2018 team should be better across the ground than the 2017 round 14 onwards side, purely on the ins / outs. With 11 of the first 12 games in Melbourne or Tassie, you wouldn't expect us to still be $23 for the flag (behind Essendon, Collingwood, Bulldogs & Melbourne) by mid season.

Phenomenal post

 

[Luv_our_club]

Good post, Shwab.

A couple of thoughts/wonderings..

Our draw was rated by some scribes as difficult based solely on who we get twice, but if we take in to account where we get the interstate sides its a pretty decent draw. Better than what we have had previously.

I wonder if we can play Brand, Stratton, Frawley and Sicily week in week out in the same team. They are all in my ‘best 22’, but the Tigers did make us look slow last year even when we had a relatively small defence. There might be times we play horses for courses and play an extra runner and have a tall like Brand sit out for match up reasons against sides like Tigers, Bulldogs etc.

i have to believe the game against Richmond was just an anomaly from a young side. The number of times Richmond waltzed into an open goal was worrying, but not unlike other losses during the year when we collapsed against far lesser sides.

With Hardiwck now ascendant, i think the game against Richmond in 2018 will be one to pay attention to. Perhaps for the first time, Clarkson and the Hawks will be motivated to give Richmond our very best.

 

[Todman]

Good read, astounding that we still have the oldest list in the competition.

Silk is 135 years old.

 

[Rushed_Behind]

Silk is 135 years old.

You sure it’s silk and not joe Lewis?